NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, January 17th

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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ


Washington Wizards at Charlotte Hornets – 7:00 PM ET

Washington Wizards Charlotte Hornets
Article Image Vegas Total 214.0 Article Image Vegas Total 214.0
Vegas Spread 1.5 Vegas Spread -1.5
Implied Team Total 106.3 Implied Team Total 107.8
Pace Projection +/- 1.2 Pace Projection +/- 0.1
Projected Starters John Wall Bradley Beal Otto Porter Markieff Morris Marcin Gortat Projected Starters Kemba Walker Nicolas Batum Michael Kidd-Gilchrist Marvin Williams Dwight Howard
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 20 12 25 15 2 DvP 14 7 22 6 7
DRPM Rat. 13 10 9 21 8 DRPM Rat. 9 11 1 18 9

Washington Wizards

We kick off tonight’s 10-game slate with the Wizards and Hornets. This isn’t the best game environment possible, but it’s not the worst. The total for the game is set at 214 points and we basically have a pick ‘em with a spread of only 1.5 points. The Wizards come into the game with an implied total of 214 points, which is nearly identical to their season average.

John Wall has been on a tear over his last five games, averaging 40 minutes and 53 fantasy points per contest. While the form is nice and while the Hornets have struggled to defend point guards this season, I will be fading Wall tonight. There are two point guards that I like above him (Stephen Curry and Russell Westbrook) and a host of point guards in the mid-range that I have my eye on. Bradley Beal is far too expensive for me to target, especially on the road against the likes of Nicolas Batum and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist.

Otto Porter has shown flashes of upside recently, but he’s inconsistent for a player that is priced above $6,000. He is far from a safe cash game play, but he does offer a high ceiling for tournaments. Markieff Morris has been upgraded to probable and should play close to 30 minutes in a favorable matchup against the Hornets. On the season, Charlotte is ranked 23rd in efficiency against power forwards. The problem is that there are a few elite values at his position. As strange as it sounds, I actually prefer to target Marcin Gortat in difficult matchups. They will need his defense against Dwight Howard and there’s a good chance that he pushes for 30 minutes. Gortat is a sneaky tournament play at sub-10% ownership.

Notable Injuries

Markieff Morris (Probable)

Washington Wizards Offense

Points Per Game: 106.8 (10 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 106.3 (11 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: -0.5 (14 of 20)

Matchup vs. Charlotte Hornets

Points Allowed Per Game: 105.7 (15 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.5 (9 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.9 (6 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.7 (10 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L5 +/- Minutes L5 +/- FP/Min True Usage EFF DVP DRPM
John Wall $10,100 $9,700 42.3 11.0 34.4 5.9 1.23 29.0% 23 20 13
Bradley Beal $8,300 $7,700 37.2 -0.8 36.0 4.4 1.03 26.3% 9 12 10
Otto Porter $6,600 $6,100 30.0 -3.7 31.9 4.2 0.94 16.4% 21 25 9
Markieff Morris $4,700 $4,900 20.2 0.8 25.2 3.8 0.80 15.8% 23 15 21
Marcin Gortat $5,400 $5,200 24.8 3.7 27.3 1.3 0.91 13.7% 5 2 8
Kelly Oubre $4,600 $4,500 22.1 0.6 27.2 2.5 0.81 16.1% N/A N/A N/A
Mike Scott $3,500 $3,600 14.9 -5.9 18.7 -3.3 0.79 16.6% N/A N/A N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Otto Porter (GPP), Markieff Morris (FD), Marcin Gortat (GPP)


Charlotte Hornets

The Hornets have plenty of talent on their roster, but that hasn’t turned into wins this season. If the regular season ended today, they would be headed for the lottery. They draw a mediocre matchup tonight against the Wizards, who are ranked tenth or better in points allowed per game and defensive efficiency. The good news is that the Hornets are playing at home where 11 of their 17 wins have come this season. Charlotte has an implied total of 107.8 points, which is three points above their season average.

Kemba Walker has been off my radar for a couple of weeks, but I’m buying back in tonight. His price is under $8,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings and he has averaged 39 fantasy points over his last five games. Walker has scored at least 34 fantasy points in four of his last five games against John Wall, including a 56 fantasy point outing last April. There will be some talk about Nicolas Batum as a play tonight, but there are far too many shooting guards that I would rather target in a 10-game slate. The only other play of note here is Dwight Howard. He isn’t the most reliable fantasy option, but has played well over his last five games. During that stretch, he has averaged 33 minutes and 40 fantasy points.

Notable Injuries

Frank Kaminsky (Probable)

Charlotte Hornets Offense

Points Per Game: 105.0 (16 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 107.8 (9 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: 2.8 (9 of 20)

Matchup vs. Washington Wizards

Points Allowed Per Game: 104.6 (10 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.4 (8 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.5 (17 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.6 (13 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L5 +/- Minutes L5 +/- FP/Min True Usage EFF DVP DRPM
Kemba Walker $7,900 $7,500 36.9 2.5 34.7 -0.1 1.06 26.7% 9 14 9
Nicolas Batum $5,600 $5,700 24.4 -3.3 31.2 1.5 0.78 17.8% 6 7 11
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist $4,900 $4,100 21.1 -1.5 26.6 0.6 0.79 15.6% 15 22 1
Marvin Williams $4,400 $4,300 19.7 6.8 25.9 0.0 0.76 12.7% 21 6 18
Dwight Howard $8,900 $7,600 35.4 5.2 30.3 2.8 1.17 19.6% 11 7 9
Frank Kaminsky $4,800 $4,200 18.9 -3.2 23.2 -0.8 0.81 19.2% N/A N/A N/A
Jeremy Lamb $4,500 $5,100 25.4 -5.1 25.9 -4.7 0.98 21.7% N/A N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Kemba Walker

Secondary Plays – Dwight Howard (GPP)


San Antonio Spurs at Brooklyn Nets – 7:30 PM ET

San Antonio Spurs Brooklyn Nets
Article Image Vegas Total 207.5 Article Image Vegas Total 207.5
Vegas Spread -6.5 Vegas Spread 6.5
Implied Team Total 107.0 Implied Team Total 100.5
Pace Projection +/- 2.8 Pace Projection +/- -2.8
Projected Starters Tony Parker Danny Green Kawhi Leonard LaMarcus Aldridge Pau Gasol Projected Starters Spencer Dinwiddie Allen Crabbe DeMarre Carroll Rondae Hollis-Jefferson Tyler Zeller
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 27 19 16 28 29 DvP 2 3 7 1 6
DRPM Rat. 3 16 3 21 14 DRPM Rat. 15 1 2 19 4

San Antonio Spurs

The Spurs will be short-handed tonight, as they take on the Hawks. Kawhi Leonard, Manu Ginobili, and Rudy Gay have already been ruled out. This opens up minutes and usage in the offense, which bodes well for the rest of the Spurs. They draw a favorable matchup against the Nets, who are ranked 26th in points allowed per game and fifth in pace of play. Despite all of the injuries, the Spurs still have an implied total of 107 points, which is nearly six points higher than their season average.

Tony Parker isn’t a terrible play on FanDuel, but doesn’t crack my top ten point-per-dollar plays. Danny Green has played well since returning from injury and saw 28 minutes the other night against the Hawks. If he plays 28-30 minutes tonight, he has a chance to hit 7x on FanDuel. He’s not a cash game option by any means, but I have a lot of interest in tournaments. With Leonard, Gay, and Ginobili out, Kyle Anderson should play 32+ minutes in a great matchup against the Nets. He is an elite play in all formats.

Even though Pau Gasol is expected to suit up tonight, I am still very high on LaMarcus Aldridge. He sees a significant usage and FP/min boost with Leonard off the floor and he has a tremendous matchup against the Nets. Davis Bertans has played well over his last five games, averaging 24 minutes and 20 fantasy points. Gasol and Bertans are both on my radar as secondary plays against a beatable Nets’ frontcourt.

Notable Injuries

Manu Ginobili (Out)
Rudy Gay (Out)
Kawhi Leonard (Out)
Pau Gasol (Questionable)

San Antonio Spurs Offense

Points Per Game: 101.4 (26 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 107.0 (10 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: 5.6 (4 of 20)

Matchup vs. Brooklyn Nets

Points Allowed Per Game: 109.3 (26 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.5 (19 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.5 (17 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.3 (5 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L5 +/- Minutes L5 +/- FP/Min True Usage EFF DVP DRPM
Tony Parker $4,200 $4,300 $8,100 17.5 -0.9 21.7 0.8 0.81 19.4% 27 27 3
Danny Green $4,100 $4,700 $9,900 21.0 1.6 26.5 -3.1 0.79 14.5% 23 19 16
Kyle Anderson $4,900 $4,900 $9,600 24.0 0.4 27.3 2.6 0.88 13.3% 3 16 3
LaMarcus Aldridge $8,700 $8,200 $15,000 38.8 1.5 33.7 -0.1 1.15 25.8% 27 28 21
Pau Gasol $6,000 $5,700 $11,000 27.6 -0.6 24.9 1.2 1.11 18.4% 27 29 14
Davis Bertans $3,700 $3,900 $7,700 10.4 9.4 12.7 11.8 0.82 16.4% N/A N/A N/A
Bryn Forbes $3,600 $3,700 $7,500 11.3 3.2 20.8 4.9 0.54 15.3% N/A N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Danny Green (GPP), LaMarcus Aldridge, Kyle Anderson

Secondary Plays – Davis Bertans, Pau Gasol


Brooklyn Nets

The Nets have slowed their pace of play down recently, which has helped them keep games closer. While winning four of their last ten games should be considered an improvement, I don’t love their matchup tonight against the Spurs. On the season, San Antonio is ranked eighth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Nets’ implied total of 100.5 points is the third lowest overall and nearly six points below their season average.

While the matchup leaves much to be desired, price dictates everything in DFS and the Nets are all blue light specials tonight. My favorite two values here are both on FanDuel. Allen Crabbe is only $4,500 despite averaging 24 fantasy points over his last five games. DeMarre Carroll is only $5,000 despite averaging 34 fantasy points over his last five games. I typically try to avoid all players against the Spurs, but given their price points, Crabbe and Carroll are viable plays in all formats. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson has some appeal on DraftKings ($6,100), especially if Pau Gasol is ruled out and they start LaMarcus Aldridge at center.

Notable Injuries

None

Brooklyn Nets Offense

Points Per Game: 106.1 (13 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 100.5 (18 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: -5.6 (20 of 20)

Matchup vs. San Antonio Spurs

Points Allowed Per Game: 97.9 (1 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.2 (2 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.1 (8 of 30)
Pace of Play: 96.7 (29 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L5 +/- Minutes L5 +/- FP/Min True Usage EFF DVP DRPM
Spencer Dinwiddie $6,100 $6,500 $13,200 29.0 2.9 28.1 4.0 1.03 22.8% 12 2 15
Allen Crabbe $4,500 $4,600 $9,000 21.2 3.1 29.0 3.0 0.73 16.5% 1 3 1
DeMarre Carroll $5,000 $5,500 $10,900 26.1 8.8 28.9 1.3 0.90 17.9% 9 7 1
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson $7,000 $6,100 $12,000 29.3 3.8 28.7 2.8 1.02 20.4% 1 1 19
Tyler Zeller $3,500 $3,300 $6,000 15.6 -4.4 17.6 -5.7 0.89 15.5% 6 6 4
Caris LeVert $5,500 $5,400 $10,400 25.4 -2.1 27.0 1.0 0.94 20.6% N/A N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Allen Crabbe (FD), DeMarre Carroll (FD)

Secondary Plays – Allen Crabbe (DK), DeMarre Carroll (DK), Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (DK)


Detroit Pistons at Toronto Raptors – 7:30 PM ET

Detroit Pistons Toronto Raptors
Article Image Vegas Total 212.5 Article Image Vegas Total 212.5
Vegas Spread 7.5 Vegas Spread -7.5
Implied Team Total 102.5 Implied Team Total 110.0
Pace Projection +/- 1.4 Pace Projection +/- -1.6
Projected Starters Ish Smith Avery Bradley Reggie Bullock Tobias Harris Andre Drummond Projected Starters Kyle Lowry DeMar DeRozan OG Anunoby Serge Ibaka Jonas Valanciunas
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 7 16 3 13 22 DvP 6 14 27 14 8
DRPM Rat. 7 23 2 10 18 DRPM Rat. 18 20 12 27 3

Detroit Pistons

The Pistons head to Toronto to take on the Raptors in a battle between two very good defensive teams. At first glance, I am a little surprised to see such a high total for the game. It could have something to do with the fact that Toronto has played at a much quicker pace recently, but they are still ranked 11th or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Pistons have an implied total of 102.5 points, which is similar to their season average.

Given how inconsistent the Pistons are, I wouldn’t be surprised to see this game turn into a blowout. I’m not trying to talk you out of playing anyone from this game, but in my opinion, there are better spots to target in this slate. With that said, there are two plays that deserve consideration here. Avery Bradley has been upgraded to probable. He draws the best matchup of the five starters and is playing his best basketball of the season, averaging 35 minutes and 28 fantasy points over his last five games. Andre Drummond is also viable in tournaments on DraftKings ($8,800). I slightly prefer Nikola Jokic at a similar price point, but we’ll get to him later.

Notable Injuries

Stanley Johnson (Questionable)
Avery Bradley (Probable)

Detroit Pistons Offense

Points Per Game: 102.4 (25 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 102.5 (15 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: 0.1 (13 of 20)

Matchup vs. Toronto Raptors

Points Allowed Per Game: 104.6 (10 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.3 (5 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.1 (11 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.9 (9 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L5 +/- Minutes L5 +/- FP/Min True Usage EFF DVP DRPM
Ish Smith $6,100 $5,800 $11,500 20.9 9.8 22.1 7.0 0.94 23.8% 4 7 7
Avery Bradley $5,400 $5,300 $10,400 23.7 4.0 31.7 3.1 0.75 21.4% 26 16 23
Reggie Bullock $4,000 $4,600 $9,500 14.3 5.8 23.5 9.0 0.61 11.7% 8 3 2
Tobias Harris $6,300 $6,600 $12,300 29.3 4.7 32.5 -2.0 0.90 21.2% 14 13 10
Andre Drummond $10,100 $8,800 $16,300 43.5 5.7 32.7 1.4 1.33 18.6% 9 22 18

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Avery Bradley, Andre Drummond (GPP)


Toronto Raptors

The Raptors are looking to avoid their third straight loss tonight, as they host the Pistons. Even though Toronto is playing at home, this is far from an ideal matchup. On the season, Detroit is ranked fifth in points allowed per game and ninth in defensive efficiency. The Raptors’ implied total of 110 points is the sixth highest of the slate, but it is two points below their season average.

I’d be lying to you if I said that I had any interest in the Raptors tonight. Kyle Lowry draws a decent matchup against Ish Smith, but there are four or five point guards that I would rather play at a slightly cheaper price point. DeMar DeRozan is overpriced for a matchup against Avery Bradley. Serge Ibaka is priced up on FanDuel and we don’t really need to target him on DraftKings since we have multi-positional eligibility. If I had to play someone from the Raptors, it would be Jonas Valanciunas. In his last four meetings with Andre Drummond, Valanciunas has averaged 30 minutes and 30 fantasy points per contest.

Notable Injuries

Fred VanVleet (Questionable)

Toronto Raptors Offense

Points Per Game: 112.3 (3 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 110.0 (6 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: -2.3 (18 of 20)

Matchup vs. Detroit Pistons

Points Allowed Per Game: 101.9 (5 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.5 (9 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.7 (20 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.9 (21 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L5 +/- Minutes L5 +/- FP/Min True Usage EFF DVP DRPM
Kyle Lowry $8,000 $7,500 $14,200 35.4 0.6 32.9 4.7 1.08 21.5% 20 6 18
DeMar DeRozan $9,100 $8,600 $15,800 40.1 0.7 34.6 1.4 1.16 28.9% 3 14 20
OG Anunoby $4,000 $3,400 $6,600 12.8 -0.7 21.6 1.1 0.59 10.6% 22 27 12
Serge Ibaka $6,300 $5,600 $11,100 26.6 0.5 28.1 -1.5 0.95 17.6% 16 14 27
Jonas Valanciunas $5,500 $5,200 $10,600 23.2 2.9 20.8 0.4 1.12 17.8% 14 8 3
Delon Wright $4,900 $4,900 $9,700 20.3 2.1 21.4 2.6 0.95 17.3% N/A N/A N/A
Jakob Poeltl $4,200 $3,800 $7,400 17.0 -0.7 17.5 0.3 0.97 12.8% N/A N/A N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Jonas Valanciunas (GPP)


New Orleans Pelicans at Atlanta Hawks – 7:30 PM ET

New Orleans Pelicans Atlanta Hawks
Article Image Vegas Total 222.0 Article Image Vegas Total 222.0
Vegas Spread -2.5 Vegas Spread 2.5
Implied Team Total 112.3 Implied Team Total 109.8
Pace Projection +/- 0.2 Pace Projection +/- 2.3
Projected Starters Rajon Rondo Jrue Holiday E’Twaun Moore Anthony Davis DeMarcus Cousins Projected Starters Dennis Schroder Kent Bazemore Taurean Prince Ersan Ilyasova Miles Plumlee
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 19 25 30 18 28 DvP 18 27 26 29 11
DRPM Rat. 30 2 19 22 9 DRPM Rat. 23 5 29 1 7

New Orleans Pelicans

The Pelicans are playing in the second half of back-to-back road games after beating the Celtics in overtime last night. While they could be playing on tired legs, their matchup against the Hawks more than makes up for it. On the season, Atlanta is ranked 22nd or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. We know that the Pelicans like to get into shootouts and this game really sets up well for fantasy production. New Orleans has an implied total of 112.3 points, which is the third highest of the slate.

Rajon Rondo didn’t quite have the massive game that I was hoping for last night, but he played well. The issue with Rondo is always his minutes. He is just as likely to play 20 as he is to play 30, which makes him a tough player to trust in DFS, especially in big slates like tonight’s. Jrue Holiday is basically playing 40 minutes a night right now. He is only $6,700 on DraftKings and draws a nice matchup against the Hawks, who are ranked 25th in fantasy points allowed to shooting guards this season. E’Twaun Moore is also worth a look if you are stuck and in need of value at small forward.

Anthony Davis has broken out over his last three games, scoring 54, 85, and 75 fantasy points. Call me crazy, but a matchup against Ersan Ilyasova is not going to scare me away from Davis. Sure, he has the potential to hurt his pinky toe and miss half the game, but that’s a risk that we have to be willing to take. Of the two, I slightly prefer DeMarcus Cousins, as he could have lower ownership. He has similar upside against a Hawks’ defense that is ranked 25th in efficiency against centers and 26th in rebounding differential.

Notable Injuries

None

New Orleans Pelicans Offense

Points Per Game: 111.2 (4 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 112.3 (3 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: 1.1 (12 of 20)

Matchup vs. Atlanta Hawks

Points Allowed Per Game: 108.1 (22 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.0 (26 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.8 (26 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.7 (12 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L5 +/- Minutes L5 +/- FP/Min True Usage EFF DVP DRPM
Rajon Rondo $5,700 $5,200 $10,200 24.5 0.0 25.2 2.4 0.97 16.8% 21 19 30
Jrue Holiday $7,800 $6,700 $12,800 35.0 9.8 36.9 3.9 0.95 20.2% 15 25 2
E’Twaun Moore $5,300 $4,500 $8,600 21.5 1.8 32.5 2.8 0.66 14.3% 30 30 19
Anthony Davis $11,700 $10,500 $20,100 51.0 14.5 36.0 4.5 1.42 24.5% 7 18 22
DeMarcus Cousins $11,900 $10,800 $19,700 52.9 -0.5 36.1 4.7 1.47 26.8% 25 28 9
Ian Clark $3,600 $3,200 $6,200 10.0 5.2 15.9 6.6 0.63 14.5% N/A N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Jrue Holiday (DK), Anthony Davis, DeMarcus Cousins

Secondary Plays – Jrue Holiday (FD), Rajon Rondo (GPP), E’Twaun Moore


Atlanta Hawks

If you aren’t a fan of the Hawks tonight, let me try to persuade you. They are facing a Pelicans’ team that is playing their second road games in as many nights. This Pelicans’ team is also one of the worst defensively in the entire NBA, ranking 20th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. I know the Hawks’ rotation is frustrating at times, but we should give their entire offense a boost in this matchup. Atlanta has an implied total of 109.8 points, which is six points above their season average.

I mentioned earlier that there were four or five point guards in the mid to upper pricing range that I had my eye on. Dennis Schroder is certainly one of them. He draws a nice matchup against Rajon Rondo, he has an elite true usage rate (29%), and he comes into the game in nice form. Kent Bazemore may not have the minute upside that we are often looking for, but he averages a fantasy point per minute and draws one of the best possible matchups for a shooting guard. I don’t do this often, but I like Bazemore so much that I would consider him an elite play in all formats.

I expect Schroder and Bazemore to garner some ownership tonight, but Taurean Prince is a nice way to get exposure to this game at low ownership. His price is all the way down to $4,900 on DraftKings and wings have had success against the Pelicans all season. I will continue to avoid the Hawks’ frontcourt. While Ersan Ilyasova and Dewayne Dedmon grade out as nice value plays in my NBA model, there are too many bodies splitting minutes right now in Atlanta.

Notable Injuries

Dewayne Dedmon (Probable)
Marco Belinelli (Probable)
Taurean Prince (Probable)

Atlanta Hawks Offense

Points Per Game: 103.9 (21 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 109.8 (7 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: 5.8 (3 of 20)

Matchup vs. New Orleans Pelicans

Points Allowed Per Game: 111.1 (29 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.3 (23 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.7 (20 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.8 (6 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L5 +/- Minutes L5 +/- FP/Min True Usage EFF DVP DRPM
Dennis Schroder $7,800 $7,500 $14,000 35.0 4.3 32.0 -0.6 1.09 29.5% 19 18 23
Kent Bazemore $5,700 $5,500 $11,300 28.5 1.3 28.5 0.7 1.00 19.3% 29 27 5
Taurean Prince $5,700 $4,900 $9,900 25.6 -6.2 30.9 -1.2 0.83 16.8% 16 26 29
Ersan Ilyasova $5,200 $5,200 $9,800 23.1 0.7 25.9 2.7 0.89 16.7% 24 29 1
Miles Plumlee $3,500 $3,500 $6,900 12.1 -0.3 18.4 -0.3 0.65 9.9% 23 11 7
John Collins $5,000 $4,700 $9,200 24.6 -5.2 22.0 -5.5 1.12 16.8% N/A N/A N/A
Marco Belinelli $3,500 $3,600 $7,000 18.9 -7.2 23.3 -4.9 0.81 20.2% N/A N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Dennis Schroder, Kent Bazemore

Secondary Plays – Taurean Prince (DK GPP)


Los Angeles Lakers at Oklahoma City Thunder – 8:00 PM ET

Los Angeles Lakers Oklahoma City Thunder
Article Image Vegas Total 216.5 Article Image Vegas Total 216.5
Vegas Spread 9.5 Vegas Spread -9.5
Implied Team Total 103.5 Implied Team Total 113.0
Pace Projection +/- -1.7 Pace Projection +/- 4.3
Projected Starters Tyler Ennis Josh Hart Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Julius Randle Brook Lopez Projected Starters Russell Westbrook Terrance Ferguson Paul George Carmelo Anthony Steven Adams
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 3 11 5 4 15 DvP 22 24 28 25 21
DRPM Rat. 3 20 6 24 26 DRPM Rat. 12 14 6 16 15

Los Angeles Lakers

The Lakers have lost six of their last ten games and draw one of the worst matchups on the schedule. The Thunder are currently ranked fourth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. To make matters worse, the Lakers are double-digit underdogs on the road. With an implied total of only 103.5 points, there isn’t a lot to love on this side of the ball. The one and only Lakers’ player on my radar tonight is Tyler Ennis, who will likely draw the start for the injured Lonzo Ball. He is close to min-salary across the industry and has averaged 24 fantasy points per game in four spot starts this season.

Notable Injuries

Lonzo Ball (Out)
Larry Nance (Probable)

Los Angeles Lakers Offense

Points Per Game: 106.7 (11 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 103.5 (13 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: -3.2 (19 of 20)

Matchup vs. Oklahoma City Thunder

Points Allowed Per Game: 101.0 (3 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.6 (3 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.0 (4 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.8 (22 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L5 +/- Minutes L5 +/- FP/Min True Usage EFF DVP DRPM
Tyler Ennis $3,500 $3,700 $7,200 8.8 -0.3 10.5 2.9 0.84 17.8% 8 3 3
Josh Hart $3,500 $4,100 $7,800 12.9 1.8 18.7 0.7 0.69 11.5% 8 11 20
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope $5,600 $5,600 $11,900 27.3 2.2 33.9 -1.5 0.81 16.2% 5 5 6
Julius Randle $6,500 $6,100 $11,500 26.0 3.2 23.0 2.2 1.13 20.6% 15 4 24
Brook Lopez $4,100 $4,400 $8,900 23.4 -5.1 21.7 -2.4 1.08 21.8% 3 15 26
Jordan Clarkson $3,900 $4,800 $9,400 21.8 -4.7 22.7 -2.8 0.96 25.5% N/A N/A N/A
Kyle Kuzma $5,900 $5,900 $12,100 28.4 2.5 31.4 -2.9 0.91 20.0% N/A N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Tyler Ennis (FD – if starting)

Secondary Plays – Tyler Ennis (DK – if starting)


Oklahoma City Thunder

The Thunder are looking for their third win in a row tonight and something tells me that they won’t have much difficulty. The Lakers have not played well on the road this season and come into the game as double-digit underdogs. Los Angeles plays at the fastest pace of any team in basketball, which is great news for the Thunder. Oklahoma City has an implied total of 113 points, which is the second highest overall and nine points above their season average.

When we have a potential blowout on our hands, I always like to ask myself if the risk is worth the reward. With such a high implied total, the answer for me is yes. If the Lakers can keep this game competitive, we could see a number of Thunder players reach and exceed value. We’ll start with Russell Westbrook, who is averaging 56 fantasy points over his last five games. He’s not a must play for me given all of the great options at shooting guard, but this is not a night where I will be pulling a full Westbrook fade.

Paul George has been quiet over the last month of play, but his price on DraftKings is all the way down to $7,500. I would much rather play George than Carmelo Anthony, who doesn’t offer much when it comes to peripheral statistics. Steven Adams is expensive, but he has a very high floor. It would take a blowout or foul trouble for there to be a scenario where he didn’t rack up at least 30 fantasy points.

Notable Injuries

Andre Roberson (Doubtful)

Oklahoma City Thunder Offense

Points Per Game: 104.1 (19 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 113.0 (2 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: 8.9 (2 of 20)

Matchup vs. Los Angeles Lakers

Points Allowed Per Game: 110.5 (27 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.7 (12 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.3 (10 of 30)
Pace of Play: 103.8 (1 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L5 +/- Minutes L5 +/- FP/Min True Usage EFF DVP DRPM
Russell Westbrook $12,000 $11,600 $21,300 53.6 2.0 36.0 -1.2 1.49 34.9% 17 22 12
Terrance Ferguson $3,500 $3,200 $6,100 4.9 2.8 11.3 10.3 0.44 10.4% 20 24 14
Paul George $8,300 $7,500 $13,600 37.8 -5.7 36.6 -1.4 1.03 22.7% 18 28 6
Carmelo Anthony $6,400 $6,200 $12,200 29.2 -2.9 32.8 -0.4 0.89 22.2% 29 25 16
Steven Adams $6,900 $6,500 $12,200 30.6 1.1 32.1 0.1 0.95 14.2% 16 21 15

Elite Plays – Russell Westbrook, Paul George (DK), Steven Adams (Cash)

Secondary Plays – Paul George (FD), Steven Adams (GPP), Carmelo Anthony


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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on Twitter – @RG_Notorious