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NBA Grind Down: Thursday, April 20th

by Bryan Pauquette (bryanpauquette) Last Updated 2017-04-21 03:08:43

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ

Cleveland Cavaliers at Indiana Pacers – 7:00 PM ET

Cleveland Cavaliers Indiana Pacers
clevelandnba Vegas Total 211.5 indiananba Vegas Total 211.5
Vegas Spread -2.5 Vegas Spread 2.5
Team Total 107.0 Team Total 104.5
Pace +/- -0.6 Pace +/- -0.3
Proj. Starter Kyrie Irving J.R. Smith LeBron James Kevin Love Tristan Thompson Proj. Starter Jeff Teague Monta Ellis Paul George Thaddeus Young Myles Turner
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 12 9 27 13 22 Adj. DvP 23 29 26 9 17
DRPM -0.24 -1.68 0.13 1.69 2.43 DRPM -2.16 -0.77 1.57 1.93 0.95

Cleveland Cavaliers

To sum up this series for Cleveland we just need to look at the big three; LeBron James, Kyrie Irving, and Kevin Love are all averaging at least 22 ppg and 35.2 mpg while no other player is in double-digits in points or the only other players above 30 mpg are Tristan Thompson (31.5) and J.R. Smith (27.5). J.R. Smith would be in the mid-30s as well had he not injured his hamstring in Game 2, causing him to miss the entire second half. Iman Shumpert didn’t play in Game 1, but he received 20 minutes in Game 2 after Smith went down. Every others player is averaging fewer than 15 mpg.

The Cavs won both at home and now they’re heading to Indiana. Both LeBron James and Kyrie Irving have scored more on the road this season, a 1.7-point bump for Irving to 26.1 and a 1.3-point increase for James to 27.1. Last game, Irving scored 37 points but only managed 40.4 FD points, highlighting his persistent issue of collecting peripheral stats. So far this series, he’s averaged 2.5 rpg and 4.0 apg. He’s never been much of a rebounder, but he brought up his assist rate to 29.7% this season and used it contribute 5.8 assists per game, his best result in the category since LeBron James came back to town. That rate has fallen to 19.7% in the postseason as James has piled up 20 total assists, which comes out to an extra 1.3 above his regular season average. Although it may seem Kyrie’s drop off in the stat is due to playoff-mode LeBron, that may not be the case as Irving equaled his regular season assists average throughout the postseason last year even as James’ average went up 0.8 assists per game. It’s also not caused by a reduction in usage resulting from an increase in James’ rate. While it’s true LeBron’s usage is up 2.2% to 34.0%, Irving’s has skyrocketed 8.6% to 41.1%. Despite this impressive leap, he’s returned the exact same FD ppm as in the regular season (1.09). It seems that his decline in assists may simply be variance, and it’s possible he experiences some positive regression in the games to come. For a guy who’s a little scoring dependent, we have to like his 25.5 FGA per game. He’s been cold from three though, converting 26.3% of his attempts. Considering he’s made 40.1% this season, we should see that rate rise as well. All that said, he’s more expensive than last game and there are a handful of elite point guards on the slate – both Mike Conley and Kyle Lowry are cheaper and Giannis Antetokounmpo has point guard eligibility on DraftKings.

In the end, it might simply come down to points when making the decision on Kyrie. During the regular season, Irving scored less than 30 points in 60 games (83.3% of games played), in those contests he ended with 45 or more FD points (5X on his current $9,000 salary) 10% of the time. Although this didn’t come to fruition last game, when he scored at least 30 points during the season (12 games), he hit 45 FD points 75% of the time, and he hit 6X on 50% of those occasions. In other words, we generally need Kyrie to score 30 or more points to return a solid value on his current price tag. What we know: the Pacers’ defense can’t stop him, he’s taken 25.5 shots per game, averaged exactly 30.0 points, and he’s due for some positive regression from downtown. Plus, for whatever reason, he scored more on the road this season.

The other two members of the big three don’t have the same issues; 46.4% of James’ FD production has come from peripherals and they account for 46.9% of Love’s output. During the season, James set new career highs in assists per game (8.6) and rebounds per game (8.7). In this series, LeBron has averaged a double-double with 28.5 ppg and 10 apg and he’s just shy of a triple-double with 8.0 rpg. In terms of fantasy production, he’s returned at least 55 FD points in both outings. His minutes have been through the roof at 42.5 per game, and as long as these games keep staying close, he’ll likely keep pushing it. Better to play a few extra minutes if it will help secure a victory than losing and being forced to play an additional game. He’s the top guy on the slate and his consistency across the board ensures a higher floor than any other player available.

After a poor first game with 17 points and four rebounds in 31 minutes, Love turned it around in Game 2; he scored 27 on only seven shots and hauled in 11 boards. We saw a similar pattern with his minutes last postseason when he oscillated between the 30-minute and 40-minute marks with little consistency. Love is a reliable rebounder when he’s on the floor, he boasts a 19.5 rebounding rate, which is the eighth-best mark in the league. His upside really comes when he scores as he doesn’t provide many peripheral stats besides rebounding. With Kyrie and LeBron shooting so much and his minutes changing day-to-day, he’s probably not a great cash option at this price. A big boost to his scoring in Game 2 was because he shot an abnormal number of free throws; he got to the line 12 times, which matches his season-high and it’s just the seventh time he’s had double-digit attempts from the stripe this year. In terms of raw points, Love is the top option at power forward on FanDuel, but his price is a little too high. Paul George has PF eligibility on DraftKings and Love is also available as a center on DK, his raw projection is second in both positions on that site. On FD and DK, there are four mid-range options at PF that are reliable enough it’s possible to pay down at the position and pay up elsewhere. At center on DraftKings, Marc Gasol offers a higher raw projection at a lower price. He does offer a high ceiling though, and he’ll likely have relatively low ownership with the mid-range players expected to be popular. Indiana allowed the tenth-highest field goal percentage this season (46.5%) and the fourth-highest three-point percentage (37.6%). Plus, this game has the highest total on the board. All of this makes Love a top tournament target.

Those three are the primary targets on Cleveland, but Tristan Thompson is worth a look as a value guy on this slate. He’s leading the team with 11.5 rebounds per game, but he isn’t shooting very much and that’s probably going to continue. He averaged 5.6 FGA this year and he’s averaged 5.0 in the postseason. We saw the same pattern last year as Kyrie and LeBron take most of the shots. Thompson scored ten or fewer points in 18-of-20 playoff games last season. He doesn’t have much upside, so he may not be worth the risk of rostering.

Assuming Cleveland makes a deep run into the playoffs again this year, J.R. Smith will have a big game or two – he put up 20 or more points in four of 20 games last year, but he also scored ten or less 11 times. There doesn’t seem to be much science to predicting a “J.R. game,” it just happens randomly. There’s hardly any value on this slate and a severe lack of shooting guards. If Smith plays, he can be considered in GPPs, but buyer beware.

If J.R. is ruled out, Iman Shumpert would draw the start. On the season, he’s produced 0.56 FD ppm on a 14.7% usage rate and he didn’t score more than 18 points in any game. While he can be considered as a GPP option on this particular slate, he’s a very risky bet.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Kyrie Irving $9,000 $8,600 $15,900 1.09 35.1 1.7 38.2 2.0 32.0% -2.3% 12 -0.24
J.R. Smith $3,500 $3,900 $7,700 0.56 29.0 3.5 16.2 -0.7 14.4% -1.6% 9 -1.68
LeBron James $11,300 $11,600 $20,800 1.30 37.8 4.5 49.3 7.8 32.9% -2.6% 27 0.13
Kevin Love $8,200 $7,900 $14,600 1.14 31.4 5.0 35.8 0.4 25.2% -2.5% 13 1.69
Tristan Thompson $4,600 $4,900 $9,800 0.77 30.0 -11.5 23.0 -7.2 11.0% 7.5% 22 2.43
Iman Shumpert $3,500 $3,500 $7,000 0.57 25.5 -1.3 14.5 -4.5 14.0% 1.0% 9 N/A

Elite Plays – LeBron James, Kyrie Irving, Kevin Love (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Kevin Love (cash), J.R. Smith (GPP), Iman Shumpert (GPP, if Smith out)

Indiana Pacers

As expected, Paul George has put the team on his back in this series. His usage is up 1.0% to 31.7% while is per-minute production has increased 25.7% to 1.32 FD ppm. Among the starters, he and Thaddeus Young are the only ones to exceed their average fantasy production rates in this series. Both Jeff Teague and Myles Turner have been severely underperforming from that perspective; Teague is down 0.22 FD ppm to 0.78 while Turner’s rate has decreased by 0.18 FD ppm to 0.77. Both guys have seen their usages decrease as well – Teague is off by 1.8% to 21.5% while Turner has lost 4.4% to bring his rate to 16.0%. Part of this may be due to the increased workload of Lance Stephenson. Including the short time he was with them during the regular season, when these three shared the court, Teague and Turner were down in both stats. Over the two games in the playoffs, the effect has become more drastic as Stephenson himself has turned in 1.32 FD ppm on a 22.2% usage rate. He’s nearly matched Teague in assists – Stephenson has seven and Teague has eight – despite playing 8.8 fewer minutes per game. Meanwhile, Paul George is leading the team with 7.0 assists per game, well above his 3.3 apg rate in the regular season.

A big part of Teague’s production and upside comes through assists. He hit double-digits in the stat three times on the Cavs this season, but the dynamic of the team in the playoffs, with Paul George taking over and players trying to create their own shots, may prevent him from being successful there. So far, Indiana has had an assist rate of 53.0%, which would have been 28th in the league in the NBA during the regular season. Teague’s personal assist rate has declined a whopping 20.4% to 16.0% while George’s has risen 10.4% to 26.5%. On the positive side, he’s been a more aggressive scorer, averaging 19.0 ppg (he had 23 points on 8-of-12 shooting last game), which is a nice bump above his 15.3 average. Of his 11 made field goals, ten of them have been unassisted, which perhaps demonstrates the current mindset of the team of creating shots instead of emphasizing ball movement. There’s another factor at play here: Teague’s injury issues. He played Game 1 on a tweaked ankle and his wrist got banged up in Game 2. Although he has a favorable matchup on paper, he hasn’t quite delivered on his salary yet this series and based on trends and injuries, there’s certainly a risk factor involved. With several strong point guards available, Teague is a secondary option and may be better for tournaments at this point. He still has plenty of upside, especially when he can score like he did last game, but he has to contribute assists.

As mentioned, this hasn’t been an issue for Paul George, who’s more than doubled his average in the playoffs with exactly seven assists each game. He’s scored 30.5 points per game as well, an increase of 6.8 ppg, while essentially matching his normal rebounding rate. All that said, his price may be a little too high for this slate, at least in tournaments. Giannis Antetokounmpo is just $500 more on FanDuel and $400 cheaper on DraftKings and Kawhi Leonard, who’s dominated Memphis, provides a savings of $1,400 on FD and $1,200 on DK. There’s also mid-range option Khris Middleton at small forward and a handful of power forwards on DK with price tags between $5.4-6.3k. On a night with few value options available, reliable mid-range targets are important. George has been playing some excellent basketball, but on his current salary, it’s difficult for him to provide the big returns we’d like to see in GPPs. Still, he’s been consistent enough to be a top cash option.

Thaddeus Young is one of those mid-range options at power forward. After a disappointing opening game, he followed up with a really nice performance with 16 points and four steals. He was able to get inside on Cleveland, scoring 5-of-7 from within five feet of the hoop. During the course of the season, the Cavs allowed the ninth-highest field goal percentage in that zone (61.2%), so Young could continue to find success. He only managed three rebounds, but we should see that number improve. Prior to Game 2, he had at least eight rebounds in eight of nine games. Unlike Young, Myles Turner has struggled when attacking the basket, he’s just 5-of-14 from within five feet. He should be able to do better and he’s taken at least ten shots per game so far. Although he only had five rebounds last game, he’s tied with George for the team lead with 6.5 per game. Cleveland was 19th in rebounding this season (49.7%) so Turner should pick up the pace on the glass. Both Young and Turner are averaging over 33 minutes per game, and they should continue to log heavy minutes.

The Pacers have a pair of shooting guards in play tonight. Lance Stephenson has been doing well with his 26.6 mpg, returning 1.32 FD ppm. That rate seems a little above his head. His price has come up to $5k+ on both major sites, which would normally seem too high. However, he’s clearly the best mid-range option on this slate as there are no other appealing options below $8k. Monta Ellis has started each game, but he plays a little less than Stephenson (26.1 mpg) and his production is far worse at 0.52 FD ppm. He’s taken 12 shots total this series and doesn’t seem like a great target at all. Unfortunately, he’s in play given the slate, but guys like Danny Green, J.R. Smith, and even Tony Snell (DK only) look like better options. It may just be better to pay up at the position.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Jeff Teague $6,800 $6,900 $13,000 1.00 32.4 -0.1 32.4 -2.3 26.1% -1.1% 23 -2.16
Monta Ellis $3,900 $4,300 $8,500 0.66 27.0 -2.6 17.9 -3.8 18.1% -2.4% 29 -0.77
Paul George $10,000 $10,500 $18,900 1.05 35.9 2.1 37.7 10.3 28.4% 0.0% 26 1.57
Thaddeus Young $5,400 $5,600 $11,200 0.77 30.2 3.5 23.2 6.2 16.2% 0.6% 9 1.93
Myles Turner $6,700 $5,500 $10,800 0.95 31.4 -0.8 29.9 1.9 18.5% 0.7% 17 0.95
Lance Stephenson $5,000 $5,100 $10,100 0.74 20.1 2.6 14.8 4.6 21.9% -0.3% 29 N/A

Elite Plays – Paul George, Lance Stephenson (cash)

Secondary Plays – Lance Stephenson (GPP), Jeff Teague, Thaddeus Young, Myles Turner, Monta Ellis (GPP)

Toronto Raptors at Milwaukee Bucks – 8:00 PM ET

Toronto Raptors Milwaukee Bucks
torontonba Vegas Total 196.0 milwaukeenba Vegas Total 196.0
Vegas Spread 1.5 Vegas Spread -1.5
Team Total 97.3 Team Total 98.8
Pace +/- -2.0 Pace +/- -1.6
Proj. Starter Kyle Lowry DeMar DeRozan DeMarre Carroll Serge Ibaka Jonas Valanciunas Proj. Starter Malcolm Brogdon Tony Snell Khris Middleton Giannis Antetokounmpo Thon Maker
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 16 7 10 7 15 Adj. DvP 11 3 3 5 10
DRPM -0.73 -0.79 0.54 1.49 -0.53 DRPM 0.62 -2.21 1.09 0.84 0.71

Toronto Raptors

Kyle Lowry was definitely more aggressive in Game 2 than Game 1, scoring 22 points and contributing five assists – he also hit the shot that sealed the victory with seconds to go. Both of those numbers are below his season averages though, and he only shot 12 times. He did make 50% of his looks, which was great to see considering his past postseason troubles. While he’s leading the team with 5.5 apg this series, Serge Ibaka had more than him last game. As one might expect from the results of this series, Lowry’s usage is down while Ibaka’s is up and the same goes for their per-minute production rates. Lowry’s has slid 0.30 DK ppm to 0.83 and Ibaka’s has climbed 0.27 DK ppm to 1.15. These two and DeMar DeRozan are the only ones averaging more than 35 minutes per game, while the next closest player is P.J. Tucker with 28.2 and after that Jonas Valanciunas, Cory Joesph, DeMarre Carroll, and Patrick Patterson are all between 20-23 minutes. Toronto has laid out their strategy pretty clearly and we should expect them to continue to operate in this manner.

Lowry, DeRozan, and Ibaka are the only guys in the double-digits in points and Ibaka leads the team with 10.5 boards per game. Valanciunas is nearly averaging a double-double (9.5 rebounds and 9.5 points) and he’s delivered an elite 23.6% rebounding rate. It would be nice if he got enough time on the court to make use of that, but he’s not, as coach Dwane Casey has opted to focus on small ball lineups with Ibaka or Patrick Patterson at center. This means JV should only be considered for tournaments on the chance he gets a minutes bump based on good performance. Patterson played 30 minutes in Game 2, turning his time into 22.75 DK points. Considering his price of $2,600 on DraftKings, he’s an interesting tournament punt on a night where value is desperately needed. During the regular season, he produced 0.68 DK ppm on a 13.3% usage rate. Clearly, he’s not the most exciting prospect, but given the Raptors won by giving him extended minutes, he could get a similar workload again tonight – $2,600 for someone playing 30 minutes is a good deal.

Of course, the main three targets are DeRozan, Lowry, and Ibaka. With Ibaka on the rise, DeRozan’s usage has fallen 3.3% to 33.0% and his per-minute production is down 0.20 DK ppm. Despite the added minutes, he’s only attempted 19.5 field goals per game after averaging 20.9 during the regular season. Although we only have a small sample size featuring DeRozan, Lowry, and Ibaka on the court together during the regular season (72.3 minutes), during that time DeRozan’s per-36 pace decreased by 4.78 DK points as he took 3.8 fewer shots. If we include the data from the playoffs (120.5 minutes total), his pace is further off his average: 4.12 fewer shots leading to his fantasy pace falling by 6.59 DK points to 34.95 per 36. Lowry’s pace drops 3.94 DK points to 36.52 while Ibaka’s is down 1.09 DK points to 31.37. Although it’s not a large data set, it seems pretty evident these three cut into each other’s production. Based on their current salaries, Ibaka presents the best points-per-dollar option, but Lowry and DeRozan are still the guys with the highest ceilings that come with their ability to take over games. DeRozan is the clear top option at shooting guard on DraftKings, and he remains in the top two at FanDuel. Even in the current situation, he’s worth paying up for considering the lack of options. The most alarming concern with DeRozan, even more than his recent decline in production, is Toronto’s implied team total of 97.3 points, which is 9.7 below their average. Since he’s a big scorer, this is an ominous sign.

Lowry has stiffer competition. Although his past playoff performance shouldn’t be too much of a factor, as this year feels different with the way he’s played all season, Ibaka’s presence may be more of an issue than it originally seemed. Given his discount off Kyrie Irving and his ability to contribute more peripherals, Lowry remains an elite option in FanDuel cash games. However, his upside may be capped by the Raptors’ primary lineup, which damages his tournament appeal.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Kyle Lowry $8,200 $8,100 $15,000 1.05 37.4 -4.2 39.4 -3.2 27.3% 0.1% 16 -0.73
DeMar DeRozan $8,200 $8,000 $14,700 1.12 35.4 0.1 39.6 -2.5 34.2% 1.9% 7 -0.79
DeMarre Carroll $3,500 $2,800 $6,000 0.66 26.1 -5.8 17.2 -8.5 15.3% -1.0% 10 0.54
Serge Ibaka $5,800 $6,300 $12,600 0.89 30.7 -0.7 27.2 -9.0 20.1% -2.4% 7 1.49
Jonas Valanciunas $5,300 $4,800 $9,500 1.00 25.8 -1.9 25.8 -2.3 18.7% -0.5% 15 -0.53
P.J. Tucker $3,600 $3,800 $7,400 0.65 27.6 -4.7 17.9 -3.7 12.0% -1.3% 10 N/A

Elite Plays – DeMar DeRozan, Kyle Lowry (FD Cash)

Secondary Plays – Kyle Lowry (FD GPP, DK), Serge Ibaka, Jonas Valanciunas (GPP), Patrick Patterson (DK GPP), P.J. Tucker (GPP)

Milwaukee Bucks

Giannis Antetokounmpo leads the Bucks in points (26.0) and rebounds (11.5) per game, and he’s second in assists (5.0). His usage is up 2.7% as compared to the regular season and he’s averaged 21 shots per game, 5.3 FGAs above his normal rate. He’s locked and loaded.

Toronto keeps trying to stop him by using a small ball lineup and he simply smiles, says “thank you” and grabs a bunch of rebounds. He pulled down 15 last game while he got tons of run without Valanciunas on the floor. All in all the Greek Freak played 42 minutes and he should keep pushing 40. He was just 9-for-24 in Game 2, so he could’ve scored more than 24 points. He’s one of the premiere options on tonight’s slate and offers a better points-per-dollar projection than the other high-priced targets, LeBron James, Paul George, Kawhi Leonard, and Kyrie Irving. He’s the top tournament option, although an argument could be made for his fellow elite small forwards in cash as they’re generally more consistent.

His teammate Khris Middleton is one of the best mid-range options on the slate as he’s averaging 41 minutes per game. During the regular season, Middleton returned 0.91 DK ppm on a 24.5% usage rate, those rates have fallen in the playoffs to 0.72 and 22.4%, respectively. While the dropoff makes sense with Antetokounmpo’s usage on the rise, he’s had a floor of 28 DK points with the minutes bump and his per-minute production should climb a bit. He’s taking 14.5 shots per game and he’s able to provide peripherals, he just hasn’t put it all together in a game yet. For example, in Game 1, he had nine assists but went 4-for-15 from the field. In Game 2, he scored 20 points but added just two assists. With his current workload, he’s a good deal at his price and he will put some solid games together in this series.

The only other guy above 30 mpg is Malcolm Brogdon (35.8). Coach Jason Kidd loves running Brogdon for extended minutes and he’ll continue to do so. His usage is up a bit over his season average, but his per-minute production has fallen to 0.67 DK ppm from 0.85. He’s averaged 12 shots per game, 3.5 more than his average, but he’s shooting 37.5%. He’s due for some positive regression. With Antetokounmpo, Middleton, and Greg Monroe hogging up usage, Brogdon’s ceiling his capped. He needs to be contributing a bunch of assists to offer big returns on his salary, but most of that work is being done by Giannis and Khris.

Similar to Giannis, Monroe has been feasting on Toronto’s small ball lineups. He’s produced 1.33 DK ppm, which leads the team. Despite averaging 23.8 mpg, he’s second on the team in points (16.0) and rebounds (9.5) per game. Unfortunately, his minutes just aren’t secure. After playing 26 in Game 1, he only got on the court for 22 in Game 2. Coach Kidd just isn’t trustworthy, which means neither is Monroe. He’s an interesting tournament option because if he does get an extended run, he could crush, but that’s a risky proposition.

Finally, we have to take a look at Tony Snell as he has shooting guard eligibility on DraftKings. He’s averaging 12.5 points and 27.4 minutes per game in this series. He’s also contributed 3.0 rebounds and 1.5 assists. He played 30 minutes last game, but there’s no telling what Kidd will do tonight. Still, given the selection at SG, he’s in play for tournaments as he has a realistic shot of pushing towards 30 minutes again tonight.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Malcolm Brogdon $5,400 $5,000 $9,800 0.79 26.4 -2.1 21.0 -2.6 20.5% -0.3% 11 0.62
Tony Snell $3,700 $3,900 $7,700 0.52 29.2 -1.2 15.1 -1.3 12.0% 0.5% 3 -2.21
Khris Middleton $5,900 $6,500 $12,300 0.84 30.7 0.9 25.8 -3.8 23.0% -3.1% 3 1.09
Giannis Antetokounmpo $10,500 $10,100 $18,000 1.28 35.6 -1.5 45.7 -6.6 29.2% -1.3% 5 0.84
Thon Maker $3,600 $2,900 $6,000 0.82 9.9 9.2 8.1 6.2 16.9% -2.4% 10 0.71
Greg Monroe $5,900 $5,200 $10,200 1.09 22.5 -2.6 24.6 -4.3 24.1% 3.9% 10 N/A
Matthew Dellavedova $3,600 $3,100 $6,000 0.63 26.1 -2.8 16.5 -3.7 19.4% 1.7% 11 N/A

Elite Plays – Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton

Secondary Plays – Malcolm Brogdon, Greg Monroe (GPP), Tony Snell (GPP)

San Antonio Spurs at Memphis Grizzlies – 9:30 PM ET

San Antonio Spurs Memphis Grizzlies
sanantonionba Vegas Total 184.5 memphisnba Vegas Total 184.5
Vegas Spread -3.5 Vegas Spread 3.5
Team Total 94.0 Team Total 90.5
Pace +/- -4.0 Pace +/- -2.3
Proj. Starter Tony Parker Danny Green Kawhi Leonard LaMarcus Aldridge Dewayne Dedmon Proj. Starter Mike Conley Wayne Selden Vince Carter JaMychal Green Marc Gasol
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 6 10 6 3 1 Adj. DvP 8 12 2 2 2
DRPM -0.50 0.67 0.23 0.59 0.84 DRPM -0.79 2.10 0.85 1.25 4.86

San Antonio Spurs

The Spurs have their big two and then there’s everybody else. Kawhi Leonard and LaMarcus Aldridge are the only guys averaging 36+ minutes per game while the next-closest player, Pau Gasol, is logging 27.2 per night. Without Tony Allen available for Memphis, Leonard has been working the Grizzlies. He’s scored more than 30 points in both games and he made it a double-double in Game 2 with 11 boards. Primarily due to his performance, the Grizzlies now have a 118.2 defensive rating through two games in the playoffs. Although that’s very high, it isn’t terribly surprising that they’re performing poorly; in the second half of the season, they were ranked 20th in the stat (108.8). During the same stretch, they were 16th in opponent field goal percentage (46.0%) and simply couldn’t stop the three-ball as they allowed the 11th-most 3PAs per game (28.3) and the fifth-highest three-point percentage (37.8%). Although Leonard has only connected on 1-of-5 threes in this series, he’s on fire from everywhere else. Overall, he’s 19-of-23 on two-point shots and he’s gotten to the foul line a ridiculous 28 times – and he made all 28 shots. Obviously, this is an unsustainable rate, he’s scored 69 points on 28 shots. Fortunately, 37.2% of his FD production normally comes from peripherals, while only 26.8% have come that way so far in this series. Even if he can’t maintain his scoring pace, he should make up for it through rebounds, assists, and steals. The defensive matchup clearly isn’t bothering him and he’s a very nice discount off George on both sites. His biggest concern is the slow pace, this one is projected to have 5.4 fewer possessions than the Cavs-Pacers game.

The second member of their big two, Aldridge, put up a dud last game, scoring 11 points on eight shots while pulling in four total rebounds across 42 minutes. Considering he averaged 14.6 FGAs per game in 32 minutes during the regular season, the lack of shooting is bound to correct itself. While he wasn’t a dominant rebounder by any means, as he had a 12.7% rebounding rate during the season, he averaged 7.3 per game in fewer minutes. As with Leonard, the pace of the game may be a bigger problem than the Grizzlies’ defense. Partly due to that, Vegas has the Spurs’ implied total set at 94 points, 11.3 below their average. However, Aldridge’s price is too low, especially considering he’ll push 40 minutes. Recency bias may suppress his ownership, but he projects as our top points-per-dollar option at power forward on both major sites.

One of the most notable changes on this team is the sharp rise in usage and production from Tony Parker. During the regular season, Parker had a usage rate of 22.5% but in the playoffs, he’s rivaled Leonard at the top with a 34.1% rate and his per-minute production has jumped 0.20 FD ppm to 0.95. Despite averaging 22.9 minutes per game, he’s taken 13 FGAs per game (which equals Aldridge’s output) and he’s 5-for-7 from three. His bump in usage is mainly a reflection of his scoring as his assists have been down; he’s contributed three total in this series against a 4.5 per-game average this season. Parker has actually been playing fewer minutes than he did this year, and it’s unlikely he can maintain this scoring pace. Still, it’s hard to ignore that usage when he costs $4.2k on FanDuel. Although he’s not an ideal value play, as his minutes put a severe drag on his ceiling, there aren’t really any of those on this slate.

Danny Green and Paul Gasol both present possible punts as well. Green has hit 4-of-7 threes in this series and his per-minute production is up 0.10 FD ppm to 0.73, but his usage has dropped into the single digits (8.9%). Last game, he played 29 minutes and should push for that area again tonight if the game stays close. He’s a scoring dependent player, so the Vegas total is a problem, but Memphis has struggled from three and he’s under $4k. Gasol received 30 minutes off the bench and scored 10 points. His usage is down 8.7% to 14.1% so far in this series, but he should experience some positive regression. Again, the pace and total are a concern, but he averaged 26.91 FD points in 25.4 mpg this season. Even in a less than ideal spot, with the extended minutes, he’s a potential tournament option under $5k.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Tony Parker $4,200 $4,600 $9,100 0.74 25.2 -5.1 18.6 -2.4 23.1% 2.5% 6 -0.50
Danny Green $3,800 $4,000 $7,800 0.62 26.6 -6.7 16.5 -1.7 13.8% 0.7% 10 0.67
Kawhi Leonard $8,600 $9,300 $17,300 1.22 33.4 -8.6 40.6 -13.7 30.9% -1.6% 6 0.23
LaMarcus Aldridge $6,100 $6,200 $12,300 0.96 32.4 -6.3 31.1 -7.3 24.0% -0.7% 3 0.59
Dewayne Dedmon $3,500 $2,600 $6,000 0.89 17.5 1.3 15.6 1.1 12.0% 3.1% 1 0.84
Pau Gasol $4,900 $4,700 $9,200 1.06 25.4 -3.9 26.9 -2.4 21.5% 4.2% 1 N/A

Elite Plays – Kawhi Leonard, LaMarcus Aldridge

Secondary Plays – Tony Parker, Pau Gasol (GPP), Danny Green

Memphis Grizzlies

Mike Conley had a big game last time out, scoring 24 points and contributing eight assists. Over the course of this series, his assist rate is through the roof; he’s assisted on 49.0% of his teammate’s field goals while he’s on the floor. That rate would’ve been good for third in the league this year. While it’s much higher than normal, he still had a 34.5% assist rate during the season. With the playoff dynamic of this offense, it seems like he could continue to perform a similar function for the rest of the series. He received 38 minutes last game and he should continue to work into the high-30s. His per-minute production has seen a 0.10 bump in FD ppm, bringing it to 1.16. His price on both sites is very favorable and he’s a top cash and tournament option at his position, despite their team’s implied total (90.5, 10.0 below their average).

Gasol had a down game on Monday night, but that was mostly due to his poor shooting; he was 4-for-15 from the field. He was successful when working inside, converting 4-of-7 attempts from within eight feet, but he was 0-for-8 everywhere else. On the season, he made 40.9% of his shots from 8+ feet away, so we can definitely expect him to make more. He’ll keep shooting as well; his usage is up 1.7% to lead the team with a 30.1% rate and he played 39 minutes last game. He’s the premiere option at center tonight.

After struggling to six points on 13 shots in Game 1, Zach Randolph found his mid-range game, connecting on 6-of-9 attempts in Game 2 on his way to 18 points overall. This is a promising sign as the Spurs allowed the sixth-highest field goal percentage from mid-range in the second half of the season. He made it a double-double with 10 boards across 36 minutes of action. That represents a 10-minute increase from Game 1, which was a blowout. During the season, he averaged 26.29 FD points in 24.5 minutes per game. He’s had the second-highest usage rate on the team in the playoffs as well (29.4%). It looks like they’ll need to give him an extended run to have a shot with the Spurs. Although he should keep scoring if he continues to launch from the mid-range zone, as opposed to attacking the rim, rebounding will be difficult. The game will be played at a glacial pace and San Antonio had the sixth-best rebounding rate this season (51.4%). That said, if he keeps pushing to 36 minutes, which he should, he’ll be a great fantasy target based on his current salary.

Coach Mike Fizdale said he’ll be making changes to the starting lineup tonight. It’s possible Randolph is moved into the starting five and/or James Ennis could replace Wayne Selden, who’s produced 0.35 FD ppm as a starter in this series. Ennis only has small forward eligibility on both FD and DK, so he’s really not a strong option. However, he has produced 0.74 FD ppm to Vince Carter’s 0.38. More than likely, that’s due to Ennis playing on the second unit while Carter is in with the starters (and Randolph) most of the night. Carter isn’t particularly appealing either because, as mentioned, he spends a lot of time with three guys who command usage rates around 30%. There isn’t much left for him. Overall, this isn’t a good team to target for value plays; it’s probably better to focus on the top three players and find value elsewhere.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Mike Conley $7,300 $7,500 $13,800 1.06 33.2 -6.4 35.1 -5.7 29.7% 2.7% 8 -0.79
Wayne Selden $3,500 $2,800 $6,000 0.47 16.9 10.6 7.9 5.3 15.7% 0.2% 12 2.10
Vince Carter $3,500 $3,600 $7,100 0.66 24.7 0.2 16.3 -2.2 15.5% -2.1% 2 0.85
JaMychal Green $3,500 $3,700 $7,300 0.73 27.3 -5.9 19.9 -8.2 14.4% -0.2% 2 1.25
Marc Gasol $7,100 $7,100 $13,300 1.06 34.2 -5.0 36.2 -2.9 27.9% -0.4% 2 4.86
Zach Randolph $5,400 $5,400 $10,600 1.07 24.5 -0.5 26.3 0.1 28.7% 3.3% 2 N/A

Elite Plays – Mike Conley, Marc Gasol, Zach Randolph

Secondary Plays – James Ennis (GPP, if starting), Vince Carter (GPP)

About the Author

bryanpauquette
Bryan Pauquette (bryanpauquette)

Bryan Pauquette’s peak in life came in 2002 when he struck out live on the YES network in the New York State Little League championship. Unfortunately, his team lost to a squad that cheated their way to the U.S. Semi-Finals, so he feels forever robbed of a chance to go down swinging on ESPN. As it turns out, he’s much better at fantasy sports than actual ones and he’s been an avid cash game and small-field tournament player since 2015. He joined RotoGrinders in Summer Sixteen as part of their alerts and projections team. Outside of RG, Bryan is a television writer and producer based in the City of Angels (he does not root for any of their teams, but he’s thinking about the Chargers because he’s giving up on the Jets).