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NBA Grind Down: Sunday, December 13th

by Ryan138 Last Updated 2015-12-15 20:14:21

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

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Minnesota at Phoenix – 03:30 PM

Minnesota Phoenix
minnesotanba Vegas Total 210 phoenixnba Vegas Total 210
Vegas Sprd 5.0 Vegas Sprd -5.0
Team Proj. 102.8 Team Proj. 107.8
Team Pace 98.80 Team Pace 101.87
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Ricky Rubio Kevin Martin Andrew Wiggins Kevin Garnett Karl-Anthony Towns Proj Starter Eric Bledsoe Brandon Knight P.J. Tucker Jon Leuer Alex Len
Opp. Season 27 24 27 8 4 Opp. Season 16 10 7 9 15
Opp. Last 7 18 23 23 23 9 Opp. Season 11 18 8 20 24

Minnesota (Record: 9-13 Away: 6-4)

Phoenix Suns Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.2 (26 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.1 (20 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 0.8 (12 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 200.7 (20 of 30)

The Phoenix Suns are a fast paced team (102.1 Pace) that are in the bottom third of the league in points allowed, fantasy points allowed and defensive efficiency. The return of Tyson Chandler should help the inside defense in tonight’s game for the Suns, but the Twolves still have an implied team total of 102.8 points for third highest on the slate.

Ricky Rubio is in a decent spot here as the pace of play should be high here with this game total being the highest of the day by far at 210.5. He has disappointed a bit recently, only hitting 35+ fantasy points once in his last five starts, but the upside is there in this matchup. Andrew Wiggins is in play as well today. He is playing 35+ minutes and, like Rubio, has not had any big fantasy games lately, which has kept his price down across the industry. Karl-Anthony Towns has been better (34.3, 48.3, 29, 45.4 in his last for games respectively), but the return of Chandler hurts his fantasy appeal and is only a secondary play. Lastly, Gorgui Dieng may be a nice source of value from this game along with Kevin Martin. Both have some risk attached, but Dieng may get the softer inside matchup assuming Chandler starts today. Martin on the other hand has had two very solid games in a row, but was so bad prior to these two outings that he is still a tournament play only until he shows consistency over a period of time.

Elite Plays

Ricky Rubio
FD: $7,100 — PG
DK: $6,900 — PG
Usage: 20.7

Andrew Wiggins
FD: $6,800 — SF
DK: $6,800 — SG
Usage: 26.3

Secondary Plays

Karl-Anthony Towns
FD: $7,300 — C
DK: $6,800 — SG
Usage: 22.0

Gorgui Dieng
FD: $4,600 — C
DK: $5,100 — C
Usage: 15.6

Kevin Martin
FD: $4,400 — SG
DK: $4,200 — SG
Usage: 21.5

Phoenix (Record: 10-14 Home: 6-6)

Minnesota Timberwolves Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.9 (20 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.5 (15 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 2.3 (8 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 194.3 (12 of 30)

The Timberwolves have been an average defensive team so far this season. This game will be the most fantasy friendly on the slate and the Phoenix Suns have the highest implied team total at 107.8, which is more than two points higher than their season average (105.2).

The return of Tyson Chandler throws a bit of a wrench into the projected minutes of two of the better value plays recently in Alex Len and Jon Leuer. While it is tough to play either Len or Chandler today due to some lack of playing time knowledge, Jon Leuer is much less affected by his return and continues to be a solid value play, especially on Fanduel, where his price has not risen much. The two guys that are always in play for the Suns are Brandon Knight and Eric Bledsoe. Both are strong plays in a solid matchup against the Minnesota backcourt and Knight gets a slight bump due to his cheaper price across the industry.

Elite Plays

Brandon Knight
FD: $7,700 — PG
DK: $7,500 — PG
Usage: 25.8

Eric Bledsoe
FD: $8,800 — SG
DK: $8,400 — SG
Usage: 28.0

Secondary Plays

Jon Leuer
Elite Play on Fanduel
FD: $4,600 — PF
DK: $5,700 — PF
Usage: 17

Philadelphia at Toronto – 06:00 PM

Philadelphia Toronto
philadelphianba Vegas Total 193 torontonba Vegas Total 193
Vegas Sprd 12.0 Vegas Sprd -12.0
Team Proj. 90.5 Team Proj. 102.5
Team Pace 99.37 Team Pace 96.08
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Kendall Marshall Isaiah Canaan Robert Covington Nerlens Noel Jahlil Okafor Proj Starter Kyle Lowry DeMar DeRozan Terrence Ross Luis Scola Bismack Biyombo
Opp. Season 3 21 8 12 12 Opp. Season 15 3 30 29 24
Opp. Last 7 1 24 15 8 2 Opp. Season 20 1 9 30 28

Philadelphia (Record: 1-23 Away: 0-13)

Toronto Raptors Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.8 (4 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 100.7 (12 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 2.5 (7 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 189.8 (5 of 30)

The Raptors are showing some consistency in their defense so far this year. They are ranked in the top five in the league in points and fantasy points allowed, while keeping a solid rebounding differential and ranked 12th in defensive efficiency. The 76ers have the lowest implied team total of the slate at only 90.5.

The backcourt situation for the 76ers will be a complete mess for this game as Wroten will be suiting up. That means all the point guards that they play will take minutes away from each other and none should probably play more than 25 in this tough matchup. The only two guys worth a look today are Robert Covington and Jahlil Okafor who are likely to get minutes in the high 20s/low 30s and should reach value as their prices have come down a bit from where they were a few weeks ago. Both are risky plays and avoiding this team all together is not a bad option as the blowout is in play.

Edit: With the news that Wroten will sit again and Marshall will be limited to 16 minutes, Canaan and McConnell are going to get a few more minutes, which should bring both closer to 30 minutes tonight and does put them into value play consideration, but in a tough matchup.

Elite Plays

None

Secondary Plays

Robert Covington
FD: $6,500 — SF
DK: $7,000 — SF
Usage: 22.2

Jahlil Okafor
FD: $6,300 — C
DK: $6,400 — C
Usage: 25.6

Toronto (Record: 15-9 Home: 7-4)

Philadelphia 76ers Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.0 (24 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.3 (21 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -5.2 (30 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 207.5 (26 of 30)

The Raptors have nothing to worry about on the defensive end today as the 76ers are on of the worst defensive teams going in the NBA. They are in the bottom third of the league in all four of the above categories and this Raptors squad has a team total of 102.5, which is more than two points higher than their season average (100.1). The problem here is the blowout potential since the Raptors are large, twelve point favorites.

Even though the blowout is in play, with only four games we are going to be forced to use these Raptors in both cash and tournament plays. While Jonas Valanciunas and DeMarre Carroll have been out with injuries, it has really not opned up to much in terms of fantasy value other than the one solid game from Terrence Ross, a few games back. He does feature some decent upside against this poor 76ers defense and could play some garbage time minutes regardless of score. He is a risky, tournament value play only today. The same could be said for guys like Luis Scola, Patrick Patterson and Bismack Biyombo. They will all play minutes close to 30, but they take a lot of value away from each other and none of them really stick out as a clear value today. Yet, one of these guys could help someone win a tournament tonight with a solid performance.

The two guys that are clearly in play are DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry. I give the slight edge to Lowry as he can do so much more on the court than just score, but his price clearly reflects that and going the cheaper route in this matchup with DeRozan may be the better use of salary.

Elite Plays

Kyle Lowry
FD: $9,000 — SG
DK: $8,800 — PG
Usage: 26.9

DeMar DeRozan
FD: $7,600 — SG
DK: $7,100 — SG
Usage: 27.2

Secondary Plays

With the blowout in play, taking guys like Terrence Ross, Patrick Patterson may be a better tournament play than the starting value that they have. All have taken fantasy potential away from each other over the last few games though. Of course this is assuming that Carroll, Jonas and Lucas Nogueira are all out. Corey Joseph is another guy that would benefit greatly from the blowout, but is also in play regardless as his minutes have been in the low-30s over the last eight games.

Memphis at Miami – 06:00 PM

Memphis Miami
memphisnba Vegas Total 190 miaminba Vegas Total 190
Vegas Sprd 4.0 Vegas Sprd -4.0
Team Proj. 93.0 Team Proj. 97.0
Team Pace 96.94 Team Pace 96.09
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Mike Conley Tony Allen Jeff Green Zach Randolph Proj Starter Goran Dragic Dwyane Wade Luol Deng Chris Bosh Hassan Whiteside
Opp. Season 2 4 25 3 11 Opp. Season 26 13 20 18 7
Opp. Last 7 13 27 28 4 15 Opp. Season 30 20 22 7 19

Memphis (Record: 13-11 Away: 7-6)

Miami Heat Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 93.6 (2 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 96.4 (2 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 0.6 (13 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 184.4 (3 of 30)

This game will look like the opposite type of Pace played from the Suns/Wolves game. This game has the lowest overall total of the slate at 190 as both teams play at a sub 97.0 Pace. The Grizzlies have a very tough matchup today against the Heat who are in the top three in points allowed, fantasy points allowed and defensive efficiency. The Grizzlies have a 93.0 implied team total, which is three points lower than their season average (96.0) and second lowest team total on the slate.

With only four games it is tough to completely throw out any games on the slate. While they may not be in the best position, Marc Gasol may be worth a look. He has put up 32+ fantasy points in six of his last seven games, yet does have a tough inside matchup against Whiteside.

Elite Plays

None

Secondary Plays

Marc Gasol
FD: $8,000 — C
DK: $7,300 — C
Usage: 22.2

Miami (Record: 12-9 Home: 10-4)

Memphis Grizzlies Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.3 (14 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.7 (24 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.3 (22 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 197.3 (16 of 30)

The Grizzlies have not lived up to their usual defensively sound ways of the past few years. They are middle of the road in the league in points and fantasy points allowed and they are ranked 24th in defensive efficiency. With that said, this game should be played at a very slow pace and the Heat are only projected to score 97 points.

With Luol Deng back and playing 34 minutes in the last game, it really takes any value away from this Heat team that was there during his injury. Whiteside has become a very difficult fantasy play recently as he has been playing minutes in the mid to low 20’s and his fantasy totals have reflected it. The only two players worth a mention on this Miami team are Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade. Both are priced in the low 7k range and are putting up fantasy performances that just about meet that value on a consistent basis. They are not high upside plays by any means, but are the key offensive cogs on this team and should come close to value.

Elite Plays

None

Secondary Plays

Dwyane Wade
FD: $7,300 — SG
DK: $7,000 — SG
Usage: 30.6

Chris Bosh
FD: $7,600 — PF
DK: $7,200 — PF
Usage: 21.8

Utah at Oklahoma City – 07:00 PM

Utah Oklahoma City
utahnba Vegas Total 202 oklahomacitynba Vegas Total 202
Vegas Sprd 9.0 Vegas Sprd -9.0
Team Proj. 96.5 Team Proj. 105.5
Team Pace 94.74 Team Pace 99.58
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Raul Neto Rodney Hood Gordon Hayward Derrick Favors Derrick Favors Proj Starter Russell Westbrook Andre Roberson Kevin Durant Serge Ibaka Steven Adams
Opp. Season 17 14 9 14 6 Opp. Season 7 2 13 5 2
Opp. Last 7 21 4 10 6 6 Opp. Season 15 2 26 5 5

Utah (Record: 10-11 Away: 5-6)

Oklahoma City Thunder Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.3 (18 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 100.0 (10 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 8.6 (1 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 194.1 (11 of 30)

This will be a very big Pace up game for the Utah Jazz as they play at one of the lowest tempos in the NBA (95.1 Pace). The Thunder have been an average to slightly above average defensive team this year so this relegates the big jump up in pace a bit for the Thunder. The Jazz are projected to score just 96.5 today as big underdogs against the Thunder in Oklahoma City.

With Gobert continuing to miss games, Derrick Favors steps into the role of the main guy inside for the Jazz. While he has not posted huge games other than the 54.1 against the Pacers, he does have some solid upside and should see his minutes in the 35 range as long as the game stays close. Gordon Hayward is a solid elite play today as his price has been a bit stagnant considering how well he has played recently and did just put up 35 fantasy points against this Thunder team on Friday. Due to the low slate of games, Trey Burke and Alec Burks are worth a mention as value plays, but their upside is limited due to the minutes they play.

Elite Plays

Gordon Hayward
FD: $7,100 — SF
DK: $7,400 — SF
Usage: 23.9

Derrick Favors
FD: $8,100 — PF
DK: $7,700 — PF
Usage: 21.8

Secondary Plays

Trey Burke
FD: $4,900 — PG
DK: $4,300 — PG
Usage: 23.4

Alec Burks
FD: $5,300 — SG
DK: $5,100 — SG
Usage: 25.2

Oklahoma City (Record: 15-8 Away: 10-3)

Utah Jazz Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.3 (3 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.1 (16 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 3.7 (5 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 183.2 (2 of 30)

The Jazz are not the same elite defensive squad with Rudy Gobert out of the lineup, but they still are one of the slowest paced teams in the NBA, which is going to affect the Thunder’s fantasy value. With that said, The Thunder have the second highest implied team total of the slate at 105.5, and are nine point favorites in this matchup.

If Friday’s game teaches us anything it is that Westbrook and Durant may be a bit overpriced for this matchup. Durant put up only 39 fantasy points in 37 minutes, while Westbrook put up 43 fantasy points in 35 minutes played. They cannot be ignored on such a small slate and both continue to have huge upside and are elite plays, but the matchup is tough and they are by no means must plays in this situation. Both are clearly in play, but are really the only guys we can trust on this Thunder team anymore that seems to have spread the minutes around the rest of the team.

Elite Plays

Russell Westbrook
FD: $10,700 — PG
DK: $10,300 — PG
Usage: 35.3

Kevin Durant
FD: $10,300 — SF
DK: $10,000 — SF
Usage: 28.4

Secondary Plays

None

About the Author

Ryan138
Ryan138

Ryan (Ryan138) is from Chicago and has been playing fantasy sports for over 10 years. He has been playing daily fantasy sports for over 2 years since he was introduced to Daily Joust in late 2010. In the last year, Ryan has risen into the Top 100 of the RotoGrinders leaderboards by playing at DraftDay, DraftKings and FanDuel in all the major sports.