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NBA Grind Down: Thursday, November 19th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2015-11-21 13:33:33

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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

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Sacramento Kings at Miami Heat – 7:30 PM

Sacramento Kings Miami Heat
sacramentonba Vegas Total 200.5 miaminba Vegas Total 200.5
Vegas Sprd 8.0 Vegas Sprd -8.0
Team Proj. 96.3 Team Proj. 104.3
Team Pace 103.10 Team Pace 96.60
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Rajon Rondo Ben McLemore Rudy Gay Kosta Koufos Willie Cauley-Stein Proj. Starter Goran Dragic Dwyane Wade Luol Deng Chris Bosh Hassan Whiteside
Opp. Season 2 2 23 11 13 Opp. Season 18 24 21 25 24
Opp. Last 7 2 15 27 25 26 Opp. Last 7 30 5 8 30 5

Sacramento Kings (Record: 4-8, Road: 0-3)

We have a light schedule on tap tonight, per usual Thursday tradition. The Kings are playing in the second half of a back-to-back tonight, after losing to the Hawks in Atlanta on Wednesday. The Kings have won four of their last five games, but they are listed as 8-point underdogs tonight against the Heat.

The Heat are one of the toughest matchups in daily fantasy basketball. On the season, they are ranked ninth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Kings have an implied team total of 96.3 points tonight, which is the second lowest on the board tonight.

Editor’s Note: DeMarcus Cousins has been suspended for tonight’s game.

DeMarcus Cousins is a strong play in all league formats. He is about as matchup-proof as they come and I like his chances to have a big game, even if Hassan Whiteside is defending him. Rajon Rondo is coming off of his third triple-double in four games, but he only played 31 minutes last night against the Hawks. With Darren Collison back from injury, Rondo’s minutes will be in the mid-30’s moving forward. He is a bit overpriced for his matchup tonight against the Heat. Rudy Gay and Omri Casspi are also secondary option tonight.

Elite Plays

Editor’s Note: DeMarcus Cousins has been suspended for tonight’s game.

DeMarcus Cousins

FD: $10,700 — DK: $10,300
Min/Game: 32.2 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 30.7
FP/Game: 44.4 — FP/Min.: 1.38

Secondary Plays

Rajon Rondo

FD: $7,600 — DK: $8,700
Min/Game: 35.1 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 18.6
FP/Game: 35.7 — FP/Min.: 1.02

Rudy Gay

FD: $7,600 — DK: $6,900
Min/Game: 32.2 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 22.3
FP/Game: 30.0 — FP/Min.: 0.93

Omri Casspi

FD: $4,200 — DK: $4,200
Min/Game: 24.1 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 14.4
FP/Game: 19.3 — FP/Min.: 0.80

Miami Heat (Record: 6-4, Home: 5-2)

The Heat are 6-4 on the season, including a 5-2 record at home. They should be at full-strength tonight, as they host the visiting Kings. This will be a pace-up game for the Heat, as the Kings have averaged nearly seven more possessions per game this season.

The Kings are one of the best matchups in daily fantasy basketball. On the season, they are ranked 22nd or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game this season. The Heat have an implied team total of 104.3 points tonight. Not only is that the second highest team projection on the board tonight, but it is also eight points higher than their average points scored this season.

Like Rajon Rondo, Hassan Whiteside is also coming off of a triple-double, although he got his with ten blocks instead of ten assists. He has been dominant defensively this season. He deserves consideration as an elite play tonight, but he doesn’t come without some risk attached. He will likely be defending DeMarcus Cousins, who is one of the best players in the NBA at drawing fouls. Dwyane Wade should see around 30 minutes in a favorable matchup against Ben McLemore. Chris Bosh is a strong play at power forward, but the Kings’ frontcourt of Cousins and Willie Cauley-Stein is tougher than the number suggest. Goran Dragic is also in play at point guard, especially on DraftKings, where Austin Rivers is listed as a shooting guard.

Elite Plays

Hassan Whiteside

FD: $8,600 — DK: $8,400
Min/Game: 29.8 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 17.2
FP/Game: 38.0 — FP/Min.: 1.28

Dwyane Wade

FD: $6,700 — DK: $6,400
Min/Game: 29.1 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 26.2
FP/Game: 27.9 — FP/Min.: 0.96

Secondary Plays

Chris Bosh

FD: $7,900 — DK: $7,300
Min/Game: 32.3 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 21.2
FP/Game: 34.5 — FP/Min.: 1.07

Goran Dragic

FD: $5,700 — DK: $5,200
Min/Game: 31.1 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 16.4
FP/Game: 21.2 — FP/Min.: 0.68

Milwaukee Bucks at Cleveland Cavaliers – 8:00 PM

Milwaukee Bucks Cleveland Cavaliers
milwaukeenba Vegas Total 194.0 clevelandnba Vegas Total 194.0
Vegas Sprd 9.5 Vegas Sprd -9.5
Team Proj. 92.3 Team Proj. 101.8
Team Pace 94.60 Team Pace 96.40
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Michael Carter-Williams Khris Middleton Giannis Antetokounmpo Jabari Parker Greg Monroe Proj. Starter Mo Williams J.R. Smith LeBron James Kevin Love Timofey Mozgov
Opp. Season 7 13 17 5 5 Opp. Season 9 5 24 22 12
Opp. Last 7 15 8 10 9 15 Opp. Last 7 3 2 29 12 22

Milwaukee Bucks (Record: 5-6, Road: 2-3)

The Bucks are a young, talented team, but they just can’t seem to turn the corner this season. They are 5-6 on the year and they will have a tough time getting back to .500 tonight against the Cavaliers. The Bucks are the largest underdogs on the board tonight, as the Cavaliers are favored by 9.5 points.

The Cavaliers are a tough matchup to target for fantasy production, as they are ranked eighth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game this season. The Bucks have an implied team total of 92.3 points, which is the lowest on the board tonight.

Even though we would typically avoid the Bucks in a situation like this, there are only three games on the schedule tonight. Giannis Antetokounmpo is a borderline elite play at SG/SF. As long as he can stay out of foul trouble, he should see minutes in the high 30’s. Jerryd Bayless is also a strong play, especially if he remains in the starting lineup. His price has yet to catch up to his recent level of production. Greg Monroe and Khris Middleton are secondary options at their respective positions.

Elite Plays

Giannis Antetokounmpo

FD: $6,900 — DK: $7,200
Min/Game: 35.5 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 18.7
FP/Game: 30.5 — FP/Min.: 0.86

Jerryd Bayless

FD: $4,400 — DK: $4,800
Min/Game: 31.7 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 16.1
FP/Game: 22.3 — FP/Min.: 0.70

Secondary Plays

Greg Monroe

FD: $7,800 — DK: $7,600
Min/Game: 33.3 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 19.5
FP/Game: 35.2 — FP/Min.: 1.06

Khris Middleton

FD: $5,600 — DK: $5,600
Min/Game: 36.2 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 16.8
FP/Game: 22.9 — FP/Min.: 0.63

Cleveland Cavaliers (Record: 8-3, Home: 5-0)

The Cavaliers are looking to improve their home record to 6-0 on the season with a win over the Bucks tonight. The Cavaliers are the largest favorites on the board tonight and given their track record at home, this game has the potential to turn into a blowout.

The Bucks have not fared well defensively this season, ranking below the league average in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Cavaliers have an implied team total of 101.8 points. While that is slightly lower than their average points scored this season, it is still a respectable total.

LeBron James hasn’t had as many quiet games as he did last season. He has scored at least 38 fantasy points in each of his last nine games, topping the 50 fantasy point mark four times during that stretch. He is the premier play at small forward tonight. Kevin Love also deserves consideration as an elite play. He should dominate the glass against the Bucks tonight. Mo Williams and J.R. Smith are also in the mix, however, they are secondary options at their respective positions.

Elite Plays

LeBron James

FD: $10,100 — DK: $10,100
Min/Game: 36.6 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 29.5
FP/Game: 46.0 — FP/Min.: 1.26

Kevin Love

FD: $7,800 — DK: $8,000
Min/Game: 34.8 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 20.5
FP/Game: 35.5 — FP/Min.: 1.02

Secondary Plays

Mo Williams

FD: $6,200 — DK: $5,900
Min/Game: 31.3 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 19.5
FP/Game: 26.9 — FP/Min.: 0.86

J.R. Smith

FD: $5,000 — DK: $4,200
Min/Game: 28.4 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 14.3
FP/Game: 15.6 — FP/Min.: 0.55

Golden State Warriors at Los Angeles Clippers – 10:30 PM

Golden State Warriors Los Angeles Clippers
goldenstatenba Vegas Total 213.0 laclippersnba Vegas Total 213.0
Vegas Sprd -6.5 Vegas Sprd 6.5
Team Proj. 109.8 Team Proj. 103.3
Team Pace 102.70 Team Pace 100.70
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Stephen Curry Klay Thompson Harrison Barnes Draymond Green Andrew Bogut Proj. Starter Jamal Crawford Austin Rivers Paul Pierce Blake Griffin DeAndre Jordan
Opp. Season 10 28 10 15 22 Opp. Season 23 8 3 6 14
Opp. Last 7 18 28 3 18 8 Opp. Last 7 29 12 20 5 7

Golden State Warriors (Record: 12-0, Road: 5-0)

The Warriors are a perfect 12-0 on the season. They will look to keep their perfect streak alive tonight against the Clippers, who will be missing two of their starters. The Warriors are 6.5-point favorites in what is expected to be the highest scoring game of the night.

The Clippers have not played well defensively this season, ranking below the league average in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Warriors have an implied team total of 109.8 points, which is the highest on the board tonight.

The only potential concern for the Warriors is that they play again tomorrow night, making it three games in four nights. It’s hard to factor that in tonight though, considering the fact that there are only three games on the schedule. Stephen Curry is the premier play at any position tonight. Austin Rivers is a good defender, but he will be no match for the reigning-MVP. The rest of the Warriors are secondary options. Draymond Green, Klay Thompson, Andrew Bogut, Harrison Barnes, and Andre Iguodala are all decent plays in what should be a high-scoring game.

Elite Plays

Stephen Curry

FD: $11,000 — DK: $10,800
Min/Game: 35.5 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 28.8
FP/Game: 50.3 — FP/Min.: 1.42

Secondary Plays

Draymond Green

FD: $7,900 — DK: $7,400
Min/Game: 34.0 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 14.9
FP/Game: 35.1 — FP/Min.: 1.03

Klay Thompson

FD: $6,400 — DK: $6,300
Min/Game: 31.0 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 19.0
FP/Game: 24.8 — FP/Min.: 0.80

Andrew Bogut

FD: $5,200 — DK: $5,000
Min/Game: 20.5 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 12.8
FP/Game: 25.4 — FP/Min.: 1.24

Harrison Barnes

FD: $5,100 — DK: $5,200
Min/Game: 30.7 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 15.2
FP/Game: 23.0 — FP/Min.: 0.75

Andre Iguodala

FD: $4,700 — DK: $4,900
Min/Game: 29.0 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 12.1
FP/Game: 22.8 — FP/Min.: 0.79

Los Angeles Clippers (Record: 6-4, Home: 5-1)

The Clippers will be without Chris Paul and J.J. Redick tonight, as they square off against the best team in the NBA. Despite missing two of their starters, Vegas is still giving them a decent shot in this game, as they are only 6.5-point underdogs. Austin Rivers and Jamal Crawford will likely slide into the starting lineup.

The Warriors are great on both ends of the floor. Despite playing at a fast pace, they are ranked above the league average in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game this season. Even though the matchup doesn’t look great on paper, the Clippers have the third highest implied team total on the board tonight.

With Chris Paul and J.J. Redick out, Austin Rivers and Jamal Crawford immediately become elite plays in all league formats. Both players should log heavy minutes tonight against the Warriors. The injuries also give a boost to Blake Griffin and Paul Pierce. Griffin should see an increase in usage, while Pierce should see a boost in minutes.

Elite Plays

Blake Griffin

FD: $9,700 — DK: $9,600
Min/Game: 34.1 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 27.2
FP/Game: 44.8 — FP/Min.: 1.31

Jamal Crawford

FD: $4,400 — DK: $4,600
Min/Game: 24.1 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 22.4
FP/Game: 19.4 — FP/Min.: 0.80

Austin Rivers

FD: $3,800 — DK: $3,900
Min/Game: 25.1 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 14.8
FP/Game: 14.0 — FP/Min.: 0.56

Secondary Plays

DeAndre Jordan

FD: $7,600 — DK: $7,500
Min/Game: 31.7 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 10.7
FP/Game: 32.3 — FP/Min.: 1.02

Paul Pierce

FD: $3,700 — DK: $3,400
Min/Game: 21.8 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 11.5
FP/Game: 13.7 — FP/Min.: 0.63

About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious