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NBA Grind Down: Sunday, October 30th

by Chirag Hira (INSPYR) Last Updated 2016-10-31 02:27:27

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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

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Utah Jazz at Los Angeles Clippers – 4:30 PM ET

Utah Jazz Los Angeles Clippers
utahnba Vegas Total 196.0 laclippersnba Vegas Total 196.0
Vegas Spread 8.0 Vegas Spread -8.0
Team Total 94.0 Team Total 102.0
Pace of Play 94.90 Pace of Play 104.20
Proj. Starter George Hill Rodney Hood Joe Johnson Derrick Favors Rudy Gobert Proj. Starter Chris Paul J.J. Redick Luc Richard Mbah a Moute Blake Griffin DeAndre Jordan
Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C
2015-16 4 1 11 13 15 2015-16 6 7 2 2 3

Utah Jazz

The Jazz will come to LA to face the Clippers after defeating the Lakers at home on Friday. Derrick Favors made his season debut off the bench against the Lakers and had 15 points, 9 rebounds, 2 blocks, and 2 steals. That’s a pretty solid debut for a guy that just played 20 minutes and we should expect Favors to start tonight against Blake Griffin. George Hill leads the team in MPG with 37 and is averaging 16 shot attempts a game. He’s also handing 4.5 assists and has been exactly what they needed when they brought him over from Indiana. Today there’s a chance that he plays more of a facilitator role with Chris Paul guarding him. Rodney Hood is right behind him in shot attempts (15.5) and has been playing 35 minutes a game. It will be interesting to see how his approach changes if Favors starts.

Another guy that could be slightly affected by Favors starting is Rudy Gobert. Boris Diaw is an amazing passer and has been setting Gobert up for easy baskets. Still, Gobert is only averaging 8 shot attempts a game and has never really been known for his offense. He’s proven that his free throw shooting has improved and hit 4/4 and 5/8 in the two games. We can continue to expect Gobert to get about 8 shot attempts a game, even if Favors starts next to him. He’s pretty expensive today and is a secondary option because I expect him to lose some rebounds to Favors. Joe Johnson came back to earth against the Lakers but the Clippers struggle to contain small forwards. This is a low-scoring affair and we should look at other games for higher upside plays.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary Minutes FP/Game FP/Min True Usage DvP
George Hill PG $6,200 PG $5,800 38.8 35.4 0.91 27.7% 4
Rodney Hood SG $5,700 SG $6,100 37.7 35.9 0.95 30.9% 1
Joe Johnson SF $5,500 SG/SF $5,100 30.5 38.3 1.26 29.3% 11
Derrick Favors PF $7,000 PF $6,700 29.1% 13
Rudy Gobert C $7,100 C $7,600 41 32.8 0.80 18.8% 15
Trey Lyles PF $3,600 PF/C $3,700 17.9 7.4 0.41 24.9% 13

Elite Plays – N/A

Secondary Plays – Rodney Hood, Rudy Gobert, Derrick Favors, George Hill

Los Angeles Clippers

The Clippers will begin a three-game homestand tonight against the Jazz. Usually, when we see the Jazz on the schedule we avoid that offensive team. The Clippers best offensive weapon has been Blake Griffin and he will continue to get his. He took 22 shot attempts in their season-opener against the Blazers and played 37 minutes. Expect for him to get the usage and minutes again. He shot 40% in a plus matchup with the Blazers, so expect him to be inefficient again today. He completely fills up the stat sheet and will be a great weapon to use this season, just tough to trust it against the Jazz if Favors starts. If we confirmation before lock that Boris starts, Griffin will become a viable tournament play.

Chris Paul also took 19 shot attempts against the Blazers but we should always expect PGs to attack Damian Lillard. Today, George Hill will make that a defensive battle and we should expect more of a facilitator CP3. He’s still a viable tournament play but it would seem in a low-scoring game that his upside is capped. Jamal Crawford was the only other Clippers’ player to take ove 10 shot attempts and he’ll continue to be relied upon for offense off the bench. Interestingly, Mo Speights took more shot attempts than DeAndre Jordan. Speights will also be a focal point of the second unit and can play with the first unit if teams start to hack Jordan.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary Minutes FP/Game FP/Min True Usage DvP
Chris Paul PG $9,300 PG $8,400 53.8% 6
J.J. Redick SG $4,400 SG $4,400 27.4% 7
Luc Richard Mbah a Moute SF $3,700 SF $3,000 12.2% 2
Blake Griffin PF $8,600 PF $8,700 42.1% 2
DeAndre Jordan C $7,500 C $7,300 17.4% 3
Jamal Crawford SG $4,900 SG $3,900 32.8% 7

Elite Plays – N/A

Secondary Plays – Blake Griffin, Chris Paul

San Antonio Spurs at Miami Heat – 6:00 PM ET

Editor’s Note: LaMarcus Aldridge will not play tonight.

San Antonio Spurs Miami Heat
sanantonionba Vegas Total 195.0 miaminba Vegas Total 195.0
Vegas Spread -6.5 Vegas Spread 6.5
Team Total 100.8 Team Total 94.3
Pace of Play 98.00 Pace of Play 98.70
Proj. Starter Tony Parker Kyle Anderson Kawhi Leonard David Lee Pau Gasol Proj. Starter Goran Dragic Dion Waiters Justise Winslow Luke Babbitt Hassan Whiteside
Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C
2015-16 3 3 6 6 7 2015-16 7 2 1 1 2

San Antonio Spurs

Editor’s Note: LaMarcus Aldridge will not play tonight.

The Spurs rested Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili last night against the Pelicans, but we should expect them to play tonight against the Heat. We get another defensive struggle on the slate, making mostly everyone secondary options. The one elite option we can take a look at is LaMarcus Aldridge. LMA only played 25 minutes last night and took 13 shot attempts. He is averaging 15.3 FGA in the three games the Spurs have played so far. He’s shot 30% in the last two but has had to deal with Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins. Look for him to turn it around against the Heat. The Heat have no idea what is going on at PF and LMA should exploit that a ton. We expect either Josh McRobers, Luke Babbitt, or Derrick Williams to start and none of these players exactly strike fear into anyone on defense. After only playing 25 minutes last night, look for Aldridge to play 30+ tonight and be the focal point of the offense like he was against the Warriors.

Kawhi Leonard will continue to lead this team and has a true usage of 33%. He averaged a shade under 32 minutes but did play 35 against the Kings in a close game. Expect Leonard to get extended run in close games, like tonight should be. He is more of a secondary option because he will have to deal with Justise Winslow. While Winslow is not going to stop Leonard, he will make it more difficult than any team has so far this season. With the 10th highest implied team total, this is a spot to only look at Aldridge and move to the next teams.

Notable Fantasy Players

Editor’s Note: LaMarcus Aldridge will not play tonight.

Player FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary Minutes FP/Game FP/Min True Usage DvP
Tony Parker PG $4,500 PG $4,000 26.5 16.6 0.63 39.6% 3
Kyle Anderson SF $3,500 SG/SF $3,800 22.4 9.8 0.44 23.8% 6
Kawhi Leonard SF $8,700 SF/PF $9,000 32.1 53.5 1.67 33.0% 6
LaMarcus Aldridge PF $7,600 PF/C $7,100 35.2 47.3 1.34 30.7% 6
Pau Gasol C $6,800 C $6,100 18.3 7.3 0.40 35.8% 7
Patty Mills PG $3,900 PG $3,800 17.9 27.7 1.55 30.4% 3

Elite Plays – N/A

Secondary Plays – Kawhi Leonard

Miami Heat

It’s sure surprising to see that Justise Winslow leads the team in FGA at 14.5 after two games. We can’t expect that to continue tonight against the Spurs with Kawhi Leonard on him. He’s also been pretty inefficient, shooting 38% after two games. Goran Dragic has the “best” matchup in this game and will continue to be the focal point of the offense, proven by his 38.1% true usage rate. I expect Dragic to go completely overlooked and if Whiteside sits, he becomes a must start. Hassan Whiteside is dealing with an elbow injury and said he expected to play but it’s something to watch for. If Hassan Whiteside misses this game, Willie Reed would become an elite option and Pau Gasol would as well for the Spurs. Whiteside is more of a help side shot blocker, which Gasol can exploit but with the low team total, it’s better to only use him if Whiteside misses the game. The Heat have the 12th lowest team total and we should move on to games with larger fantasy ceillings.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary Minutes FP/Game FP/Min True Usage DvP
Goran Dragic PG $6,600 PG $6,300 28.6 29.2 1.02 38.1% 7
Dion Waiters SG $4,600 SG $4,000 33.5 21.2 0.63 23.9% 2
Justise Winslow SF $4,900 SF $5,000 34 34.6 1.02 17.9% 1
Luke Babbitt SF $3,500 PF $3,000 18.8 12.2 0.65 22.3% 1
Hassan Whiteside C $8,300 C $8,000 31 43.3 1.40 22.5% 2
Tyler Johnson PG $4,500 PG/SG $4,200 28.3 29.7 1.05 26.3% 7
Derrick Williams PF $5,000 PF $3,600 28.9% 1

Elite Plays – Goran Dragic

Secondary Plays – Willie Reed (Elite if Whiteside is out)

Golden State Warriors at Phoenix Suns – 6:00 PM ET

Golden State Warriors Phoenix Suns
goldenstatenba Vegas Total 225.0 phoenixnba Vegas Total 225.0
Vegas Spread -11.0 Vegas Spread 11.0
Team Total 118.0 Team Total 107.0
Pace of Play 101.70 Pace of Play 99.20
Proj. Starter Stephen Curry Klay Thompson Kevin Durant Draymond Green Zaza Pachulia Proj. Starter Eric Bledsoe Devin Booker T.J. Warren Jared Dudley Tyson Chandler
Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C
2015-16 29 27 28 19 12 2015-16 18 21 14 16 25

Golden State Warriors

This is a prime spot for Stephen Curry to bounce back after being saddled with early fouls against the Pelicans on Friday. Klay Thompson, Kevin Durant, and Draymond Green are also all in elite spots against Pheonix. A tournament team with all four or 3 out of the 4 guys makes sense with a team total of 118, the highest on the slate. In a game with so much scoring expected it’s tough to pinpoint exactly who will do all the damage and we need multiple pieces from this offense. Kevin Durant is averaging 38 minutes a game and looks like a lock for a ton of minutes throughout the season. He’s still affordable but is the most expensive SF on the slate. With his multi-position eligibility, Durant should be considered an elite option as long as he stays priced under $10k on both sites.

With the Warriors expected to blow the Suns out, we can look at Andre Iguodala or Shaun Livingston. Iguodala saw 30 minutes against the Pelicans while Livingston saw 15 minutes. Livingston could get a slight bump in minutes tonight with Patrick McCaw already ruled out. Klay Thompson should also play 36+ minutes tonight because McCaw was being used as his backup.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary Minutes FP/Game FP/Min True Usage DvP
Stephen Curry PG $8,800 PG $8,900 34.1 31.6 0.93 48.8% 29
Klay Thompson SG $6,300 SG $6,500 33.4 14.2 0.43 32.3% 27
Kevin Durant SF $9,700 SF/PF $9,900 36.6 53.0 1.45 42.5% 28
Draymond Green PF $8,300 PF/C $7,500 32.6 51.4 1.58 36.3% 19
Zaza Pachulia C $4,500 C $3,900 20.1 4.1 0.20 23.2% 12
Andre Iguodala SF $4,100 SF $3,600 26.8 9.9 0.37 22.2% 28

Elite Plays – Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Kevin Durant, Draymond Green, Andre Iguodala

Secondary Plays – Shaun Livingston

Phoenix Suns

T.J. Warren has been dominating to start the season and he looks to hold on tightly to his starting position even with P.J. Tucker back in the mix. Warren has to deal with Kevin Durant tonight and I expect him to come back down to earth in this game. Eric Bledsoe has also been playing well, averaging 16.5 PPG in two games. He played 38 minutes against the Thunder on Friday. Bradon Knight also played 35 minutes in that game while Devin Booker played 44. Expect Booker to continue to play a ton of minutes and we can look his way in a high-scoring game. Bledsoe, Knight, and Booker are all solid plays against the Warriors with Knight having the best price and most upside with that price. Eric Bledsoe is now $7k on DK and $7.4k on FD, not leaving much upside to gain.

With the Warriors projected to win by 11 points, we have to look at Marquese Chriss. The Suns and Head Coach Earl Watson have been raving about him and I expect him to play 18-22 minutes tonight in multiple positions. They play him at C in small ball lineups and he’s being used at PF in place of Dudley. Don’t expect Dudley to last long against Draymond Green. Chriss is much more playable on DraftKings where is salary is only $3.2k. On FanDuel he is $4k and makes for a solid PF2.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary Minutes FP/Game FP/Min True Usage DvP
Eric Bledsoe PG $7,400 PG $7,000 29.5 28.7 0.97 44.2% 18
Devin Booker SG $6,100 SG $6,200 24.6 20.9 0.85 33.1% 21
T.J. Warren SF $5,000 SF $5,000 30.4 25.5 0.84 24.1% 14
Jared Dudley PF $3,800 PF $3,600 25.8 9.9 0.38 20.4% 16
Tyson Chandler C $4,200 C $4,300 22.9 19.0 0.83 17.3% 25
Brandon Knight SG $5,800 PG/SG $5,600 25.8 13.7 0.53 39.2% 21

Elite Plays – Brandon Knight, Devin Booker, Marquese Chriss (DK)

Secondary Plays – Eric Bledsoe, T.J. Warren, Marquese Chriss (FD)

Milwaukee Bucks at Detroit Pistons – 6:00 PM ET

Milwaukee Bucks Detroit Pistons
milwaukeenba Vegas Total 194.5 detroitnba Vegas Total 194.5
Vegas Spread 7.5 Vegas Spread -7.5
Team Total 93.5 Team Total 101.0
Pace of Play 98.70 Pace of Play 98.20
Proj. Starter Giannis Antetokounmpo Matthew Dellavedova Jabari Parker Mirza Teletovic Miles Plumlee Proj. Starter Ish Smith Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Marcus Morris Tobias Harris Andre Drummond
Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C
2015-16 12 5 3 5 18 2015-16 9 20 25 26 16

Milwaukee Bucks

Giannis Antetokounmpo has been a monster so far in this young season and is still priced under $9k on DraftKings. He’s an elite option being priced that low but gets a tough low-scoring game tonight against the Pistons, on the second night of a back-to-back. I would be hesitant at using him in this spot with the Bucks having the lowest implied team total on the board. There is not much to love here but Giannis Antetokounmpo and Matthew Dellavedova did make it on to stlcardinals84’s winning GPP team last night. Greg Monroe might be able to make a dent against his former team but it’s better off just avoiding this team altogether.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary Minutes FP/Game FP/Min True Usage DvP
Giannis Antetokounmpo SG $9,500 PG $8,800 38.7 52.3 1.35 33.1% 5
Matthew Dellavedova PG $4,400 PG/SG $3,900 29.1 17.1 0.59 31.6% 12
Jabari Parker PF $6,000 SF/PF $6,200 29.8 21.7 0.73 25.6% 5
Mirza Teletovic SF $3,900 PF $4,000 27.5 10.1 0.37 28.8% 3
Miles Plumlee C $3,700 C $3,000 8.3 6.7 0.81 18.7% 18
Greg Monroe C $5,900 C $5,700 29.3 35.5 1.21 30.3% 18

Elite Plays – N/A

Secondary Plays – N/A

Detroit Pistons

Andre Drummond showed us on Friday why he is such a fantasy monster. He collected 20 rebounds in 28 minutes. He should lead the league in rebounding and there should be plenty to go around tonight as well. Andre Drummond is an elite option as long as he’s priced under $8k on both sites. Marcus Morris and Tobias Harris are also in elite spots against the Bucks. Both players are averaging over 30 minutes a game. Morris is slightly cheaper than Harris, making him the better tournament option. He’s put up 17 points in both games he’s played and should continue to be a strong offensive weapon with Drummond having not developed there yet.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is also playing over 30 minutes a game but is not providing fantasy friendly lines. His salary is also stuck at $4.4 and could have some upside priced in but is too risky since he has not even scored over 12 fantasy points yet this season. His salary has dropped a bit on FanDuel but is simply only a GPP option because of the minutes. He will break out sooner or later, maybe tonight but he’s simply too risky to trust for cash games, unlike Morris and Harris. Ish Smith also had a solid showing against the Magic on Friday but will either be defended by Matthew Dellavedova or Giannis Antetokounmpo, making it too hard to trust him either.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary Minutes FP/Game FP/Min True Usage DvP
Ish Smith PG $6,200 PG $5,200 33.3 19.7 0.59 44.7% 9
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope SG $4,800 SG $4,400 38.8 11.5 0.30 22.7% 20
Marcus Morris SF $5,700 SF $5,100 31.8 32.3 1.02 24.4% 25
Tobias Harris PF $6,200 SF/PF $5,900 36.3 26.5 0.73 26.0% 26
Andre Drummond C $7,900 C $7,900 24.2 21.2 0.88 25.8% 16
Stanley Johnson SF $3,500 SF $3,500 13.7 7.1 0.52 26.6% 25

Elite Plays – Andre Drummond, Marcus Morris, Tobias Harris

Secondary Plays – Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

Los Angeles Lakers at Oklahoma City Thunder – 7:00 PM ET

Los Angeles Lakers Oklahoma City Thunder
lalakersnba Vegas Total 214.0 oklahomacitynba Vegas Total 214.0
Vegas Spread 7.5 Vegas Spread -7.5
Team Total 103.3 Team Total 110.8
Pace of Play 103.30 Pace of Play 103.20
Proj. Starter D’Angelo Russell Nick Young Luol Deng Julius Randle Timofey Mozgov Proj. Starter Russell Westbrook Victor Oladipo Andre Roberson Domantas Sabonis Steven Adams
Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C
2015-16 24 24 7 8 5 2015-16 30 30 27 22 28

Los Angeles Lakers

The Lakers hung tough with the Jazz on Friday but did not produce very fantasy friendly lines. This is a great bounce back spot for them as a team. They will likely still lose this game but the fantasy goodness should be there. D’Angelo Russell has struggled to start the season after having a great preseason. His price has dipped under $7k on both sites and we should see him exceed value in this game. The Lakers have the 6th highest team total and he is their unquestioned leader with a true usage of 36.1%. Luol Deng quietly had 35 DK fantasy points against the Jazz and is a viable tournament option in this game, after playing 35 minutes on Friday.

Julius Randle is also a viable tournament option but could struggle against the length of the Thunder. Jordan Clarkson was on the bench in crunch time in favor of Nick Young against the Jazz and has not played over 25 minutes this season. That could change tonight, but it seems that Clarkson is only a tournament option because of his potential upside. Speaking of Nick Young, Uncle P (no longer Swaggy P) has also started and see 24 or more minutes in both games. He’s a nice under the radar play that is really cheap on DraftKings and min priced on FanDuel. On a tournament team, I would look at Young in a high-scoring game.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary Minutes FP/Game FP/Min True Usage DvP
D’Angelo Russell PG $6,300 PG $6,700 29.1 24.7 0.85 36.1% 24
Nick Young SG $3,500 SG $3,300 26.6 15.1 0.57 22.2% 24
Luol Deng SF $5,100 SF $4,800 28.5 15.5 0.54 22.4% 7
Julius Randle PF $6,200 PF $6,100 29.2 35.4 1.21 27.9% 8
Timofey Mozgov C $4,100 C $4,400 22.1 22.6 1.02 19.8% 5
Jordan Clarkson SG $5,400 PG/SG $5,700 24.6 32.1 1.30 30.6% 24

Elite Plays – D’Angelo Russell, Nick Young (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Luol Deng, Julius Randle, Jordan Clarkson

Oklahoma City Thunder

The question of the day is to play or to fade Westbrook? Yesterday, Anthony Davis was a pretty obvious fade, coming off a back-to-back and playing the Spurs. Tonight, Westbrook is not so obvious of a fade. We saw what he can do, putting up a triple-double and scoring 50 real points. That’s pretty incredicle, and something we might have to get used to as normal. His price has sky-rocketed to 12.2k on DraftKings and is $13k on FanDuel. That’s a tough pill to swallow in terms of price. We will have to find a bunch of cheap options to fit him in on a tournament team. I don’t believe his price is safe for cash with Curry priced so much less than him and a bunch of other nice PG options available. Still, we can’t ignore his upside with 85-100 fantasy points in reach anytime he plays due to his ridiculous true usage of 55.1%.

Victor Oladipo price continues to drop on DraftKings while it stayed the same on FanDuel. He’s considered an elite option against the Lakers and has a true usage of 32.7%. Enes Kanter disappointed a lot of people on Friday night, but he only played 12 minutes while Steven Adams played 40. I don’t expect that big of a difference tonight and Kanter is now cheaper than Adams on DraftKings but still more expensive than him on FanDuel. It’s common knowledge to attack the Lakers with PGs and Cs, so in a tournament team, Kanter looks like the player with more upside and lower ownership.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary Minutes FP/Game FP/Min True Usage DvP
Russell Westbrook PG $13,000 PG $12,200 36.4 57.9 1.59 55.2% 30
Victor Oladipo SG $7,000 PG/SG $6,500 26.1 16.5 0.63 32.7% 30
Andre Roberson SF $4,200 SG/SF $3,800 31.9 19.9 0.62 12.4% 27
Domantas Sabonis PF $3,900 PF $3,600 16.4 9.8 0.60 22
Steven Adams C $4,700 C $5,800 35.6 27.5 0.77 15.3% 28
Enes Kanter PF $5,000 C $5,600 24 35.4 1.48 25.4% 22

Elite Plays – Russell Westbrook, Victor Oladipo, Enes Kanter (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Steven Adams

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About the Author

INSPYR
Chirag Hira (INSPYR)

Chirag Hira, DFS alias “INSPYR”, has been playing fantasy basketball since 2001. He picked up DFS during the 2015 playoffs and has never looked back. In charge of DFS Alerts for the NBA, Chirag takes it as a daily challenge to break news before anyone else in the industry. He graduated with a degree in sports journalism and his career highlights include interviewing Kobe Bryant and Joe Torre. You can find Chirag on Twitter at C_Hira24.