NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, November 22nd
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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.
Portland Trail Blazers at Philadelphia 76ers – 7:00 PM ET
Portland Trail Blazers | Philadelphia 76ers | |||||||||||
Vegas Total | 212.0 | Vegas Total | 212.0 | |||||||||
Vegas Spread | 4.0 | Vegas Spread | -4.0 | |||||||||
Implied Team Total | 104.0 | Implied Team Total | 108.0 | |||||||||
Pace Projection +/- | 4.6 | Pace Projection +/- | -2.1 | |||||||||
Projected Starters | Damian Lillard | C.J. McCollum | Maurice Harkless | Noah Vonleh | Jusuf Nurkic | Projected Starters | Ben Simmons | J.J. Redick | Robert Covington | Dario Saric | Joel Embiid | |
Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DvP | 13 | 29 | 25 | 16 | 27 | DvP | 7 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 7 | |
DRPM | 1.49 | -0.49 | 1.76 | -1.09 | 2.95 | DRPM | -0.34 | -0.53 | 0.61 | 0.93 | 1.61 |
Portland Trail Blazers
Buckle up everyone, we have a massive 14 game slate on tap tonight. I know that Thanksgiving is tomorrow, but I hope we don’t have many weeks like this moving forward. One game last night, 14 tonight, and no games tomorrow. Obviously, this isn’t great for anyone in DFS, whether you are on the side that offers games, the side that plays, or the side that offers content. Anyway, we will try to fly through these as quickly as possible, but I do want to wish everyone a happy Thanksgiving.
We start with the Blazers at Sixers in a game that features a spread of only four points. This is a pace-up spot for Portland, which is always a small boost to fantasy production. This is also a favorable matchup, as the Sixers are ranked 26th in points allowed per game this season. The Blazers implied total is sitting at 104 points, which is slightly above their season average.
It’s nice to see Damian Lillard priced appropriately tonight. For whatever reason, the sites can never seem to agree on a price for Dame D.O.L.L.A. He has an elite true usage rate and a decent matchup against the Sixers. I imagine that he will see Ben Simmons and/or J.J. Redick, while C.J. McCollum will draw the defense of Robert Covington. They are both viable plays, but far from core targets in a 14 game slate. Maurice Harkless and Evan Turner have both been in bad form and can be avoided in all formats.
There seems to be a disconnect between Jusuf Nurkic price and his fantasy production. I’m not sure why the sites continue to price him up, as he is only averaging 23 fantasy points in his last three games. Joel Embiid has the highest DRPM of any player in basketball this season, so the Nurkic fade has never been easier. The final play of note here is Noah Vonleh, who is coming off of an 11-point, 18-rebound game against the Grizzlies. He typically sees more minutes when he is playing well and fewer when he is struggling. Given the volatility, he is best suited in tournaments.
Notable Injuries
Al-Farouq Aminu (Out)
Portland Trail Blazers Offense
Points Per Game: 102.8 (21 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.0 (17 of 28)
Projected Point Differential: 1.2 (10 of 28)
Matchup vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Points Allowed Per Game: 108.9 (26 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.4 (13 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 4.6 (4 of 30)
Pace of Play: 105.2 (4 of 30)
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Damian Lillard | $9,000 | $9,100 | $17,000 | 42.1 | -6.1 | 36.0 | -1.1 | 1.17 | 29.5% | 55.4% | 13 | 1.49 |
C.J. McCollum | $7,000 | $7,300 | $13,700 | 34.2 | -0.3 | 36.1 | 0.5 | 0.95 | 23.7% | 59.8% | 29 | -0.49 |
Maurice Harkless | $3,600 | $3,500 | $6,800 | 16.4 | -3.9 | 27.0 | -5.8 | 0.61 | 10.6% | 49.6% | 25 | 1.76 |
Noah Vonleh | $3,500 | $3,500 | $7,300 | 16.8 | 7.0 | 21.2 | 3.6 | 0.79 | 9.8% | 53.9% | 16 | -1.09 |
Jusuf Nurkic | $7,300 | $6,600 | $12,000 | 27.8 | -5.1 | 27.6 | 0.1 | 1.01 | 23.8% | 48.4% | 27 | 2.95 |
Evan Turner | $3,700 | $4,400 | $8,600 | 18.6 | -12.4 | 26.9 | -8.1 | 0.69 | 16.0% | 47.3% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Noah Vonleh (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Damian Lillard, C.J. McCollum, Noah Vonleh (Cash)
Philadelphia 76ers
For the first time in a long time, Sixers’ fans actually have some good basketball to be thankful for. Not only is this team fun to watch, but they also play at a pace that is conducive to fantasy production. Even though tonight’s matchup against the Blazers is far from ideal — Portland is second in points allowed per game and first in rebounding differential, the spread is close and the Sixers have an implied total of 108 points.
As you can see from the player table below, the Sixers have condensed their rotation recently. All six players listed in the table have averaged more minutes in their last three games than they have on the season. Ben Simmons continues to dominate every time out and already has the Rookie of the Year trophy in his grasp. He’s expensive on FanDuel, but an elite option on DraftKings. J.J. Redick has quietly played well all season and offers decent value at shooting guard.
Robert Covington and Dario Saric should both fly under the radar at their respective positions. Targeting more than one or two Sixers is tough to do in a big slate, which should keep ownership down on these two. I’m not sure I will look their way in cash games, but I will have exposure to both in tournaments. Last but not least, we have Joel Embiid, who is averaging 55 fantasy points over his last three games. He leads the starters in true usage and his minutes are up. The only question is whether he can pay off his salary in a difficult matchup against Jusuf Nurkic (1.61 DRPM).
Notable Injuries
None
Philadelphia 76ers Offense
Points Per Game: 108.9 (6 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 108.0 (8 of 28)
Projected Point Differential: -0.9 (16 of 28)
Matchup vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.2 (2 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 98.2 (2 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 7.7 (1 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.5 (22 of 30)
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ben Simmons | $10,200 | $9,500 | $17,600 | 45.7 | 8.6 | 34.8 | 2.2 | 1.31 | 24.6% | 54.0% | 7 | -0.34 |
J.J. Redick | $5,300 | $5,000 | $9,700 | 25.3 | 3.4 | 33.3 | 1.6 | 0.76 | 17.9% | 56.5% | 6 | -0.53 |
Robert Covington | $6,800 | $6,200 | $13,500 | 31.3 | -1.0 | 31.5 | 1.6 | 0.99 | 16.3% | 66.2% | 6 | 0.61 |
Dario Saric | $5,400 | $5,000 | $9,800 | 20.3 | 6.5 | 27.2 | 4.2 | 0.74 | 15.9% | 47.8% | 1 | 0.93 |
Joel Embiid | $10,200 | $9,700 | $19,600 | 44.6 | 9.6 | 29.2 | 2.4 | 1.53 | 27.4% | 58.1% | 7 | 1.61 |
T.J. McConnell | $4,700 | $4,000 | $7,600 | 20.2 | -4.3 | 23.8 | 1.4 | 0.85 | 14.8% | 53.6% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Ben Simmons (DK)
Secondary Plays – Ben Simmons (FD), J.J. Redick, Robert Covington, Dario Saric, Joel Embiid
Brooklyn Nets at Cleveland Cavaliers – 7:00 PM ET
Brooklyn Nets | Cleveland Cavaliers | |||||||||||
Vegas Total | 228.0 | Vegas Total | 228.0 | |||||||||
Vegas Spread | 10.0 | Vegas Spread | -10.0 | |||||||||
Implied Team Total | 109.0 | Implied Team Total | 119.0 | |||||||||
Pace Projection +/- | 0.1 | Pace Projection +/- | 6.4 | |||||||||
Projected Starters | Spencer Dinwiddie | Allen Crabbe | DeMarre Carroll | Rondae Hollis-Jefferson | Trevor Booker | Projected Starters | Jose Calderon | J.R. Smith | LeBron James | Jae Crowder | Kevin Love | |
Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DvP | 23 | 25 | 19 | 17 | 20 | DvP | 28 | 17 | 29 | 29 | 28 | |
DRPM | -0.29 | -1.42 | -0.95 | -0.60 | 0.07 | DRPM | -0.33 | -1.22 | 1.16 | -0.85 | -0.36 |
Brooklyn Nets
If this game would have been played on opening night, the Nets would have likely been 18-point underdogs. Brooklyn has played better than we expected, while Cleveland has racked up some bad losses. This game still has blowout potential, but the Cavaliers have blown very few teams out so far this season. If it stays close, it should be a fantasy goldmine, as both teams are ranked in the bottom three in points allowed per game.
