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NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, November 18th - Page Two

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2015-11-19 04:49:15

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Portland at Houston – 8:00 PM

Portland Houston
portlandnba Vegas Total 209.0 houstonnba Vegas Total 209.0
Vegas Sprd 7.0 Vegas Sprd -7.0
Team Proj. 101.0 Team Proj. 108.0
Team Pace 97.70 Team Pace 101.20
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Damian Lillard C.J. McCollum Al-Farouq Aminu Mason Plumlee Chris Kaman Proj. Starter Ty Lawson James Harden Trevor Ariza Terrence Jones Dwight Howard
Opp. Season 24 22 28 30 20 Opp. Season 27 18 6 15 28
Opp. Last 7 25 29 19 27 19 Opp. Last 7 10 13 30 18 25

Portland

The Blazers have lost six games in a row, after starting the season with a 4-2 record. Tonight they head to Houston to take on the Rockets in what is expected to be one of the fastest-paced games of the night.

The Rockets made up for their fast pace of play with excellent defensive efficiency last season. This year, the pace has remained the same, but their defensive efficiency has taken a bit hit. They are ranked 24th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game this season. The Blazers have an implied team total of 101 points tonight, which is higher than the average of the 20 teams in play tonight.

I’m a little worried about a potential blowout here. The Rockets have not been playing up to their standards and it’s only a matter of time before they have that statement game. Meanwhile, the Blazers’ confidence has to be at a season-low, after losing six games in a row. With that said, Damian Lillard, C.J. McCollum, and Al-Farouq Aminu are all strong plays tonight. All three should get open looks in a game that is largely played in transition. If the Blazers can keep this game close, all three have a chance to pay off their respective salaries.

Elite Plays

Damian Lillard

FD: $9,200 — DK: $8,800
Min/Game: 37.3 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 27.2
FP/Game: 40.1 — FP/Min.: 1.08

C.J. McCollum

FD: $6,400 — DK: $6,500
Min/Game: 34.9 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 23.0
FP/Game: 28.7 — FP/Min.: 0.82

Secondary Plays

Al-Farouq Aminu

FD: $5,600 — DK: $6,000
Min/Game: 32.6 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 15.6
FP/Game: 24.9 — FP/Min.: 0.76

Houston

The Rockets called a players-only meeting the other day, after losing their fourth game in a row. They are now 4-7 to start the season and if they aren’t careful, they could put themselves too far behind in the tough Western Conference. Houston has a good chance to get back on track tonight against another struggling team in the Blazers.

The Rockets draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Blazers, who are ranked at or below the league average in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game this season. The Rockets have an implied team total of 108 points tonight, which is the second highest team total on the board.

When it comes to the Rockets, there are basically three main fantasy options: James Harden, Dwight Howard, and Terrence Jones. All three are in play tonight against the Blazers, who have really only defended small forwards well this season (which shouldn’t come as a surprise, since Al-Farouq Aminu is an excellent defender). Harden is an elite play across the industry, while Howard and Jones are more price-sensitive.

Elite Plays

James Harden

FD: $9,900 — DK: $10,100
Min/Game: 38.5 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 27.7
FP/Game: 43.3 — FP/Min.: 1.12

Secondary Plays

Dwight Howard

Elite play on DraftKings.
FD: $8,000 — DK: $7,500
Min/Game: 30.2 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 16.2
FP/Game: 34.4 — FP/Min.: 1.14

Terrence Jones

Elite play on FanDuel.
FD: $5,900 — DK: $6,200
Min/Game: 25.5 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 19.0
FP/Game: 25.2 — FP/Min.: 0.99

New Orleans at Oklahoma City – 8:00 PM

New Orleans Oklahoma City
neworleansnba Vegas Total 213.5 oklahomacitynba Vegas Total 213.5
Vegas Sprd 11.0 Vegas Sprd -11.0
Team Proj. 101.3 Team Proj. 112.3
Team Pace 100.20 Team Pace 101.70
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Ishmael Smith Eric Gordon Alonzo Gee Anthony Davis Omer Asik Proj. Starter Russell Westbrook Andre Roberson Anthony Morrow Serge Ibaka Steven Adams
Opp. Season 13 29 14 18 4 Opp. Season 30 17 20 20 29
Opp. Last 7 30 11 16 13 3 Opp. Last 7 18 8 28 17 27

New Orleans

The Pelicans lost yet again last night. Speaking of, what on Earth are we going to do with Anthony Davis? He has been extremely injury-prone over the last two seasons. Basically, if you had Davis last night (which I did), you were on the outside looking in, even in cash games. Davis is listed as questionable tonight against the Thunder.

The Thunder have been mediocre in terms of defensive efficiency, but given their fast pace of play, they have not fared well in terms of points allowed per game. The Pelicans are large underdogs here, but they have an implied team total of 101.3 points.

It’s hard to break down the fantasy options here without knowing the status of Anthony Davis. If he is somehow able to play tonight, he should only be targeted in tournaments. This could be one of the only nights during the NBA season where you can take Davis at an ownership rate of close to 10%. The more likely scenario is that Davis sits out tonight’s game. With Jrue Holiday also out (resting in the back-to-back), Ish Smith, Eric Gordon, and Ryan Anderson would all become elite fantasy options.

Elite Plays

Assuming Anthony Davis is out.

Eric Gordon

FD: $6,000 — DK: $6,400
Min/Game: 36.0 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 20.5
FP/Game: 27.7 — FP/Min.: 0.77

Ryan Anderson

FD: $5,900 — DK: $5,900
Min/Game: 31.4 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 19.4
FP/Game: 26.9 — FP/Min.: 0.86

Ishmael Smith

FD: $5,400 — DK: $5,500
Min/Game: 28.1 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 18.4
FP/Game: 26.1 — FP/Min.: 0.93

Secondary Plays

NONE

Oklahoma City

Kevin Durant is close to returning to the lineup, but is “extremely unlikely” to play tonight against the Pelicans. That gives us at least one more opportunity to target Russell Westbrook as the primary option offensively. Even though Durant is likely out, the Thunder are still 11-point favorites tonight against the visiting Pelicans.

The Pelicans have been the worst defense in the entire NBA this season. They are ranked dead last in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. They have also allowed the fourth most fantasy points of any team this season. The Thunder have an implied team total of 112.3 points tonight, which is easily the highest total on the board tonight.

As long as Kevin Durant is out, there is no reason not to have Russell Westbrook in your lineup tonight. He is coming off of an incredible game against the Grizzlies where he had 40 points, 4 rebounds, 14 assists, and 3 steals. Tonight, he faces the worst defense in the NBA. The matchup is so good that I’m expecting him to post a triple-double. Serge Ibaka and Dion Waiters are also in play here, but there are better plays at each of their respective positions.

Elite Plays

Russell Westbrook

FD: $11,500 — DK: $12,200
Min/Game: 34.9 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 30.4
FP/Game: 51.9 — FP/Min.: 1.49

Secondary Plays

Serge Ibaka

FD: $7,200 — DK: $6,900
Min/Game: 33.6 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 16.0
FP/Game: 30.8 — FP/Min.: 0.92

Dion Waiters

FD: $4,700 — DK: $4,600
Min/Game: 27.4 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 15.0
FP/Game: 18.3 — FP/Min.: 0.67

Denver at San Antonio – 8:30 PM

Denver San Antonio
denvernba Vegas Total 196.0 sanantonionba Vegas Total 196.0
Vegas Sprd 13.5 Vegas Sprd -13.5
Team Proj. 91.3 Team Proj. 104.8
Team Pace 99.40 Team Pace 97.50
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Emmanuel Mudiay Gary Harris Danilo Gallinari Kenneth Faried J.J. Hickson Proj. Starter Tony Parker Danny Green Kawhi Leonard LaMarcus Aldridge Tim Duncan
Opp. Season 28 1 2 1 2 Opp. Season 19 30 3 17 18
Opp. Last 7 22 1 1 2 6 Opp. Last 7 5 30 5 20 8

Denver

The Nuggets picked up a nice win last night in New Orleans, but they will likely have a much different result tonight. Not only are they playing in the second half of a back-to-back, but they also have to face the Spurs in San Antonio. There is a reason why the Nuggets are 13.5-point underdogs tonight.

The Spurs are the worst matchup in daily fantasy basketball. On the season, they are ranked first or second in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. In what will likely turn into a blowout, I will be avoiding all Nuggets’ players tonight in both cash games and tournaments. With ten games on the schedule tonight, there is no reason to take unnecessary risks.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

NONE

San Antonio

The Spurs are looking for their sixth win in a row tonight. Vegas isn’t expecting it to be too much of a problem, as the Spurs are the largest favorites on the board. We all know what it feels like to get “Popped,” and for fantasy purposes, it may be best to just pretend this game isn’t even on the schedule.

The Nuggets have not been great defensively this season. They are ranked below the league average in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. Despite the great matchup, the potential for a blowout makes the Spurs too risky. Kawhi Leonard could be worth a look in tournaments, but I’ll likely be fading this game altogether.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Kawhi Leonard

FD: $8,500 — DK: $8,200
Min/Game: 33.1 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 22.9
FP/Game: 38.1 — FP/Min.: 1.15

Toronto at Utah – 9:00 PM

Toronto Utah
torontonba Vegas Total 189.0 utahnba Vegas Total 189.0
Vegas Sprd 4.5 Vegas Sprd -4.5
Team Proj. 92.3 Team Proj. 96.8
Team Pace 98.80 Team Pace 95.40
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Kyle Lowry DeMar DeRozan DeMarre Carroll Luis Scola Jonas Valanciunas Proj. Starter Raul Neto Rodney Hood Gordon Hayward Derrick Favors Rudy Gobert
Opp. Season 3 4 13 3 5 Opp. Season 6 20 11 6 24
Opp. Last 7 4 18 15 22 29 Opp. Last 7 21 19 4 3 24

Toronto

The Raptors faced one of the fastest-paced teams in the NBA last night in the Warriors. Tonight, they face one of the slowest-paced teams in the Jazz. Their two opponents do have one thing in common though – an excellent defense.

