NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, December 5th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
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Phoenix Suns at Toronto Raptors – 7:30 PM ET
| Phoenix Suns | Toronto Raptors | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 225.5 |  | Vegas Total | 225.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 13.0 | Vegas Spread | -13.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 106.3 | Implied Team Total | 119.3 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 0.1 | Pace Projection +/- | 4.9 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Tyler Ulis | Devin Booker | T.J. Warren | Marquese Chriss | Greg Monroe | Projected Starters | Kyle Lowry | DeMar DeRozan | OG Anunoby | Serge Ibaka | Jonas Valanciunas | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 5 | 22 | 1 | 13 | 8 | DvP | 30 | 28 | 19 | 30 | 22 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 11 | 25 | 7 | 21 | 27 | DRPM Rat. | 28 | 29 | 29 | 15 | 24 | |
Phoenix Suns
I really hope that I’m wrong, but this is shaping up to be one ugly slate. There are only three games on the schedule and all of them have blowout potential. All three road teams are playing in the second half of a back-to-back. The Suns picked up a surprising win over the Sixers last night, but draw a much tougher matchup tonight. On the season, the Raptors are ranked above the league average in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Suns do have the second highest implied total on the board, but it is slightly below their season average.
It’s hard to put a ton of stock into potential blowouts in a three game slate, but the Suns are 13-point underdogs and are playing in the second half of a back-to-back. If this game gets out of hand early, we could see the starters sit the entire fourth quarter. With that said, there is still upside here if Phoenix is able to keep the game within striking distance. After Tyler Ulis played 37 minutes and scored 30 fantasy points last night, I expect everyone to gravitate toward him as their cheap point guard target. While I still have Ulis projected to play more minutes than Mike James, that could flip in any game. James only played five minutes last night and would likely play garbage time if this turns into a blowout. I have these two projected closely enough that I will side with James, since he only played five minutes last night.
Devin Booker was a great value on FanDuel last night and he came through with a huge fantasy outing against the Sixers. He’s too cheap again tonight and draws the best matchup of the five starters. The Raptors are ranked dead last in efficiency against shooting guards. T.J. Warren has scored at least 24 fantasy points in 11 of his last 12 games. He has a much higher floor than most give him credit for. He’s priced affordably on both FanDuel and DraftKings, although he does have the tougher matchup of the two Suns’ wing players. The way to approach this game is to take the starters from both sides in hopes that it stays close or to target the bench players in hopes that they would see garbage time in a blowout.
The Suns have been resting one of their three centers (Tyson Chandler, Greg Monroe, and Alex Len) every night. Based on the rotation and the fact that he played 36 minutes last night, Chandler may get the night off. However, with Len being questionable, there is a chance that Chandler will still suit up. Luckily, we’ll know who is going to be rested well in advance of lineup lock. If Chandler is out, Monroe would likely draw the start at center. He is averaging over a fantasy point per minute this season and despite the difficult matchup, would become my favorite point-per-dollar center of the slate.
Notable Injuries
Tyson Chandler (Potential Rest)
Alex Len (Questionable)
Phoenix Suns Offense
Points Per Game: 107.4 (9 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 106.3 (2 of 6)
Projected Point Differential: -1.2 (4 of 6)
Matchup vs. Toronto Raptors
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.7 (9 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.2 (9 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.2 (13 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.2 (12 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Ulis | $4,000 | $3,900 | $7,400 | 17.9 | 5.7 | 23.3 | 5.7 | 0.77 | 18.4% | 45.7% | 1 | 5 | 11 |
| Devin Booker | $7,100 | $8,000 | $14,900 | 36.1 | 10.2 | 33.8 | 0.8 | 1.07 | 27.4% | 57.2% | 30 | 22 | 25 |
| T.J. Warren | $6,800 | $6,400 | $14,000 | 31.8 | 1.7 | 31.2 | 2.0 | 1.02 | 22.4% | 53.2% | 6 | 1 | 7 |
| Marquese Chriss | $3,900 | $3,900 | $8,100 | 17.7 | -1.6 | 20.2 | 2.8 | 0.88 | 13.3% | 49.2% | 15 | 13 | 21 |
| Greg Monroe | $4,500 | $4,500 | $8,600 | 19.7 | 6.3 | 19.2 | 3.2 | 1.02 | 18.0% | 57.1% | 3 | 8 | 27 |
| Alex Len | $4,300 | $4,400 | $9,400 | 23.4 | -4.6 | 22.4 | -3.1 | 1.05 | 14.5% | 57.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Mike James | $4,500 | $4,200 | $9,000 | 21.7 | -3.9 | 22.0 | -6.8 | 0.98 | 24.6% | 46.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Devin Booker (FD), T.J. Warren, Greg Monroe
Secondary Plays – Devin Booker (DK), Mike James, Tyler Ulis, Alex Len
Toronto Raptors
The Raptors are looking for their fourth win in a row and based on the spread of tonight’s game, they shouldn’t have any problems. This is one of the more difficult situations that we are presented with tonight. On the one hand, the Raptors have the best matchup on the board. The Suns are ranked first in pace of play and dead last in points per game. On the other hand, this game has a big spread and the potential to turn into a blowout. Generally, I’m willing to play the starters from the favored team in potential blowouts, especially in small slates. With an implied total of 119.3 points, it’s hard not to like everyone from the Raptors.
As crazy as it sounds, you can honestly make a case for six or seven different Raptors’ players tonight. We’ll start with the two obvious plays — Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan. Lowry has really picked up his play on both ends of the floor over the last three weeks and gets to square off against a Suns’ defense that is ranked dead last against point guards. DeRozan basically has nearly as favorable of a matchup, as Phoenix is ranked 19th in efficiency and 28th in DvP against shooting guards. Both are elite options tonight, but I would give a slight edge to Lowry if I had to choose between the two.
OG Anunboy, C.J. Miles, and Norman Powell are all playing between 18-24 minutes a night. While they have appeal as deep tournament darts, they shouldn’t be on your radar unless you are mass-multi entering a GPP. Fred VanVleet is averaging 22 minutes and 26 fantasy points over his last four games. He is cheap across the industry and would likely see garbage time minutes in the event of a blowout. Serge Ibaka grades out as one of the better plays at power forward. The Suns are ranked dead last against the position and Ibaka is priced affordably across the industry. Pascal Siakam and Jakob Poeltl are also intriguing values, especially on DraftKings. With Lucas Nogueira expected to miss some time, these two are locked into big roles off the bench and could see extended minutes in a blowout. I prefer Siakam and Poeltl over Jonas Valanciunas, whose minute upside is lacking right now.
Notable Injuries
Lucas Nogueira (Doubtful)
Jakob Poeltl (Probable)
Toronto Raptors Offense
Points Per Game: 110.9 (4 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 119.3 (1 of 6)
Projected Point Differential: 8.3 (1 of 6)
Matchup vs. Phoenix Suns
Points Allowed Per Game: 115.2 (30 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 109.3 (28 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.2 (13 of 30)
Pace of Play: 105.0 (2 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Lowry | $8,500 | $8,700 | $15,800 | 34.6 | 8.6 | 32.7 | 2.0 | 1.06 | 21.1% | 62.5% | 30 | 30 | 28 |
| DeMar DeRozan | $8,700 | $8,500 | $16,300 | 37.1 | -4.9 | 34.3 | -0.3 | 1.08 | 27.8% | 56.6% | 19 | 28 | 29 |
| OG Anunoby | $3,500 | $3,500 | $6,800 | 12.5 | -1.0 | 18.8 | 2.1 | 0.66 | 11.9% | 60.6% | 23 | 19 | 29 |
| Serge Ibaka | $5,200 | $5,000 | $9,600 | 23.1 | 1.1 | 26.9 | -1.6 | 0.86 | 16.1% | 57.3% | 30 | 30 | 15 |
| Jonas Valanciunas | $4,900 | $4,800 | $10,300 | 20.9 | -1.1 | 20.3 | -1.0 | 1.03 | 17.5% | 61.5% | 20 | 22 | 24 |
| Pascal Siakam | $4,800 | $3,900 | $7,600 | 18.9 | 0.3 | 21.2 | 2.7 | 0.89 | 14.4% | 55.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Fred VanVleet | $4,100 | $3,400 | $6,400 | 15.0 | 11.5 | 16.2 | 5.6 | 0.93 | 19.4% | 50.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Jakob Poeltl | $4,200 | $3,400 | $6,500 | 16.0 | 3.7 | 15.4 | 3.0 | 1.04 | 14.1% | 67.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Kyle Lowry, DeMar DeRozan, Serge Ibaka (FD), Pascal Siakam (DK), Jakob Poeltl (DK), Fred VanVleet (DK)
Secondary Plays – Serge Ibaka (DK), Pascal Siakam (FD), Jakob Poeltl (FD), Fred VanVleet (FD), Norman Powell (GPP)
Utah Jazz at Oklahoma City Thunder – 8:00 PM ET
| Utah Jazz | Oklahoma City Thunder | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 197.0 |  | Vegas Total | 197.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 7.0 | Vegas Spread | -7.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 95.0 | Implied Team Total | 102.0 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -1.0 | Pace Projection +/- | -2.8 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Ricky Rubio | Donovan Mitchell | Joe Ingles | Derrick Favors | Rudy Gobert | Projected Starters | Russell Westbrook | Andre Roberson | Paul George | Carmelo Anthony | Steven Adams | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 6 | 1 | 7 | 18 | 12 | DvP | 4 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 2 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 2 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 6 | DRPM Rat. | 6 | 17 | 10 | 4 | 10 | |
Utah Jazz
The Jazz have won six games in a row and now have their defensive anchor back in the lineup. The arrow is trending upward for the Jazz once again. Even though they are playing in the second half of a back-to-back, the starters weren’t needed for long last night against the Wizards. I’m not worried about the starters playing on tired legs, I’m worried about the matchup. On the season, the Thunder are ranked fourth in points allowed per game and third in defensive efficiency. The Jazz have the lowest implied total (95 points) and the lowest projected point differential (-8.7 points) on the board.
Ricky Rubio minutes have been down for two reasons — the Jazz have been blowing teams out left and right and Utah has gotten a lot of production out of Donovan Mitchell and Alec Burks. For now, Rubio is a deep tournament play at best, while Mitchell and Burks are both firmly in play in all formats. Given the difficulty of the matchup, I prefer Burks over Mitchell dollar for dollar. The run Burks has been on is nothing shy of incredible, posting 51, 38, and 40 fantasy points in his last three games. Outside of those two, I have very little interest in the Jazz. Derrick Favors is overpriced for the matchup and for his role in the offense now that Gobert is back. Gobert played well in limited minutes last night, but the Jazz will likely ease him back into action in the next few games.
Notable Injuries
Joe Johnson (Out)
Thabo Sefolosha (Questionable)
Rodney Hood (Out)
Utah Jazz Offense
Points Per Game: 103.7 (20 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 95.0 (6 of 6)
Projected Point Differential: -8.7 (6 of 6)
Matchup vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.0 (4 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 100.3 (3 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.0 (11 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.1 (17 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Rubio | $5,300 | $5,400 | $11,000 | 26.6 | -2.1 | 28.5 | -2.2 | 0.93 | 22.2% | 51.9% | 8 | 6 | 2 |
| Donovan Mitchell | $7,200 | $7,100 | $14,800 | 28.2 | 5.4 | 28.9 | 3.4 | 0.98 | 25.2% | 51.2% | 7 | 1 | 1 |
| Joe Ingles | $5,000 | $4,900 | $9,900 | 23.5 | -1.8 | 29.5 | 0.3 | 0.80 | 15.4% | 61.9% | 3 | 7 | 1 |
| Derrick Favors | $7,000 | $6,600 | $13,200 | 27.6 | 11.0 | 28.0 | 1.7 | 0.99 | 17.5% | 60.6% | 12 | 18 | 15 |
| Rudy Gobert | $8,000 | $7,300 | $14,500 | 35.1 | -7.6 | 32.8 | -11.6 | 1.07 | 13.7% | 66.1% | 6 | 12 | 6 |
| Alec Burks | $4,800 | $4,500 | $8,600 | 17.8 | 20.2 | 19.0 | 8.1 | 0.94 | 20.1% | 54.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Jonas Jerebko | $3,900 | $3,800 | $7,200 | 13.3 | 8.3 | 16.9 | 9.0 | 0.79 | 13.3% | 65.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Alec Burks
Secondary Plays – Donovan Mitchell
Oklahoma City Thunder
The Thunder have a talented team, but are two games below .500 and would not make the playoffs if the regular season ended today. These two teams will likely be battling it out for one of the final spots in the Western Conference when all is said and done. The Jazz are a bad matchup to begin with and now they have Rudy Gobert back to control the paint. Despite being without their defensive anchor for a couple of weeks, Utah is still ranked third in points allowed per game. The Thunder have an implied total of 102 points, which is the third lowest of the slate.
Russell Westbrook will be a popular target at point guard tonight. Despite a good track record against the Jazz (averaging 59 fantasy points in their last four meetings), he seems overpriced. Westbrook is at his best in transition and when he can attack the rim. Tonight’s game against the Jazz will be played at a slow pace and it doesn’t help that Gobert is one of the best rim protectors in basketball. I plan to fade Westbrook completely on FanDuel, but given all of the great value plays on DraftKings, I may end up using Westbrook in tournaments. Carmelo Anthony has been passive in his last two games (ten and seven shot attempts) and it has led to two wins. I don’t expect this to last forever, but he’s an easy fade in a difficult matchup against the Jazz.
Paul George is the premier play at small forward tonight, but it could be tough for him to reach value in a pace-down game against the Jazz. He’s my favorite of the big three in Oklahoma City, but he’s not a building block for me in this slate. If I end up on him, I’m perfectly fine with it. If he doesn’t fit my lineup construction, so be it. Steven Adams deserves consideration if Tyson Chandler is active and starting. In that case, Greg Monroe would become less appealing, which would boost my interest in Adams. He’ll likely see minutes in the low 30s tonight against Gobert.
Notable Injuries
None
Oklahoma City Thunder Offense
Points Per Game: 102.1 (24 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 102.0 (4 of 6)
Projected Point Differential: -0.1 (3 of 6)
Matchup vs. Utah Jazz
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.7 (3 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.0 (6 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.3 (22 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.3 (27 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Westbrook | $10,700 | $11,000 | $22,900 | 49.3 | 3.4 | 35.5 | 2.7 | 1.39 | 32.7% | 49.5% | 9 | 4 | 6 |
| Andre Roberson | $4,300 | $3,500 | $6,800 | 14.9 | 3.0 | 25.2 | 2.7 | 0.59 | 7.9% | 55.6% | 16 | 3 | 17 |
| Paul George | $8,600 | $8,400 | $15,700 | 39.5 | -0.9 | 37.0 | 1.9 | 1.07 | 23.7% | 53.9% | 12 | 8 | 10 |
| Carmelo Anthony | $6,800 | $6,500 | $14,000 | 31.4 | -10.1 | 32.2 | -1.9 | 0.98 | 23.2% | 53.1% | 3 | 6 | 4 |
| Steven Adams | $6,900 | $5,900 | $12,500 | 29.9 | -2.3 | 31.2 | -1.0 | 0.96 | 13.9% | 65.7% | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| Jerami Grant | $3,700 | $3,700 | $7,200 | 18.8 | -0.1 | 22.5 | -1.0 | 0.84 | 14.2% | 60.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Paul George, Russell Westbrook (DK)
Secondary Plays – Russell Westbrook (FD), Steven Adams
Washington Wizards at Portland Trail Blazers – 10:00 PM ET
| Washington Wizards | Portland Trail Blazers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 204.0 |  | Vegas Total | 204.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 6.0 | Vegas Spread | -6.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 99.0 | Implied Team Total | 105.0 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -0.6 | Pace Projection +/- | -0.8 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Tim Frazier | Bradley Beal | Otto Porter | Markieff Morris | Marcin Gortat | Projected Starters | Damian Lillard | C.J. McCollum | Pat Connaughton | Noah Vonleh | Jusuf Nurkic | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 9 | 8 | 14 | 4 | 6 | DvP | 10 | 6 | 27 | 7 | 17 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 18 | 18 | 19 | 7 | 5 | DRPM Rat. | 9 | 13 | 1 | 13 | 17 | |
Washington Wizards
The Wizards have been playing some ugly basketball recently, especially their starters. Their bench has kept them in a few games, but they were steamrolled by the Jazz last night. The good news is that the starters didn’t play many minutes, so this isn’t as bad as your typical back-to-back situation. Washington draws another difficult matchup tonight, as they take on a Blazers’ team that is ranked fifth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Wizards have the second lowest implied total (99 points) and the second worst projected point differential (-7.1) on the board.
This is a revenge game of sorts for Tim Frazier, but he never really took the reigns at point guard when Wall went down with his injury. In fact, over the last four games, Satoransky is averaging more minutes (24) and more fantasy points (24). While they aren’t terrible values tonight, I would rather target one of the point guards from the Suns. Bradley Beal has disappeared over his last four games, averaging 22 fantasy points. If we run the CourtIQ tool with Wall off the floor, we can actually see that Beal’s FP/min goes down. This has a lot to do with his recent play, but opponents have basically sold out to stop Beal and so far, it has worked.
Depending on ownership, Beal could be a decent tournament play in this short slate. However, I much prefer Otto Porter, who sees a bigger usage boost (5%) and a bigger FP/min boost (+0.08) with Wall off the floor. Porter can fill up all areas of the stat sheet and he draws the best matchup of the five Wizards’ starters. Kelly Oubre has played well off the bench recently, averaging 25 fantasy points in his last four games. He’s an intriguing tournament play that should carry low ownership. Markieff Morris has played at least 27 minutes in three of his last six games. If this stays close, he could be a sneaky value play at a price under $5,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Marcin Gortat is viable on FanDuel ($4,700) if Greg Monroe doesn’t end up drawing the start for Phoenix.
Notable Injuries
John Wall (Out)
Washington Wizards Offense
Points Per Game: 106.1 (13 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 99.0 (5 of 6)
Projected Point Differential: -7.1 (5 of 6)
Matchup vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.0 (5 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 100.4 (4 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 5.6 (2 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.5 (15 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Frazier | $4,200 | $3,900 | $7,900 | 13.6 | -0.4 | 17.6 | 1.9 | 0.77 | 14.0% | 48.7% | 11 | 9 | 18 |
| Bradley Beal | $7,600 | $7,600 | $14,100 | 34.5 | -13.9 | 34.4 | -4.9 | 1.00 | 25.9% | 57.0% | 5 | 8 | 18 |
| Otto Porter | $7,000 | $6,900 | $13,800 | 32.2 | -2.5 | 32.6 | -3.0 | 0.99 | 17.4% | 61.6% | 18 | 14 | 19 |
| Markieff Morris | $4,800 | $4,700 | $10,000 | 18.8 | -0.8 | 22.9 | -1.0 | 0.82 | 18.5% | 52.2% | 2 | 4 | 7 |
| Marcin Gortat | $4,700 | $5,200 | $9,800 | 25.6 | -1.3 | 29.6 | -5.6 | 0.87 | 13.4% | 57.6% | 2 | 6 | 5 |
| Kelly Oubre | $5,100 | $4,900 | $9,600 | 22.1 | 3.1 | 27.9 | 0.0 | 0.79 | 16.3% | 55.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Tomas Satoransky | $5,300 | $4,100 | $8,100 | 12.3 | 12.0 | 14.9 | 9.5 | 0.82 | 15.7% | 60.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Otto Porter
Secondary Plays – Bradley Beal, Markieff Morris, Kelly Oubre (GPP), Marcin Gortat (FD)
Portland Trail Blazers
The Blazers are looking to snap a two game losing streak tonight, as they host the struggling Wizards. While this game only has a six point spread, there is still a chance that this could turn into a blowout. The Wizards have been playing some awful basketball recently and are playing their second road game in as many nights. As far as the matchup goes, this is a favorable one for Portland. On the season, Washington is ranked 13th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Blazers have an implied total of 105 points, which is the third highest of the slate.
Damian Lillard is my favorite point guard to spend up on tonight, at least for cash games. Russell Westbrook is expensive and has a difficult matchup and Kyle Lowry could end up sitting out the entire fourth quarter against the Suns. The Wizards have been tough on point guards this season, but I like Lillard’s chances against Tim Frazier and Tomas Satoransky. C.J. McCollum could fly under the radar in a slate that features Bradley Beal, Devin Booker, and DeMar DeRozan. I’m not sure if this is a hot take or not, but I actually prefer McCollum over all three when factoring in salaries (with the exception of Booker on FanDuel).
Pat Connaughton has played well recently, but his minutes are far from secure. Evan Turner is also a wildcard, as his production has been all over the map recently. If I had to choose between the two, I’d go with Turner on FanDuel (listed at SF) and Connaughton on DraftKings (both listed at SG/SF). Noah Vonleh has played well recently, but Al-Farouq Aminu has been cleared to play “30-something minutes.” Even if we project him to play 30 minutes, Aminu is clearly the better choice over Vonleh. Jusuf Nurkic is an intriguing tournament play down low. With everyone looking to save at center, he could end up being 10% owned in GPPs. We know the upside is there, as Nurkic has topped 45 fantasy points in two of his last five games.
Notable Injuries
None
Portland Trail Blazers Offense
Points Per Game: 103.2 (21 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 105.0 (3 of 6)
Projected Point Differential: 1.8 (2 of 6)
Matchup vs. Washington Wizards
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.3 (13 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.6 (14 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.6 (21 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.3 (16 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damian Lillard | $9,100 | $9,400 | $17,300 | 42.3 | -0.9 | 36.7 | 2.9 | 1.15 | 29.1% | 56.8% | 2 | 10 | 9 |
| C.J. McCollum | $6,700 | $7,000 | $15,000 | 32.3 | -3.6 | 36.4 | 0.4 | 0.89 | 23.1% | 55.4% | 17 | 6 | 13 |
| Pat Connaughton | $3,600 | $3,600 | $7,100 | 11.9 | 8.7 | 19.5 | 6.4 | 0.61 | 12.6% | 61.1% | 15 | 27 | 1 |
| Noah Vonleh | $3,800 | $4,000 | $7,600 | 17.7 | 1.8 | 22.2 | 2.5 | 0.80 | 8.9% | 59.0% | 23 | 7 | 13 |
| Jusuf Nurkic | $7,400 | $7,200 | $14,300 | 30.2 | 1.4 | 28.0 | 1.8 | 1.08 | 24.3% | 49.0% | 13 | 17 | 17 |
| Evan Turner | $3,600 | $3,900 | $7,500 | 17.9 | -5.1 | 26.3 | -4.7 | 0.68 | 15.9% | 45.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Al-Farouq Aminu | $4,600 | $4,200 | $8,500 | 24.0 | -13.5 | 28.9 | -4.9 | 0.83 | 11.8% | 58.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |