NBA Grind Down: Sunday, April 24th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
San Antonio Spurs at Memphis Grizzlies – 1:00 PM
- Vegas Line – San Antonio -13, 183 Over/Under
- San Antonio Spurs Proj. Starters – Parker-Green-Leonard-Aldridge-Duncan
- Memphis Grizzlies Proj. Starters – Farmar-Allen-Carter-Barnes-Randolph
| San Antonio Spurs | Memphis Grizzlies | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 183.0 | | Vegas Total | 183.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -13.0 | Vegas Sprd | 13.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 98.0 | Team Proj. | 85.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.70 | Team Pace | 95.70 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj. Starter | Tony Parker | Danny Green | Kawhi Leonard | LaMarcus Aldridge | Tim Duncan | Proj. Starter | Jordan Farmar | Tony Allen | Vince Carter | Matt Barnes | Zach Randolph | |
| Opp. Season | 12 | 5 | 11 | 18 | 5 | Opp. Season | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | |
| Last 3 Weeks | 22 | 11 | 5 | 30 | 21 | Last 3 Weeks | 19 | 2 | 9 | 4 | 3 | |
San Antonio Spurs
Record: 67-15 — Road: 27-14 — Last 10: 6-4
- San Antonio Spurs Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 103.5 (10 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 98.0 (6 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: -5.5 (6 of 8)
- Memphis Grizzlies Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.3 (11 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.4 (19 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.6 (23 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 196.0 (9 of 30)
The Spurs are only a game away from advancing to the second round of the playoffs. They are a veteran team that knows the importance of getting those extra few days of rest. They are listed as 13-point favorites today, but are only projected to score 98 points. The main question with the Spurs is how many minutes are the starters going to see? If the game stays close, they will see a full complement. However, if the Spurs build a big lead early, we could see their starters play less than 30 minutes. With three other games to target, I’m going to limit my exposure to the first game of the day. Tony Parker, Tim Duncan, and LaMarcus Aldridge are fine GPP plays, but there are better targets for cash games.
- Injury Watch:
NO INJURIES
Elite Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
| Kawhi Leonard | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$9,200 | Salary:$8,800 | ||||
| Position:SF | Position:SF | ||||
| FP/Min:1.13 | FP/Min:1.20 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 33.1 | 35.5 | 2.4 | 37.5 | 4.4 |
| FPPG (FD) | 37.5 | 42.4 | 4.9 | 42.4 | 4.9 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 22.3 | 23.8 | 1.5 | 24.8 | 2.6 |
Leonard is coming off of a monster fantasy outing in Game 3. He scored 61 fantasy points in 42 minutes of action. While that outing was promising, he only scored 35 and 27 fantasy points in the first two games of the season. The one plus with Leonard is that the game is being played in Memphis, so his minutes are slightly more secure. I would have him listed as an elite play, but there are a number of viable plays at small forward today.
Memphis Grizzlies
Record: 42-40 — Home: 26-15 — Last 10: 1-9
- Memphis Grizzlies Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 99.1 (24 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 85.0 (8 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: -14.1 (8 of 8)
- San Antonio Spurs Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 92.9 (1 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 96.6 (1 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 3.4 (4 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 180.6 (1 of 30)
The Grizzlies put up a fight in Game 3, but still fell short. They are now one loss away from their season being over. It will be interesting to see how they respond today, because they will likely either come out swinging or have a letdown. They are a difficult team to trust from a fantasy perspective, especially given the matchup. During the regular season, the Spurs were ranked first in points allowed per game and defensive efficiency. The Grizzlies have the lowest team total tonight at only 85 points. Jordan Farmar and Xavier Munford are decent punt options at point guard, but with four games on the schedule, you don’t have to look that cheap today.
- Injury Watch:
NO INJURIES
Elite Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
| Zach Randolph | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$6,800 | Salary:$6,300 | ||||
| Position:PF | Position:PF | ||||
| FP/Min:0.94 | FP/Min:0.99 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 29.7 | 29.9 | 0.2 | 28.9 | -0.8 |
| FPPG (FD) | 27.8 | 30.5 | 2.7 | 30.0 | 2.2 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 21.3 | 28.7 | 7.5 | 29.4 | 8.1 |
The Grizzlies are running their offense through Randolph and even though his efficiency hasn’t been great in this series, he should see all of the minutes that he can handle tonight. He has scored 32 and 31 fantasy points in the last two games and should be able to post a similar fantasy outing today in a must-win game for the Grizzlies.
Golden State Warriors at Houston Rockets – 3:30 PM
- Vegas Line – Golden State -9, 217.5 Over/Under
- Golden State Warriors Proj. Starters –
- Houston Rockets Proj. Starters – Beverley-Harden-Ariza-Motiejunas-Howard
| Golden State Warriors | Houston Rockets | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 217.5 | | Vegas Total | 217.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -9.0 | Vegas Sprd | 9.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 113.3 | Team Proj. | 104.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 101.60 | Team Pace | 100.10 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj. Starter | Stephen Curry | Klay Thompson | Harrison Barnes | Draymond Green | Andrew Bogut | Proj. Starter | Patrick Beverley | James Harden | Trevor Ariza | Donatas Motiejunas | Dwight Howard | |
| Opp. Season | 13 | 23 | 29 | 29 | 18 | Opp. Season | 20 | 9 | 15 | 17 | 19 | |
| Last 3 Weeks | 14 | 23 | 27 | 6 | 17 | Last 3 Weeks | 10 | 10 | 25 | 28 | 6 | |
Golden State Warriors
Record: 73-9 — Road: 34-7 — Last 10: 8-2
- Golden State Warriors Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 114.9 (1 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 113.3 (1 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: -1.7 (2 of 8)
- Houston Rockets Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.4 (25 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.6 (20 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.5 (22 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 208.8 (25 of 30)
The Warriors failed to pick up a win in Game 3, which put more pressure of Stephen Curry to return from his ankle injury. He is expected to play today, but I wonder if they would have kept him out if they were up 3-0 in the series. The Warriors are 9-point favorites in a very important game for both teams. With Curry back in the mix, look for the rest of the Warriors to resume their usual roles in the offense. As for Curry himself, I have a hard time trusting him in cash games, as he could easily aggravate the ankle injury. He does make a great GPP play though, especially given how low his ownership should be. Harrison Barnes and Andre Igoudala are both fine value plays at small forward.
- Injury Watch:
Stephen Curry (Probable)
Elite Plays
| Draymond Green | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$8,800 | Salary:$9,200 | ||||
| Position:PF | Position:PF | ||||
| FP/Min:1.13 | FP/Min:1.23 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 34.7 | 35.8 | 1.1 | 34.2 | -0.5 |
| FPPG (FD) | 39.1 | 41.0 | 1.9 | 34.1 | -5.0 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 16.0 | 15.5 | -0.5 | 14.8 | -1.2 |
Is Stephen Curry going to be 100% today? No one knows. In fact, Curry himself may not even know how his ankle is going to hold up. Even with Curry back in the mix, Green is still an elite play. He can fill up all areas of the stat sheet and the Rocket are one of the worst teams in the NBA at defending power forwards.
Secondary Plays
| Klay Thompson | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$7,600 | Salary:$7,400 | ||||
| Position:SG | Position:SG | ||||
| FP/Min:0.93 | FP/Min:1.01 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 33.3 | 35.5 | 2.2 | 34.8 | 1.5 |
| FPPG (FD) | 30.9 | 29.2 | -1.7 | 28.8 | -2.2 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 22.3 | 20.3 | -2.0 | 18.9 | -3.4 |
Thompson is a boom or bust play at shooting guard today in Game 4. His range of possible outcomes varies greatly, which makes him a better GPP target than a cash game play. You can still use him in cash games given the matchup against the Rockets, but he is not as consistent as some of the other options at his position.
Houston Rockets
Record: 41-41 — Home: 23-18 — Last 10: 6-4
- Houston Rockets Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 106.5 (4 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 104.3 (2 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: -2.3 (4 of 8)
- Golden State Warriors Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.1 (19 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 100.9 (4 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 2.3 (8 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 201.8 (17 of 30)
The Rockets picked up a win in Game 3 thanks to a go-ahead jump shot by James Harden. The best part was the reaction of the Rockets’ bench. Dwight Howard, Terrence Jones, and Corey Brewer didn’t look too pleased that the shot went in. The Rockets are a dysfunctional team that will get blown up in the offseason. They are listed as 9-point underdogs today and that seems a bit low with Stephen Curry expected back. Trevor Ariza is a viable GPP play here, but James Harden and Dwight Howard are the only players that I am looking at in cash games.
- Injury Watch:
NO INJURIES
Elite Plays
| James Harden | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$10,400 | Salary:$10,800 | ||||
| Position:SG | Position:SG | ||||
| FP/Min:1.25 | FP/Min:1.36 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 38.1 | 40.5 | 2.4 | 38.1 | 0.0 |
| FPPG (FD) | 47.7 | 50.0 | 2.3 | 47.8 | 0.2 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 27.4 | 27.7 | 0.2 | 29.3 | 1.9 |
Harden is my favorite superstar to pay up for today, as he is playing at home in what is expected to be the highest scoring game of the night. Harden is coming off of a 58 fantasy point outing in Game 3 and he should see 42-44 minutes of action again in Game 4. While LeBron James is also in a great spot, Harden is the superstar to pay up for in this slate.
Secondary Plays
| Dwight Howard | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$6,800 | Salary:$6,500 | ||||
| Position:C | Position:C | ||||
| FP/Min:1.02 | FP/Min:1.10 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 32.1 | 28.2 | -3.9 | 29.7 | -2.4 |
| FPPG (FD) | 32.9 | 27.0 | -5.9 | 31.3 | -1.6 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 14.5 | 12.2 | -2.4 | 13.3 | -1.2 |
Howard doesn’t seem to care that this is a contract season. While he has played pretty well while on the floor, he looks disengaged and he doesn’t seem to care about his team or winning. I know that’s not a ringing endorsement, but at least he has averaged 32 fantasy points per game in this series. He makes a nice pivot off of Al Horford in GPPs.
Atlanta Hawks at Boston Celtics – 6:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Boston -1.5, 204 Over/Under
- Atlanta Hawks Proj. Starters – Teague-Korver-Goudelock-Millsap-Goudelock
- Boston Celtics Proj. Starters – Thomas-Turner-Crowder-Jerebko-Johnson
| Atlanta Hawks | Boston Celtics | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 204.0 | | Vegas Total | 204.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 1.5 | Vegas Sprd | -1.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 101.3 | Team Proj. | 102.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 99.40 | Team Pace | 101.10 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj. Starter | Jeff Teague | Kyle Korver | Kent Bazemore | Paul Millsap | Al Horford | Proj. Starter | Isaiah Thomas | Evan Turner | Jae Crowder | Jonas Jerebko | Amir Johnson | |
| Opp. Season | 3 | 10 | 23 | 27 | 24 | Opp. Season | 8 | 19 | 14 | 12 | 22 | |
| Last 3 Weeks | 17 | 17 | 23 | 27 | 12 | Last 3 Weeks | 24 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 23 | |
Atlanta Hawks
Record: 48-34 — Road: 21-20 — Last 10: 6-4
- Atlanta Hawks Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 102.8 (12 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 101.3 (5 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: -1.6 (1 of 8)
- Boston Celtics Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.5 (13 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 100.9 (4 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.1 (20 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 199.8 (12 of 30)
The Hawks put up a fight in Game 3, but eventually fell short and now hold a 2-1 game lead in the series. If the Celtics can pick up another win today, I fully expect this series to go seven games. The Hawks come into tonight’s game as 1.5-point underdogs. They are projected to score 101.3 points, which gives them the fifth highest team total and the highest projected point differential. Al Horford, Kent Bazemore, and Dennis Schroder are all on the injury report, but all three are expected to play.
