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NBA Grind Down: Thursday, January 26th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-01-27 03:36:18

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Indiana Pacers at Minnesota Timberwolves – 8:00 PM ET

Indiana Pacers Minnesota Timberwolves
indiananba Vegas Total 211.5 minnesotanba Vegas Total 211.5
Vegas Spread 3.5 Vegas Spread -3.5
Team Total 104.0 Team Total 107.5
Pace +/- -1.8 Pace +/- 1.3
Proj. Starter Jeff Teague C.J. Miles Paul George Thaddeus Young Myles Turner Proj. Starter Ricky Rubio Zach LaVine Andrew Wiggins Gorgui Dieng Karl-Anthony Towns
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 6 11 6 9 15 Adj. DvP 16 20 20 20 22
DRPM 1.51 -3.19 -2.25 2.93 -0.90 DRPM -0.23 -0.57 -0.18 1.27 1.94

Indiana Pacers

The Pacers have lost three games in a row and are back to .500 overall. They are currently ranked seventh place in the Eastern Conference standings and have struggled on the road with a 6-16 record. They draw a mediocre matchup tonight against the Timberwolves, whose defensive statistics are all over the map. On the season, Minnesota is ranked 12th in points allowed per game, 23rd in defensive efficiency, and fourth in rebounding differential. The Pacers are listed as 3.5-point underdogs with an implied total of 104.3 points, which is the fifth highest in the slate.

Jeff Teague has struggled in his last three games, averaging only 27 fantasy points per contest. Ricky Rubio isn’t associated with the term ‘great defender’ very often, but the Wolves are ranked sixth against point guards this season. Even in a four game slate, I see Teague as more of a tournament play than a cash game target. Aaron Brooks and Monta Ellis are both probable for tonight’s game, but it sounds like the Pacers will be without Rodney Stuckey. Paul George finally broke out of his slump with 43 fantasy points against the Knicks. He may not be the best point-per-dollar value on the board, but if their prices are equal, I slightly prefer him over Andrew Wiggins. Thaddeus Young isn’t quite the value that Derrick Favors is on FanDuel, but he is a fine play if you need a power forward at his price point. Myles Turner hasn’t played well on the road this season, but I’m excited to watch him square off against Karl-Anthony Towns. If Turner can stay out of foul trouble, he should push for 32-34 minutes.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Jeff Teague $7,500 $7,200 1.04 32.2 3.3 33.5 -6.4 26.6% -3.4% 6 -0.15
C.J. Miles $3,500 $3,700 0.76 22.0 3.2 16.7 -3.2 18.3% -1.7% 11 -3.19
Paul George $7,700 $7,900 1.00 35.4 -0.8 35.4 -1.1 27.0% 0.5% 6 -2.25
Thaddeus Young $5,600 $5,700 0.78 31.4 2.5 24.4 4.9 16.0% -2.0% 9 2.93
Myles Turner $6,800 $6,600 1.03 30.1 1.1 30.9 -1.4 19.5% 0.7% 15 -0.90
Monta Ellis $3,500 $3,200 0.64 28.3 -1.2 18.0 -2.2 17.3% -1.6% 11 N/A

Elite Plays – Paul George (FD), Myles Turner (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Paul George (DK), Myles Turner (Cash), Jeff Teague (GPP), Thaddeus Young, C.J. Miles

Minnesota Timberwolves

The Wolves have won three games in a row and six of their last ten. This seems to be the time of the season when the younger teams start playing well and we are seeing that with the Sixers, Nuggets, and Wolves. Tonight’s matchup against the Pacers is an exploitable one, as Indiana is ranked 23rd in points allowed per game and 26th in rebounding differential this season. Minnesota may not be the fastest paced team around, but they have an implied total of 107.8 points, which is 4.3 points above their season average.

Ricky Rubio played well against the Suns on Tuesday, scoring 34 fantasy points in 34 minutes of action. The problem is that his salary is up across the industry and it sounds like the Wolves are shopping him around before the trade deadline. Zach LaVine’s minutes and fantasy production are both trending in the wrong direction and even with limited options at shooting guard, I will likely be fading him in all formats. Andrew Wiggins hit the game winner against the Suns the other night and is averaging 39 fantasy points in his last three games. I prefer Paul George if we take salary out of the equation, but give the edge to Wiggins on DraftKings where he is $900 cheaper. Gorgui Dieng has been losing minutes to Nemanja Bjelica off the bench, but they may need his size against Indiana. I may have a share or two of Dieng in tournaments. Karl-Anthony Towns has played at least 37 minutes in each of his last six games and has scored at least 58 fantasy points three times during that stretch. He is clearly the top overall play at center in this small slate.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Ricky Rubio $6,900 $6,800 0.83 31.7 -6.6 26.2 -4.9 18.5% 3.3% 16 -0.23
Zach LaVine $6,100 $6,200 0.75 37.1 -1.7 27.9 -11.5 22.3% -6.5% 20 -0.57
Andrew Wiggins $7,600 $7,000 0.83 37.0 1.5 30.7 8.9 27.5% 1.3% 20 -0.18
Gorgui Dieng $5,600 $5,500 0.80 32.1 -6.7 25.6 -1.9 15.6% 0.0% 20 1.27
Karl-Anthony Towns $10,600 $9,900 1.18 36.2 3.5 42.6 9.3 27.1% -0.3% 22 1.94

Elite Plays – Karl-Anthony Towns, Andrew Wiggins (DK)

Secondary Plays – Andrew Wiggins (FD), Gorgui Dieng (GPP)

Dallas Mavericks at Oklahoma City Thunder – 8:00 PM ET

Dallas Mavericks Oklahoma City Thunder
dallasnba Vegas Total 198.0 oklahomacitynba Vegas Total 198.0
Vegas Spread 9.5 Vegas Spread -9.5
Team Total 94.3 Team Total 103.8
Pace +/- 1.5 Pace +/- -5.4
Proj. Starter Devin Harris Seth Curry Dorian Finney-Smith Harrison Barnes Andrew Bogut Proj. Starter Russell Westbrook Victor Oladipo Andre Roberson Domantas Sabonis Steven Adams
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 20 3 19 21 11 Adj. DvP 1 8 1 3 10
DRPM -0.08 0.33 2.15 1.24 2.36 DRPM -1.41 -0.34 0.50 -0.82 4.33

Dallas Mavericks

The Mavericks picked up another win last night to make it five of their last ten. The win didn’t come without a price though, as Deron Williams hurt his toe and isn’t expected to make the trip to Oklahoma City. The Mavericks will also be without Dirk Nowitzki (rest), Wesley Matthews and J.J. Barea. Their rotation will include a mix of some names you probably haven’t heard of. The Mavericks don’t have a great matchup against the Thunder, but the fact that they are short-handed opens up a number of value plays.

It will be interesting to see who the Mavericks roll out for their starting lineup tonight. They could slide Seth Curry over and start him at point guard, or they could start Devin Harris or Pierre Jackson. Whoever ends up starting will become a nice value play, especially if we can expect them to play big minutes. Curry will likely see 30+ minutes regardless of his starting position and is one of the best value plays in the entire slate. Dorian Finney-Smith started for Wesley Matthews last night and saw 31 minutes against the Knicks. He is a solid bet to play 30+ minutes again tonight and he’s minimum salary on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Dwight Powell and Justin Anderson could also extended action and are both worth a look in tournaments. The Mavericks will have to lean on Harrison Barnes to carry the load offensively with Dirk Nowitzki out for the second half of the back-to-back.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Devin Harris $3,500 $3,000 0.67 15.5 0.1 10.3 -0.5 18.4% -0.9% 20 -0.08
Seth Curry $4,100 $4,500 0.69 26.7 2.9 18.4 1.8 19.2% -1.2% 3 0.33
Dorian Finney-Smith $3,500 $3,000 0.49 21.2 -1.4 10.5 1.2 11.1% -1.4% 19 2.15
Harrison Barnes $6,200 $6,000 0.83 35.7 -2.2 29.6 -7.0 25.1% -2.9% 21 1.24
Andrew Bogut $3,700 $3,300 0.78 23.5 18.2 11.9% 11 N/A
Pierre Jackson $3,500 $3,000 0.98 7.8 10.3 7.6 14.3 31.1% -6.7% 20 N/A
Justin Anderson $3,700 $3,000 0.84 15.1 -7.9 12.6 -3.0 22.5% 15.2% 19 N/A

Elite Plays – Seth Curry, Harrison Barnes

Secondary Plays – Dorian Finney-Smith, Justin Anderson, Devin Harris, Dwight Powell, Pierre Jackson, Andrew Bogut

Oklahoma City Thunder

The Thunder picked up a win last night against the Pelicans in New Orleans. At the time of writing this, the spread for tonight’s game is set at only 9.5 points, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see that number get bigger as the day progresses. The Thunder play well at home and the Mavericks are extremely short-handed right now. This will be a pace-down game for the Thunder, as Dallas is ranked dead last in pace of play. They are also ranked fourth in points allowed per game, which isn’t exactly an ideal matchup for fantasy production.

Russell Westbrook has six triple-doubles in his last seven games. The level that he is playing at is truly remarkable and the fact that he isn’t even starting in the All-Star Game is laughable. The Mavericks don’t have anyone that can defend Westbrook and I fully expect another monster game from him. The only downside is the slow pace of the game, but that’s not a big concern in a four game slate. Victor Oladipo is a little too cheap right now. he doesn’t offer the same value as Seth Curry, but he’s still one of the top point-per-dollar plays at shooting guard. Steven Adams has played 37 and 32 minutes since coming back from his concussion. He should see 30+ minutes against the worst rebounding team in the NBA. This is also a good situation for Enes Kanter, who should be able to dominate the glass while he is on the floor.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Russell Westbrook $12,700 $12,600 1.65 34.7 -1.1 57.4 -1.5 45.8% 3.7% 1 -1.41
Victor Oladipo $5,700 $5,300 0.78 33.8 -3.4 26.3 0.3 21.1% -0.4% 8 -0.34
Andre Roberson $3,700 $3,400 0.56 31.0 -0.6 17.5 -3.3 10.6% -1.0% 1 0.50
Domantas Sabonis $3,500 $3,000 0.61 21.0 -0.9 12.9 -2.1 14.5% -0.7% 3 -0.82
Steven Adams $5,500 $5,000 0.84 30.1 7.2 25.4 -1.7 16.2% -1.7% 10 0.17
Enes Kanter $6,200 $5,500 1.13 21.9 5.3 24.7 -0.1 25.4% -2.3% 3 N/A

Elite Plays – Russell Westbrook, Victor Oladipo, Steven Adams, Enes Kanter (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Enes Kanter (Cash)

Phoenix Suns at Denver Nuggets – 9:00 PM ET

Phoenix Suns Denver Nuggets
phoenixnba Vegas Total 229.0 denvernba Vegas Total 229.0
Vegas Spread 6.5 Vegas Spread -6.5
Team Total 111.3 Team Total 117.8
Pace +/- 2.0 Pace +/- 3.0
Proj. Starter Eric Bledsoe Devin Booker T.J. Warren Marquese Chriss Tyson Chandler Proj. Starter Jameer Nelson Gary Harris Danilo Gallinari Kenneth Faried Nikola Jokic
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 29 29 10 17 20 Adj. DvP 7 15 22 18 17
DRPM -1.33 -1.56 -0.71 -0.66 1.41 DRPM -0.73 -2.16 -1.03 -0.75 1.65

Phoenix Suns

The Suns have won five of their last ten games, but still own the worst record in the Western Conference. Tonight’s game against the Nuggets looks so good on paper that we could basically fill out an entire lineup with only players from these two teams. The Nuggets have really struggled defensively this season, ranking 28th in points allowed per game and 29th in defensive efficiency. The Suns have an implied total of 111.3 points, which is the second highest in the slate and 5.1 points above their season average.

Eric Bledsoe has been on a tear over his last three games, averaging 43 fantasy points per contest. He draws a favorable matchup against the Nuggets, but we aren’t getting any sort of a discount. A few weeks ago, we were fading Bledsoe at a price in the mid-$7,000 range and now we are considering him at a price well above $9,000? I’m not saying that he’s a bad play tonight, but I do expect him to come back down to Earth eventually. If I’m paying up at point guard in cash games, I am going all the way up to Russell Westbrook. Devin Booker’s price is also at its highest point of the season, but it is easier for him to reach value than it is for Bledsoe. Booker has scored at least 29 fantasy points in six of his last seven games. T.J. Warren’s usage is way down since returning from injury. At a similar price point, I’d rather target P.J. Tucker off the bench, who has been more productive in the last few weeks. Tyson Chandler says that he is in the right place mentally and it is showing in his production. He has scored at least 28 fantasy points in nine straight games. The only concern that I have with Chandler is that he has to face the GOAT, Nikola Jokic.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Eric Bledsoe $9,700 $9,200 1.11 33.1 3.5 36.8 6.7 30.1% -0.5% 29 -1.33
Devin Booker $7,200 $7,100 0.81 34.5 4.8 27.9 1.8 27.7% -1.3% 29 -1.56
T.J. Warren $4,000 $4,100 0.74 29.1 -2.4 21.4 -11.6 19.8% -6.3% 10 -0.71
Marquese Chriss $3,600 $3,100 0.73 18.0 -1.1 13.2 3.1 19.1% 2.0% 17 -0.66
Tyson Chandler $6,600 $6,400 0.89 28.5 5.5 25.3 10.4 11.4% 1.1% 20 1.41
P.J. Tucker $4,500 $4,400 0.64 27.9 6.1 17.8 9.9 11.3% 1.9% 10 N/A

Elite Plays – Devin Booker

Secondary Plays – Eric Bledsoe, P.J. Tucker, Tyson Chandler, Brandon Knight (GPP)

Denver Nuggets

The Nuggets have become one of my favorite teams to watch thanks to Nikola Jokic. Heading into the season, I would have never guessed that my two favorite teams to watch on NBA League Pass would be the Sixers and Nuggets. Denver draws a terrific matchup against the Suns, who are ranked third in pace of play and 29th in points allowed per game. The Nuggets have an implied total of 117.8 points, which is easily the highest implied total in the slate. It is also 8.1 points above their season average.

Emmanuel Mudiay is not expected to play tonight, which means Jameer Nelson and Jamal Murray will continue to split the minutes at point guard. In the last two games with Mudiay out, Nelson is averaging 30 minutes and 19 fantasy points, while Murray is averaging 19 minutes and 21 fantasy points. Nelson is still the preferred play of the two, but Murray is a decent GPP target that should get overlooked. Gary Harris should see around 30 minutes against one of the worst defensive backcourts in the NBA. Harris is typically more of a cash game option, but he is worth a look in all formats tonight. Will Barton’s minutes have been all over the map, but I like him as a low-owned tournament play against the Suns. Danilo Gallinari and Wilson Chandler are both viable plays at small forward. Gallinari’s minutes are a bit safer, while Chandler offers more upside on a per-minute basis. Kenneth Faried is a decent GPP target. I usually prefer to play him in uptempo games against bad defenses. The Suns certainly fit that mold. I’ve spent all of this time talking about the other Nuggets’ players, but the top play here is clearly Nikola Jokic. He has scored at least 51 fantasy points in each of his last four games where he has played at least 30 minutes. Given all the value in the slate, I am going to find a way to get him into my lineups on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Jameer Nelson $3,900 $4,500 0.70 25.0 4.2 17.6 2.0 20.4% -2.2% 7 -0.73
Gary Harris $4,800 $4,800 0.80 27.0 4.2 21.7 2.4 19.7% -0.4% 15 -2.16
Danilo Gallinari $5,800 $5,500 0.78 34.1 -1.5 26.7 -3.0 19.2% -2.7% 22 -1.03
Kenneth Faried $5,000 $4,700 1.00 22.1 -0.2 22.2 -6.4 16.9% -4.2% 18 -0.75
Nikola Jokic $10,400 $9,300 1.26 25.8 2.1 32.4 8.0 23.8% 5.8% 17 1.65
Will Barton $5,000 $5,800 0.84 28.6 -3.3 24.0 -5.8 21.5% -4.2% 15 N/A

Elite Plays – Nikola Jokic, Jameer Nelson, Danilo Gallinari, Gary Harris

Secondary Plays – Wilson Chandler, Will Barton, Jamal Murray (GPP), Kenneth Faried (GPP)

Los Angeles Lakers at Utah Jazz – 10:30 PM ET

Los Angeles Lakers Utah Jazz
lalakersnba Vegas Total 203.5 utahnba Vegas Total 203.5
Vegas Spread 13.0 Vegas Spread -13.0
Team Total 95.3 Team Total 108.3
Pace +/- -5.1 Pace +/- 1.6
Proj. Starter Jose Calderon Nick Young Luol Deng Julius Randle Timofey Mozgov Proj. Starter George Hill Joe Ingles Gordon Hayward Derrick Favors Rudy Gobert
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 9 1 2 1 3 Adj. DvP 27 19 24 30 30
DRPM 1.30 -0.42 0.22 1.76 4.90 DRPM -0.98 -2.11 0.89 0.22 -0.16

Los Angeles Lakers

The Lakers have not been playing their best basketball of the season lately. To make matters worse, they have to take on the best defense in the NBA and they have to do it on the road. The Jazz are the second slowest paced team in the league and they are ranked first in points allowed per game and second in defensive efficiency. The Lakers are playing in the second half of a back-to-back and come into this game with the lowest implied total in the slate. Lou Williams is really the only fantasy option of note here. With D’Angelo Russell out, he has seen a boost in playing time and we all know how quickly he can put points on the board. With that said, there is a ton of value in this slate, so a full Lakers’ fade certainly isn’t out of the equation.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Jose Calderon $4,000 $3,000 0.71 12.3 2.5 8.8 1.1 19.0% -4.0% 9 1.30
Nick Young $3,900 $3,900 0.72 26.4 1.4 19.0 2.4 18.7% 2.1% 1 -0.42
Luol Deng $4,400 $3,600 0.70 27.4 -8.0 19.1 -3.7 14.9% 1.4% 2 0.22
Julius Randle $6,500 $5,900 0.99 29.4 -1.8 29.3 -4.6 23.2% -1.2% 1 1.76
Timofey Mozgov $3,600 $3,000 0.71 21.1 -2.8 15.1 0.0 16.6% -0.5% 3 4.90
Lou Williams $5,700 $5,200 1.05 24.3 2.6 25.5 6.4 30.7% -0.1% 1 N/A
Jordan Clarkson $4,800 $4,700 0.78 27.4 4.1 21.3 -0.1 23.6% 0.1% 9 N/A
Brandon Ingram $4,400 $4,200 0.59 28.2 7.1 16.7 6.0 16.3% 3.0% 2 N/A

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Lou Williams

Utah Jazz

The Jazz took a rare loss at home on Monday against the Thunder, but they should be able to bounce back tonight against the Lakers. Not only have the Lakers been in terrible form recently, but they are ranked 26th in points allowed per game and 30th in defensive efficiency. The Jazz come into the game with an implied total of 108.3 points. Utah has a projected point differential of +8.8, which is the highest in the slate. The only concern here is a potential blowout, as the spread for the game is set at 13 points. The other three games in the slate are all expected to stay fairly close.

There are a number of viable plays at point guard tonight, but George Hill stands out as a great value on FanDuel. He is only $6,000 and he has one of the best possible matchups for a point guard. On the season, the Lakers are ranked 27th against the position. The problem is that we can only roster two point guards on FanDuel, so we are going to have some difficult decisions to make. Rodney Hood is listed as questionable for tonight’s game, but the Jazz have no reason to rush him back and he was originally targeting the 30th for his return. If Hood is out again, Joe Ingles and Alec Burks will pick up his minutes. Gordon Hayward is a bit expensive on FanDuel, but is in the small forward mix on DraftKings at $7,300. Derrick Favors is a tremendous value play on FanDuel at a price of only $4,700. Rudy Gobert has struggled in his last two games, but should be able to bounce back nicely against a Lakers’ team that is ranked 30th against centers this season.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
George Hill $6,000 $6,700 0.94 31.5 2.2 29.6 1.3 25.3% 1.6% 27 -0.98
Joe Ingles $3,900 $4,600 0.68 21.0 3.8 14.4 1.9 15.4% -3.1% 19 -2.11
Gordon Hayward $8,000 $7,300 0.99 34.9 -1.0 34.4 -9.8 27.3% -3.4% 24 0.89
Derrick Favors $4,700 $5,400 0.86 23.4 1.8 20.1 4.9 20.4% 1.6% 30 0.22
Rudy Gobert $8,300 $7,500 1.01 33.4 -2.0 33.8 -5.4 15.3% 3.9% 30 -0.16
Alec Burks $3,800 $3,400 0.82 11.2 10.9 9.2 11.3 23.2% -2.1% 19 N/A

Elite Plays – George Hill (FD), Derrick Favors (FD), Rudy Gobert (DK)

Secondary Plays – George Hill (DK), Derrick Favors (DK), Rudy Gobert (FD), Gordon Hayward (DK), Joe Ingles (FD), Alec Burks (DK)

About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious