NBA Grind Down: Sunday, January 3rd
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
Atlanta at New York – 03:30 PM
- Vegas Line – Atlanta -4.5, 203.5 Over/Under
- Atlanta Proj. Starters – Teague-Korver-Bazemore-Millsap-
- New York Proj. Starters – Calderon-Afflalo-Anthony-Porzingis-Lopez
| Atlanta | New York | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 203 |  | Vegas Total | 203 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -4.5 | Vegas Sprd | 4.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 104.0 | Team Proj. | 99.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 98.72 | Team Pace | 96.41 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Jeff Teague | Kyle Korver | Kent Bazemore | Paul Millsap | Proj Starter | Jose Calderon | Arron Afflalo | Carmelo Anthony | Kristaps Porzingis | Robin Lopez | ||
| Opp. Season | 12 | 17 | 8 | 7 | 17 | Opp. Season | 17 | 18 | 18 | 11 | 22 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 22 | 11 | 25 | 18 | 13 | Opp. Season | 3 | 28 | 1 | 8 | 25 | |
Atlanta
Let’s get started Grinders! Today’s Grind Down will be a little more “bare bones” since I made the rookie mistake of closing the tab I was wrote the article in before saving the work. So much for a Grind Down debut – it was almost as traumatizing as watching Anthony Davis take a fall. Thankfully there are a few other rookies we can look at for today who should do a much better job (Devin Booker, anyone?). That being said…
Atlanta’s big three of Teague, Millsap, and Horford have been solid as usual this year. This matchup is especially good for Teague, though both Millsap and Horford are both good values on DraftKings specifically. In what should remain a close game, they should all see their usual minutes and then some.
Elite Plays
Teague has been a little more up and down this year than in years past, but we all know the type of massive upside he has on any given day. In this matchup against the defensively weak Knicks backcourt, I’d expect a solid level of production with the potential for a lot more.
Millsap has an especially appealing price on DraftKings. On a slate with few solid power forward options, he makes for a great play as a 4-point road favorite in a game that should stay close and keep Paul on the floor.
Secondary Plays
Horford, like most centers, has been drastically underpriced on DraftKings all year and today is no different. He has 50+ point upside at a mid-$6K price tag. I wouldn’t get too carried away with expectations in this matchup, but he should have a safe floor of about 30 points or so.
New York
Atlanta’s defense is just middle of the road this year, but they’re still not an appealing matchup. The spread suggests this game will stay close, though, and players like Carmelo Anthony will always get their shots up. Robin Lopez will play decent minutes, and Kristaps Porzingis remains a very nice value on FanDuel despite the drop in production recently.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Chicago at Toronto – 03:30 PM
- Vegas Line – No Lines Set for This Game Yet
- Chicago Proj. Starters – Rose-Butler-Mirotic-Gibson-
- Toronto Proj. Starters – Lowry-DeRozan-Carroll-Scola-Valanciunas
| Chicago | Toronto | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total |  | Vegas Total | |||||||||
| Vegas Sprd | Vegas Sprd | |||||||||||
| Team Proj. | Team Proj. | |||||||||||
| Team Pace | 98.89 | Team Pace | 95.86 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Derrick Rose | Jimmy Butler | Nikola Mirotic | Taj Gibson | Proj Starter | Kyle Lowry | DeMar DeRozan | DeMarre Carroll | Luis Scola | Jonas Valanciunas | ||
| Opp. Season | 3 | 15 | 5 | 13 | 14 | Opp. Season | 25 | 5 | 22 | 12 | 24 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 20 | 17 | 10 | 21 | 6 | Opp. Season | 26 | 6 | 13 | 11 | 4 | |
Chicago
The loss of Joakim Noah has opened up sizable minutes increases for both Bobby Portis and Taj Gibson. While Gibson’s price has slowly creeped up (especially on DK), Portis has remained a nice value for us, despite playing 26+ minutes in each of his last three games. Butler would get a nice bump if Rose is out as well, and Gasol is an especially nice value on DK.
Elite Plays
Secondary Plays
Toronto
Though the Bulls aren’t the same defensive team they used to be, there’s still not much to like in this game for the Raptors, despite being 4 point favorites at home. DeRozan has been amazingly consistent, but he’ll likely draw the tough defense of Jimmy Butler. Kyle Lowry has been more up-and-down recently after a solid start to the season, and he’ll likely draw the defense of Brooks and/or Hinrich at times making him my preferred play from the Raptors.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Miami at Washington – 06:00 PM
- Vegas Line – EVEN SPREAD, 198.5 OVER/UNDER
- Miami Proj. Starters – Dragic-Wade-Deng-Bosh-Whiteside
- Washington Proj. Starters – Wall—Porter-Dudley-Gortat
| Miami | Washington | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 198 |  | Vegas Total | 198 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 0.0 | Vegas Sprd | 0.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 99.3 | Team Proj. | 99.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 94.46 | Team Pace | 100.30 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Goran Dragic | Dwyane Wade | Luol Deng | Chris Bosh | Hassan Whiteside | Proj Starter | John Wall | Otto Porter | Jared Dudley | Marcin Gortat | ||
| Opp. Season | 5 | 28 | 29 | 8 | 11 | Opp. Season | 2 | 3 | 20 | 2 | 10 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 2 | 29 | 8 | 1 | 26 | Opp. Season | 14 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 28 | |
Miami
Miami’s prospects are decent in this game where they should be playing at a much faster pace than normal. The up-and-down pace should favor someone like Dragic, who excels in transition, and Wade who’ll likely be defended by a much smaller player at times. Bosh and Whiteside should both have their minutes upside limited by the smaller unit the Wizards will likely use, even though they’re slowly getting healthy in the frontcourt.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Dragic is a guard who excels in transition, and this should be a pace-up game for the Heat here against a Wizards team that have been playing smaller with all the injuries. He never has massive upside given all the usage taken by Wade and Bosh, but he should be fairly safe at his low price given the pace of this game.
Wade will present a tough defensive matchup for the Wizards, as I’m not sure who they’ll use to guard him. I’m assuming Porter will be on Deng, meaning Wade will likely draw Garrett Temple for large parts of the game. To me that’s a mismatch, and given the tempo of the game, plus the usage Wade always sees, he’s a safe bet to at least come close to hitting value.
Washington
The Wizards have been a good source of value, but this is matchup where I’m mostly looking to stay away. The Heat boast the league’s third-best defense in terms of points per game, and though Wall and Porter have both been great recently, the upside just isn’t there in this matchup.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Wall’s been a solid producer lately with extremely high usage, but this matchup limits his upside so much. He should be a safe bet for 40+ points, but I wouldn’t expect much beyond that.
Porter is back to playing consistent minutes for the Wizards with all their injuries. His work on the glass has been especially surprising. This matchup is nothing to target, though, and I wouldn’t be looking for more than points in the mid-twenties here.
Portland at Denver – 09:00 PM
- Vegas Line – No Lines Set for This Game Yet
- Portland Proj. Starters – McCollum-McCollum-Aminu-Vonleh-Plumlee
- Denver Proj. Starters – Nelson-Harris-Gallinari-Arthur-Jokic
| Portland | Denver | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total |  | Vegas Total | |||||||||
| Vegas Sprd | Vegas Sprd | |||||||||||
| Team Proj. | Team Proj. | |||||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.24 | Team Pace | 97.62 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | C.J. McCollum | C.J. McCollum | Al-Farouq Aminu | Noah Vonleh | Mason Plumlee | Proj Starter | Jameer Nelson | Gary Harris | Danilo Gallinari | Darrell Arthur | Nikola Jokic | |
| Opp. Season | 28 | 29 | 14 | 20 | 23 | Opp. Season | 16 | 19 | 7 | 18 | 27 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 24 | 21 | 26 | 25 | 8 | Opp. Season | 16 | 26 | 20 | 2 | 15 | |
Portland
Portland’s status will be greatly affected by Damian Lillard, so be sure to check on his status before lineups lock. If he remains out, McCollum and Crabbe both become very solid plays, and against a Nuggets team that should be even more vulnerable in the frontcourt sans Kenneth Faried, who didn’t travel with the team, Leonard is an interesting option as well.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
McCollum has been an amazingly consistent producer this year, and he’s only ramped up that production without Lillard. Lillard is currently a game time decision so be sure to check the injury news before lineups lock. Even if he plays though, McCollum won’t kill a lineup, as he’s had no fewer than 18 FGA in any of his last 8 games.
The Nuggets are traditionally weak in the frontcourt, and that’s what makes Leonard interesting today. I doubt he’ll be very heavily owned, but he’s played no fewer than 21 minutes in any of his last 9. Against a Faried-less Nuggets team I think he upside to the thirties, especially with a potentially sick Mason Plumlee toughing it out.
Crabbe has played at least 30 minutes in each of his last 7 games, and if Lillard is out again tonight, there’s no reason to think that won’t continue. As a player who averages 0.71 FDP/min over his last 15 games, the minutes and price and allow for some safe value with some upside against a banged up Nuggets team coming off an overtime game last night against the Warriors.
Denver
Kenneth Faried didn’t travel with the team, which should open up plenty of minutes for an already depleted Nuggets team. Darrell Arthur should see minutes approaching the thirties, while Barton, Nelson, and Harris should continue their strong production against a defensively-weak Blazers backcourt.
Elite Plays
Barton has been a godsend for this Nuggets team that otherwise doesn’t have many dynamic scoring options. The price continues to rise, but he’s been a consistent producer, even at the elevated prices. The fact that this is a revenge game certainly doesn’t hurt, as he put up 44 FanDuel points on this same Blazers team just a few days ago.
Nelson has played over 40 minutes in each of his last two games as the Nuggets try to make do without Emmanuel Mudiay. I’m a little worried they’ll try to take it easy on him given that he played 45 in last night’s game OT game against Golden State, but they really don’t have anywhere else to go for big minutes at the PG spot. I think he’s still safe for about 30 minutes tonight, with the upside for much more obviously. As a 0.76 FDP/min producer, he offers nice value, especially in this plus matchup against the Blazers.
Kenneth Faried didn’t even travel with the team, so Arthur should be locked into minutes approaching the thirties tonight. At the bargain basement prices of $3,900 on DraftKings and $3,500 on FanDuel he should easily approach value. The Nuggets are never an easy team to trust, but the risk is minimal in this case.
Secondary Plays
Harris has played at least 30 minutes in each of his last 7 games. With the Nuggets so banged up, those minutes should be safe going forward as well. Against a Blazers team that struggles against both the PG and SG positions, Harris offers nice, safe value at $4,400 on FD and $4,700 on DK, with upside into the thirties.
Phoenix at L.A. Lakers – 09:30 PM
- Vegas Line – L.A. Lakers -1.5, 208.5 Over/Under
- Phoenix Proj. Starters – Knight-Booker-Tucker-Leuer-Chandler
- L.A. Lakers Proj. Starters – Clarkson-Williams-Bryant-Nance-Hibbert
| Phoenix | L.A. Lakers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 208 |  | Vegas Total | 208 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 1.5 | Vegas Sprd | -1.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 103.5 | Team Proj. | 105.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 101.05 | Team Pace | 98.76 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Brandon Knight | Devin Booker | P.J. Tucker | Jon Leuer | Tyson Chandler | Proj Starter | Jordan Clarkson | Lou Williams | Kobe Bryant | Larry Nance | Roy Hibbert | |
| Opp. Season | 30 | 26 | 25 | 25 | 26 | Opp. Season | 29 | 24 | 26 | 14 | 6 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 27 | 2 | 28 | 19 | 2 | Opp. Season | 30 | 10 | 24 | 17 | 27 | |
Phoenix
This is the game that everyone will be looking at in tonight’s slate, so it’s important to get some exposure. With the injury to Eric Bledsoe, minutes have opened up for the entire team, and there’s a lot of great value to be had on the Suns as well.
Elite Plays
Knight is especially appealing on FanDuel at the bargain price of $6,500 and he should be very popular. I’m not too worried about the high ownership.
Booker has played 41 and 39 minutes in the last two games and now draws an amazing matchup with the Lakers. His ownership will be sky-high and it should be. Fade at your own risk.
Jon Leuer has been banged up, and Warren’s been getting some extra minutes as a result. Even if Leuer plays without issue here, I still like Warren’s prospects. He moves very well without the ball and is a decent bet to score 20+ real life points in this one against the porous Lakers defense.
Secondary Plays
Basically almost everyone is in play in this game. Tucker is never a sexy play, but he should provide solid stats and a tough SF position.
Chandler draws a plus matchup in this game, and though Alex Len is there to compete for minutes, I really like the opportunity he has to produce, especially at the bargain price of $4,200 on FanDuel.
Whenever Mirza gets the minutes, he’s a good bet for production, and this game will be no different.
L.A. Lakers
So much of the value on the Lakers, like always, hinges on the status of Kobe Bryant. If he plays (he’s currently questionable), the Lakers guards Clarkson, Russell, and Williams become secondary plays. If he’s out, Clarkson and Williams become elite plays and Russell is borderline elite.
Elite Plays
Clarkson’s been playing minutes in the mid-thirties the last few games, and if Kobe sits again, there’s no reason to think that won’t continue. At $5,300 on DraftKings and $5,900 on FanDuel, that’s a promising situation in a game like this.
Lou without Kobe equals money. Even if Kobe suits up, Lou should have no problems getting off his fair share of shots in this matchup.
Secondary Plays
D’Angelo Russell
Russell has played at least 23 minutes of each of his last 6 games. Though Byron Scott’s rotations are anything but consistent, Russell will get at least decent playing time in every game. This game should be back-and-forth for large sections of it, something that should suit D’Angelo’s playing style. It’s a risk, but one that could pay off handsomely, especially if Kobe sits again.