- Injury Watch:
Al Horford (Probable)
Kent Bazemore (Probable)
Dennis Schroder (Probable)
Elite Plays
| Al Horford | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$7,900 | Salary:$8,000 | ||||
| Position:C | Position:C | ||||
| FP/Min:1.00 | FP/Min:1.07 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 32.1 | 32.3 | 0.2 | 32.5 | 0.4 |
| FPPG (FD) | 32.3 | 32.3 | 0.0 | 34.1 | 1.8 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 17.9 | 18.4 | 0.5 | 18.7 | 0.7 |
Horford has been the Hawks’ best player in this series, averaging 41 fantasy points in 35 minutes per game. The Celtics have done a nice job of matching up with Paul Millsap, but it has led to some big outings for Al Horford. Boston has struggled to defend centers all season and they are one of the worst rebounding teams in the NBA.
| Kent Bazemore | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$5,600 | Salary:$5,700 | ||||
| Position:SF | Position:SF | ||||
| FP/Min:0.83 | FP/Min:0.91 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 27.8 | 28.3 | 0.5 | 27.6 | -0.2 |
| FPPG (FD) | 23.1 | 28.3 | 5.3 | 34.6 | 11.5 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 16.1 | 16.9 | 0.8 | 20.5 | 4.4 |
Bazemore has now had three strong games in this series, but yet people still refuse to play him. For whatever reason, his ownership is way lower than it should be. He deserves to be considered as an elite play tonight, as his minutes and fantasy production are both trending upward.
Secondary Plays
| Paul Millsap | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$8,200 | Salary:$8,100 | ||||
| Position:PF | Position:PF | ||||
| FP/Min:1.15 | FP/Min:1.22 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 32.7 | 33.7 | 1.0 | 34.7 | 2.0 |
| FPPG (FD) | 37.5 | 44.0 | 6.6 | 44.7 | 7.3 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 19.9 | 19.4 | -0.5 | 19.5 | -0.4 |
Millsap has yet to reach value in this series. He has scored 35, 17, and 25 fantasy points in the first three games. Even though power forward is the thinnest position on the board, Millsap is no longer a must play.
| Jeff Teague | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$7,000 | Salary:$6,900 | ||||
| Position:PG | Position:PG | ||||
| FP/Min:0.98 | FP/Min:1.08 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 28.5 | 30.4 | 1.9 | 29.4 | 0.9 |
| FPPG (FD) | 28.0 | 33.3 | 5.3 | 30.2 | 2.2 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 22.4 | 25.3 | 2.9 | 23.5 | 1.1 |
Teague is a borderline elite play tonight, but I expect his ownership to be low. For that reason, I see him as more of a GPP play in Game 4. In the first three games of the series, Teague has scored 46, 25, and 33 fantasy points. With tonight’s game expected to stay close, I am projecting him to play around 35 minutes.
Boston Celtics
Record: 48-34 — Home: 28-13 — Last 10: 6-4
- Boston Celtics Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 105.7 (5 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 102.8 (3 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: -3.0 (5 of 8)
- Atlanta Hawks Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.2 (6 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 98.8 (2 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.4 (28 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 200.0 (13 of 30)
The Celtics picked up a much needed win in Game 3 and can now tie the series up with a win tonight. They are listed as 1.5-point favorites at home against the Hawks in what should be one of the best games to target for fantasy production. The Celtics are projected to score 102.8 points, which gives them the third highest team total on the board. Avery Bradley and Kelly Olynyk are both expected to miss tonight’s game. Isaiah Thomas was facing a possible suspension, but it sounds like the league won’t take any action for his hit on Dennis Schroder.
- Injury Watch:
Avery Bradley (Out)
Kelly Olynyk (Doubtful)
Elite Plays
| Isaiah Thomas | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$8,300 | Salary:$8,200 | ||||
| Position:PG | Position:PG | ||||
| FP/Min:1.08 | FP/Min:1.17 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 32.2 | 30.3 | -1.9 | 29.1 | -3.1 |
| FPPG (FD) | 34.8 | 31.8 | -3.0 | 32.5 | -2.3 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 26.3 | 28.2 | 1.9 | 27.1 | 0.7 |
Thomas broke out in Game 3, scoring 42 actual points and 49 fantasy points. He was on fire all game and hopefully he can carry some of that into tonight’s contest. The Hawks have been tough on point guards this season, but his minutes boost in the postseason more than makes up for the bad matchup.
| Evan Turner | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$5,600 | Salary:$6,200 | ||||
| Position:SG | Position:SG | ||||
| FP/Min:0.84 | FP/Min:0.91 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 28.0 | 31.9 | 3.9 | 29.1 | 1.1 |
| FPPG (FD) | 23.4 | 25.6 | 2.2 | 23.9 | 0.5 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 16.2 | 16.6 | 0.4 | 17.9 | 1.7 |
Turner is close to a must play tonight. With Avery Bradley out, he should see 33-35 minutes and his price is still a little too cheap given his new role in the offense. In the first three games of the series, he has scored 30, 23, and 37 fantasy points.
| Jonas Jerebko | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$4,000 | Salary:$3,300 | ||||
| Position:PF | Position:PF | ||||
| FP/Min:0.70 | FP/Min:0.77 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 15.1 | 18.1 | 3.0 | 18.7 | 3.6 |
| FPPG (FD) | 10.5 | 13.0 | 2.4 | 11.9 | 1.3 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 11.3 | 10.3 | -1.0 | 9.1 | -2.2 |
Jerebko was announced as a late starter the other night and he handsomely rewarded those that decided to take a chance on him. He played 37 minutes and scored 33 fantasy points. While I don’t expect a repeat performance tonight, he is still the top value play on the board.
Secondary Plays
| Jae Crowder | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$5,600 | Salary:$6,100 | ||||
| Position:SF | Position:SF | ||||
| FP/Min:0.83 | FP/Min:0.89 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 31.6 | 29.3 | -2.3 | 28.0 | -3.6 |
| FPPG (FD) | 26.3 | 23.7 | -2.6 | 18.7 | -7.6 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 16.1 | 17.6 | 1.5 | 15.7 | -0.4 |
Crowder is playing at less than 100%, but he should play around 35 minutes again tonight. His shot has been off so far in this series, but he has still managed to average over 25 fantasy points per game.
Cleveland Cavaliers at Detroit Pistons – 8:30 PM
- Vegas Line – Cleveland -6.5, 198.5 Over/Under
- Cleveland Cavaliers Proj. Starters – Irving-Smith-James-Love-Thompson
- Detroit Pistons Proj. Starters – Jackson-Caldwell-Pope-Harris-Morris-Drummond
| Cleveland Cavaliers | Detroit Pistons | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 198.5 | | Vegas Total | 198.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -6.5 | Vegas Sprd | 6.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 102.5 | Team Proj. | 96.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.50 | Team Pace | 97.40 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj. Starter | Kyrie Irving | J.R. Smith | LeBron James | Kevin Love | Tristan Thompson | Proj. Starter | Reggie Jackson | Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | Tobias Harris | Marcus Morris | Andre Drummond | |
| Opp. Season | 14 | 6 | 3 | 11 | 11 | Opp. Season | 17 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| Last 3 Weeks | 28 | 4 | 2 | 14 | 22 | Last 3 Weeks | 21 | 5 | 24 | 9 | 11 | |
Cleveland Cavaliers
Record: 57-25 — Road: 24-17 — Last 10: 6-4
- Cleveland Cavaliers Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 104.3 (8 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 102.5 (4 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: -1.8 (3 of 8)
- Detroit Pistons Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.4 (12 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.4 (13 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 3.8 (2 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 195.0 (8 of 30)
The Cavaliers are looking for the series sweep tonight against the Pistons. They are up 3-0 with a chance to get some extra rest before the second round. The Cavaliers are listed as 6.5-point favorites tonight in Game 4. They are projected to score 102.5 points, which gives them the fourth highest team total and the third highest projected point differential on the board. J.R. Smith and Tristan Thompson are both nice GPP plays here, but the big three in Cleveland are the best targets in DFS.
- Injury Watch:
NO INJURIES
Elite Plays
| LeBron James | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$10,300 | Salary:$10,200 | ||||
| Position:SF | Position:SF | ||||
| FP/Min:1.26 | FP/Min:1.36 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 35.6 | 35.8 | 0.2 | 33.0 | -2.6 |
| FPPG (FD) | 45.0 | 51.5 | 6.5 | 43.6 | -1.4 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 27.4 | 25.8 | -1.6 | 21.9 | -5.4 |
James has yet to have a monster game in this series, but he is averaging 45 fantasy points per contest. He should be able to post a similar outing tonight in what is expected to be a close game throughout.
| Kevin Love | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$7,500 | Salary:$7,900 | ||||
| Position:PF | Position:PF | ||||
| FP/Min:1.03 | FP/Min:1.13 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 31.5 | 29.3 | -2.2 | 27.3 | -4.2 |
| FPPG (FD) | 32.4 | 33.1 | 0.7 | 31.9 | -0.5 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 19.9 | 22.3 | 2.3 | 22.9 | 3.0 |
Love has taken on a huge role in the Cavaliers’ offense. They are getting the ball to him early and often, which makes him an elite play in all league formats. The Pistons have a stout defense overall, but they do not match up well against Love. Tobias Harris and Marcus Morris are both a little too small to keep him off the block down low.
| Kyrie Irving | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$7,700 | Salary:$8,000 | ||||
| Position:PG | Position:PG | ||||
| FP/Min:0.98 | FP/Min:1.06 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 31.5 | 34.2 | 2.7 | 34.0 | 2.5 |
| FPPG (FD) | 30.8 | 35.9 | 5.2 | 35.6 | 4.9 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 25.7 | 27.4 | 1.7 | 25.6 | -0.1 |
Irving has scored at least 22 actual points in each of the first three games in this series. He hasn’t added a lot of peripheral statistics in the process, but he is certainly capable of doing so. He is an elite play again tonight, although dollar for dollar I slightly prefer Isaiah Thomas and Reggie Jackson.
Secondary Plays
NONE
Detroit Pistons
Record: 44-38 — Home: 26-15 — Last 10: 6-4
- Detroit Pistons Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 102.0 (19 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 96.0 (7 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: -6.0 (7 of 8)
- Cleveland Cavaliers Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.3 (4 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.3 (10 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 3.5 (3 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 190.0 (4 of 30)
The Pistons are in a win or stay home situation tonight. This could be the final game of their season. They are sizable underdogs at home, but the Palace should be rocking for this one. I expect Detroit to be able to keep this game close, which would be good for the minutes and fantasy production for the starters on both teams. Once again, I don’t mind looking to Andre Drummond in a tournament, but Al Horford has been a much stronger play in the postseason.
- Injury Watch:
NO INJURIES
Elite Plays
| Reggie Jackson | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$7,000 | Salary:$7,000 | ||||
| Position:PG | Position:PG | ||||
| FP/Min:1.00 | FP/Min:1.09 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 30.7 | 31.1 | 0.4 | 31.7 | 1.0 |
| FPPG (FD) | 30.7 | 31.3 | 0.5 | 38.6 | 7.9 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 25.8 | 27.9 | 2.1 | 30.8 | 5.1 |
Jackson’s price has come up a bit across the industry, but he is still my favorite point guard when you factor in salaries. He has played well this entire series and he should see 35+ minutes tonight in an elimination game against the Cavaliers.
Secondary Plays
| Marcus Morris | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$5,700 | Salary:$5,400 | ||||
| Position:SF | Position:SF | ||||
| FP/Min:0.68 | FP/Min:0.74 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 35.7 | 36.1 | 0.4 | 33.4 | -2.3 |
| FPPG (FD) | 24.4 | 28.2 | 3.8 | 19.8 | -4.6 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 15.9 | 16.0 | 0.1 | 14.7 | -1.3 |
Morris has been surprisingly consistent in this series, scoring 31, 22, and 23 fantasy points in the first three games. His minutes are as secure as anyone’s and his price is still reasonable on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
| Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$5,600 | Salary:$5,500 | ||||
| Position:SG | Position:SG | ||||
| FP/Min:0.64 | FP/Min:0.70 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 36.7 | 36.1 | -0.6 | 33.5 | -3.2 |
| FPPG (FD) | 23.4 | 20.6 | -2.8 | 18.2 | -5.3 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 15.9 | 14.9 | -1.0 | 14.0 | -1.9 |
KCP has scored at least 27 fantasy points in every game so far in this series. Not even Klay Thompson has had that high of a floor. KCP is a strong play again tonight, as he should see all of the minutes that he can handle.