The Jazz are a lot like the Spurs in that I rarely like to target players against them in daily fantasy. On the season, the Jazz are ranked sixth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Raptors are only projected to score 92.3 points tonight, which is the second lowest implied team total on the board. The 92.3 point projection is 10.5 points lower than their average points scored on the season. With such a bad matchup, I will be avoided all Raptors’ players tonight.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

NONE

Utah

The Jazz are 5-5 on the season. They have played well, even in their losses. They will look to get above .500 tonight, as they host the visiting Raptors. The Jazz are 4.5-point favorites tonight at home.

This game is expected to be low scoring. We’ve already touched on how good the Jazz are defensively, but the Raptors aren’t far behind. They are ranked 13th or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game this season. The Jazz have an implied team total of 96.8 points, which is actually slightly higher than their average points scored this season.

The Jazz are a tough team to target for fantasy purposes. They are the slowest-paced team in the NBA and they have a lot of young talent. It basically boils down to the fact that there aren’t enough possessions per game for there to be enough fantasy production to go around. Derrick Favors, Rudy Gobert, and Alec Burks are secondary options, but they do not stand out as must plays at their respective positions.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Derrick Favors

FD: $8,300 — DK: $7,600
Min/Game: 30.1 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 20.8
FP/Game: 35.1 — FP/Min.: 1.17

Rudy Gobert

FD: $7,700 — DK: $6,700
Min/Game: 34.0 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 11.0
FP/Game: 32.2 — FP/Min.: 0.95

Alec Burks

FD: $5,500 — DK: $5,400
Min/Game: 28.1 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 22.5
FP/Game: 24.3 — FP/Min.: 0.86

Chicago at Phoenix – 10:30 PM

Chicago Phoenix
chicagonba Vegas Total 201.0 phoenixnba Vegas Total 201.0
Vegas Sprd 2.5 Vegas Sprd -2.5
Team Proj. 99.3 Team Proj. 101.8
Team Pace 100.60 Team Pace 103.10
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Aaron Brooks Jimmy Butler Tony Snell Nikola Mirotic Pau Gasol Proj. Starter Eric Bledsoe Brandon Knight P.J. Tucker Jon Leuer Tyson Chandler
Opp. Season 15 16 27 2 8 Opp. Season 21 11 25 4 25
Opp. Last 7 3 21 20 1 12 Opp. Last 7 29 25 23 4 5

Chicago

The Bulls have won three games in a row and now sit in second place in the Eastern Conference standings. Tonight, the Bulls travel to Phoenix to take on the Suns in what should be a fast-paced game. Both of these teams average over 100 possessions per game this season.

Even though the Suns play at a very fast pace, they are ranked at or above the league average in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game this season. The Bulls have an implied team total of 99.3 points, which is slightly lower than their average points scored on the season.

Derrick Rose is being listed as doubtful for tonight’s game. If he sits out as expected, Aaron Brooks would draw the start at point guard. He is a high-scoring guard that can rack up fantasy points in a hurry. While it’s a nice spot for Brooks, I still have him ranked behind Dennis Schroder and Ish Smith in terms of best value point guards. Jimmy Butler would also see a nice boost, as he would be asked to carry more of the load offensively.

Elite Plays

Assuming Derrick Rose is out.

Jimmy Butler

FD: $7,800 — DK: $7,800
Min/Game: 35.7 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 20.0
FP/Game: 34.0 — FP/Min.: 0.95

Secondary Plays

Pau Gasol

FD: $7,900 — DK: $7,500
Min/Game: 29.7 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 19.7
FP/Game: 33.0 — FP/Min.: 1.11

Aaron Brooks

FD: $4,000 — DK: $3,600
Min/Game: 15.1 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 22.9
FP/Game: 14.8 — FP/Min.: 0.98

Phoenix

The Suns are hoping to have Markieff Morris back in the lineup tonight. He is listed as probable, which means Jon Leuer is likely headed back to the bench. The Suns are listed as 2.5-point favorites tonight, as they host the visiting Bulls.

The Bulls have improved defensively in over the last couple of weeks, but they are still ranked 22nd in fantasy points allowed this season. The Suns have an implied team total of 101.8 points, which is four points lower than their average points scored this season.

Eric Bledsoe and Brandon Knight are both in play tonight, although I wish we knew which guard is going to be defended by Jimmy Butler. Whichever one draws the matchup against Aaron Brooks is going to have a huge advantage, while the guard that draws the matchup against Butler is going to have a tough time offensively. If I had to guess, I would say that Butler will likely be on Knight, as Brooks would be at a significant height advantage.

Elite Plays

Eric Bledsoe

FD: $8,400 — DK: $8,600
Min/Game: 33.4 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 24.6
FP/Game: 38.4 — FP/Min.: 1.15

Secondary Plays

Brandon Knight

FD: $7,600 — DK: $7,500
Min/Game: 34.4 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 22.4
FP/Game: 33.9 — FP/Min.: 0.99

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious