NBA Grind Down: Sunday, November 26th

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ


Phoenix Suns at Minnesota Timberwolves – 3:30 PM ET

Phoenix Suns Minnesota Timberwolves
phoenixnba Vegas Total minnesotanba Vegas Total
Vegas Spread Vegas Spread
Implied Team Total Implied Team Total
Pace Projection +/- -0.2 Pace Projection +/- 5.8
Projected Starters Tyler Ulis Devin Booker T.J. Warren Marquese Chriss Tyson Chandler Projected Starters Jeff Teague Andrew Wiggins Jimmy Butler Taj Gibson Karl-Anthony Towns
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 21 19 11 2 24 DvP 30 28 16 29 17
DRPM -0.45 -0.90 1.15 1.20 -0.63 DRPM -1.54 -1.96 -1.29 0.53 1.65

Phoenix Suns

Notable Injuries

Devin Booker (Questionable)

We have a tidy little three game NBA slate today, which kicks off with the Suns and Wolves battling in Minnesota. There is big injury news on both sides that we have to monitor, and the Phoenix side starts with Devin Booker. He is questionable for this game with a toe injury, and we don’t have any clarity as of the time I am writing this about whether or not he will go. If we run the RotoGrinders CourtIQ tool with Booker off the floor, we see that point guards Tyler Ulis and Mike James see huge boosts in usage. That is no surprise, as Booker often dominates the ball when he is on the floor. I’m not sure if the Suns would use Ulis and James on the court at the same time, though, so we might not see an increase in minutes for either player. Ulis gets the fantasy bump as the starter at the point, assuming Booker is out today. Should Booker play without restrictions, he is obviously a strong option on a three game slate.

The minutes are hard to predict with the rest of this team, as the Suns often use deep rotations with a lot of players logging 15-25 minutes. That’s not exciting from a fantasy perspective, but T.J. Warren seems to have the safest playing time on the squad. Josh Jackson has played alongside Warren at times lately, and you will likely see that a lot if Booker can’t play. The biggest minutes boost from a Booker absence just might go to Jackson. Warren is having a decent year with averages of 19 points and six rebounds per game, and he would normally be an elite option on a three game slate. However, I am bumping him down to secondary status today since he is likely to see a lot of Jimmy Butler defense.

As far as the centers go, this situation is a fantasy nightmare. Greg Monroe actually started at power forward alongside Tyson Chandler in the last game, but that was likely matchup-driven against the Pelicans. Monroe also only played 12 minutes in that game. Tyson Chandler logged 14 points and nine rebounds over 27 minutes in the last game, but he is by no means a safe play. Alex Len seems to be third in line at this point. With three bodies in the mix, you will see Jay Triano take a hot hand approach here, and I am not all that interested for DFS purposes.

Phoenix Suns Offense

Points Per Game: 107.8 (12 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: ( of 4)
Projected Point Differential: #VALUE! ( of 4)

Matchup vs. Minnesota Timberwolves

Points Allowed Per Game: 108.2 (24 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.9 (23 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.8 (10 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.4 (14 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L3 +/- Minutes L3 +/- FP/Min True Usage TS% Opp. DvP Opp. DRPM
Tyler Ulis $4,900 $4,200 $8,200 17.2 5.9 22.0 4.9 0.78 18.4% 42.9% 21 -0.45
Devin Booker $7,300 $8,000 $13,900 35.2 0.9 33.7 1.2 1.04 26.6% 55.8% 19 -0.90
T.J. Warren $7,900 $7,100 $13,500 31.8 8.3 30.5 8.0 1.04 22.9% 53.6% 11 1.15
Marquese Chriss $3,700 $3,900 $8,100 18.4 -6.8 20.1 -3.2 0.91 13.5% 50.5% 2 1.20
Tyson Chandler $4,900 $4,400 $9,100 21.1 5.8 25.4 -4.4 0.83 9.2% 62.9% 24 -0.63
Mike James $4,400 $4,300 $8,200 21.9 -2.8 23.3 -1.0 0.94 23.5% 47.6% N/A N/A
Greg Monroe $4,900 $4,900 $9,700 20.0 4.7 19.5 3.7 1.03 18.6% 57.3% N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Tyler Ulis (IF Booker is out)

Secondary Plays – Tyler Ulis (IF Booker is in), T.J. Warren, Josh Jackson, Tyson Chandler, Devin Booker (if active)


Minnesota Timberwolves

Notable Injuries

Jeff Teague (Questionable)
Nemanja Bjelica (Questionable)

The primary situation to monitor on this side is the status of Jeff Teague. He was a late scratch on Friday night, which burned a decent chunk of fantasy owners. As Tom Thibodeau is known to do, he went with a thin nine man rotation in that game. Aaron Brooks drew the start for Teague, but he played just 13 minutes in the game. Tyus Jones was the primary benefactor in Teague’s absence, logging 33 minutes off the bench with a solid all around line of eight points, six rebounds, six assists, and four steals. Should Teague be forced to the sidelines again today, Jones is the guy to keep an eye on as a value play. Jimmy Butler and Andrew Wiggins will also handle the ball a lot more, and they both rank inside the top seven in the NBA in minutes per game. Regardless of Teague’s status, they are both solid options in a pace up game against the defensively-challenged Suns.

Taj Gibson carries a little less appeal with Gorgui Dieng back in the mix, but he still seems to be playing a huge chunk of minutes despite that. Gibson’s usage isn’t high enough to make him an elite play, but anyone playing 35-38 minutes against the Suns is worth a look. Today’s slate isn’t loaded at center, so Karl-Anthony Towns gets the nod as a strong option in all formats. The combination of huge minutes for Minnesota’s starters combined with a great matchup makes all the primary players very strong options on a three game slate. Fire up some Timberwolves with confidence, and I will likely have at least two of them on all my rosters today.

Minnesota Timberwolves Offense

Points Per Game: 108.1 (10 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: ( of 4)
Projected Point Differential: #VALUE! ( of 4)

Matchup vs. Phoenix Suns

Points Allowed Per Game: 115.8 (30 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.2 (28 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.4 (17 of 30)
Pace of Play: 106.4 (2 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L3 +/- Minutes L3 +/- FP/Min True Usage TS% Opp. DvP Opp. DRPM
Jeff Teague $7,700 $6,800 $12,500 32.6 3.5 33.9 3.4 0.96 21.1% 53.5% 30 -1.54
Andrew Wiggins $6,800 $6,500 $13,900 30.0 -0.4 36.4 3.0 0.82 21.2% 52.6% 28 -1.96
Jimmy Butler $9,000 $7,500 $14,500 34.1 5.2 36.2 0.8 0.94 20.7% 53.5% 16 -1.29
Taj Gibson $5,600 $5,500 $10,700 25.8 2.8 31.2 2.3 0.83 12.5% 59.0% 29 0.53
Karl-Anthony Towns $9,800 $8,900 $17,800 40.5 -6.6 34.3 0.5 1.18 20.0% 63.4% 17 1.65
Jamal Crawford $3,200 $3,700 $7,300 15.1 -1.5 17.2 -5.0 0.88 22.7% 56.2% N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Jimmy Butler, Andrew Wiggins, Karl-Anthony Towns, Tyus Jones (IF Teague is out)

Secondary Plays – Jeff Teague (if active), Taj Gibson


Miami Heat at Chicago Bulls – 3:30 PM ET

Miami Heat Chicago Bulls
miaminba Vegas Total 197.0 chicagonba Vegas Total 197.0
Vegas Spread -7.0 Vegas Spread 7.0
Implied Team Total 102.0 Implied Team Total 95.0
Pace Projection +/- -2.2 Pace Projection +/- -1.6
Projected Starters Goran Dragic Dion Waiters Josh Richardson Justise Winslow Hassan Whiteside Projected Starters Kris Dunn Justin Holiday Denzel Valentine Lauri Markkanen Robin Lopez
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 25 16 18 15 13 DvP 9 11 9 21 4
DRPM 0.63 -0.04 -1.09 0.41 0.36 DRPM -1.03 -0.43 1.27 0.55 2.86

Miami Heat

Notable Injuries

Hassan Whiteside (Questionable)

This is definitely the least exciting game of the three that we have today, as a pair of slower paced teams meet in Chicago. Once again, we have injury news to monitor, as Hassan Whiteside is questionable for the Heat. It does sound like he is leaning toward playing, so this analysis will assume he plays. If he is out, upgrade the likes of James Johnson and Kelly Olynyk, who would play increased minutes off the bench. Bam Adebayo would likely start, but he is not a fantasy option after receiving a DNP-CD in the last game. Johnson would be the most intriguing option if Whiteside sits.

Even if Whiteside plays, this isn’t necessarily the most appealing matchup for him. Since he is operating at less than 100% and has a less than stellar matchup, I would not consider him over Towns or Gasol at center. The interesting options reside in the backcourt, as the Bulls have struggled defending the guard positions this year. They rank near the bottom of the league in DvP against point guards, vaulting Goran Dragic into fantasy relevance today. His DFS price tag is very reasonable, and he is a solid play in all formats. With Jeff Teague questionable, there aren’t a lot of attractive mid-range point guards on today’s slate.

Lastly, we can give a peek to the wing starters in Dion Waiters and Josh Richardson. Waiters is maddeningly inconsistent, and Richardson doesn’t have the highest usage rate, but the minutes are steady for both of them in the low-to-mid 30’s. I prefer both of them in GPP formats given the low floors that both have, especially since this will likely be the lowest-paced game of the day.

Miami Heat Offense

Points Per Game: 100.5 (25 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 102.0 (3 of 4)
Projected Point Differential: 1.5 ( of 4)

Matchup vs. Chicago Bulls

Points Allowed Per Game: 105.1 (14 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.1 (25 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.1 (21 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.4 (24 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L3 +/- Minutes L3 +/- FP/Min True Usage TS% Opp. DvP Opp. DRPM
Goran Dragic $7,500 $7,300 $13,700 31.4 -4.0 33.9 -3.0 0.93 24.1% 56.1% 25 0.63
Dion Waiters $6,600 $6,100 $11,800 25.3 -1.5 31.9 -0.7 0.79 23.8% 49.1% 16 -0.04
Josh Richardson $4,600 $4,600 $8,900 20.0 -6.2 33.1 -1.2 0.61 13.6% 46.3% 18 -1.09
Justise Winslow $4,500 $4,200 $8,500 18.7 3.4 23.7 -1.5 0.79 14.2% 48.4% 15 0.41
Hassan Whiteside $8,900 $9,000 $17,000 38.2 -5.3 28.2 -1.0 1.36 18.5% 62.0% 13 0.36
James Johnson $6,100 $5,800 $12,100 26.9 -6.1 27.6 -1.4 0.97 18.6% 59.8% N/A N/A
Tyler Johnson $4,700 $4,100 $8,000 20.2 -0.5 27.8 -3.0 0.73 17.4% 49.3% N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Goran Dragic, James Johnson (IF Whiteside is out)

Secondary Plays – Dion Waiters (GPP), Josh Richardson (GPP), James Johnson (IF Whiteside is in), Hassan Whiteside (if active)


Chicago Bulls

Notable Injuries

David Nwaba (Out)
Nikola Mirotic (Out)

The Bulls aren’t a very good basketball team, and they got obliterated by a Warriors team that was missing both Draymond Green and Kevin Durant on Friday night. That is par for the course for a team that currently sits at 3-14 on the year. They have lost their last two games by at least 30 points, so we can’t put a whole lot of stock into the recent minutes distribution. We might also see a shake-up in the starting lineup here, as that would be a reasonable course of action with the way they have been playing. With that risk combined with a poor matchup, it’s hard to endorse any Chicago players as elite options, even on a three game slate. Miami ranks inside the top half of the league in DvP against virtually every position.

Of course, it’s also a disservice to completely write off a team on a three game slate. Kris Dunn has taken over the point guard job from Jerian Grant, but Grant played well off the bench the other night. Dunn is the player with the fantasy upside, but it would not surprise me to see both players log around 24 minutes today. Denzel Valentine has been the most impressive player for the Bulls over the last two weeks, so I would like to think that his role is secure. He’s decently affordable on every site and has the ability to contribute in multiple statistical categories. It’s not a ringing endorsement, but he is my favorite option from this team today.

Lastly, if you want a risk/reward GPP option, give Bobby Portis a look. He has played well off the bench since his return from suspension, and he would be one of the more likely lineup shake-ups if we do see one. Lauri Markkanen has made just 9-of-42 from the field (yikes) over the last three games. I suppose you could consider Justin Holiday, but he is scoring dependent and doesn’t really grab me despite the limited amount of games today. Robin Lopez gets an upgrade if Whiteside is out for the Heat, but I want no part of him if Whiteside is active.

Chicago Bulls Offense

Points Per Game: 94.4 (29 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 95.0 (4 of 4)
Projected Point Differential: 0.6 ( of 4)

Matchup vs. Miami Heat

Points Allowed Per Game: 102.8 (8 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.6 (12 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.7 (18 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.0 (19 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L3 +/- Minutes L3 +/- FP/Min True Usage TS% Opp. DvP Opp. DRPM
Kris Dunn $6,500 $5,900 $11,300 27.4 2.8 26.7 2.3 1.03 23.9% 47.5% 9 -1.03
Justin Holiday $5,400 $5,600 $11,000 26.3 -5.1 34.4 1.4 0.76 19.9% 47.2% 11 -0.43
Denzel Valentine $5,200 $5,400 $11,300 22.1 2.1 27.9 4.4 0.79 18.4% 50.4% 9 1.27
Lauri Markkanen $6,500 $6,400 $12,600 28.8 -1.6 30.5 -1.0 0.94 19.8% 54.4% 21 0.55
Robin Lopez $4,900 $4,600 $8,800 24.4 -1.4 29.9 -0.4 0.82 19.2% 54.5% 4 2.86
Bobby Portis $4,800 $5,300 $10,400 26.1 -1.6 22.7 -1.1 1.15 22.9% 55.6% N/A N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Denzel Valentine, Kris Dunn, Bobby Portis (GPP), Justin Holiday


Brooklyn Nets at Memphis Grizzlies – 6:00 PM ET

Brooklyn Nets Memphis Grizzlies
brooklynnba Vegas Total 212.0 memphisnba Vegas Total 212.0
Vegas Spread 5.5 Vegas Spread -5.5
Implied Team Total 103.3 Implied Team Total 108.8
Pace Projection +/- -2.7 Pace Projection +/- 6.0
Projected Starters Spencer Dinwiddie Allen Crabbe DeMarre Carroll Rondae Hollis-Jefferson Trevor Booker Projected Starters Mario Chalmers Dillon Brooks Chandler Parsons JaMychal Green Marc Gasol
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 19 8 3 8 9 DvP 27 15 30 30 28
DRPM 1.08 1.16 0.05 0.33 0.91 DRPM 0.07 -1.51 1.22 -0.71 -0.34

Brooklyn Nets

Notable Injuries

D’Angelo Russell (Out)

This is a tough matchup for the Nets, as they travel on the road to take on a Memphis squad that ranks 28th in the league in pace. This is a massive downgrade for the generally up tempo Nets, and there aren’t a lot of strong options here. The good news is that we aren’t seeing the same “24 minutes for everyone” approach that we saw last year with this team. Spencer Dinwiddie has done a solid job filling in for D’Angelo Russell at point guard, and he has been perhaps the biggest surprise on this team. Even though he isn’t the value play that he once was, he has done enough to justify a mid-range price tag. On a three game slate, he is very much in play today. He is averaging 18 points and nine assists per game over his last five, and he has played at least 31 minutes in four of them. Allen Crabbe has also entered the starting lineup and is playing consistent minutes at the two. Crabbe is more of a scoring dependent, secondary option, and I don’t love him in a matchup like this one.

The minutes in the frontcourt are a little more muddy, as Tyler Zeller has bumped his way into the starting lineup. Here are the minutes from the last game, which stayed competitive down to the final whistle:

Tyler Zeller 19
Trevor Booker 20
Jarrett Allen 24
DeMarre Carroll 25
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson 30

That’s about what I would expect going forward, with Carroll logging a chunk of minutes at the three and the four. Hollis-Jefferson is your safest option from this group, but I don’t love him against Memphis. This is a strong interior defense that we don’t need to pick on unless we have to. Caris LeVert and Sean Kilpatrick aren’t seeing enough minutes and/or usage to trust off the bench in a difficult matchup. Don’t go nuts with Nets exposure despite the short slate.

Brooklyn Nets Offense

Points Per Game: 110.5 (4 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 103.3 (2 of 4)
Projected Point Differential: -7.3 ( of 4)

Matchup vs. Memphis Grizzlies

Points Allowed Per Game: 100.9 (6 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.6 (10 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.6 (24 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.9 (28 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L3 +/- Minutes L3 +/- FP/Min True Usage TS% Opp. DvP Opp. DRPM
Spencer Dinwiddie $7,900 $7,000 $14,500 26.0 12.6 24.5 5.4 1.06 21.9% 54.7% 19 1.08
Allen Crabbe $5,700 $5,000 $10,800 21.5 6.5 27.1 4.4 0.79 16.6% 57.2% 8 1.16
DeMarre Carroll $6,000 $5,700 $11,100 27.4 -2.0 29.4 2.5 0.93 17.3% 55.6% 3 0.05
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson $7,200 $6,300 $11,900 28.3 0.1 28.0 -0.2 1.01 18.8% 58.0% 8 0.33
Trevor Booker $5,500 $4,700 $9,000 20.8 -7.2 21.7 -3.7 0.96 18.8% 53.3% 9 0.91

Elite Plays – Spencer Dinwiddie

Secondary Plays – Allen Crabbe, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson


Memphis Grizzlies

Notable Injuries

Mike Conley (Out)
Branden Wright (Out)

While this is a bad matchup for the Nets, it is the exact opposite for the Grizzlies. They get a massive pace boost against the Nets, who have allowed over 100 points in six straight games. I would not expect that to change tonight. We have a decent sample size of minutes with Mike Conley off the floor these days, so we can fire up the CourtIQ to see how Memphis goes about things sans Conley. Tyreke Evans and Marc Gasol both have 30% usage rates in these instances, and they both see decent boosts in fantasy production. Mario Chalmers also sees a bump in production, but the main benefit to Chalmers is obviously the increased playing time as a starter. This trio is very much in play against the Nets, and I wouldn’t hesitate to put all three on a roster. Even though Evans continues to come off the bench, he plays starter’s minutes and is a fine option in all formats.

Perhaps the key to success on this three game slate will be figuring out which OTHER Memphis player will play well in a favorable matchup. Dillon Brooks and Chandler Parsons have both been starting, but Brooks is a relatively low usage player, and Parsons never plays more than about 25 minutes. It’s hard to get excited about either guy, but Brooks could do enough to meet value in this matchup. He’s a decent all around player, and he could add some hustle steals or blocks against a sloppy, fast paced team. I’ll plant my flag with Brooks, but realize that his floor is very low. He does have the potential to be a difference-maker on this slate. JaMychal Green is healthy and coming off a solid game, and he gets an upgrade with Branden Wright out again today. I do think we will see the Grizzlies use a tight rotation in this game as they look to break a seven game losing streak. That’s good news for the starters.

Memphis Grizzlies Offense

Points Per Game: 99.8 (27 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 108.8 (1 of 4)
Projected Point Differential: 9.0 ( of 4)

Matchup vs. Brooklyn Nets

Points Allowed Per Game: 114.2 (29 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.7 (27 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.4 (23 of 30)
Pace of Play: 106.6 (1 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L3 +/- Minutes L3 +/- FP/Min True Usage TS% Opp. DvP Opp. DRPM
Mario Chalmers $6,900 $6,000 $12,400 21.3 12.1 24.8 7.1 0.86 18.7% 46.6% 27 0.07
Dillon Brooks $4,900 $4,100 $8,000 19.2 -2.7 29.5 2.2 0.65 13.0% 54.6% 15 -1.51
Chandler Parsons $4,600 $4,000 $7,600 16.2 1.2 20.2 4.3 0.80 15.2% 65.7% 30 1.22
JaMychal Green $6,200 $4,400 $8,900 17.0 6.6 21.3 7.1 0.80 14.1% 63.7% 30 -0.71
Marc Gasol $9,200 $8,500 $15,300 39.9 -1.3 34.5 0.6 1.16 24.7% 53.4% 28 -0.34
Tyreke Evans $7,700 $6,900 $12,100 31.8 -0.9 28.2 0.6 1.13 25.3% 60.6% N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Marc Gasol, Tyreke Evans, Mario Chalmers

Secondary Plays – JaMychal Green, Dillon Brooks

About the Author

stlcardinals84
Justin Van Zuiden (stlcardinals84)

Justin Van Zuiden (aka stlcardinals84) is a longtime RotoGrinders contributor and show host. He’s appeared in numerous Live Finals, has logged countless 6-figure wins in a host of different sports (including 5 in PGA), and is a former DFS Writer of the Year Nominee by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. You can find Justin’s ‘Covering The Bases’ series on weekends during the MLB season. He is also a main contributor of sports betting picks at our sister site, ScoresAndOdds, and is a co-host on the RotoGrinders Game Night show on SiriusXM. Follow Justin on X – @stlcardinals84