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NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, November 18th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2015-11-19 20:37:43

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

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Minnesota at Orlando – 7:00 PM

Minnesota Orlando
minnesotanba Vegas Total 196.5 orlandonba Vegas Total 196.5
Vegas Sprd 3.0 Vegas Sprd -3.0
Team Proj. 96.8 Team Proj. 99.8
Team Pace 100.50 Team Pace 99.50
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Ricky Rubio Andrew Wiggins Tayshaun Prince Kevin Garnett Karl-Anthony Towns Proj. Starter Elfrid Payton Victor Oladipo Evan Fournier Channing Frye Nikola Vucevic
Opp. Season 29 5 16 14 14 Opp. Season 10 15 12 19 9
Opp. Last 7 17 4 21 25 15 Opp. Last 7 20 17 17 21 22

Minnesota

The Wolves are playing in the second half of a back-to-back tonight, after a nice comeback win over the Heat on Tuesday. The Wolves draw a much better matchup tonight against the Magic, who aren’t known as an elite defensive team like the Heat. This game is expected to stay close throughout, as the Wolves are 3.5-point underdogs.

The Magic have a middling defense, ranking between 12th and 17th in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential this season. The Wolves may have a low implied team total at 96.8 points, but this is a better matchup than the total would suggest. The Magic have actually allowed the eighth-most fantasy points this season.

With this being the second half of a back-to-back, it wouldn’t be surprising if the Wolves decided to give Kevin Garnett the night off. If that’s the case, Adreian Payne and Nemanja Bjelica would both see a nice fantasy boost. Ricky Rubio and Zach LaVine both cut into each other’s fantasy production when healthy. They can both be avoided tonight against the Magic. The only play that really stands out here is Karl-Anthony Towns. While he has been extremely productive this season (1.13 fantasy points per minute), he has only played more than 30 minutes once in the last five games.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Karl-Anthony Towns

FD: $6,800 — DK: $7,300
Min/Game: 28.9 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 19.6
FP/Game: 32.6 — FP/Min.: 1.13

Nemanja Bjelica

Give him a slight bump if Kevin Garnett is out.
FD: $4,400 — DK: $4,700
Min/Game: 27.2 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 10.8
FP/Game: 19.5 — FP/Min.: 0.72

Orlando

The Magic have played well at times this season and currently sit at 5-6 in the standings. They have a nice opportunity to get back to .500 tonight, as they host the visiting Wolves. Evan Fournier missed practice on Monday with a fever, but he is listed as probable for tonight’s game. Victor Oladipo could return to the lineup. He is questionable, after suffering a concussion last week.

The Wolves have improved their play on the defensive end of the floor this season, but they are right in the middle of the pack. On the season, they are ranked 22nd in points allowed per game, 17th in defensive efficiency, and 12th in fantasy points allowed per game. The Magic have an implied team total 99.8 points, which is just under their average points scored on the season.

The fantasy options here depend on the availability of Victor Oladipo. If Oladipo is out, Elfrid Payton and Evan Fournier would both see a nice boost. If Oladipo plays, I would bump all three down to secondary options. Looking at the matchup chart above, the Wolves have been mediocre against all five positions this season. Nikola Vucevic has a high turnover-adjusted usage rate of 20.5, but with so many options at center, he’s a secondary option tonight.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Nikola Vucevic

FD: $7,800 — DK: $7,400
Min/Game: 31.2 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 20.5
FP/Game: 33.6 — FP/Min.: 1.08

Elfrid Payton

Bump him up to an elite play on DraftKings if Victor Oladipo is out.
FD: $6,500 — DK: $5,700
Min/Game: 31.0 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 17.1
FP/Game: 24.3 — FP/Min.: 0.78

Evan Fournier

Bump him up to an elite play on FanDuel if Victor Oladipo is out.
FD: $5,700 — DK: $6,500
Min/Game: 38.0 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 18.6
FP/Game: 29.0 — FP/Min.: 0.76

Indiana at Philadelphia – 7:00 PM

Indiana Philadelphia
indiananba Vegas Total 192.0 philadelphianba Vegas Total 192.0
Vegas Sprd -7.0 Vegas Sprd 7.0
Team Proj. 99.5 Team Proj. 92.5
Team Pace 97.90 Team Pace 99.30
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Monta Ellis Chase Budinger C.J. Miles Paul George Ian Mahinmi Proj. Starter T.J. McConnell Nik Stauskas Jerami Grant Nerlens Noel Jahlil Okafor
Opp. Season 23 2 30 28 22 Opp. Season 4 23 10 11 19
Opp. Last 7 16 7 24 28 18 Opp. Last 7 13 23 14 10 13

Indiana

The Pacers are 6-5 to start the season. They are hoping to avoid being the first team to lose to the Sixers this season. Vegas is giving Philadelphia a fighting chance, though, as the Pacers are only favored by seven points. Rodney Stuckey and George Hill have both been ruled out of tonight’s game, which means Monta Ellis will slide over and start at point guard.

The Sixers provide us with one of the most exploitable matchups in daily fantasy basketball. On the season, they are ranked 23rd or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Pacers have an implied team total of 99.5 points, which is three points higher than their average points scored this season.

With George Hill and Rodney Stuckey out, Monta Ellis immediately becomes one of the best plays (dollar for dollar) on the board tonight. He played well without Hill and Stuckey in the lineup the other night, posting a stat line of 20 points, four rebounds, and six assists. The injuries also give a boost to C.J. Miles and Paul George. Miles should see a bump in minutes, while George could see a potential increase in usage.

Elite Plays

Paul George

FD: $9,200 — DK: $9,500
Min/Game: 36.4 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 25.8
FP/Game: 41.1 — FP/Min.: 1.13

Monta Ellis

FD: $6,700 — DK: $6,000
Min/Game: 33.8 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 19.4
FP/Game: 26.3 — FP/Min.: 0.78

Secondary Plays

Ian Mahinmi

FD: $4,700 — DK: $4,200
Min/Game: 24.1 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 12.7
FP/Game: 20.4 — FP/Min.: 0.85

C.J. Miles

FD: $4,600 — DK: $4,300
Min/Game: 27.0 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 17.4
FP/Game: 18.7 — FP/Min.: 0.69

Philadelphia

The Sixers have come close this season, but they are still searching for their first win. They have to feel fairly confident tonight, as they are only seven-point underdogs against the Pacers.

The Pacers have been stout defensively this season, ranking seventh or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Sixers have a low implied team total of 92.5 points, which is the third lowest on the schedule tonight. Nerlens Noel, Jahlil Okafor, and T.J. McConnell are viable tournament options, but with a full slate of games on tap tonight, I will be avoiding all Sixers in cash games.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Nerlens Noel

FD: $7,200 — DK: $6,900
Min/Game: 32.9 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 16.9
FP/Game: 28.0 — FP/Min.: 0.85

Jahlil Okafor

FD: $6,700 — DK: $7,200
Min/Game: 33.7 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 23.2
FP/Game: 31.6 — FP/Min.: 0.94

T.J. McConnell

FD: $5,100 — DK: $5,400
Min/Game: 29.6 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 11.5
FP/Game: 23.8 — FP/Min.: 0.80

Brooklyn at Charlotte – 7:00 PM

Brooklyn Charlotte
brooklynnba Vegas Total 195.5 charlottenba Vegas Total 195.5
Vegas Sprd 7.0 Vegas Sprd -7.0
Team Proj. 94.3 Team Proj. 101.3
Team Pace 97.10 Team Pace 97.50
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Jarrett Jack Joe Johnson Rondae Hollis-Jefferson Thaddeus Young Brook Lopez Proj. Starter Kemba Walker Nicolas Batum Marvin Williams Cody Zeller Al Jefferson
Opp. Season 5 13 17 29 17 Opp. Season 20 24 19 9 23
Opp. Last 7 7 12 25 30 20 Opp. Last 7 19 26 10 12 30

Brooklyn

The Nets picked up an impressive win over the Hawks last night in Indiana. They will try to win back-to-back games for the first time this season, as they head to Charlotte to take on the Hornets. For fantasy purposes, this may be one of the worst games to target tonight. Both of these teams play at a slow pace and the total for the game is set at only 195.5 points.

The Hornets have been mediocre defensively this season, ranking between 12th and 18th in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Nets have an implied team total of 94.3 points, which is actually the exact number of points that they are averaging this season.

Is it just me or does Brook Lopez (and his brother, Robin) look like he is playing in slow motion? Whenever they give the ball to him in the post, I have to look to see if something is wrong with my television. While he’s not the most exciting player in the NBA, he has been getting the job done. Over his last seven games, he has averaged 20 points, nine rebounds, and three blocks per game. Lopez also has one of the highest turnover-adjusted usage rates of any center in the NBA. While I don’t love the Nets as a whole, Lopez is a strong play at center.

Elite Plays

Brook Lopez

FD: $8,000 — DK: $7,200
Min/Game: 34.5 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 22.2
FP/Game: 35.4 — FP/Min.: 1.03

Secondary Plays

Jarrett Jack

FD: $6,400 — DK: $5,900
Min/Game: 33.0 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 21.3
FP/Game: 30.2 — FP/Min.: 0.92

Charlotte

The Hornets just can’t seem to hit their stride this season. They have been playing better of late, but they are still only 5-6 on the season. They will look to claw their way back to .500 tonight with a win over the Nets at home. P.J. Hairston will likely sit out another game tonight, which means Marvin Williams may draw another start at small forward, with Cody Zeller starting at the four.

The Nets have not been great defensively this season. They are ranked below the league average in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Hornets actually have a decent team total tonight of 101.3 points. Defense may be limited in this game, as both teams are playing in the second half of a back-to-back.

Kemba Walker is coming off of his best game of the season, but until he shows a little more consistency, I will be avoiding him in cash games. He is a tournament play at best tonight against Brooklyn. Nicolas Batum let a lot of people down last night, but we have to have a short memory in daily fantasy. He is in a good spot to bounce back tonight at home. Marvin Williams and Jeremy Lamb are also in play here. Both players would see a small boost if P.J. Hairston is out again tonight.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Nicolas Batum

FD: $7,200 — DK: $7,000
Min/Game: 34.3 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 18.1
FP/Game: 29.7 — FP/Min.: 0.87

Marvin Williams

FD: $5,200 — DK: $5,500
Min/Game: 32.2 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 11.7
FP/Game: 23.6 — FP/Min.: 0.73

Jeremy Lamb

FD: $4,600 — DK: $4,500
Min/Game: 23.5 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 18.7
FP/Game: 22.2 — FP/Min.: 0.94

Dallas at Boston – 7:30 PM

Dallas Boston
dallasnba Vegas Total 204.5 bostonnba Vegas Total 204.5
Vegas Sprd 4.5 Vegas Sprd -4.5
Team Proj. 100.0 Team Proj. 104.5
Team Pace 100.60 Team Pace 102.10
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Deron Williams Wesley Matthews Chandler Parsons Dirk Nowitzki Zaza Pachulia Proj. Starter Isaiah Thomas Marcus Smart Jae Crowder Amir Johnson Jared Sullinger
Opp. Season 1 21 23 12 16 Opp. Season 18 7 1 27 12
Opp. Last 7 1 6 27 8 17 Opp. Last 7 14 5 9 15 16

Dallas

The Mavericks are rolling right now. They have won each of their last four games and they have shot all the way up to third place in the Western Conference standings. They have a tough test ahead of them tonight, as they square off against the pesky Celtics in Boston.

The Celtics are quickly becoming one of the best defensive teams in the NBA. Marcus Smart went as far as saying that the Celtics are looking to make teams feel defeated by playing suffocating defense. On the season, they are ranked fourth in points allowed per game, third in defensive efficiency, and eighth in fantasy points allowed per game. The Mavericks still have an implied team total of 100 points, but the matchup is tougher than the total would lead you to believe.

The Mavericks are one of my least favorite team to target in daily fantasy. They have a well-balanced offense AND they have a deep rotation. No single player is guaranteed to play more than 30 minutes, which makes predicting fantasy performance difficult. With ten games on the schedule tonight, I will be avoiding the Mavericks in both cash games and tournaments. Dwight Powell is the top fantasy option here, but his price is slowly catching up to his production.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Dwight Powell

FD: $4,600 — DK: $5,000
Min/Game: 22.1 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 17.1
FP/Game: 23.8 — FP/Min.: 1.08

Boston

The Celtics look like they could be one of the surprise teams in the Eastern Conference this season. It’s still early, but they have won three games in a row and they now sit at 6-4 on the season. Boston has been dealing with a few injuries, but they should be at full-strength tonight against the Mavericks.

The Mavericks are an opponent that we don’t need to go out of our way to target, but they are also an opponent that we don’t need to avoid either. On the season, they are ranked between 12th and 18th in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game this season. Vegas expects the Celtics’ offense to continue to roll tonight, as they have an implied team total of 104.5 points.

Isaiah Thomas has been a frustrating fantasy option this season. He was incredibly productive off the bench, but when he was given a chance to start for Marcus Smart, he was a letdown. Then, once Smart and Avery Bradley both returned from injury, Thomas came alive again. He’s inconsistent, but he offers nice upside for the price. I’d label him an elite tournament play and a secondary cash game play tonight. Marcus Smart is worth a look on DraftKings at a price of only $4,800. Jae Crowder is always in the mix when it comes to small forwards, but his minutes are less secure now that Avery Bradley is coming off the bench. Jared Sullinger is my favorite play of the group. He has averaged 31 fantasy points over his last seven games.

Elite Plays

Jared Sullinger

FD: $5,900 — DK: $6,000
Min/Game: 24.2 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 17.4
FP/Game: 28.0 — FP/Min.: 1.16

Secondary Plays

Isaiah Thomas

FD: $7,500 — DK: $7,300
Min/Game: 30.2 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 27.4
FP/Game: 33.4 — FP/Min.: 1.11

Marcus Smart

FD: $5,800 — DK: $4,800
Min/Game: 30.7 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 16.9
FP/Game: 24.4 — FP/Min.: 0.79

Jae Crowder

FD: $5,100 — DK: $5,600
Min/Game: 30.4 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 14.0
FP/Game: 24.3 — FP/Min.: 0.80

Sacramento at Atlanta – 8:00 PM

Sacramento Atlanta
sacramentonba Vegas Total 208.5 atlantanba Vegas Total 208.5
Vegas Sprd 3.5 Vegas Sprd -3.5
Team Proj. 102.5 Team Proj. 106.0
Team Pace 103.30 Team Pace 98.70
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Rajon Rondo Ben McLemore Rudy Gay Willie Cauley-Stein DeMarcus Cousins Proj. Starter Dennis Schroder Kyle Korver Thabo Sefolosha Paul Millsap Al Horford
Opp. Season 16 26 7 16 30 Opp. Season 16 25 21 22 26
Opp. Last 7 24 27 2 9 26 Opp. Last 7 28 2 17 16 7

Sacramento

The Kings may be dysfunctional at times, but they are looking for their fourth win in a row. On most nights, the Kings would be large underdogs in a matchup against the Hawks in Atlanta, but not tonight. The Hawks are playing in the second half of a back-to-back and they may be short-handed again tonight. Vegas is expecting a close game, as the Kings are only 3.5-point underdogs on the road.

The Hawks have not had that elite defense that they did last season. They are ranked at or below the league average in defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. Vegas doesn’t expect a whole lot of defense to be played tonight, as the total for the game is set at 208.5 points. The Kings have an implied team total of 102.5 points, which is the sixth highest on the board tonight.

It sounds like Darren Collison could be back for tonight’s game, which would end the run of Rajon Rondo playing nearly every possible minute. If Collison is back in action, Rondo’s minutes will likely go back to the mid 30’s. At his current price point, you would be overpaying for Rondo. DeMarcus Cousins has scored 57+ fantasy points in back-to-back games and now gets to feast on a Hawks’ team that is ranked dead last against centers. He is the premier play at center tonight.

Elite Plays

DeMarcus Cousins

FD: $10,700 — DK: $10,300
Min/Game: 31.9 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 30.8
FP/Game: 45.0 — FP/Min.: 1.41

Secondary Plays

Rajon Rondo

He’s in play if Darren Collison is unable to return to the lineup.
FD: $7,600 — DK: $8,700
Min/Game: 35.5 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 18.8
FP/Game: 35.6 — FP/Min.: 1.00

Atlanta

The Hawks lost a tough one last night against the Nets. They have a quick turnaround tonight, as they host the visiting Kings. There hasn’t been an official update on Jeff Teague or Kent Bazemore today, but I can’t imagine much has changed in the last 24 hours. If they are both out again tonight, give a sizable boost to both Dennis Schroder and Kyle Korver.

The Hawks draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Hawks, who are ranked 24th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game this season. The Hawks have an implied team total of 106 points tonight, which is the third-highest on the board.

If Jeff Teague and Kent Bazemore are out again tonight, this could be a great time to load up on Hawks’ players. They have one of the highest team totals on the board and the injuries open the door for quite a few fantasy options. Dennis Schroder was a little disappointing in his start last night, but he has averaged over 30 fantasy points per game without Teague in the lineup over the last two seasons. He remains one of the best values on the board. Al Horford, Paul Millsap, and Kyle Korver are all borderline elite plays tonight, even though they all logged heavy minutes last night.

Elite Plays

Paul Millsap

FD: $8,300 — DK: $8,000
Min/Game: 34.5 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 18.8
FP/Game: 36.8 — FP/Min.: 1.07

Al Horford

FD: $7,800 — DK: $7,200
Min/Game: 31.8 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 19.7
FP/Game: 34.6 — FP/Min.: 1.09

Dennis Schroder

FD: $4,800 — DK: $4,900
Min/Game: 24.3 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 21.9
FP/Game: 21.7 — FP/Min.: 0.89

Secondary Plays

Kyle Korver

Borderline elite play on DraftKings with the three-point bonus.
FD: $4,800 — DK: $4,500
Min/Game: 31.6 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 11.3
FP/Game: 19.1 — FP/Min.: 0.60

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious