NBA Grind Down: Sunday, January 31st
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
Chicago at L.A. Clippers – 03:30 PM
- Vegas Line – L.A. Clippers -5.5, 204 Over/Under
- Chicago Proj. Starters – Rose-Butler-McDermott-Mirotic-Gasol
- L.A. Clippers Proj. Starters – Paul-Redick-Johnson-Richard Mbah a Moute-Jordan
| Chicago | L.A. Clippers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 204 |  | Vegas Total | 204 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 5.5 | Vegas Sprd | -5.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 99.3 | Team Proj. | 104.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 98.69 | Team Pace | 98.26 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Derrick Rose | Jimmy Butler | Doug McDermott | Nikola Mirotic | Pau Gasol | Proj Starter | Chris Paul | J.J. Redick | Wesley Johnson | Luc Richard Mbah a Moute | DeAndre Jordan | |
| Opp. Season | 4 | 13 | 13 | 7 | 23 | Opp. Season | 26 | 15 | 24 | 17 | 22 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 2 | 11 | 6 | 16 | 8 | Opp. Season | 1 | 20 | 4 | 24 | 1 | |
Chicago (Record: 26-19 Away: 10-10)
Los Angeles Clippers Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.6 (13 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.1 (11 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.2 (28 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 194.5 (10 of 30)
The Clippers have been an average defensive squad this year. They are ranked between 10th and 13th in points allowed, defensive efficiency and fantasy points allowed this year. The first game of the day should be a solid, closely played matchup as the total is set at 204.5 and the spread is close at 5.5. The Bulls have a projected team total of 99.5, which is 2.1 points lower than their season average. Joakim Noah and Nikola MIrotic are both out, while Kirk Hinrich looks hopeful to play today.
Elite Plays
Pau is the other benefactor of the Bulls frontcourt injuries. Gasol has been extremely consistent over the last week of play. During that three game stretch, he has put up 46.9, 44.4 and 48 fantasy points. He should continue this run today against the Clippers and is a great play if you have the salary to pay up for the position.
FD — $8,900 — C
DK — $8,800 — C
Usage – 23.8
Min/Game — Season: 31.7
Secondary Plays
Butler tweaked his ankle in practice, but is still projected to play through the injury as he usually does. Butler is coming off a monster 55-point fantasy game against the Lakers and now has a solid matchup against the Clippers. Butler’s price continues to get higher, which takes him out of elite status due to a lot of solid value at the position today. Yet, he is the highest projected shooting guard on the all day slate and is a great tournament play today.
FD — $9,000 — SG
DK — $9,000 — SG
Usage – 24.1
Min/Game — Season: 38.1
Anytime the Bulls front court is hampered by injury, Taj Gibson becomes a solid play. That was clearly apparent in the first game without both Mirotic and Noah as Gibson played 36 minutes and had a 30.7 fantasy point effort. He is cheap and will play 35+ minutes against the 24th ranked power forward defense of the Clippers.
FD — $5,000 — PF
DK — $5,600 — PF
Usage – 14.4
Min/Game — Season: 25.7
L.A. Clippers (Record: 31-16 Home: 16-7)
Chicago Bulls Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.8 (13 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 100.3 (8 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 2.1 (8 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 206.4 (25 of 30)
The Bulls are well below average in fantasy points allowed (25th), but are the eighth ranked team in the NBA in defensive efficiency. The Clippers have a high projected team total in the matchup of 105, which is one point higher than their season average. Other than Blake Griffin, the Clippers look fully healthy as Paul Pierce should be back in the lineup after his day of rest on Friday.
Elite Plays
We are again faced with an all-day slate decision between some of the best point guards in the league. We have Curry, Lillard and Paul all playing today and we have some decent value in Goodwin as well as Walker playing the Lakers. With all that said, Paul is still a great play today as he has had to carry this Clippers offense with Blake out and that should continue again today against Rose and the 26th ranked defense against point guards of the Bulls. Paul’s floor is about 40 today, and he makes a solid tournament play today.
FD — $9,900 — PG
DK — $9,600 — PG
Usage – 27.9
Min/Game — Season: 32.4
Secondary Plays
The DFS industry has probably come to terms with the fact that Jordan is not going to go for 40+ fantasy points every game with Blake out. He is going to score around 35-40 each and every night as he has averaged 14.9 rebounds over his last eight games. There a few center options around his price point today, but Jordan is a very consistent option, but does not have the highest ceiling on the slate.
FD — $7,800 — C
DK — $7,700 — C
Usage – 13.0
Min/Game — Season: 33.4
Boston at Orlando – 06:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Boston -4.5, 204.5 Over/Under
- Boston Proj. Starters – Thomas-Turner-Crowder-Johnson-Olynyk
- Orlando Proj. Starters – Payton-Hezonja-Fournier-Frye-Vucevic
| Boston | Orlando | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 204 |  | Vegas Total | 204 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -4.5 | Vegas Sprd | 4.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 104.5 | Team Proj. | 100.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 101.15 | Team Pace | 96.23 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Isaiah Thomas | Evan Turner | Jae Crowder | Amir Johnson | Kelly Olynyk | Proj Starter | Elfrid Payton | Mario Hezonja | Evan Fournier | Channing Frye | Nikola Vucevic | |
| Opp. Season | 17 | 5 | 17 | 18 | 10 | Opp. Season | 1 | 8 | 23 | 26 | 14 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 6 | 14 | 30 | 26 | 17 | Opp. Season | 14 | 12 | 7 | 21 | 5 | |
Boston (Record: 27-21 Away: 13-11)
Orlando Magic Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.6 (7 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.2 (13 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.3 (14 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 199.0 (15 of 30)
The Magic have been an average defensive team this season as they are ranked 13th and 15th in defensive efficiency and fantasy points allowed respectively. This game’s total is set at 204.5 with a small 4.5 point spread in favor of the Celtics. The Celtics have a projected team total of 104.5 and look to be fully healthy for this game against the Magic.
Elite Plays
The Celtics starters actually did not play very well on Friday in route to a big win over the Magic. The bench scored a whopping 62 points, which meant the starters did not need to fill up the stat sheet. Bradley had by far his worst fantasy game in his last ten, but did still play 33 minutes. Anytime you get that amount of minutes for a guy at his price, he makes a solid cash game option.
FD — $5,600 — SG
DK — $5,700 — SG
Usage – 19.1
Min/Game — Season: 32.6
Secondary Plays
While he did not live up to expectations in the first game of this back to back on Friday, Thomas was not exactly needed as they ran the Magic out of the building with a nineteen-point victory. Thomas should rebound nicely today if he gets a full allotment of minutes, yet is still a secondary play today due to the amount of solid point guard options out there.
FD — $7,800 — PG
DK — $7,500 — PG
Usage – 29.0
Min/Game — Season: 32.3
Orlando (Record: 20-25 Home: 8-14)
Boston Celtics Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.4 (11 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 98.7 (2 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.4 (18 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 195.9 (11 of 30)
The Celtics have been an above average defensive team this year. They are ranked 11th in the league in both points allowed and fantasy points allowed, but are ranked second in the league in defensive efficiency. This was apparent in the game on Friday as the Magic could only muster up 94 real points. This game should be a bit closer as the Magic get to play on their home court and are projected to score exactly 100.0 points, which is slightly above their season average of 98.8.
Elite Plays
The only guy other than Gordon to come close to reaching value in the first matchup was Vucevic as he put up 14 points, 8 rebounds and 4 assists. He only played 29 minutes due to the blowout so if he could play his regular 35+ minutes today, he should easily hit value. Vucevic should come close to value and does have a high ceiling against the inside defense of the Celtics
FD — $7,700 — C
DK — $7,600 — C
Usage – 24.3
Min/Game — Season: 31.4
There has been a clear trend over the last week or so of solid value power forwards each and every night. The trend has also been pretty clear that is has been a winning strategy to play these value guys and spend other places as many have been consistent options. That rings true with Gordon whose price has stayed stagnate over at Fanduel at $4,500 and has average 23.75 fantasy points over his last four. If he can continue to get minutes close to 30, he should easily reach value and makes for a solid value play in all formats.
FD — $4,500 — PF
DK — $5,100 — SF
Usage – 15.9
Min/Game — Season: 20.3
Secondary Plays
Oladipo is another guy whose price has not gone up to much on Fanduel as he has stayed under 6k there. His matchup is tough against Bradley and that is why he is still just a secondary play, but he does have the upside for tournaments.
FD — $5,900 — SG
DK — $6,600 — SG
Usage – 22.7
Min/Game — Season: 30.4
Atlanta at Miami – 06:00 PM
- Vegas Line – No Lines Set for This Game Yet
- Atlanta Proj. Starters – Teague-Korver-Bazemore-Millsap-Horford
- Miami Proj. Starters – Dragic-Wade-Deng-Bosh-Andersen
| Atlanta | Miami | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total |  | Vegas Total | |||||||||
| Vegas Sprd | Vegas Sprd | |||||||||||
| Team Proj. | Team Proj. | |||||||||||
| Team Pace | 99.11 | Team Pace | 94.29 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Jeff Teague | Kyle Korver | Kent Bazemore | Paul Millsap | Al Horford | Proj Starter | Goran Dragic | Dwyane Wade | Luol Deng | Chris Bosh | Chris Andersen | |
| Opp. Season | 2 | 2 | 19 | 1 | 8 | Opp. Season | 11 | 24 | 12 | 12 | 27 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 5 | 2 | 23 | 4 | 16 | Opp. Season | 12 | 22 | 10 | 18 | 21 | |
Atlanta (Record: 27-21 Away: 12-13)
Miami Heat Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 95.6 (2 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 100.1 (5 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 0.7 (12 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 187.2 (4 of 30)
The Heat are one of the best defensive teams in the league. They are ranked in the top five in the league in points allowed, defensive efficiency and fantasy points allowed and are a very tough team to take players against. Paul Millsap is currently probable for this game and is likely to play today.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
If he plays today, he makes a decent tournament play as he should be lower owned than usual for his high price and tough matchup. Prior to the injury on Thursday, Millsap had at least 38 fantasy points in his last five starts.
FD — $8,400 — PF
DK — $8,200 — PF
Usage – 23.2
Min/Game — Season: 32.3
Miami (Record: 26-21 Home: 15-9)
Elite Plays
Bosh has been playing well without Whiteside in the lineup and has been more of a cash game, consistent option for daily fantasy rather than a high upside tournament lineup. He has scored between 32 and 37 fantasy points over the last four games and has seen minutes between 32 and 39 during that stretch as well. His price requires about a 37.5 effort to reach value and he should be able to hit that against the Hawks who are ranked 27th against power forwards.
FD — $7,700 — PF
DK — $7,700 — PF
Usage – 23.2
Min/Game — Season: 33.6
What has got into Wade lately? He has been on fire over his last three games averaging 47.6 fantasy points over that span. While we cannot expect that to continue, his price is solid and could make for another high upside play.
FD — $7,800 — SG
DK — $7,000 — SG
Usage – 30.6
Min/Game — Season: 30.3
Secondary Plays
If Whiteside continues to be out, Justise Winslow is a decent value play with the minutes he has been getting recently.
Phoenix at Dallas – 07:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Dallas -11, 201.5 Over/Under
- Phoenix Proj. Starters – Knight-Booker-Tucker-Leuer-Chandler
- Dallas Proj. Starters – Barea-Matthews-Parsons-Nowitzki-Pachulia
| Phoenix | Dallas | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 201 |  | Vegas Total | 201 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 11.0 | Vegas Sprd | -11.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 95.3 | Team Proj. | 106.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 100.42 | Team Pace | 96.72 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Brandon Knight | Devin Booker | P.J. Tucker | Jon Leuer | Tyson Chandler | Proj Starter | J.J. Barea | Wesley Matthews | Chandler Parsons | Dirk Nowitzki | Zaza Pachulia | |
| Opp. Season | 13 | 9 | 11 | 25 | 7 | Opp. Season | 29 | 27 | 30 | 16 | 6 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 7 | 25 | 14 | 14 | 26 | Opp. Season | 24 | 21 | 26 | 25 | 10 | |
Phoenix (Record: 14-34 Away: 4-21)
Dallas Mavericks Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.7 (17 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.1 (17 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.7 (25 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 199.5 (17 of 30)
The Mavericks have been a slightly below average team defensively as they are ranked 17th in the league in points allowed, defensive efficiency and fantasy points allowed per game. This game has some blow out potential as the Suns are the biggest underdogs on the slate as the spread is set at 11 points. The Suns currently have the lowest projected team total at 95.3, but continue to face injury problems. They will continue to be without all the guards in Bledsoe, Knight and Price, but it does appear that their big men are fully healthy, which takes all the frontcourt value out of play.
Elite Plays
The wheels finally fell off the value train that became Archie Goodwin. Yet, his price is still under 5k on Fanduel and he should continue to get minutes close to 30 even in a blowout situation. He is a great way to get some studs in your lineup and going back to the well in not a bad choice here even after the tough game.
FD — $4,800 — PG
DK — $5,800 — PG
Usage – 22.8
Min/Game — Season: 16.2
Both Booker and Goodwin had one of the worst combined first halves I have ever seen. I think they were at possibly negative points after the first 24 minutes of the game against the Knicks. Yet, Booker came back to score 21 real points and had a 24.5 fantasy point effort when that game finished. The one thing it showed was that Booker will get his minutes regardless of the outcome of the game and he isn’t afraid to launch up his shots. He is just 5k over at Fanduel still and although his price has come up, still makes a great value play at the position today.
FD — $5,000 — SG
DK — $5,500 — SG
Usage – 18.4
Min/Game — Season: 21.3
Secondary Plays
Tucker’s ownership will probably continue to rise as he is locked into 35 minutes per game for this Suns squad and he has average 28.4 fantasy points over his last four games. He is a great source of value at the small forward position and should be a lock for about 25-30 fantasy points today.
FD — $5,000 — SF
DK — $5,300 —SF
Usage – 12.0
Min/Game — Season: 28.8
Dallas (Record: 27-22 Home: 14-8)
Phoenix Suns Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.9 (29 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.6 (29 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.8 (17 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 206.6 (26 of 30)
The Suns have been a horrible defensive team this year as they are ranked 26th or worse in points allowed, fantasy point’s allowed and defensive efficiency. The Mavs are 11-point favorites, which means the blowout is in play today. That makes playing the Maverick players tough as they usually share the ball around a lot, and if they don’t get their full minutes, takes away even more fantasy potential today. Devin Harris is currently questionable to play. Zaza Pachulia did return to the lineup last game and played well in 32 minutes. I can see using him as a mid-priced center option today.
Elite Plays
Parsons is the one Maverick on our radar today. He has played great basketball lately and is averaging 24.3 real points over his last six games and has been over 32.5 fantasy points in each of those games during that span. His price has risen a bit, which is why he is just a secondary play today, but could be used for both cash and tournament games today.
FD — $6,700 — SF
DK — $6,900 —SF
Usage – 18.6
Min/Game — Season: 27.4
Secondary Plays
Zaza is a solid mid-priced center today against the interior defense of the Suns. His upside is a bit limited, but he should get you 30-35 fantasy points for a solid price today.
FD — $5,800 — C
DK — $6,300 —C
Usage – 17.5
Min/Game — Season: 29.3
Golden State at New York – 07:30 PM
- Vegas Line – Golden State -9.5, 216.5 Over/Under
- Golden State Proj. Starters – Curry-Thompson-Barnes-Green-Bogut
- New York Proj. Starters – Calderon-Afflalo-Anthony-Porzingis-Lopez
| Golden State | New York | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 216 |  | Vegas Total | 216 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -9.5 | Vegas Sprd | 9.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 113.0 | Team Proj. | 103.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 101.75 | Team Pace | 95.99 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Stephen Curry | Klay Thompson | Harrison Barnes | Draymond Green | Andrew Bogut | Proj Starter | Jose Calderon | Arron Afflalo | Carmelo Anthony | Kristaps Porzingis | Robin Lopez | |
| Opp. Season | 15 | 12 | 9 | 9 | 15 | Opp. Season | 19 | 6 | 15 | 13 | 18 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 28 | 15 | 29 | 2 | 3 | Opp. Season | 15 | 4 | 28 | 7 | 4 | |
Golden State (Record: 43-4 Away: 21-4)
New York Knicks Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.3 (14 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.5 (18 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.6 (16 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 196.0 (12 of 30)
The Knicks have been an average defensive squad this year. They are ranked between 12th and 18th in the league in all the above defensive categories. The blowout is clearly in play here today as the Warriors are ten point favorites with an overall total that is the highest of the day at 216.5. The Warriors are projected to score the most points today with a team total of 113.3 points, which is actually 1.8 points lower than their season average. Andre Iguodola will play today, while Festus Ezeli sat last game and is questionable to play today.
Elite Plays
One of those games that is hard to forget watching was the Curry performance in Madison Square Garden where he just launched shots from everywhere on the court and could not miss in route to a 54 point performance with 11 three point field goals. When I looked up how long ago that was, I was a bit surprised to see that was three years ago now. While that may have been a bit of a coming out party, Curry has not turned himself into the best player in the NBA and is an elite play anytime he takes the floor. While the blowout is in play today, Curry has shown he can put up 50 fantasy points in less than 30 minutes very easily and continues to be the top option at the point guard position.
FD — $11,100 — PG
DK — $10,700 —PG
Usage – 31.1
Min/Game — Season: 33.8
Green is a triple-double threat every time he takes the court as evidenced by his near one against Philadelphia on Friday. With Millsap having a tough matchup, Green is by far the highest projected power forward on the slate today.
FD — $8,800 — PF
DK — $8,800 —PF
Usage – 20.1
Min/Game — Season: 30.1
Secondary Plays
Klay looks like he is in one of those hot streaks as he has scored 33.9 and 55.5 fantasy points over his last two games and 77 real points during that streak. Curry will continue to look for the hot hand and if it continues, Klay could put up another 30 real point effort today at MSG.
FD — $7,000 — SG
DK — $7,300 —SG
Usage – 24.0
Min/Game — Season: 32.7
New York (Record: 23-26 Home: 14-10)
Golden State Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.4 (18 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 99.0 (3 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: +3.1 (6 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 196.90 (13 of 30)
Golden State is ranked third in the league in defensive efficiency this year, but they do give up around the league average in points and fantasy points due to how fast they play the game. Everyone appears to be back in the lineup, but except for Calderon. No news has been given on his status, but keep an eye out as it opens up some great value. The Knicks do have a 103.3 projected team total today, which is 3.8 points higher than their season average.
Elite Plays
Anthony is a solid play at his price, although, with the blowout potential today. He scored 49 fantasy points in his return from injury against the Suns in only 30 minutes. If this game stays close, Anthony will need to be a major part of the scoring for the Knicks and could have a big game at home.
FD — $9,000 — SF
DK — $8,300 —SF
Usage – 28.2
Min/Game — Season: 34.5
Secondary Plays
Only if Calderon sits again, Galloway makes a great value play on the board today. With minutes, Galloway has averaged 31.7 fantasy points over his last three games. With his price where it is at, he makes for one of the best value plays on the board.
FD — $4,500 — SG
DK — $4,500 —SG
Usage – 15.0
Min/Game — Season: 24.4