There isn’t a single position that the Cavaliers defend well and the highest DRPM of any of their starters is 0.07 (Kevin Love). We can attack Cleveland a number of ways, but my favorite is with Spencer Dinwiddie. He has shined in D’Angelo Russell’s absence, averaging 32 minutes and 41 fantasy points in his last three games. The Cavaliers do not have a true point guard that sees more than a few minutes per night, which makes it tough to defend opposing point guards. Even at his elevated price, Dinwiddie makes an excellent play in tournaments.
Allen Crabbe minutes and production are both up over the last week of play, but he’s a volatile player in a 14 game slate. While he may pop in most projection models, we have to consider a player’s floor, not just their median projection. For that reason, he’s a fade for me tonight. DeMarre Carroll stands out as a nice play, but he’s typically the first Nets’ player on the bench in blowouts. That’s a little concerning tonight, as the Nets are double-digit underdogs.
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson has been quiet recently, but the Cavaliers don’t defend the paint well and are an average rebounding team. If Trevor Booker is unable to suit up, RHJ could play 30-32 minutes in a great matchup. If Booker is active, he becomes an interesting value at power forward. He averages close to a fantasy point per minute and played 26 and 27 minutes in the two games prior to hurting his ankle.
Notable Injuries
D’Angelo Russell (Out)
Trevor Booker (Questionable)
Brooklyn Nets Offense
Points Per Game: 110.6 (4 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 109.0 (6 of 28)
Projected Point Differential: -1.6 (20 of 28)
Matchup vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Points Allowed Per Game: 110.8 (28 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 109.4 (30 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.3 (14 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.7 (13 of 30)
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Spencer Dinwiddie | $7,600 | $6,300 | $13,400 | 25.8 | 15.1 | 24.3 | 8.0 | 1.06 | 22.3% | 54.6% | 23 | -0.29 |
Allen Crabbe | $5,600 | $4,600 | $8,800 | 21.3 | 8.8 | 26.9 | 5.5 | 0.79 | 16.4% | 57.0% | 25 | -1.42 |
DeMarre Carroll | $5,800 | $5,300 | $10,400 | 27.9 | -1.4 | 29.0 | 1.4 | 0.96 | 17.2% | 56.8% | 19 | -0.95 |
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson | $7,200 | $6,400 | $12,400 | 28.3 | -0.8 | 28.3 | 2.2 | 1.00 | 18.4% | 56.8% | 17 | -0.60 |
Trevor Booker | $5,400 | $4,800 | $9,000 | 20.5 | -4.3 | 21.7 | -0.5 | 0.94 | 18.7% | 53.3% | 20 | 0.07 |
Caris LeVert | $4,600 | $4,100 | $8,000 | 21.8 | 1.5 | 25.4 | -3.5 | 0.86 | 18.6% | 47.0% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Spencer Dinwiddie (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Spencer Dinwiddie (Cash), Allen Crabbe, DeMarre Carroll, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Trevor Booker (if active)
Cleveland Cavaliers
The Cavaliers are finally starting to find a groove, winning five games in a row and coming off of a nice blowout win over the Pistons in Detroit. They draw the best matchup possible tonight, as they host a Nets’ team that is ranked first in pace of play and 29th in points allowed per game. The double-digit spread is a little worrisome, but the upside outweighs the risk, especially in tournaments. The Cavaliers have an implied total of 119 points, which is the highest on the slate and eight points above their season average.
I shouldn’t have to tell you that LeBron James and Kevin Love are both excellent plays tonight. If this game stays close and they see their usual complement of minutes, there is a decent chance that they both reach and exceed value. The big question is whether or not we can play the role players from Cleveland. J.R. Smith is cheap and could catch fire against a bad defense, Jae Crowder has been quiet, but is only $3,800 on DraftKings, and Dwyane Wade is averaging 34 fantasy points in his last three games. You can make a serious argument for any of the five Cavaliers that I have mentioned and we can lock and load LeBron in all formats.
Notable Injuries
Tristan Thompson (Out)
Iman Shumpert (Out)
Cleveland Cavaliers Offense
Points Per Game: 110.9 (3 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 119.0 (1 of 28)
Projected Point Differential: 8.1 (3 of 28)
Matchup vs. Brooklyn Nets
Points Allowed Per Game: 113.9 (29 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.1 (26 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.1 (24 of 30)
Pace of Play: 107.0 (1 of 30)
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jose Calderon | $3,000 | $3,000 | $6,100 | 5.3 | 8.4 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 0.55 | 12.8% | 66.6% | 28 | -0.33 |
J.R. Smith | $4,300 | $4,200 | $8,700 | 16.5 | 1.1 | 29.9 | 1.3 | 0.55 | 12.5% | 46.4% | 17 | -1.22 |
LeBron James | $12,000 | $11,400 | $20,900 | 52.7 | -1.6 | 37.9 | -1.2 | 1.39 | 29.2% | 65.8% | 29 | 1.16 |
Jae Crowder | $4,300 | $3,800 | $7,800 | 16.0 | 2.0 | 26.4 | 0.3 | 0.60 | 14.0% | 51.9% | 29 | -0.85 |
Kevin Love | $8,000 | $7,900 | $14,600 | 35.4 | 4.6 | 29.7 | 2.1 | 1.19 | 21.9% | 60.7% | 28 | -0.36 |
Dwyane Wade | $6,500 | $5,400 | $9,500 | 23.6 | 10.6 | 22.8 | 2.5 | 1.03 | 22.2% | 47.1% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – LeBron James, Kevin Love
Secondary Plays – J.R. Smith (GPP), Jae Crowder (DK), Dwyane Wade (DK)
Washington Wizards at Charlotte Hornets – 7:00 PM ET
Washington Wizards | Charlotte Hornets | |||||||||||
Vegas Total | 209.5 | Vegas Total | 209.5 | |||||||||
Vegas Spread | 2.5 | Vegas Spread | -2.5 | |||||||||
Implied Team Total | 103.5 | Implied Team Total | 106.0 | |||||||||
Pace Projection +/- | 1.0 | Pace Projection +/- | -0.5 | |||||||||
Projected Starters | John Wall | Bradley Beal | Otto Porter | Markieff Morris | Marcin Gortat | Projected Starters | Kemba Walker | Nicolas Batum | Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | Marvin Williams | Dwight Howard | |
Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DvP | 19 | 23 | 20 | 10 | 12 | DvP | 15 | 4 | 30 | 6 | 5 | |
DRPM | -0.80 | -0.34 | 1.00 | 0.57 | 2.12 | DRPM | -0.44 | -0.34 | 1.91 | 1.00 | 0.60 |
Washington Wizards
If you have read the Grind Down before (at least on the days that I have written it), then you know that I like to downgrade teams that are facing the Hornets in Charlotte. Not only is their record much better at home, but so is their defense. They are holding opponents to 103.9 points per game in Charlotte, which is three points lower than what they allow on the road. The Wizards come into tonight’s game as 2.5-point underdogs with an implied total of only 103.5 points.
The Hornets have struggled to defend wing players this season, but we have to keep in mind that a lot of that production came with Jeremy Lamb and Dwayne Bacon on the floor. Nicolas Batum and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist are significantly better defenders, so I will be avoiding both Bradley Beal and Otto Porter. John Wall has scored at least 56 fantasy points in two of his last four meetings with Kemba Walker and draws the best individual matchup of the five starters. At a price of $8,700 on DraftKings, I have some serious interest, especially if his ownership is going to be low.
The Wizards have slowly increased the playing time for Markieff Morris, but he has yet to play more than 26 minutes in a game this season. With 13 other games on the schedule, we can find a safer option at power forward. Marcin Gortat is an intriguing play tonight. He is a streaky player that is finally back on the upswing. Over his last three games, he is averaging 33 fantasy points. He has played at least 28 minutes in each of his last four games against Dwight Howard.
Notable Injuries
None
Washington Wizards Offense
Points Per Game: 107.5 (11 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 103.5 (19 of 28)
Projected Point Differential: -4.0 (26 of 28)
Matchup vs. Charlotte Hornets
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.4 (15 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.3 (12 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.3 (8 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.6 (8 of 30)
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
John Wall | $9,600 | $8,700 | $16,500 | 41.0 | -19.1 | 33.9 | -0.7 | 1.21 | 28.4% | 53.1% | 19 | -0.80 |
Bradley Beal | $7,700 | $7,800 | $14,000 | 37.2 | -0.4 | 35.1 | 2.6 | 1.06 | 25.9% | 59.4% | 23 | -0.34 |
Otto Porter | $6,400 | $6,100 | $11,700 | 32.8 | -6.9 | 33.5 | 1.5 | 0.98 | 15.8% | 64.2% | 20 | 1.00 |
Markieff Morris | $4,700 | $4,600 | $9,500 | 18.1 | 1.9 | 21.5 | 3.9 | 0.84 | 18.7% | 51.7% | 10 | 0.57 |
Marcin Gortat | $5,200 | $5,100 | $9,900 | 26.1 | 6.6 | 30.6 | 2.3 | 0.85 | 13.6% | 57.7% | 12 | 2.12 |
Kelly Oubre | $4,000 | $4,400 | $8,600 | 21.9 | -7.2 | 28.3 | -6.9 | 0.77 | 14.6% | 57.1% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – John Wall (DK), Marcin Gortat
Secondary Plays – John Wall (FD)
Charlotte Hornets
The Hornets continue to play well at home (6-2) and they continue to struggle on the road (1-7). They draw a fairly difficult matchup tonight against the Wizards, who are ranked above the league average in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. While the Hornets’ implied total isn’t the highest on the board, it’s nearly identical to their season average at 106 points.
Kemba Walker home/road splits might be exaggerated a bit (I haven’t helped the cause), but he does average nearly three more fantasy points per game at home throughout his career. He draws a nice matchup against John Wall, who has the lowest DRPM grades of any of the five Wizards’ starters. Walker doesn’t have a great track record against Wall in his career, but he did drop 57 fantasy points against him in their last meeting. Seeing as how Walker’s price is up and Wall’s price is down, I’m more inclined to play the buy-low game if I’m targeting a point guard in this one.
Nicolas Batum is only averaging 29 minutes per game on the season and draws a tough matchup against Otto Porter, who owns a 1.91 DRPM this season. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is intriguing on DraftKings, but only in tournaments. He is averaging 30 minutes in his last three games and should be defended by Bradley Beal. Trying to predict how to predict Dwight Howard is going to play every night is a losing proposition. In his last four games, he has scored 13, 20, 43, and 56 fantasy points. While I don’t love the volatility, I like targeting him against true centers that rarely leave the paint. Marcin Gortat fits the bill and Howard has performed well in this matchup in the past, topping 40 fantasy points in three of their last four meetings.
Notable Injuries
None
Charlotte Hornets Offense
Points Per Game: 105.5 (15 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 106.0 (12 of 28)
Projected Point Differential: 0.5 (12 of 28)
Matchup vs. Washington Wizards
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.9 (8 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.5 (8 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.7 (12 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.1 (14 of 30)
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kemba Walker | $8,300 | $8,000 | $14,400 | 37.5 | 3.9 | 34.9 | 1.0 | 1.07 | 26.2% | 60.0% | 15 | -0.44 |
Nicolas Batum | $7,200 | $6,300 | $13,300 | 28.5 | -1.5 | 28.9 | -1.1 | 0.98 | 20.5% | 54.7% | 4 | -0.34 |
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | $5,300 | $4,100 | $7,900 | 17.5 | -0.8 | 23.1 | 7.1 | 0.76 | 13.2% | 55.4% | 30 | 1.91 |
Marvin Williams | $4,700 | $3,800 | $7,300 | 17.8 | -0.7 | 25.6 | 1.7 | 0.70 | 12.6% | 58.0% | 6 | 1.00 |
Dwight Howard | $7,500 | $6,700 | $13,800 | 33.2 | 6.4 | 29.6 | -0.4 | 1.12 | 18.7% | 55.6% | 5 | 0.60 |
Frank Kaminsky | $3,800 | $4,000 | $7,700 | 19.4 | -0.7 | 25.0 | -4.7 | 0.78 | 19.1% | 52.0% | N/A | N/A |
Jeremy Lamb | $5,100 | $5,200 | $10,200 | 28.6 | -0.5 | 28.3 | -5.9 | 1.01 | 22.0% | 57.8% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Dwight Howard (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Dwight Howard (Cash), Kemba Walker, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (DK)
Los Angeles Clippers at Atlanta Hawks – 7:30 PM ET
Los Angeles Clippers | Atlanta Hawks | |||||||||||
Vegas Total | 209.0 | Vegas Total | 209.0 | |||||||||
Vegas Spread | -3.0 | Vegas Spread | 3.0 | |||||||||
Implied Team Total | 106.0 | Implied Team Total | 103.0 | |||||||||
Pace Projection +/- | 0.3 | Pace Projection +/- | -0.9 | |||||||||
Projected Starters | Sindarius Thornwell | Austin Rivers | Wesley Johnson | Blake Griffin | DeAndre Jordan | Projected Starters | Dennis Schroder | Kent Bazemore | Taurean Prince | Ersan Ilyasova | Dewayne Dedmon | |
Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DvP | 17 | 30 | 23 | 26 | 19 | DvP | 8 | 22 | 24 | 19 | 26 | |
DRPM | -2.80 | 0.53 | -0.05 | 1.25 | 0.91 | DRPM | -0.37 | -1.13 | -0.06 | -0.59 | 1.20 |
Los Angeles Clippers
The Clippers are going to be short-handed again tonight, as Patrick Beverley and Danilo Gallinari have already been ruled out. Luckily, this is still a winnable game for Los Angeles, as they take on a Hawks’ team that has the worst record in the Eastern Conference. This is also a favorable matchup for fantasy production, as the Hawks are ranked 11th in pace of play and 24th in rebounding differential. Despite missing two starters, the Clippers still have an implied total of 106 points.
Sindarius Thornwell is going to draw another start at point guard, but he’s my least favorite guard from the Clippers tonight. Austin Rivers will play at least 35 minutes in a dream matchup and Lou Williams should see minutes in the 30s as well. Williams is a core play for me on FanDuel ($5,400) and even though the revenge may have worn off after playing for a few different teams, he did spend a couple of seasons with the Hawks. Wesley Johnson is averaging 33 minutes and 34 fantasy points in his last three games and is still only $3,800 on DraftKings. If you need value at SF/PF, Johnson is one of the better ones available tonight.
I keep waiting for a monster game from Blake Griffin. He has yet to score more than 53 fantasy points in a game this season, despite an increased usage rate without Chris Paul on the team. I don’t like to make bold predictions very often, but I’m calling for a season high in fantasy points from Griffin tonight. The Hawks are ranked 26th against power forwards and 27th in rebounding differential. DeAndre Jordan has a slightly more difficult matchup against Dewayne Dedmon. While Jordan can have big outings every now and then, I like centers that are a little more involved offensively.
Notable Injuries
Patrick Beverley (Out)
Danilo Gallinari (Out)
Los Angeles Clippers Offense
Points Per Game: 104.9 (16 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 106.0 (12 of 28)
Projected Point Differential: 1.1 (11 of 28)
Matchup vs. Atlanta Hawks
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.8 (24 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.4 (21 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.7 (27 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.9 (11 of 30)
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sindarius Thornwell | $3,700 | $3,200 | $6,300 | 9.6 | 2.1 | 17.1 | 8.8 | 0.56 | 12.2% | 54.6% | 17 | -2.80 |
Austin Rivers | $4,800 | $5,100 | $9,900 | 22.5 | -4.2 | 32.8 | 0.9 | 0.68 | 18.6% | 46.9% | 30 | 0.53 |
Wesley Johnson | $4,600 | $3,800 | $7,400 | 18.2 | 15.5 | 22.9 | 10.0 | 0.80 | 11.8% | 54.6% | 23 | -0.05 |
Blake Griffin | $8,900 | $9,300 | $16,500 | 40.4 | 0.5 | 35.5 | 1.5 | 1.14 | 27.8% | 53.4% | 26 | 1.25 |
DeAndre Jordan | $7,600 | $7,000 | $13,200 | 31.3 | 6.0 | 32.4 | 3.1 | 0.97 | 10.6% | 64.3% | 19 | 0.91 |
Lou Williams | $5,400 | $7,100 | $12,400 | 26.3 | -3.5 | 27.3 | 3.6 | 0.96 | 25.4% | 57.5% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Lou Williams (FD), Wesley Johnson (DK), Blake Griffin
Secondary Plays – Austin Rivers, Lou Williams (DK), Wesley Johnson (FD)
Atlanta Hawks
The Hawks have won three games on the season, but come into tonight’s game as only 3-point underdogs. When I first glanced at the schedule for tonight, I didn’t expect much from this game, but diving into it a little deeper, this is actually one of my favorite games to stack. The spread is close, the rotations are condensed, and the total is set at 209 points. The Hawks have an implied total of 103 points, which is slightly above their season average.
With Patrick Beverley out, we can fire up Dennis Schroder in all formats. His peripheral statistics haven’t been great this season, but he owns a 29% true usage and he has three winnable matchups against the likes of Austin Rivers, Sindarius Thornwell, and Lou Williams. With Luke Babbitt and Mike Muscala out tonight, there are a lot of minutes available in this rotation. If the Hawks decide to play small at times, we could see a few extra minutes for Kent Bazemore, who makes sense in large-field tournaments.
Ersan Ilyasova will draw the start at the four, but the biggest boost should go to Taurean Prince and John Collins. Prince’s minutes and production are both trending up and he is very affordable on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Collins has been per-minute monster this season and is finally starting to see an increase in playing time, averaging 28 minutes over his last three games. Dewayne Dedmon could see a few extra minutes as well, but I’ll take Marcin Gortat over him at a similar price point.
Notable Injuries
Mike Muscala (Out)
Luke Babbitt (Out)
Atlanta Hawks Offense
Points Per Game: 102.8 (21 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 103.0 (21 of 28)
Projected Point Differential: 0.2 (13 of 28)
Matchup vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.6 (19 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.2 (20 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.3 (14 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.7 (17 of 30)
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dennis Schroder | $7,300 | $6,700 | $12,900 | 34.4 | 0.2 | 32.3 | -1.1 | 1.07 | 28.7% | 52.9% | 8 | -0.37 |
Kent Bazemore | $6,000 | $5,500 | $10,900 | 28.9 | -4.3 | 28.7 | -2.4 | 1.01 | 21.2% | 51.1% | 22 | -1.13 |
Taurean Prince | $5,700 | $5,000 | $9,700 | 27.3 | 4.5 | 32.1 | 2.5 | 0.85 | 17.0% | 54.2% | 24 | -0.06 |
Ersan Ilyasova | $4,100 | $3,900 | $9,000 | 15.5 | -5.6 | 20.4 | -7.7 | 0.76 | 13.8% | 36.2% | 19 | -0.59 |
Dewayne Dedmon | $5,500 | $5,300 | $9,900 | 24.7 | 8.7 | 24.1 | 0.4 | 1.02 | 14.5% | 66.0% | 26 | 1.20 |
John Collins | $5,200 | $4,600 | $9,500 | 24.1 | 4.7 | 22.2 | 5.6 | 1.08 | 18.3% | 60.4% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Dennis Schroder, Taurean Prince, John Collins (GPP)
Secondary Plays – John Collins (GPP)
Boston Celtics at Miami Heat – 7:30 PM ET
Boston Celtics | Miami Heat | |||||||||||
Vegas Total | 196.0 | Vegas Total | 196.0 | |||||||||
Vegas Spread | -3.0 | Vegas Spread | 3.0 | |||||||||
Implied Team Total | 99.5 | Implied Team Total | 96.5 | |||||||||
Pace Projection +/- | -1.5 | Pace Projection +/- | -1.8 | |||||||||
Projected Starters | Kyrie Irving | Jaylen Brown | Jayson Tatum | Marcus Morris | Al Horford | Projected Starters | Goran Dragic | Dion Waiters | Josh Richardson | Justise Winslow | Hassan Whiteside | |
Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DvP | 9 | 11 | 5 | 23 | 3 | DvP | 3 | 1 | 18 | 3 | 2 | |
DRPM | -1.21 | -0.67 | 1.51 | 0.08 | 2.71 | DRPM | 0.51 | 1.20 | 1.02 | 0.35 | 2.48 |
Boston Celtics
We go from one of my favorite games in the Clippers-Hawks (still sounds weird) to one of my least favorite in the Celtics-Heat. Both of these teams are ranked in the bottom half of the league in pace of play and in the top half in points allowed per game. I often talk about finding good game environments for fantasy production and this one doesn’t look like it fits the mold. The Celtics have an implied total of only 99.5 points, which is the fourth lowest on the board and three points below their season average.
Kyrie Irving has been on a tear recently and for some odd reason, the sites haven’t adjusted his salary. Over his last three games, he is averaging 34 minutes and 46 fantasy points per contest. He draws the best matchup of the five starters and is the one and only Celtics’ player on my radar tonight. Goran Dragic is not a good defender (-1.21 DRPM) and Irving’s upside isn’t really impacted by the fact that the Heat have one of the best rim protectors in basketball. The rest of the Celtics can be avoided in the biggest slate of the year.
Notable Injuries
None
Boston Celtics Offense
Points Per Game: 102.9 (20 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 99.5 (25 of 28)
Projected Point Differential: -3.4 (24 of 28)
Matchup vs. Miami Heat
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.1 (9 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.9 (14 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.4 (20 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.1 (19 of 30)
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kyrie Irving | $8,000 | $8,200 | $15,400 | 38.2 | 7.7 | 31.5 | 3.2 | 1.21 | 28.9% | 58.2% | 9 | -1.21 |
Jaylen Brown | $6,700 | $6,500 | $12,100 | 28.6 | 7.8 | 32.6 | 3.0 | 0.88 | 18.8% | 56.4% | 11 | -0.67 |
Jayson Tatum | $5,700 | $5,800 | $11,500 | 26.6 | 3.3 | 30.3 | 0.9 | 0.88 | 15.9% | 62.9% | 5 | 1.51 |
Marcus Morris | $4,800 | $4,900 | $9,500 | 23.7 | 2.0 | 23.7 | 2.0 | 1.00 | 20.9% | 56.3% | 23 | 0.08 |
Al Horford | $7,000 | $7,100 | $13,200 | 32.9 | -5.6 | 32.6 | 2.9 | 1.01 | 17.0% | 64.8% | 3 | 2.71 |
Marcus Smart | $5,200 | $5,300 | $9,900 | 25.9 | -2.4 | 30.6 | 0.2 | 0.85 | 19.5% | 39.5% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Kyrie Irving (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Kyrie Irving (Cash)
Miami Heat
The Heat draw one of the worst possible matchups, as they face a Celtics’ team that has won 16 games in a row. Whenever we have two defensive-minded teams squaring off, we can expect a low scoring game. The total for this game is set at a whopping 196 points. Boston is currently ranked first or second in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Heat’s implied total of 96.5 points is the third lowest on the board and four points below their season average.
All five of the Celtics’ starters have positive DRPM grades this season and as a team, they are ranked third or better in fantasy points allowed to point guards, shooting guards, power forwards, and centers. We used to be able to attack Boston with centers, but that hasn’t been the case this season. We can afford to be picky in a slate this size, so I won’t be forcing any of the Heat players into my lineups. In fact, I can safely say that I will be fading Miami completely.
Notable Injuries
Josh Richardson (Questionable)
Miami Heat Offense
Points Per Game: 100.3 (25 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 96.5 (26 of 28)
Projected Point Differential: -3.8 (25 of 28)
Matchup vs. Boston Celtics
Points Allowed Per Game: 94.8 (1 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 95.8 (1 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 5.7 (2 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.8 (20 of 30)
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goran Dragic | $6,300 | $6,400 | $12,000 | 31.0 | -7.0 | 34.1 | -1.1 | 0.91 | 23.6% | 55.5% | 3 | 0.51 |
Dion Waiters | $5,500 | $5,500 | $12,000 | 24.5 | -4.8 | 31.6 | -0.6 | 0.77 | 23.2% | 48.5% | 1 | 1.20 |
Josh Richardson | $4,400 | $4,500 | $8,400 | 21.0 | -5.1 | 33.2 | -0.1 | 0.63 | 14.0% | 47.8% | 18 | 1.02 |
Justise Winslow | $4,100 | $4,200 | $8,200 | 18.7 | 3.2 | 23.6 | -2.4 | 0.79 | 14.3% | 47.4% | 3 | 0.35 |
Hassan Whiteside | $8,800 | $8,600 | $15,700 | 39.8 | -1.6 | 28.2 | 0.9 | 1.41 | 19.5% | 61.4% | 2 | 2.48 |
James Johnson | $5,500 | $5,600 | $12,200 | 27.9 | -7.8 | 28.1 | 0.2 | 0.99 | 19.0% | 59.9% | N/A | N/A |
Tyler Johnson | $4,300 | $4,100 | $7,900 | 19.4 | -0.6 | 27.8 | -1.7 | 0.70 | 17.4% | 47.5% | N/A | N/A |