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NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, April 6th - Page Two

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-04-06 22:34:02

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Houston Rockets at Dallas Mavericks – 9:30 PM

Houston Rockets Dallas Mavericks
houstonnba Vegas Total 208.5 dallasnba Vegas Total 208.5
Vegas Sprd -2.0 Vegas Sprd 2.0
Team Proj. 105.3 Team Proj. 103.3
Team Pace 100.00 Team Pace 96.70
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Patrick Beverley James Harden Trevor Ariza Donatas Motiejunas Dwight Howard Proj. Starter Jose Juan Barea Justin Anderson Wesley Matthews Dirk Nowitzki Zaza Pachulia
Opp. Season 14 9 9 25 16 Opp. Season 13 22 30 29 19
Last 3 Weeks 25 9 23 8 14 Last 3 Weeks 22 17 28 7 26

Houston Rockets

Record: 38-39 — Road: 17-22 — Last 10: 4-6

This is by far the best game on the schedule tonight and it very well could decide the eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. The Rockets are currently a game behind the Mavericks and a half game behind the Rockets. They could tie both win a win tonight in Dallas. The Rockets are favored by two points and have an implied team total of 105.3 points. While I love the spot for the Rockets, there is really only one player on my radar tonight.

Elite Plays

James Harden
james-harden-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$10,900 Salary:$10,800
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:1.25 FP/Min:1.37
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 38.1 41.7 3.6 43.0 4.9
FPPG (FD) 47.5 52.5 5.0 52.1 4.6
TO-Adj. Usage 27.3 25.8 -1.5 26.2 -1.2

If you are playing cash games, don’t fade James Harden. He is the premier target at any position tonight and I expect him to be 80% owned in cash. There is always merit to fading a highly owned player in tournaments, but I have a hard time seeing Harden not score 50+ fantasy points. He is playing 40+ minutes on a nightly basis and he has basically been their entire offense.

Secondary Plays

NONE

Dallas Mavericks

Record: 39-38 — Home: 21-17 — Last 10: 5-5

The Mavericks could come close to locking up a playoff spot with a win tonight over the Rockets. With a win, they would hold a two game lead over Houston with only four games to go. This is a critical game for both teams and we should expect the starters to log major minutes. The Mavericks are projected to score 103.3 points, which is the eighth highest team total on the board. This is a favorable matchup by all accounts, as the Rockets are ranked 21st or worse in all four of the defensive categories listed above.

Elite Plays

Dirk Nowitzki
dirk-nowitzki-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,100 Salary:$6,400
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:0.97 FP/Min:1.03
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 31.5 34.1 2.6 32.7 1.2
FPPG (FD) 30.7 32.0 1.3 22.5 -8.2
TO-Adj. Usage 22.3 24.1 1.9 23.9 1.7

My hope is that everyone will see Nowitzki’s game logs and immediately think to avoid him tonight. While his recent performance is less than inspiring, there are a lot of reasons to like Nowitzki. The Mavericks are in a must-win game, which means we should see around 35 minutes for Dirk. The Rockets are one of the worst teams at defending power forwards. And, Nowitzki’s shot volume has not dropped, he just hasn’t made many shots recently. I’m expecting a big game from Nowitzki and I will be using him in all league formats.

Jose Juan Barea
j-j-barea-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,900 Salary:$6,100
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.82 FP/Min:0.89
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 22.5 28.5 6.0 30.5 8.0
FPPG (FD) 18.6 28.8 10.2 33.4 14.9
TO-Adj. Usage 20.6 25.0 4.4 26.8 6.2

Barea has been the biggest reason why the Mavericks are still alive in the playoff hunt. He has been tremendous over his last five games, averaging 33.4 minutes per contest. With Deron Williams out, he should see minutes in the low-30s tonight against the Rockets. His matchup against Patrick Beverley isn’t great, but Houston is only ranked 13th against point guards this season.

Wesley Matthews
wesley-matthews-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,100 Salary:$4,900
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.61 FP/Min:0.67
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 33.6 35.6 2.0 37.1 3.5
FPPG (FD) 20.5 23.8 3.3 24.5 4.0
TO-Adj. Usage 14.8 15.0 0.2 15.5 0.6

Matthews is the third and final elite play on the Mavericks tonight. There are so many reasons why we should want to target Dallas and I actually don’t mind using all three of the players listed in the same lineup. Matthews should see minutes in the upper-30s tonight and he draws a fantastic matchup against James Harden.

Secondary Plays

NONE

Oklahoma City Thunder at Portland Trail Blazers – 10:00 PM

Oklahoma City Thunder Portland Trail Blazers
oklahomacitynba Vegas Total 219.5 portlandnba Vegas Total 219.5
Vegas Sprd 1.5 Vegas Sprd -1.5
Team Proj. 109.0 Team Proj. 110.5
Team Pace 99.40 Team Pace 98.30
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Russell Westbrook Andre Roberson Kevin Durant Serge Ibaka Steven Adams Proj. Starter Damian Lillard C.J. McCollum Al-Farouq Aminu Maurice Harkless Mason Plumlee
Opp. Season 24 18 4 22 27 Opp. Season 18 23 8 8 4
Last 3 Weeks 23 7 4 28 21 Last 3 Weeks 8 29 13 5 5

Oklahoma City Thunder

Record: 54-24 — Road: 23-15 — Last 10: 8-2

The Thunder are in the same spot as the Cavaliers and Clippers. They are all locked into their seeding in their respective conferences, which makes it tough to predict what their rotations will look like down the stretch of the regular season. The Thunder are listed as 1.5-point underdogs tonight against the Blazers, which wouldn’t be the case if Vegas was expecting a full complement of minutes for both Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant. Unless the Thunder decide to rest a player or two tonight, I will be avoiding them for DFS purposes.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

NONE

Portland Trail Blazers

Record: 42-37 — Home: 26-12 — Last 10: 7-3

The Blazers are only a half game behind the Grizzlies for the fifth seed in the Western Conference. A Blazers’ win tonight would actually be best for both teams, as the Blazers would rather face the Clippers (presumably) and the Thunder would rather face the Grizzlies. The Blazers are projected to score 110.5 points tonight, which gives them the third highest team total and the third highest projected point differential on the board.

Elite Plays

C.J. McCollum
c-j-mccollum-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,900 Salary:$7,000
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.91 FP/Min:0.98
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 34.8 35.3 0.5 33.2 -1.6
FPPG (FD) 31.6 33.4 1.8 32.4 0.8
TO-Adj. Usage 23.6 23.5 -0.1 22.6 -1.0

Dollar for dollar, McCollum has been outproducing Damian Lillard over the last few weeks. They have equally favorable matchups tonight against the Thunder and as I mentioned above, the Blazers still have a lot to play for. McCollum has been in solid form recently, averaging 33.4 fantasy points in over 35 minutes in his last ten games.

Secondary Plays

Damian Lillard
damian-lillard-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,000 Salary:$8,700
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.11 FP/Min:1.21
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 35.8 35.3 -0.5 33.0 -2.8
FPPG (FD) 39.8 35.0 -4.8 31.1 -8.8
TO-Adj. Usage 27.7 26.8 -0.8 26.8 -0.9

Lillard is cheap enough on FanDuel that he deserves cash game consideration, but again, I am leaning toward taking the value route at point guard tonight. He draws a nice matchup against the Thunder, but Lillard’s production has been way down over his last ten games. For that reason, I will likely only use him in tournaments.

Maurice Harkless
moe-harkless-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,400 Salary:$4,100
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.70 FP/Min:0.74
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 18.2 26.1 7.9 27.9 9.7
FPPG (FD) 12.7 23.7 11.0 28.5 15.8
TO-Adj. Usage 13.0 16.3 3.3 17.0 4.0

Harkless had a monster second half last night against the Kings. He has been terrific since entering the starting lineup, averaging 28.5 fantasy points over his last five games. This does feel a bit like chasing points, though. If Kevin Durant is active, Harless will have some difficult matchups tonight against Durant and Serge Ibaka. Harkless is certainly still in play, but I don’t consider him a must.

Los Angeles Clippers at Los Angeles Lakers – 10:30 PM

Los Angeles Clippers Los Angeles Lakers
laclippersnba Vegas Total 204.5 lalakersnba Vegas Total 204.5
Vegas Sprd -11.0 Vegas Sprd 11.0
Team Proj. 107.8 Team Proj. 96.8
Team Pace 98.10 Team Pace 98.00
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Chris Paul J.J. Redick Luc Richard Mbah a Moute Blake Griffin DeAndre Jordan Proj. Starter D’Angelo Russell Jordan Clarkson Kobe Bryant Julius Randle Roy Hibbert
Opp. Season 30 28 28 19 28 Opp. Season 8 3 11 11 15
Last 3 Weeks 29 30 10 12 27 Last 3 Weeks 18 5 7 26 6

Los Angeles Clippers

Record: 49-28 — Road: 22-16 — Last 10: 6-4

The Clippers picked up an easy win over the Lakers last night and now turn around and face them again tonight. Even though this game will technically be on the road, we should expect a similar result, unless of course the Clippers decide to rest players. Hopefully, they will give us an update on their plans for tonight before lineups lock. The Clippers are currently listed as 11-point favorites.

Elite / Secondary Plays

TBD – If the Clippers decide to rest Chris Paul, Austin Rivers and Jamal Crawford would become viable options. If they decide to rest DeAndre Jordan, Cole Aldrich would become a nice play. If they don’t rest anyone, I will just be avoiding the Clippers altogether.

Jamal Crawford
jamal-crawford-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,900 Salary:$4,700
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.74 FP/Min:0.80
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 26.7 27.8 1.1 26.0 -0.7
FPPG (FD) 19.7 22.9 3.2 23.9 4.2
TO-Adj. Usage 21.0 20.3 -0.7 20.8 -0.1
Austin Rivers
austin-rivers-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$3,900 Salary:$3,600
Position:PG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.64 FP/Min:0.69
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 21.8 23.8 2.0 23.9 2.1
FPPG (FD) 14.0 19.5 5.5 23.7 9.7
TO-Adj. Usage 16.2 19.3 3.1 20.8 4.7
Cole Aldrich
cole-aldrich-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$3,500 Salary:$3,300
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:1.10 FP/Min:1.16
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 12.5 15.1 2.6 16.9 4.4
FPPG (FD) 13.8 15.1 1.4 16.8 3.0
TO-Adj. Usage 14.2 9.5 -4.7 8.6 -5.6

Los Angeles Lakers

Record: 16-61 — Home: 11-28 — Last 10: 2-8

The Lakers are a mess right now. Even with Brandon Bass and Lou Williams out of the rotation, there still wasn’t a standout fantasy option on the Lakers last night. They are double-digit underdogs against the Clippers tonight and they have the second lowest team total on the board at only 96.8 points. Jordan Clarkson, Julius Randle, and Kobe Bryant are intriguing GPP fliers, but I will be avoiding all of the Lakers in cash games tonight.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

NONE

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious