NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, April 6th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
Detroit Pistons at Orlando Magic – 7:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Orlando -2, 208.5 Over/Under
- Detroit Pistons Proj. Starters – Jackson-Caldwell-Pope-Harris-Morris-Drummond
- Orlando Magic Proj. Starters – Payton-Oladipo-Fournier-Gordon-Dedmon
| Detroit Pistons | Orlando Magic | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 208.5 | | Vegas Total | 208.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 2.0 | Vegas Sprd | -2.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 103.3 | Team Proj. | 105.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.50 | Team Pace | 98.10 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj. Starter | Reggie Jackson | Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | Tobias Harris | Marcus Morris | Andre Drummond | Proj. Starter | Elfrid Payton | Victor Oladipo | Evan Fournier | Aaron Gordon | Dewayne Dedmon | |
| Opp. Season | 15 | 5 | 18 | 23 | 18 | Opp. Season | 12 | 7 | 3 | 13 | 11 | |
| Last 3 Weeks | 1 | 6 | 20 | 27 | 28 | Last 3 Weeks | 27 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 30 | |
Detroit Pistons
Record: 41-37 — Road: 16-23 — Last 10: 7-3
- Detroit Pistons Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 101.7 (19 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 103.3 (8 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 1.6 (6 of 16)
- Orlando Magic Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.3 (18 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.2 (16 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.6 (17 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 202.5 (20 of 30)
The Pistons still have a lot to play for, as they are currently a half game behind the Pacers for the seventh seed in the Eastern Conference. They would much rather face the Raptors, who have a banged up Kyle Lowry than they would the Cavaliers. The Pistons are 2-point underdogs tonight against the Magic with an implied team total of 103.3 points. While this isn’t an outstanding matchup, the Pistons have tightened their rotation down the stretch of the regular season. We can basically expect all starters to play 35+ minutes, with the exception of Reggie Jackson.
- Injury Watch:
NO INJURIES
Elite Plays
| Andre Drummond | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$8,000 | Salary:$7,500 | ||||
| Position:C | Position:C | ||||
| FP/Min:1.19 | FP/Min:1.28 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 33.0 | 31.4 | -1.6 | 31.7 | -1.3 |
| FPPG (FD) | 39.4 | 36.2 | -3.2 | 34.4 | -5.0 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 20.3 | 19.4 | -0.9 | 18.3 | -2.1 |
Drummond is back to playing like the Drummond that we all know and love in daily fantasy basketball. He is rebounding at a high rate and finishing at the rim. Over his last ten games, he is averaging 36.2 fantasy points in just under 32 minutes per contest. He draws a nice matchup against the Magic, who have allowed the third most fantasy point to centers over the last three weeks.
Secondary Plays
| Tobias Harris | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$6,400 | Salary:$6,200 | ||||
| Position:PF | Position:SF | ||||
| FP/Min:0.83 | FP/Min:0.88 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 33.1 | 33.3 | 0.2 | 35.3 | 2.2 |
| FPPG (FD) | 27.4 | 30.0 | 2.6 | 33.4 | 6.1 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 16.8 | 19.1 | 2.3 | 19.2 | 2.4 |
Revenge game! The revenge narrative is often overvalued in DFS, but it never hurts when the player has a good matchup to go along with it. The Magic have not fared well against power forwards, ranking 23rd on the season and 27th over the last three weeks of play. Harris also comes into the game in good form, averaging 33.4 fantasy points in his last five games.
| Marcus Morris | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$6,200 | Salary:$5,600 | ||||
| Position:SF | Position:SF | ||||
| FP/Min:0.69 | FP/Min:0.74 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 35.8 | 35.7 | -0.1 | 36.8 | 1.0 |
| FPPG (FD) | 24.8 | 29.1 | 4.4 | 30.8 | 6.0 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 16.0 | 15.4 | -0.6 | 16.1 | 0.1 |
Morris had the down game that many of us were waiting for. He went 0-for-7 from the field against the Heat last night. He should be able to bounce back tonight against the Magic, though. Even with that poor showing last night, he is still averaging 29.1 fantasy points over his last ten games. He should see 35+ minutes of action, making him a safe play in all formats.
Orlando Magic
Record: 33-44 — Home: 21-17 — Last 10: 4-6
- Orlando Magic Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 101.9 (17 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 105.3 (6 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 3.3 (4 of 16)
- Detroit Pistons Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.3 (12 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.4 (13 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 3.7 (4 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 195.1 (9 of 30)
The Magic have lost six of their last ten games and are now 33-44 overall. They are listed as small favorites tonight against the Pistons at home. At the moment, the Bulls and the Wizards are huge Magic fans, as they are both trying to catch the Pistons for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. The Magic are projected to score 105.3 points, which gives them the sixth highest team total and the fourth highest projected point differential.
- Injury Watch:
NO INJURIES
Elite Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
| Nikola Vucevic | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$8,000 | Salary:$6,900 | ||||
| Position:C | Position:C | ||||
| FP/Min:1.10 | FP/Min:1.17 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 31.5 | 26.4 | -5.1 | 26.4 | -5.1 |
| FPPG (FD) | 34.7 | 38.8 | 4.1 | 38.8 | 4.1 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 22.9 | 27.4 | 4.5 | 27.4 | 4.5 |
It sounds like Vucevic will continue to come off the bench, but he is coming off of a game in which he played 32 minutes. He has been terrific since coming back from injury and you have to like the upside that he provides at this price point. His minutes are still in flux, but we should be able to project him in the 28-32 range tonight against the Pistons.
Cleveland Cavaliers at Indiana Pacers – 7:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Indiana -1.5, 201 Over/Under
- Cleveland Cavaliers Proj. Starters – Irving-Smith-James-Love-Mozgov
- Indiana Pacers Proj. Starters – Hill-Ellis-George-Allen-Mahinmi
| Cleveland Cavaliers | Indiana Pacers | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 201.0 | | Vegas Total | 201.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 1.5 | Vegas Sprd | -1.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 99.8 | Team Proj. | 101.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.50 | Team Pace | 99.10 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj. Starter | Kyrie Irving | J.R. Smith | LeBron James | Kevin Love | Timofey Mozgov | Proj. Starter | George Hill | Monta Ellis | Paul George | Lavoy Allen | Ian Mahinmi | |
| Opp. Season | 9 | 11 | 5 | 9 | 17 | Opp. Season | 18 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| Last 3 Weeks | 4 | 19 | 12 | 1 | 23 | Last 3 Weeks | 13 | 16 | 16 | 10 | 9 | |
Cleveland Cavaliers
Record: 56-22 — Road: 24-15 — Last 10: 7-3
- Cleveland Cavaliers Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 104.2 (8 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 99.8 (12 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: -4.5 (15 of 16)
- Indiana Pacers Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.4 (7 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 100.0 (3 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.7 (18 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 194.7 (7 of 30)
The Cavaliers currently hold a three and a half game lead over the Raptors for the top seed in the Eastern Conference. They are playing in the second half of a back-to-back tonight and with little to play for, it will be interesting to see if the Cavaliers decide to rest anyone. They are currently listed as 1.5-point underdogs against the Pacers, which shows that this game means a lot more to Indiana. The fantasy appeal of the Cavaliers hinges on who is in the lineup.
- Injury Watch:
NO INJURIES
Elite / Secondary Plays
TBD – If the Cavaliers decide to rest one of their three stars, the other two would see a major fantasy boost. The issue is that the Cavaliers don’t have much to play for, so we could see limited minutes for the starters, regardless of players resting or not. We are to the point of the season where we want to target players whose minutes are predictable.
| LeBron James | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$10,600 | Salary:$9,900 | ||||
| Position:SF | Position:SF | ||||
| FP/Min:1.26 | FP/Min:1.36 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 35.7 | 34.6 | -1.1 | 36.0 | 0.3 |
| FPPG (FD) | 45.1 | 50.0 | 4.9 | 51.5 | 6.4 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 27.6 | 28.3 | 0.7 | 25.8 | -1.8 |
| Kyrie Irving | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$7,200 | Salary:$7,200 | ||||
| Position:PG | Position:PG | ||||
| FP/Min:0.96 | FP/Min:1.03 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 31.3 | 32.0 | 0.7 | 32.5 | 1.2 |
| FPPG (FD) | 30.2 | 28.9 | -1.3 | 33.6 | 3.4 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 25.8 | 23.9 | -1.9 | 27.7 | 1.9 |
| Kevin Love | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$7,000 | Salary:$7,000 | ||||
| Position:PF | Position:PF | ||||
| FP/Min:1.02 | FP/Min:1.12 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 31.7 | 29.0 | -2.7 | 29.2 | -2.5 |
| FPPG (FD) | 32.4 | 31.9 | -0.5 | 31.7 | -0.7 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 19.8 | 21.5 | 1.8 | 20.7 | 0.9 |
Indiana Pacers
Record: 41-36 — Home: 23-15 — Last 10: 5-5
- Indiana Pacers Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 101.7 (19 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 101.3 (10 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: -0.5 (8 of 16)
- Cleveland Cavaliers Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.8 (3 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.8 (10 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 3.8 (3 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 189.1 (3 of 30)
The Pacers are not in any danger of missing the postseason (unless they lose out), but they are in danger of dropping to the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference. They have a lot to play for tonight, as they want to avoid a first round series against this same Cavaliers’ team. The Pacers are small favorites tonight, but they are only projected to score 101.3 points. George Hill has a nice track record against Cleveland, but with all of the value at point guard, he’s not really on my radar tonight.
- Injury Watch:
NO INJURIES
Elite Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
| Paul George | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$8,900 | Salary:$8,300 | ||||
| Position:SF | Position:SF | ||||
| FP/Min:1.11 | FP/Min:1.22 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 35.2 | 34.3 | -0.9 | 34.0 | -1.2 |
| FPPG (FD) | 39.2 | 39.9 | 0.7 | 41.9 | 2.7 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 25.3 | 25.9 | 0.6 | 24.0 | -1.3 |
Targeting players against the Cavaliers is not something that I do on a regular basis, but I may make an exception for George tonight. The Pacers have a lot to play for and they are playing at home, which should help keep the game competitive. George also has a decent track record against Cleveland, scoring 50, 28, and 44 fantasy points in their first three meetings this season.
Brooklyn Nets at Washington Wizards – 7:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Washington -14, 208 Over/Under
- Brooklyn Nets Proj. Starters – Larkin-Ellington-Bogdanovic-Robinson-Sims
- Washington Wizards Proj. Starters – Wall-Beal-Porter-Morris-Gortat
| Brooklyn Nets | Washington Wizards | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 208.0 | | Vegas Total | 208.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 14.0 | Vegas Sprd | -14.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 97.0 | Team Proj. | 111.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.20 | Team Pace | 100.50 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj. Starter | Shane Larkin | Wayne Ellington | Bojan Bogdanovic | Thomas Robinson | Henry Sims | Proj. Starter | John Wall | Brad Beal | Otto Porter | Markieff Morris | Marcin Gortat | |
| Opp. Season | 20 | 17 | 21 | 7 | 9 | Opp. Season | 23 | 25 | 24 | 17 | 25 | |
| Last 3 Weeks | 30 | 3 | 1 | 23 | 13 | Last 3 Weeks | 16 | 27 | 27 | 17 | 22 | |
Brooklyn Nets
Record: 21-56 — Road: 7-31 — Last 10: 2-8
- Brooklyn Nets Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 98.4 (27 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 97.0 (13 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: -1.4 (12 of 16)
- Washington Wizards Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.6 (21 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.7 (15 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.8 (25 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 200.7 (14 of 30)
The Nets are looking at all of their young players to see who they want to bring back and where they want to go in terms of the direction of the organization. They have shut Brook Lopez and Thaddeus Young down for the season, which opens up a number of viable fantasy options. Even though the Nets are huge underdogs against the Wizards, there are two standout value plays. Willie Reed will not play tonight. With Lopez and Young also out, there should be a ton of minutes for Thomas Robinson and Henry Sims.
- Injury Watch:
Willie Reed (Out)
Elite Plays
| Thomas Robinson | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$6,000 | Salary:$4,700 | ||||
| Position:PF | Position:PF | ||||
| FP/Min:0.95 | FP/Min:1.03 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 12.4 | 22.9 | 10.5 | 27.2 | 14.8 |
| FPPG (FD) | 11.8 | 22.5 | 10.8 | 33.2 | 21.4 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 15.0 | 17.9 | 2.9 | 20.6 | 5.6 |
Robinson is going to be 90% owned on DraftKings tonight. His price is just too cheap with Brook Lopez and Thaddeus Young out. His ownership should be much lower on FanDuel, as he is priced at $6,000. Given the matchup, I don’t consider him a must play tonight on FanDuel, but he is still a very strong play. Over his last five games, he is averaging 33.2 fantasy points in just over 27 minutes per contest.
Secondary Plays
| Shane Larkin | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$4,500 | Salary:$4,300 | ||||
| Position:PG | Position:PG | ||||
| FP/Min:0.77 | FP/Min:0.83 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 21.9 | 27.9 | 6.0 | 31.6 | 9.7 |
| FPPG (FD) | 16.9 | 22.4 | 5.5 | 24.7 | 7.8 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 15.2 | 15.1 | -0.1 | 14.1 | -1.2 |
Larkin has been on a nice run over his last five games, averaging 24.7 fantasy points in 31.6 minutes per contest. It appears that the Nets are over the Donald Sloan experiment and are now looking to see what they have in Larkin. He should see 30+ minutes tonight against the Wizards, who are ranked dead last against point guards over the last three weeks of play.
Washington Wizards
Record: 37-40 — Home: 19-19 — Last 10: 5-5
- Washington Wizards Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 103.5 (10 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 111.0 (2 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 7.5 (1 of 16)
- Brooklyn Nets Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.3 (23 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.8 (29 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.4 (14 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 207.2 (24 of 30)
The Wizards are hanging onto hope that they can somehow sneak into the playoffs. They are currently three and a half games behind the Pistons for the eighth and final spot, but a win and a Detroit loss would narrow the gap. Washington also has a game against Detroit coming up, which could narrow the gap even more. The Wizards should treat tonight’s game as a must win. While the 14-point line is a bit worrisome, we at least know that the Wizards have something to play for. All five starters deserve fantasy consideration here, but Marcin Gortat, Markieff Morris, Otto Porter are best suited as low-owned GPP targets.
- Injury Watch:
Alan Anderson (Out)
Elite Plays
| Brad Beal | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$5,800 | Salary:$5,900 | ||||
| Position:SG | Position:SG | ||||
| FP/Min:0.84 | FP/Min:0.91 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 31.3 | 34.8 | 3.5 | 33.8 | 2.5 |
| FPPG (FD) | 26.4 | 26.1 | -0.3 | 25.8 | -0.6 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 21.3 | 18.7 | -2.6 | 20.3 | -1.0 |
Beal’s production has been inconsistent recently, but his minutes have been way up. He should see minutes in the low-30s tonight against the Nets, who are ranked 25th against shooting guards this season. Beal provides nice upside for the price and I slightly prefer to use him over John Wall when you factor in their respective salaries.
Secondary Plays
| John Wall | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$9,400 | Salary:$9,800 | ||||
| Position:PG | Position:PG | ||||
| FP/Min:1.17 | FP/Min:1.28 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 36.2 | 37.8 | 1.6 | 36.1 | -0.1 |
| FPPG (FD) | 42.3 | 42.6 | 0.3 | 40.5 | -1.8 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 24.6 | 23.8 | -0.9 | 22.8 | -1.8 |
Wall has a ton of upside in this matchup, but I always hesitate to pay a premium for a player in what could easily turn into a blowout. Wall comes into this game in good form, averaging 42.6 fantasy points over his last ten games. With all of the value at point guard, I see Wall as more of a GPP play tonight.
New Orleans Pelicans at Boston Celtics – 7:30 PM
- Vegas Line – Boston -14.5, 208.5 Over/Under
- New Orleans Pelicans Proj. Starters – Frazier-Douglas-Babbitt-Cunningham-Asik
- Boston Celtics Proj. Starters – Thomas-Bradley-Crowder-Johnson-Sullinger
| New Orleans Pelicans | Boston Celtics | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 208.5 | | Vegas Total | 208.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 14.5 | Vegas Sprd | -14.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 97.0 | Team Proj. | 111.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 98.90 | Team Pace | 101.10 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj. Starter | Tim Frazier | Toney Douglas | Luke Babbitt | Dante Cunningham | Omer Asik | Proj. Starter | Isaiah Thomas | Avery Bradley | Jae Crowder | Amir Johnson | Jared Sullinger | |
| Opp. Season | 1 | 12 | 22 | 27 | 26 | Opp. Season | 16 | 26 | 17 | 20 | 29 | |
| Last 3 Weeks | 10 | 26 | 25 | 22 | 18 | Last 3 Weeks | 21 | 12 | 18 | 25 | 10 | |
New Orleans Pelicans
Record: 29-48 — Road: 9-30 — Last 10: 4-6
- New Orleans Pelicans Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 102.5 (15 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 97.0 (13 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: -5.5 (16 of 16)
- Boston Celtics Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.3 (13 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 100.7 (4 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.9 (20 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 199.4 (12 of 30)
The Pelicans pulled the old switcharoo last night. After announcing that James Ennis would start over Luke Babbitt, they corrected the mistake and put Babbitt back in the starting lineup right after leagues locked. While that was frustrating, New Orleans has been a great source of value recently. The main thing to monitor here is the starting lineup. They have been rotating guys in and out of the starting five and we have seen the starters get more run than the bench guys. Alexis Ajinca and Luke Babbitt are both strong plays if they start again tonight. James Ennis is more of a cheap GPP flier, unless he draws the start.
- Injury Watch:
Ryan Anderson (Out)
Norris Cole (Out)
Elite Plays
| Tim Frazier | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$5,000 | Salary:$4,600 | ||||
| Position:PG | Position:PG | ||||
| FP/Min:0.79 | FP/Min:0.85 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 12.1 | 28.2 | 16.1 | 30.0 | 17.9 |
| FPPG (FD) | 9.6 | 27.7 | 18.2 | 32.2 | 22.6 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 15.4 | 18.5 | 3.2 | 19.0 | 3.6 |
Frazier was one of the most popular plays at any position last night. After being named the starter, everyone hopped on board. He didn’t disappoint, scoring 37 fantasy points in 36 minutes of action. While he draws a much tougher matchup tonight, he is still an elite play given his role in this Pelicans’ offense. I expect his ownership to be north of 50% in cash games tonight.
Secondary Plays
| Jordan Hamilton | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$4,600 | Salary:$4,200 | ||||
| Position:SF | Position:SF | ||||
| FP/Min:0.88 | FP/Min:0.94 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 28.0 | 27.8 | -0.2 | 28.5 | 0.5 |
| FPPG (FD) | 24.6 | 23.9 | -0.8 | 24.5 | -0.1 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 17.8 | 16.9 | -0.9 | 16.5 | -1.2 |
After playing well in every single game with the Pelicans, they decided to bring him off the bench last night. I have no idea what the Pelicans are doing right now, but it wouldn’t surprise me if Hamilton is back in the starting lineup tonight. I obviously prefer him as a starter, but he should see 25+ minutes of action either way.
Boston Celtics
Record: 45-32 — Home: 25-12 — Last 10: 6-4
- Boston Celtics Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 105.7 (5 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 111.5 (1 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 5.8 (2 of 16)
- New Orleans Pelicans Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.7 (24 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.5 (25 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.8 (24 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 205.0 (22 of 30)
The Celtics still have a lot to play for, as they are in a three-way tie with the Hawks and Heat with 32 losses on the season. There are still two home seeds up for grabs in the East and the Celtics certainly want to do everything they can to secure one of them. They should be able to pick up an easy win tonight against the D-League Pelicans. The major concern here is that with a 14.5-point spread, this game could easily be over by halftime. Evan Turner is not expected to play tonight, which gives a small boost to Jae Crowder.
- Injury Watch:
Evan Turner (Doubtful)
Elite Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
| Isaiah Thomas | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$7,700 | Salary:$7,800 | ||||
| Position:PG | Position:PG | ||||
| FP/Min:1.08 | FP/Min:1.16 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 32.5 | 32.2 | -0.3 | 31.5 | -1.0 |
| FPPG (FD) | 35.1 | 33.6 | -1.5 | 31.2 | -3.9 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 26.2 | 27.8 | 1.6 | 29.3 | 3.1 |
With all of the value at point guard, I will limit my Thomas exposure to strictly GPPs. He has been on fire recently, but the Celtics are huge favorites at home. If the game gets out of hand, Thomas may only see three quarters of action. The upside is there, but so is the downside.
| Jae Crowder | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$6,200 | Salary:$5,800 | ||||
| Position:SF | Position:SF | ||||
| FP/Min:0.84 | FP/Min:0.90 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 31.9 | 32.7 | 0.8 | 32.7 | 0.8 |
| FPPG (FD) | 26.9 | 36.5 | 9.6 | 36.5 | 9.6 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 16.3 | 21.5 | 5.2 | 21.5 | 5.2 |
Crowder has played well since returning from injury, scoring 31 and 42 fantasy points in his first two games back. He should see a small boost tonight with Evan Turner out and he draws a great matchup against the Pelicans, who are arguably a bottom five defensive team in the NBA.
Charlotte Hornets at New York Knicks – 7:30 PM
- Vegas Line – Charlotte -5, 196.5 Over/Under
- Charlotte Hornets Proj. Starters – Walker-Lin-Lee-Williams-Zeller
- New York Knicks Proj. Starters – Grant-Vujacic-Anthony-Williams-Lopez
| Charlotte Hornets | New York Knicks | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 196.5 | | Vegas Total | 196.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -5.0 | Vegas Sprd | 5.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 100.8 | Team Proj. | 95.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.70 | Team Pace | 95.90 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj. Starter | Kemba Walker | Jeremy Lin | Courtney Lee | Marvin Williams | Cody Zeller | Proj. Starter | Jerian Grant | Sasha Vujacic | Carmelo Anthony | Derrick Williams | Robin Lopez | |
| Opp. Season | 17 | 16 | 10 | 6 | 12 | Opp. Season | 11 | 12 | 19 | 21 | 13 | |
| Last 3 Weeks | 17 | 14 | 21 | 6 | 8 | Last 3 Weeks | 6 | 18 | 14 | 19 | 20 | |
Charlotte Hornets
Record: 44-33 — Road: 16-22 — Last 10: 6-4
- Charlotte Hornets Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 102.9 (11 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 100.8 (11 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: -2.2 (13 of 16)
- New York Knicks Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.0 (11 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.6 (18 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.1 (13 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 197.1 (11 of 30)
The Hornets lost last night, but they still have a chance to move up in the Eastern Conference standings. They are only one game (in the loss column) behind the Heat, Celtics, and Hawks. Tonight they head to New York to take on the Knicks. This is a mediocre matchup at best, as the Hornets are only projected to score 100.8 points. They have the fourth lowest projected point differential on the board. Nicolas Batum was unable to suit up for last night’s game. He is currently listed as questionable, but for our purposes, let’s assume that he is out.
- Injury Watch:
Jeremy Lin (Probable)
Nicolas Batum (Questionable)
Elite Plays
| Jeremy Lin | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$4,200 | Salary:$4,100 | ||||
| Position:SG | Position:PG | ||||
| FP/Min:0.79 | FP/Min:0.85 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 25.9 | 26.9 | 1.0 | 29.0 | 3.1 |
| FPPG (FD) | 20.6 | 23.2 | 2.6 | 25.5 | 4.9 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 18.4 | 18.9 | 0.5 | 16.0 | -2.4 |
This pick hinges on the status of Nicolas Batum. If he is ruled out, Lin would draw another start at shooting guard. He was terrific in his spot start last night, scoring 35 fantasy points in 40 minutes of action. The Hornets still have a lot to play for and Lin is heading back to his old stomping grounds in Madison Square Garden.
Secondary Plays
| Kemba Walker | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$8,100 | Salary:$7,900 | ||||
| Position:PG | Position:PG | ||||
| FP/Min:1.01 | FP/Min:1.08 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 36.0 | 35.4 | -0.6 | 35.7 | -0.3 |
| FPPG (FD) | 36.2 | 32.2 | -4.0 | 34.7 | -1.5 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 23.1 | 22.5 | -0.6 | 23.4 | 0.2 |
Like John Wall and Isaiah Thomas, Walker is more of a tournament play tonight. There is enough value at the position that you don’t have to spend up on an elite point guard. Walker didn’t play well last night, but he took 16 shots. He sees a major usage boost without Nicolas Batum in the lineup. On the season, he has a usage rate of 32 with Batum off the floor.
New York Knicks
Record: 31-47 — Home: 18-21 — Last 10: 3-7
- New York Knicks Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 98.5 (26 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 95.8 (16 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: -2.8 (14 of 16)
- Charlotte Hornets Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.6 (8 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.7 (9 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.7 (18 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 200.8 (15 of 30)
The Knicks have nothing to play for at this point of the season and they are giving their young players an extended look. They are listed as 5-point underdogs tonight against the Hornets at home. The Knicks are only projected to score 95.8 points, which gives them the lowest team total and the third lowest projected point differential on the board. Kristaps Porzingis and Jose Calderon are both expected to miss tonight’s game, which should mean another start for both Derrick Williams and Jerian Grant.
- Injury Watch:
Kristaps Porzingis (Doubtful)
Jose Calderon (Doubtful)
Elite Plays
| Jerian Grant | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$3,600 | Salary:$3,800 | ||||
| Position:PG | Position:PG | ||||
| FP/Min:0.69 | FP/Min:0.73 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 15.8 | 17.4 | 1.6 | 19.3 | 3.5 |
| FPPG (FD) | 10.9 | 11.5 | 0.7 | 12.5 | 1.7 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 15.9 | 17.1 | 1.2 | 16.8 | 0.9 |
After putting up a 6/2/2/1 stat line in the first quarter the other night, Grant only added one rebound the rest of the game. He let a lot of people down on Sunday and that should suppress his ownership tonight. I’m more than willing to go back to the well though, as he is expected to draw another start for Jose Calderon. We shouldn’t overthink this one – Grant is a starting point guard that is close to minimum salary.
Secondary Plays
| Derrick Williams | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$3,700 | Salary:$4,300 | ||||
| Position:PF | Position:SF | ||||
| FP/Min:0.86 | FP/Min:0.91 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 17.4 | 21.0 | 3.6 | 25.2 | 7.8 |
| FPPG (FD) | 15.0 | 16.0 | 1.0 | 18.5 | 3.5 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 20.3 | 17.6 | -2.7 | 16.5 | -3.9 |
Williams hasn’t had any huge outings since entering the starting lineup, but he has played well in his last three games, scoring 23, 19, and 21 fantasy points. He is a viable punt play again tonight, as Kristaps Porzingis is expected to miss another game. This is a pretty favorable matchup, as the Hornets are ranked 21st against power forwards this season.
