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NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, January 10th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-01-11 04:22:37

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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Editor’s Note: Nikola Mirotic (illness) has been ruled OUT for tonight.

Chicago Bulls at Washington Wizards – 7:00 PM ET

Chicago Bulls Washington Wizards
chicagonba Vegas Total 203.5 washingtonnba Vegas Total 203.5
Vegas Spread 11.0 Vegas Spread -11.0
Team Total 96.3 Team Total 107.3
Pace +/- 0.4 Pace +/- -1.8
Proj. Starter Michael Carter-Williams Isaiah Canaan Doug McDermott Taj Gibson Robin Lopez Proj. Starter John Wall Bradley Beal Otto Porter Markieff Morris Marcin Gortat
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 5 13 11 22 7 DvP 15 21 14 14 12
DRPM -0.40 -0.63 1.34 1.18 1.39 DRPM -0.25 -1.22 -1.47 1.40 -0.12

Chicago Bulls

After spending a weekend in the hospital with my baby boy, I am ecstatic to be back to my regular routine. A big shout out to everyone that sent well wishes on Twitter and a big shout out to Chirag Hira and Chris Gimino for covering my content while I was away. We have an interesting slate tonight, as there may be more value plays than we have seen in any other slate so far this season. A number of the top values come from the Bulls, who have already ruled out Dwyane Wade and Jimmy Butler. Even though Chicago comes into the game as 11.5-point underdogs, this is still a great spot for fantasy production. The Wizards are ranked 22nd in points allowed per game and 21st in defensive efficiency this season. The Bulls have an implied total of 96.3 points and they are missing their top two scorers.

In order to get a grasp on what happens when Jimmy Butler and Dwyane Wade are off the floor, we can run the CourtIQ tool here on RotoGrinders. For our purposes, I am also going to take Rajon Rondo out of the mix, as he hasn’t seen the floor in the last couple of weeks. The big issue with this set of results is the sample size, but we can see that Michael Carter-Williams, Doug McDermott, and Taj Gibson see the biggest usage boosts. MCW hasn’t been great as a starter, but the offense has run through Wade and Butler most of the time. With both players out, MCW will be forced to take on a bigger role offensively. He is an elite value play and we can even look to his backup, Jerian Grant, in tournaments. Isaiah Canaan, Doug McDermott, and Denzel Valentine should all play big minutes on the wing and are all viable plays tonight. McDermott is my favorite play of the three, as he could push for 35 minutes with a high usage rate. The other two are best suited for tournaments. Gibson is a player that I expect to get overlooked tonight, although he may see the biggest usage boost of anyone with Wade and Butler out. Gibson is cheap across the industry and the Wizards are ranked 22nd against power forwards this season. Nikola Mirotic provides massive upside in a game where Chicago will be without their two best scorers. If you can stomach the low floor, you can use Mirotic in all formats tonight.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Michael Carter-Williams $4,800 $4,800 0.77 21.0 1.8 16.3 2.0 23.3% 1.5% 5 -0.40
Isaiah Canaan $3,500 $3,000 0.54 18.8 -10.4 10.2 -2.0 16.1% 10.9% 13 -0.63
Doug McDermott $4,000 $4,400 0.59 26.7 5.1 15.8 6.8 16.2% 0.6% 11 1.34
Taj Gibson $4,700 $4,700 0.86 27.6 -3.1 23.7 -0.3 19.1% -1.1% 22 1.18
Robin Lopez $4,200 $3,900 0.76 27.9 -2.5 21.2 -9.4 15.8% -3.4% 7 1.39
Nikola Mirotic $4,500 $4,900 0.84 23.3 1.8 19.5 -0.4 19.1% -0.6% 22 N/A
Jerian Grant $3,600 $3,100 0.69 14.5 6.6 10.0 3.7 17.4% -2.5% 5 N/A

Elite Plays – Michael Carter-Williams, Doug McDermott, Taj Gibson, Nikola Mirotic

Secondary Plays – Isaiah Canaan, Jerian Grant, Denzel Valentine, Robin Lopez

Washington Wizards

The Wizards have won six of their last ten games and would narrowly squeeze into the playoffs if the regular season ended today. They should be able to pick up a win tonight at home against a short-handed Bulls’ team. Washington is listed as an 11-point favorite with an implied total of 107.3 points. While the Bulls have been stout defensively this season, they are missing their best defender in Jimmy Butler. The only concern that I have with the Wizards is a potential blowout. If the Bulls decide to sit Rajon Rondo again, they will essentially be playing without their three best offensive players. The Wizards may be able to jump on the Bulls early and build a big lead.

Given the way the slate checks out, I don’t plan to have a lot of exposure to the Wizards tonight. The blowout potential is a small concern, but basically there are better options at each position. John Wall has been on a tear this season, averaging 44.7 fantasy points with a true usage rate of 34.4%, but the best point-per-dollar plays at point guard are in the mid-range tier and in the value tier. Bradley Beal is nursing an ankle injury and is a risky play in such a big slate. Otto Porter production is trending in the right direction, but his volatility makes him a risky cash game target. Speaking of volatility, no one likes to roster Markieff Morris, who is about as consistent as my workout routine (shows up once every couple of weeks). Marcin Gortat is my favorite play here. His minutes are off the charts this season and is he still affordably priced on both FanDuel ($6,400) and DraftKings ($5,900).

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
John Wall $9,500 $9,900 1.23 36.5 2.2 44.7 -3.7 34.4% -5.2% 15 -0.25
Bradley Beal $6,900 $6,400 0.92 34.4 0.7 31.6 1.2 26.5% 1.2% 21 -1.22
Otto Porter $6,000 $6,200 0.82 33.9 2.7 27.9 5.5 15.2% -0.4% 14 -1.47
Markieff Morris $5,100 $5,600 0.77 31.4 1.7 24.1 2.1 19.7% -0.4% 14 1.40
Marcin Gortat $6,400 $5,900 0.84 35.9 0.8 30.0 0.9 14.1% 0.8% 12 -0.12

Elite Plays – Marcin Gortat

Secondary Plays – John Wall, Otto Porter (GPP)

Boston Celtics at Toronto Raptors – 7:30 PM ET

Boston Celtics Toronto Raptors
bostonnba Vegas Total 219.5 torontonba Vegas Total 219.5
Vegas Spread 4.5 Vegas Spread -4.5
Team Total 107.5 Team Total 112.0
Pace +/- -0.9 Pace +/- -0.2
Proj. Starter Isaiah Thomas Marcus Smart Jae Crowder Amir Johnson Al Horford Proj. Starter Kyle Lowry DeMar DeRozan DeMarre Carroll Lucas Nogueira Jonas Valanciunas
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 10 2 14 19 10 DvP 16 3 26 25 23
DRPM 0.61 -2.12 0.67 2.73 -0.49 DRPM -4.04 0.58 1.34 1.54 1.27

Boston Celtics

The Celtics have won four games in a row and eight of their last ten. If they beat the Raptors tonight, they would pull within dead even with Toronto for the two seed in the Eastern Conference. This is expected to be a close and high scoring game, which is exactly the type of game environment that we are looking for in DFS. The Celtics are listed as 4.5-point underdogs, but have an implied total of 107.5 points, which is slightly above their season average. The Raptors’ defense hasn’t been nearly as strong this season, as they are ranked 14th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential.

Avery Bradley has already been ruled out of tonight’s game. If we run the CourtIQ tool, we can see that Isaiah Thomas has a 38.1% usage rate with Bradley off the floor this season. Thomas doesn’t have the best individual matchup against Kyle Lowry, but the increased usage and the potential minutes boost more than makes up for it. Thomas is an elite tournament play on a night where he should get overlooked. Marcus Smart doesn’t see a big boost in terms of usage with Bradley out, but he does see a big boost in minutes. He is also coming off of fantasy point outings of 33 and 40 points. Jae Crowder is a viable cash game target here, as he should see minutes in the mid-30s with a slight usage bump with Bradley out. One of the reasons why I love using the CourtIQ tool is that it helps us spot trends that we typically wouldn’t without it. Al Horford sees a usage boost of 6% with Bradley off the floor this season. Horford is going to get overlook and like Thomas, is one of my favorite GPP plays in the slate.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Isaiah Thomas $8,900 $9,100 1.19 33.7 2.3 40.2 3.2 34.6% -2.5% 10 0.61
Marcus Smart $5,200 $5,800 0.76 29.9 0.0 22.7 6.4 19.9% 0.7% 2 -2.12
Jae Crowder $5,000 $5,200 0.75 31.5 0.5 23.7 -2.9 16.0% -4.4% 14 0.67
Amir Johnson $4,100 $4,100 0.79 20.6 5.4 16.4 5.6 14.8% 1.1% 19 2.73
Al Horford $7,400 $6,700 1.05 32.9 -0.2 34.6 0.8 23.2% 2.6% 10 -0.49
Gerald Green $3,500 $3,000 0.93 10.4 -0.7 9.7 1.1 23.6% 1.5% 2 N/A

Elite Plays – Isaiah Thomas (GPP), Al Horford (GPP), Marcus Smart (FD), Jae Crowder (FD)

Secondary Plays – Isaiah Thomas (Cash), Al Horford (Cash), Marcus Smart (DK), Jae Crowder (DK)

Toronto Raptors

The Raptors want to send a message to the Celtics tonight. These teams will likely end up being the two and three seeds in the Eastern Conference and Toronto wants Boston to know that they aren’t ready to pass the torch just yet. This is a favorable matchup for fantasy production, as the Celtics are ranked 18th or worse defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game this season. Toronto comes into the game with an implied total of 112 points, which is the third highest in the slate and 1.4 points above their season average.

In a normal slate, Kyle Lowry would be a lock for me in cash games. Over his last three games, he is averaging 41.7 minutes and 48.1 fantasy points. He has a high true usage rate and he draws the best individual matchup possible. Do you know how many players have a worse Defensive Real Plus-Minus (DRPM) grade than Isaiah Thomas? None. Out of 437 players graded this season, he has the lowest DRPM of anyone in the NBA. I plan to have a ton of exposure to Lowry tonight, but there are so many great plays at his position. DeMar DeRozan is also an elite play here, as he sees a small matchup boost with Avery Bradley out. DeRozan leads the Raptors with a true usage rate of 34.2% this season. A year after having knee surgery, DeMarre Carroll is finally off of his minute restriction. In his last three games, he is averaging 38 minutes and 23.3 fantasy points. He is certainly worth a look on FanDuel at a price of only $3,800. Lucas Nogueira is a viable punt option if he ends up drawing the start. If he comes off the bench, I will look elsewhere given all of the other great value plays in the slate. Last but not least, Jonas Valanciunas makes an attractive GPP play against a Celtics’ frontcourt that is ranked 23rd against centers and 28th in rebounding differential this season.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Kyle Lowry $8,800 $8,200 1.07 37.3 4.4 40.0 8.1 26.7% -1.7% 16 -4.04
DeMar DeRozan $9,000 $8,300 1.13 35.6 4.0 40.4 5.8 34.2% 0.7% 3 0.58
DeMarre Carroll $3,800 $4,200 0.68 26.2 11.8 17.8 5.5 15.1% -3.6% 26 1.34
Lucas Nogueira $3,600 $3,500 0.80 20.2 6.7 16.3 2.8 9.5% 1.0% 25 1.54
Jonas Valanciunas $5,100 $5,200 0.93 26.9 2.0 25.1 -0.5 17.8% -3.1% 23 1.27
Patrick Patterson $4,000 $3,600 0.64 28.2 -5.8 17.9 0.5 12.6% -0.2% 25 N/A

Elite Plays – Kyle Lowry, DeMar DeRozan, DeMarre Carroll (FD)

Secondary Plays – DeMarre Carroll (DK), Lucas Nogueira (if he starts), Jonas Valanciunas (GPP)

Atlanta Hawks at Brooklyn Nets – 7:30 PM ET

Atlanta Hawks Brooklyn Nets
atlantanba Vegas Total 215.0 brooklynnba Vegas Total 215.0
Vegas Spread -8.0 Vegas Spread 8.0
Team Total 111.5 Team Total 103.5
Pace +/- 5.5 Pace +/- 1.2
Proj. Starter Dennis Schroder Kent Bazemore Thabo Sefolosha Paul Millsap Dwight Howard Proj. Starter Isaiah Whitehead Bojan Bogdanovic Joe Harris Trevor Booker Brook Lopez
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 30 28 30 27 30 DvP 27 19 10 9 3
DRPM -0.50 -2.80 -1.08 2.27 -0.39 DRPM -2.27 -0.15 3.17 4.06 2.66

Atlanta Hawks

The Hawks have won six games in a row and eight of their last ten. A couple of weeks ago, management was likely looking to be sellers at the trade deadline, but I fully expect them to keep the rest of their core intact given their recent play. They did trade Kyle Korver to the Cavaliers, but they had enough depth at the wing that they basically just got a free future first round draft pick out of the deal. Atlanta draws the top matchup on the board tonight, as they take on the Nets in Brooklyn. On the season, the Nets are ranked first in pace of play and dead last in points allowed per game. The Hawks have an implied total of 111.5 points, which is 9.2 points above their season average.

The best part about this game is that it is being played in Brooklyn. There is still the potential for this to turn into a blowout, but it’s a lot less likely with the Nets playing at home. Dennis Schroder should have his way against a Nets’ defense that is ranked dead last against point guards this season. Schroder has really played well over the last few weeks and his true usage rate is up to 30% on the season. We have to make some tough choices tonight, as Schroder, George Hill, and D’Angelo Russell are all comparable plays at similar price points. With Kyle Korver gone, that should in theory, open up more minutes for Kent Bazemore and Thabo Sefolosha on the wing. While both grade out as nice value plays, Tim Hardaway is the wing player from Atlanta that piques my interest the most. In the first game without Korver, Hardaway played 31 minutes and scored 27 fantasy points. I have him as my second favorite value at shooting guard behind Jeremy Lamb, who we will get to later. Paul Millsap draws the worst individual matchup of the five starters (Trevor Booker has a DRPM of 2.27), but the Nets are so bad defensively that he should still be considered an elite play in all formats. Dwight Howard has played at least 30 minutes in five straight games. If he plays 30+ minutes tonight against the Nets, there is a decent chance he gets to 50 fantasy points.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Dennis Schroder $6,900 $6,700 0.96 31.0 -0.4 29.6 3.1 30.0% 2.1% 30 -0.50
Kent Bazemore $4,400 $4,300 0.74 27.2 -1.8 20.1 -2.8 20.5% -7.4% 28 -2.80
Thabo Sefolosha $4,100 $4,100 0.75 25.9 0.3 19.5 -3.4 14.1% -2.5% 30 -1.08
Paul Millsap $8,100 $7,800 1.06 34.1 0.0 36.0 0.7 25.1% 1.0% 27 2.27
Dwight Howard $7,600 $7,500 1.15 29.5 0.7 34.0 -0.4 18.9% -2.1% 30 -0.39
Tim Hardaway $4,500 $4,600 0.75 22.3 3.5 16.8 5.0 22.6% -0.8% 28 N/A

Elite Plays – Dennis Schroder, Tim Hardaway, Paul Millsap, Dwight Howard (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Dwight Howard (Cash), Kent Bazemore, Thabo Sefolosha

Brooklyn Nets

The Nets have lost six games in a row and nine of their last ten games. While their recent form is a concern, seven of their eight wins on the season have come at home. My hope is that they are able to keep this game close enough that the starters from both sides see a full complement of minutes. This isn’t the best matchup for the Nets though, as Atlanta is ranked 11th or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential this season. Brooklyn comes into the game with an implied total of only 103.5 points, which is the seventh lowest in the slate and 1.9 points below their season average.

Jeremy Lin has already been ruled out of tonight’s game and while his absence does open the door for a lot of usage, it’s hard to tell where that usage is going to go. We used to be able to plug Sean Kilpatrick in, but he is only averaging 23.1 minutes in his last three games. Spencer Dinwiddie is my favorite play of the three guards from Brooklyn, but there is no reason to take a chance on him with so many great value plays on the board in this slate. Bojan Bogdanovic always carries some GPP value given his upside, but small forward is another position loaded with value tonight. Trevor Booker and Brook Lopez have both flashed upside at times this season, but they draw two of the worst individual matchups in the NBA. Paul Millsap and Dwight Howard have DRPM’s of 4.06 and 2.66, respectively.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Isaiah Whitehead $3,500 $3,600 0.65 22.7 -1.4 14.7 1.0 19.1% 5.1% 27 -2.27
Bojan Bogdanovic $4,200 $4,900 0.74 26.8 -0.6 19.9 1.4 20.7% 0.2% 19 -0.15
Joe Harris $3,500 $3,200 0.63 23.1 -3.0 14.4 -2.6 16.4% 1.0% 10 3.17
Trevor Booker $5,400 $5,600 0.97 27.3 -4.0 26.5 -3.8 17.1% 1.1% 9 4.06
Brook Lopez $7,000 $6,600 1.10 29.2 1.0 32.1 -8.2 27.6% -2.0% 3 2.66
Sean Kilpatrick $4,100 $4,800 0.85 27.3 -4.2 23.2 -5.0 24.6% -0.3% 19 N/A

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Bojan Bogdanovic (FD)

Charlotte Hornets at Houston Rockets – 8:00 PM ET

Charlotte Hornets Houston Rockets
charlottenba Vegas Total 225.5 houstonnba Vegas Total 225.5
Vegas Spread 9.5 Vegas Spread -9.5
Team Total 108.0 Team Total 117.5
Pace +/- 2.3 Pace +/- 0.2
Proj. Starter Kemba Walker Jeremy Lamb Michael Kidd-Gilchrist Marvin Williams Roy Hibbert Proj. Starter Patrick Beverley James Harden Trevor Ariza Ryan Anderson Nene Hilario
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 12 24 22 22 18 DvP 17 15 21 15 25
DRPM 1.51 -1.38 1.84 -0.59 2.27 DRPM -0.90 -0.11 1.69 0.32 1.28

Charlotte Hornets

The Hornets have lost five of their last ten games and could be without Nicolas Batum until January 20th. They need to keep the ship afloat while he’s out or they could quickly find themselves outside of the playoff picture in the Eastern Conference. They draw a difficult matchup against the Rockets, who have the fourth best record in the NBA this season. The good news is that Houston isn’t very effective on the defensive end of the floor, ranking 24th in points allowed per game this season. Even though the Hornets are 9.5-point underdogs on the road, they have an implied total of 108 points, which is the seventh highest in the slate and 2.8 points above their season average.

In general, point guards tend to have lower DRPM’s than other positions due to the fact that so many of the game’s best scorers are point guards. Patrick Beverley has the second best DRPM of any point guard this season, trailing only Chris Paul. Add in the fact that Kemba Walker struggles on the road and he becomes an easy fade in all formats. I would much rather have Kyle Lowry at a similar price point tonight. Jeremy Lamb is close to an auto-play tonight on FanDuel. With Nicolas Batum out, he should see minutes in the mid-20s. I currently have him projected for around 30 fantasy points, which is basically 7x his salary on FanDuel and 6x his salary on DraftKings. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist should also see a small minutes and usage boost with Batum out. He is a viable target in all formats. If you really want to get creative, you can look to Marco Belinelli, who has 30 minute upside off the bench in a favorable matchup. Cody Zeller is not expected to play tonight, which gives a boost to Marvin Williams, Frank Kaminsky, and Spencer Hawes. Of the three, I’m most likely to roster Kaminsky, who is priced under $4,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Kemba Walker $8,300 $8,000 1.11 33.5 -0.2 37.0 -1.3 30.3% 1.4% 12 1.51
Jeremy Lamb $4,000 $5,100 0.99 17.4 0.4 17.3 0.1 22.9% -0.3% 24 -1.38
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist $4,800 $5,000 0.76 29.2 0.5 22.2 4.3 14.5% -0.4% 22 1.84
Marvin Williams $4,600 $4,800 0.74 27.3 0.4 20.3 6.1 17.2% 1.3% 22 -0.59
Roy Hibbert $3,600 $3,000 0.79 16.1 2.4 12.6 3.7 14.0% -2.9% 18 2.27
Marco Belinelli $4,000 $3,800 0.69 24.8 -4.1 17.1 -5.1 18.0% 1.3% 24 N/A
Frank Kaminsky $3,900 $3,900 0.80 24.5 -2.9 19.7 -1.9 20.7% -3.1% 22 N/A
Spencer Hawes $3,800 $3,500 0.89 16.9 9.1 15.1 10.9 20.3% -1.7% 18 N/A

Elite Plays – Jeremy Lamb, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist

Secondary Plays – Kemba Walker (GPP), Marco Belinelli (GPP), Marvin Williams, Frank Kaminsky

Houston Rockets

The Rockets have the longest winning streak in the NBA right now at eight games. They should have no problems extending that to nine games tonight, as they take on a short-handed Hornets’ team at home. Charlotte does have an above-average defense, but they are missing two of their best defenders and very few teams have been able to slow this Rockets’ offense down. Houston comes into the game with an implied total of 117.5 points, which is the highest in the slate and 2.9 points above their season average. We should keep an eye on the availability of Eric Gordon (questionable). If he is unable to suit up, that could result in small usage boosts to Patrick Beverley, Trevor Ariza, and Ryan Anderson.

James Harden is coming off of his tenth triple double of the season. He is on pace for 21 this season, which would be the highest mark of any player in the last ten years. No one seems to be noticing though, because Russell Westbrook already has 17 this year. These two players are having truly great seasons and each player is basically watering down what the other one is doing. Harden remains an elite play tonight at home and with all of the value in the slate, it’s extremely easy to fit him into your lineups. I’m not overly concerned about his matchup against Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. As always, the rest of the Rockets are best suited as tournament plays. Montrezl Harrell has been a viable cash game target recently, but his price is a bit too high for my liking – $5,300 on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Patrick Beverley $5,900 $5,600 0.84 30.8 0.7 26.0 1.7 15.8% -1.0% 17 -0.90
James Harden $11,700 $12,100 1.46 36.6 0.1 53.5 -3.1 38.7% 1.8% 15 -0.11
Trevor Ariza $5,800 $5,700 0.77 33.9 1.4 26.0 -1.1 14.9% -0.3% 21 1.69
Ryan Anderson $5,200 $5,100 0.73 30.8 1.5 22.4 -2.2 17.1% -3.1% 15 0.32
Nene Hilario $3,600 $3,300 0.84 16.8 1.5 14.0 2.8 18.6% -0.3% 25 1.28
Eric Gordon $5,900 $5,900 0.85 30.6 0.6 25.9 4.1 23.8% 3.1% 15 N/A
Montrezl Harrell $5,300 $5,300 0.91 18.5 7.0 16.8 7.7 18.1% 1.3% 25 N/A

Elite Plays – James Harden

Secondary Plays – Patrick Beverley, Ryan Anderson, Trevor Ariza, Eric Gordon, Montrezl Harrell

Milwaukee Bucks at San Antonio Spurs – 8:30 PM ET

Milwaukee Bucks San Antonio Spurs
milwaukeenba Vegas Total 203.5 sanantonionba Vegas Total 203.5
Vegas Spread 9.5 Vegas Spread -9.5
Team Total 97.0 Team Total 106.5
Pace +/- -2.7 Pace +/- -0.9
Proj. Starter Giannis Antetokounmpo Malcolm Brogdon Tony Snell Jabari Parker John Henson Proj. Starter Tony Parker Danny Green Kawhi Leonard David Lee Pau Gasol
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 4 23 1 1 1 DvP 5 14 29 17 7
DRPM -0.99 1.10 1.00 1.09 1.98 DRPM 3.11 -0.40 -0.89 -1.62 1.40

Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks and Sixers are two of the best positioned teams in the Eastern Conference. All of their best players are under the age of 25 and the sky is basically the limit moving forward. While I love Milwaukee’s prospects in the next few years, I don’t love their matchup tonight against the Spurs. On the season, San Antonio is ranked second in points allowed per game and first in defensive efficiency. The Bucks come into this game as 9.5-point underdogs with an implied total of only 97 points. Not only is their team total the second lowest in the slate, but it is also 8.0 points below their season average.

The big question mark for Milwaukee tonight is the status of Giannis Antetokounmpo. He was originally listed as probable for tonight’s game, but after missing this morning’s shoot-around, he is now listed as a game-time decision. If he is unable to suit up, a blowout would be extremely likely here. With that said, his absence would open up a ton of usage for Malcom Brogdon, Jabari Parker, and Greg Monroe, who would all become viable tournament plays. If Giannis is active and is not on any type of minute restriction, he himself would become a viable tournament play. He will likely be defended by Kawhi Leonard and wouldn’t make my list of potential cash game targets, but we have seen the upside that Giannis offers and he is priced at a bargain on DraftKings ($9,700).

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Giannis Antetokounmpo $10,100 $9,700 1.37 35.4 3.0 48.4 0.6 29.9% 1.6% 4 -0.99
Malcolm Brogdon $4,800 $5,400 0.77 24.2 10.8 18.6 11.2 20.0% 0.4% 23 1.10
Tony Snell $3,500 $3,400 0.51 29.3 1.5 15.0 -1.9 12.3% -2.5% 1 1.00
Jabari Parker $6,900 $7,300 0.95 34.1 4.6 32.5 4.9 25.4% -1.6% 1 1.09
John Henson $3,500 $3,400 0.86 20.2 -4.0 17.5 -8.4 16.0% -5.1% 1 1.98
Greg Monroe $6,000 $6,100 1.17 21.0 9.4 24.5 14.2 23.1% 0.5% 1 N/A

Elite Plays – TBD

Secondary Plays – TBD

San Antonio Spurs

The Spurs continue to do what they have done for the last 15 seasons – win basketball games. They are 30-7 overall and are likely going to be a force in the West for the next thousand years. They draw a mediocre matchup tonight against the Bucks, who are ranked tenth in points allowed per game and 11th in defensive efficiency. San Antonio comes into the game as 9.5-point favorites with an implied total of 106.5 points. The Spurs’ fantasy appeal also hinges on the availability of Giannis Antetokounmpo, as we will likely see the line move significantly in San Antonio’s favor if he is ruled out.

LaMarcus Aldridge has been ruled out of tonight’s game, so the very first step of your process should be to hop on over to the CourtIQ tool and run the query with him off the floor. In a sample of 264 minutes with Aldridge off the floor this season (which is plenty big enough to rely on), Kawhi Leonard sees a 4.5% usage boost and a ridiculous FP/min boost of 0.29. On a per-36 minute basis, Leonard averages 52 fantasy points while Aldridge is off the floor. If those numbers don’t leap off the page at you, I’m not sure what will. My hope is that Giannis Antetokounmpo plays so I can target Leonard with confidence in all formats. David Lee is the only other Spurs’ player on my radar tonight in cash games. In the three games that Aldridge has missed this season, Lee has averaged 25.3 fantasy points in 27.6 minutes per contest. Pau Gasol is worth a look in tournaments, as he sees a healthy usage bump of 4.7% with Aldridge out.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Tony Parker $4,700 $4,700 0.78 25.5 -2.1 20.0 5.1 24.3% -0.8% 5 3.11
Danny Green $3,700 $3,900 0.63 25.8 -3.2 16.3 0.1 12.9% 2.2% 14 -0.40
Kawhi Leonard $8,300 $7,900 1.17 33.2 -0.8 38.8 -2.6 29.1% -2.7% 29 -0.89
David Lee $3,500 $3,600 0.91 17.0 -6.7 15.6 -2.2 17.4% 2.3% 17 -1.62
Pau Gasol $6,400 $5,600 1.05 26.6 -1.9 27.9 -0.5 20.8% -4.5% 7 1.40
Patty Mills $3,700 $3,600 0.82 22.2 -3.8 18.2 -1.9 22.1% 2.0% 5 N/A

Elite Plays – Kawhi Leonard, David Lee

Secondary Plays – Pau Gasol

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious