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NBA Grind Down: Thursday, December 29th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-12-30 03:33:21

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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Miami Heat at Charlotte Hornets – 7:00 PM ET

Miami Heat Charlotte Hornets
miaminba Vegas Total 199.0 charlottenba Vegas Total 199.0
Vegas Spread 6.0 Vegas Spread -6.0
Team Total 96.5 Team Total 102.5
Pace +/- 0.1 Pace +/- -1.9
Proj. Starter Goran Dragic Josh Richardson Justise Winslow Derrick Williams Hassan Whiteside Proj. Starter Kemba Walker Nicolas Batum Michael Kidd-Gilchrist Marvin Williams Cody Zeller
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 18 12 23 16 24 DvP 3 7 13 12 20
DRPM -0.79 0.47 2.00 0.55 1.83 DRPM -2.55 -0.43 0.55 0.26 1.16

Miami Heat

Happy Thursday everyone! Not only are we one day away from the weekend, but the NBA is treating us to a rare six game slate on a Thursday. The Heat are going nowhere fast with a 10-22 record this season. Their roster has more talent than their record would indicate, but this is clearly a team that is in rebuilding mode. We shouldn’t be surprised if they decide to make some moves before the trade deadline. Tonight they head to Charlotte to take on a Hornets’ team that is playing in the second half of a back-to-back. This is not a great matchup for fantasy production though, as the Hornets are ranked 11th in points allowed per game and seventh in defensive efficiency. Of the 12 teams in action tonight, the Heat have the second lowest implied total on the board.

The key situation to monitor here is the status of Goran Dragic. He missed Tuesday’s game with a back injury, but he traveled with the team and is hoping to play tonight. He is probably closer to probable than he is to doubtful, but if he is forced to sit out, Josh Richardson would draw another start at point guard. He played extremely well against the Thunder the other night and the Heat want to develop him as much as they can this season. Tyler Johnson would also benefit if Dragic is unable to suite up. If Dragic is active, he makes an interesting GPP play against Kemba Walker, who has a DRPM of -0.79 this season. Justise Winslow has played at least 35 minutes in four straight games, scoring at least 21 fantasy points in each. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is an excellent defender, but the minute upside puts Winslow in play in all formats. Hassan Whiteside struggled against the Thunder on Tuesday, but should bounce back nicely against a Hornets’ defense that is ranked 24th against centers this season.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Goran Dragic $7,300 $7,000 0.96 34.4 0.3 33.0 -1.4 29.5% 0.4% 18 -0.79
Josh Richardson $4,400 $5,000 0.63 30.2 5.4 18.9 3.5 19.2% -1.6% 12 0.47
Justise Winslow $5,100 $5,600 0.70 35.3 3.0 24.6 6.5 20.7% 0.3% 23 2.00
Derrick Williams $3,500 $3,000 0.72 16.0 -4.3 11.5 0.5 20.4% -3.1% 16 0.55
Hassan Whiteside $8,900 $8,600 1.20 33.9 0.8 40.7 -6.6 22.3% -3.3% 24 1.83
Tyler Johnson $5,600 $5,400 0.83 31.1 0.2 25.8 -2.2 21.4% -0.3% 18 N/A
James Johnson $5,000 $5,100 0.89 24.4 0.0 21.6 8.0 21.4% 8.5% 23 N/A

Elite Plays – Josh Richardson (if Dragic is out), Hassan Whiteside, Justise Winslow

Secondary Plays – Josh Richardson (if Dragic is active), Goran Dragic (if active), Tyler Johnson, James Johnson

Charlotte Hornets

The Hornets picked up a big win over the Magic last night and most of the starters didn’t have to play much in the fourth quarter. They are now 18-14 overall and boast a 10-6 record at home. The Hornets draw a tougher matchup tonight, as they host a Heat team that is ranked 24th in pace of play and seventh in defensive efficiency. Charlotte comes into the game as 6-point favorites, but have an implied total of only 102.5 points. Their team total is the sixth lowest in the slate and 2.2 points below their season average.

Game log watchers will be disappointed with Kemba Walker 31 fantasy points last night against the Magic, but he did it in 25 minutes of action. He should see minutes in the mid-30s tonight against the Heat. Goran Dragic has one of the worst DRPM’s of any point guard in the NBA this season at -2.55. Walker also averages 4.5 more fantasy points at home than he does on the road. Nicolas Batum has scored at least 41 fantasy points in six of his last seven games. His price is up and his matchup is subpar, but it’s hard to ignore the numbers that he has been putting up recently. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Jeremy Lamb would both benefit if Marco Belinelli is ruled out again. Both would become borderline elite plays at their respective positions. Cody Zeller just continues to produce at center for the Hornets. If he can stay out of foul trouble, he should see around 30 minutes against a Heat defense that is ranked 24th against centers.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Kemba Walker $7,600 $7,800 1.08 33.5 2.8 36.2 0.9 30.4% -0.4% 3 -2.55
Nicolas Batum $7,600 $7,800 0.95 34.8 3.1 33.0 11.9 22.7% 1.4% 7 -0.43
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist $4,700 $4,800 0.76 28.9 3.6 22.0 7.1 14.5% 0.0% 13 0.55
Marvin Williams $4,400 $4,400 0.72 27.5 -0.2 19.7 0.4 17.1% -0.5% 12 0.26
Cody Zeller $5,200 $4,900 0.89 26.2 2.3 23.3 5.5 16.9% 0.6% 20 1.16
Jeremy Lamb $3,700 $3,800 1.05 16.1 0.3 16.8 -3.1 24.2% 1.4% 7 N/A
Frank Kaminsky $4,200 $3,700 0.82 24.8 -4.1 20.4 -2.0 21.3% 3.7% 12 N/A

Elite Plays – Kemba Walker, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist

Secondary Plays – Nicolas Batum, Jeremy Lamb, Cody Zeller, Marvin Williams

Boston Celtics at Cleveland Cavaliers – 8:00 PM ET

Boston Celtics Cleveland Cavaliers
bostonnba Vegas Total 215.0 clevelandnba Vegas Total 215.0
Vegas Spread 6.0 Vegas Spread -6.0
Team Total 104.5 Team Total 110.5
Pace +/- 0.2 Pace +/- -0.2
Proj. Starter Isaiah Thomas Avery Bradley Jae Crowder Amir Johnson Al Horford Proj. Starter Kyrie Irving DeAndre Liggins LeBron James Kevin Love Tristan Thompson
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 16 25 13 3 13 DvP 16 6 24 20 23
DRPM -1.85 1.11 1.59 2.08 1.93 DRPM -3.15 -2.31 1.26 1.07 2.10

Boston Celtics

The Celtics are looking for their third win in a row, as they take on the Cavaliers in Cleveland. While playing the defending champions on their home floor is never an ideal situation, the Cavaliers haven’t been nearly as dominant defensively this season. They are currently ranked between 11th and 14th in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. Boston comes into this game as a 6-point underdog with an implied total of 104.5 points.

The best way to beat the Cavaliers is to attack them in the backcourt. For all of the accolades Kyrie Irving gets about his offensive skill set, his defense could certainly use some work. He has a DRPM of -1.85 and the Cavaliers are ranked 16th in fantasy points allowed to point guards. In his last two games against the Cavaliers, Isaiah Thomas has scored 38.6 and 39.6 fantasy points. Avery Bradley is also in a good spot, although DeAndre Liggins is a better defender than J.R. Smith. Bradley is coming off of his best game in two weeks, scoring 42.4 fantasy points against the Grizzlies. Jae Crowder is a viable mid-range small forward. He should see minutes in the mid-30s if this game stays close. Al Horford has shown a massive ceiling this season, but the Cavaliers have been tough on opposing backcourts. Horford is still worth a look in tournaments, but there are better plays for cash games.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Isaiah Thomas $8,400 $7,700 1.17 33.3 0.2 38.9 -1.3 35.0% 1.8% 16 -1.85
Avery Bradley $6,700 $6,100 0.90 35.1 -1.1 31.5 -0.8 22.0% 0.6% 25 1.11
Jae Crowder $5,300 $5,200 0.77 31.4 1.0 24.2 -3.3 16.6% -2.7% 13 1.59
Amir Johnson $4,100 $4,000 0.80 20.2 4.6 16.1 10.3 14.7% 1.5% 3 2.08
Al Horford $7,700 $6,700 1.06 33.1 0.7 35.1 -0.4 23.1% 1.4% 13 1.93
Marcus Smart $4,900 $4,500 0.75 29.7 -2.7 22.3 3.6 20.1% 2.7% 16 N/A
Kelly Olynyk $3,600 $3,400 0.81 20.7 -2.7 16.7 -2.8 18.0% -3.4% 13 N/A

Elite Plays – Isaiah Thomas (DK), Avery Bradley (DK)

Secondary Plays – Isaiah Thomas (FD), Avery Bradley (FD), Jae Crowder, Al Horford, Marcus Smart

Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cavaliers picked up a big win against the Warriors on Christmas and then made a strong case for LeBron James in the MVP race. On Tuesday night, they rested James and then lost by 16 points to the Pistons. They’ll look to start a new winning streak tonight and since this isn’t the front or back end of a back-to-back, we can expect all of their starters to be in the lineup. The Celtics are a decent matchup overall, as they are ranked 14th in points allowed per game, 16th in defensive efficiency, and 27th in rebounding differential. The Cavaliers come into the game with an implied total of 110.5 points, which is the second highest in the slate.

Kyrie Irving grades out as an elite point guard option, especially on DraftKings at a price of only $7,600. He has topped 50 fantasy points three times in his last six games and gets to square off against one of the worst individual defenders in the NBA in Isaiah Thomas. The Celtics will likely use Avery Bradley on Irving as well, but he hasn’t been nearly as effective of a defender this season. LeBron James is one of the safest targets on the board. We can basically rely on 45-60 fantasy points and with the spread set at only six points, I like his chances to reach the higher end of that range. The best way to beat the Celtics this season has been in the frontcourt. Kevin Love hasn’t been great since returning from injury, but he has scored at least 33 fantasy points in three straight games.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Kyrie Irving $8,300 $7,600 1.05 34.5 -1.4 36.2 9.4 30.8% -0.1% 16 -3.15
DeAndre Liggins $3,500 $3,000 0.50 15.1 3.9 7.5 -3.0 11.1% -2.9% 6 -2.31
LeBron James $10,300 $10,100 1.30 36.9 -3.2 47.9 -1.6 33.1% 2.7% 24 1.26
Kevin Love $8,300 $8,200 1.21 31.7 -4.1 38.2 -3.8 26.2% 1.1% 20 1.07
Tristan Thompson $5,100 $4,700 0.82 28.6 -2.0 23.3 1.5 10.1% 3.4% 23 2.10

Elite Plays – Kyrie Irving, LeBron James, Kevin Love (FD)

Secondary Plays – Kevin Love (DK)

Oklahoma City Thunder at Memphis Grizzlies – 8:00 PM ET

Oklahoma City Thunder Memphis Grizzlies
oklahomacitynba Vegas Total 198.5 memphisnba Vegas Total 198.5
Vegas Spread 2.0 Vegas Spread -2.0
Team Total 98.3 Team Total 100.3
Pace +/- -3.3 Pace +/- 1.8
Proj. Starter Russell Westbrook Anthony Morrow Andre Roberson Domantas Sabonis Steven Adams Proj. Starter Mike Conley Tony Allen Chandler Parsons JaMychal Green Marc Gasol
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 3 8 1 5 1 DvP 25 2 12 18 5
DRPM -0.91 1.11 0.02 0.62 1.82 DRPM -0.79 -1.48 1.99 1.39 1.77

Oklahoma City Thunder

The Thunder are looking for their fifth win in a row tonight, as they head to Memphis to take on the Grizzlies. They are still awaiting the return of Victor Oladipo, but that will have to wait at least one more game, as he has already been ruled out of tonight’s game. In terms of the Thunder’s matchup, they are few worse than the Grizzlies. On the season, Memphis is ranked 28th in pace of play, fourth in points allowed per game, and first in defensive efficiency. The Thunder come into the game as 2-point underdogs with an implied total of only 98.3 points.

Anytime a team is projected to score 8.8 fewer points than their season average and it’s not due to an injury, we have to take note. While Russell Westbrook is matchup-proof, he isn’t exactly pace-proof. In his last four games against the Grizzlies, Westbrook has only scored more than 44 fantasy points one time. I’m not saying that we should fade Westbrook tonight, but we shouldn’t force him into our lineups like we do on most nights. Steven Adams should play big minutes against Marc Gasol, but this is an awful matchup for centers. Gasol is one of the best low post defenders in the NBA. It’s hard to believe that we are willing to pay in the mid-$5,000 range for Enes Kanter against the Grizzlies, but here we are. In his last four games, he is averaging 29.8 minutes and 30.4 fantasy points per contest.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Russell Westbrook $12,500 $12,700 1.67 35.1 -0.3 58.5 5.7 46.0% 0.4% 3 -0.91
Anthony Morrow $3,500 $3,000 0.54 16.7 -1.9 9.0 -3.9 15.4% 0.5% 8 1.11
Andre Roberson $3,700 $3,500 0.57 31.3 -2.2 17.8 -5.0 10.7% -0.3% 1 0.02
Domantas Sabonis $3,500 $3,000 0.64 21.0 2.4 13.4 3.2 14.6% 0.3% 5 0.62
Steven Adams $5,400 $5,000 0.84 29.4 -2.6 24.8 5.1 16.4% 3.2% 1 1.82
Enes Kanter $5,400 $5,100 1.12 20.3 8.3 22.8 6.9 25.0% 0.8% 5 N/A

Elite Plays – Russell Westbrook, Enes Kanter

Secondary Plays – Steven Adams

Memphis Grizzlies

The Grizzlies have lost six of their last ten games, but are still six games above .500 overall. If they ever get healthy, they could end up challenging for home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. Chandler Parsons was rested on Tuesday night, but should be back in the lineup tonight. In the three games since returning from injury, he has yet to play more than 15 minutes. Mike Conley is listed as questionable with a big toe injury. Hopefully, we get an update on his status this afternoon. The Grizzlies draw a mediocre matchup against the Thunder, who are ranked 18th in points allowed per game and second in rebounding differential. Memphis has an implied total of 100.3 points, which is 2.6 points above their season average.

A lot hinges on the availability of Mike Conley tonight. If he is able to suit up, he immediately becomes an elite fantasy option against a Thunder defense that is ranked 25th in fantasy points allowed to point guards. If Conley is out, Andrew Harrison then becomes the top value play in the slate. Conley’s absence would also give a boost to Troy Daniels off the bench. Tony Allen has been playing big minutes recently and should see 28-30 tonight against the Thunder. If you are in a pinch at shooting guard, you could certainly do worse than Allen. I typically try to avoid centers against the Thunder, but if Conley is ruled out, the Grizzlies’ offense will run through Marc Gasol. He averages 0.15 more fantasy points per minute when Conley is off the floor.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Mike Conley $6,800 $6,400 1.03 31.2 -3.5 32.2 -2.4 29.0% 0.9% 25 -0.79
Tony Allen $4,600 $5,000 0.77 27.8 1.0 21.4 2.3 17.4% -2.7% 2 -1.48
Chandler Parsons $3,900 $3,400 0.57 18.7 -5.0 10.6 -3.7 20.2% -0.5% 12 1.99
JaMychal Green $4,800 $4,600 0.74 29.5 -3.5 21.8 -4.9 14.4% -2.8% 18 1.39
Marc Gasol $8,300 $7,900 1.08 33.9 -0.5 36.7 -1.4 28.2% -1.2% 5 1.77
Zach Randolph $5,600 $5,200 1.12 22.5 1.3 25.1 3.4 29.2% -0.7% 18 N/A
Andrew Harrison $3,900 $4,800 0.64 27.0 2.3 17.3 2.9 19.7% 0.4% 25 N/A
Troy Daniels $3,500 $3,000 0.64 20.7 -4.1 13.2 0.4 21.5% 1.7% 2 N/A

Elite Plays – Mike Conley (if active), Andrew Harrison and Marc Gasol (if Conley is out)

Secondary Plays – Tony Allen, Marc Gasol (if Conley is active), Zach Randolph

Toronto Raptors at Phoenix Suns – 9:00 PM ET

Toronto Raptors Phoenix Suns
torontonba Vegas Total 220.5 phoenixnba Vegas Total 220.5
Vegas Spread -8.5 Vegas Spread 8.5
Team Total 114.5 Team Total 106.0
Pace +/- 5.0 Pace +/- -1.1
Proj. Starter Kyle Lowry DeMar DeRozan DeMarre Carroll Pascal Siakam Jonas Valanciunas Proj. Starter Eric Bledsoe Devin Booker P.J. Tucker Marquese Chriss Tyson Chandler
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 23 24 25 25 22 DvP 10 1 9 14 14
DRPM -0.84 -2.37 0.44 -0.57 1.30 DRPM 0.44 -2.16 0.40 1.50 0.08

Toronto Raptors

The Raptors were down by 25 points after the first quarter last night against the Warriors. They eventually clawed their way back into the game, but fell just short in the fourth quarter. They have a quick turnaround tonight, as they head to Phoenix to take on the Suns in what is expected to be a fairly close, high scoring game. The Suns are one of the best possible matchups for fantasy production, as they are ranked second in pace of play and 29th in points allowed per game this season. Even in the second half of a back-to-back, the Raptors have an implied total of 114.5 points, which is the highest in the slate.

Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan logged 40 and 39 minutes last night, but assuming neither is rested, they should see their usual allotment of minutes. In back-to-back situations this season, Lowry and DeRozan have actually played slightly more minutes than their season averages. Lowry draws a tremendous matchup against Eric Bledsoe and the Suns, who are ranked 23rd against point guards this season. DeRozan will likely see some of P.J. Tucker, but that doesn’t mean that we automatically have to avoid him. Of the two, I slightly prefer Lowry, but you can pair the two together in all formats. DeMarre Carroll is coming off of a 31 fantasy point outing last night, but his minutes have been too inconsistent to trust in cash games. Patrick Patterson is a nice value at power forward, although his ceiling is limited. Lucas Nogueira has scored at least 19 fantasy points in three of his last four games and is worth a look as a GPP punt.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Kyle Lowry $8,700 $8,500 1.06 37.0 -1.2 39.0 5.5 26.8% 3.1% 23 -0.84
DeMar DeRozan $8,400 $8,300 1.14 35.3 -0.9 40.2 -5.3 34.4% 0.0% 24 -2.37
DeMarre Carroll $3,600 $4,000 0.68 25.7 -1.5 17.6 -4.3 15.7% 1.6% 25 0.44
Pascal Siakam $3,500 $3,000 0.67 18.2 -5.2 12.2 -5.7 12.7% -1.6% 25 -0.57
Jonas Valanciunas $5,700 $5,300 0.98 27.1 -5.3 26.6 2.5 18.9% 1.7% 22 1.30
Lucas Nogueira $3,900 $3,800 0.88 19.3 5.5 17.0 5.2 9.5% -1.1% 22 N/A
Patrick Patterson $4,100 $4,000 0.65 28.9 3.5 18.9 -1.0 12.5% -1.5% 25 N/A

Elite Plays – Kyle Lowry, DeMar DeRozan

Secondary Plays – DeMarre Carroll, Patrick Patterson, Lucas Nogueira

Phoenix Suns

The Suns are tied with the Nets, Sixers, and Mavericks for the most losses of any team in the NBA. They are clearly a team that is in rebuilding mode and we shouldn’t be surprised if they end up trying to move Tyson Chandler and/or Brandon Knight by the trade deadline. They draw a mediocre matchup tonight against the Raptors, who are ranked ninth in points allowed per game and 13th in defensive efficiency. They do catch the Raptors at the right time, as they are playing in the second half of a back-to-back. The Suns are listed as 8.5-point underdogs with an implied total of 106 points.

Eric Bledsoe has been quiet in the last week, but he has had a tough string of matchups. He is firmly in play tonight against Kyle Lowry, who is no longer an elite on-ball defender. I always like pairing opposing point guards in tournaments and tonight is no different. The Raptors are ranked first in fantasy points allowed to shooting guards, yet DeMar DeRozan has one of the worst DRPM’s at his position. It’s hard to gauge matchups with conflicting information, but given Devin Booker increased playing time and shot volume, he is certainly worth a look in tournaments. T.J. Warren has scored at least 29 fantasy points in three of his last four games and is no longer on a minute restriction. Dollar for dollar, he is my favorite play from Phoenix. Dragan Bender has one of the best names in basketball and has played 27 minutes in back-to-back games. I’m not ready to use him in DFS just yet, but he’s worth keeping an eye on.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Eric Bledsoe $8,000 $7,500 1.10 32.3 -0.7 35.4 1.1 29.5% 1.3% 10 0.44
Devin Booker $6,100 $6,300 0.82 33.1 0.8 27.3 9.2 27.1% 2.0% 1 -2.16
P.J. Tucker $4,100 $3,800 0.63 26.7 2.5 16.7 2.9 11.4% -2.2% 9 0.40
Marquese Chriss $3,600 $3,100 0.75 16.8 -2.9 12.5 -0.8 19.2% 1.8% 14 1.50
Tyson Chandler $4,900 $4,500 0.83 27.5 -3.3 22.7 -4.5 10.9% 2.9% 14 0.08
Brandon Knight $4,700 $4,200 0.83 24.0 -2.4 19.9 3.9 27.0% 1.9% 1 N/A
T.J. Warren $5,100 $4,900 0.83 29.8 0.7 24.8 -0.2 21.8% 1.8% 9 N/A
Dragan Bender $3,900 $3,400 0.59 11.6 2.9 6.9 12.9 12.8% 4.7% 14 N/A

Elite Plays – T.J. Warren

Secondary Plays – Eric Bledsoe, Devin Booker

Philadelphia 76ers at Utah Jazz – 9:00 PM ET

Philadelphia 76ers Utah Jazz
philadelphianba Vegas Total 196.0 utahnba Vegas Total 196.0
Vegas Spread 13.0 Vegas Spread -13.0
Team Total 91.5 Team Total 104.5
Pace +/- -5.5 Pace +/- 0.5
Proj. Starter Sergio Rodriguez Nik Stauskas Robert Covington Ersan Ilyasova Jahlil Okafor Proj. Starter Shelvin Mack Rodney Hood Gordon Hayward Derrick Favors Rudy Gobert
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 2 4 4 1 3 DvP 21 18 25 13 26
DRPM -0.77 0.96 0.44 2.13 4.79 DRPM -1.31 -2.27 2.19 0.08 -0.63

Philadelphia 76ers

The Sixers are one of four teams that have 23 losses on the season, but they still own the worst record in the NBA at 7-23. They will be short-handed tonight against the Jazz, as Joel Embiid, Richaun Holmes, and Gerald Henderson have all been ruled out. This is one of the worst possible matchups for fantasy production, as the Jazz are ranked 29th in pace of play and first in points allowed per game. The Sixers have an implied total of only 91.5 points, which is easily the lowest in the slate. Robert Covington and Jahlil Okafor are the most appealing plays here, but the Jazz are ranked fourth and third in fantasy points allowed to small forwards and centers. This is a spot where we can fade the Sixers in cash games and use them sparingly in tournaments.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Sergio Rodriguez $5,000 $4,800 0.83 27.1 0.0 22.5 4.7 23.7% 1.4% 2 -0.77
Nik Stauskas $3,500 $3,000 0.58 25.7 -4.8 15.0 -5.4 16.6% 1.8% 4 0.96
Robert Covington $5,200 $4,800 0.73 29.4 5.3 21.5 1.8 17.9% -2.0% 4 0.44
Ersan Ilyasova $5,500 $4,900 0.87 26.8 1.1 23.3 -0.8 21.1% 0.1% 1 2.13
Jahlil Okafor $4,600 $4,600 0.88 22.8 -1.1 20.1 -4.4 21.8% -6.0% 3 4.79

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Robert Covington, Jahlil Okafor

Utah Jazz

The lineup that the Jazz would like to put on the floor has played a whole 12 minutes together this season. They have not been able to stay healthy, but are still 19-13 overall and are clearly playoff bound. They draw an easy matchup tonight against the Sixers, who are ranked in the bottom ten in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Jazz are listed as 13-point favorites with an implied total of 104.5 points. Even though there is the potential for this game to turn into a blowout, I typically don’t shy away from the favored team.

With Dante Exum and George Hill out the last three games, Shelvin Mack has played at least 33 minutes in each contest. Hill is tentatively expected to return to the lineup tonight, but if he sit, Mack would become one of the top values in the slate. The combination of price, matchup, and playing time is too good to pass up. If Hill plays, we will have to keep a close eye on his minute restriction before deploying him in our DFS contests. Rodney Hood has not played well recently and says that he still isn’t over his illness. His price is tempting, but I’d rather take a shot on Joe Ingles, who has been excellent off the bench. Gordon Hayward price is up across the industry and Robert Covington is the one defender on the Sixers that I have respect for. I see Hayward as s secondary play tonight. Derrick Favors entered the starting lineup on Tuesday and played 22 minutes. If he sees 22-24 minutes tonight against a short-handed Sixers’ frontcourt, he should easily exceed value expectations on DraftKings. Rudy Gobert is playing his best basketball of his career and this is the perfect game for him. He should be able to rack up blocks and steals and hit the offensive glass hard.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Shelvin Mack $4,000 $4,400 0.67 23.6 10.0 15.7 3.4 22.1% -1.5% 21 -1.31
Rodney Hood $4,300 $4,900 0.76 28.9 -10.0 22.1 -18.9 23.8% -2.6% 18 -2.27
Gordon Hayward $7,800 $8,100 1.02 35.4 1.7 35.9 5.0 28.4% 0.1% 25 2.19
Derrick Favors $4,600 $3,900 0.90 21.0 -3.2 19.0 -3.6 20.8% -1.0% 13 0.08
Rudy Gobert $7,500 $7,400 0.99 32.8 3.1 32.6 1.6 14.6% 0.8% 26 -0.63
Trey Lyles $3,700 $3,400 0.76 21.6 -1.9 16.5 1.3 21.3% -0.5% 13 N/A

Elite Plays – Shelvin Mack (if Hill is out), Rudy Gobert, Derrick Favors (DK)

Secondary Plays – Gordon Hayward, Joe Ingles, Derrick Favors (FD)

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious