NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, November 22nd

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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ


Portland Trail Blazers at Philadelphia 76ers – 7:00 PM ET

Portland Trail Blazers Philadelphia 76ers
Article Image Vegas Total 212.0 Article Image Vegas Total 212.0
Vegas Spread 4.0 Vegas Spread -4.0
Implied Team Total 104.0 Implied Team Total 108.0
Pace Projection +/- 4.6 Pace Projection +/- -2.1
Projected Starters Damian Lillard C.J. McCollum Maurice Harkless Noah Vonleh Jusuf Nurkic Projected Starters Ben Simmons J.J. Redick Robert Covington Dario Saric Joel Embiid
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 13 29 25 16 27 DvP 7 6 6 1 7
DRPM 1.49 -0.49 1.76 -1.09 2.95 DRPM -0.34 -0.53 0.61 0.93 1.61

Portland Trail Blazers

Buckle up everyone, we have a massive 14 game slate on tap tonight. I know that Thanksgiving is tomorrow, but I hope we don’t have many weeks like this moving forward. One game last night, 14 tonight, and no games tomorrow. Obviously, this isn’t great for anyone in DFS, whether you are on the side that offers games, the side that plays, or the side that offers content. Anyway, we will try to fly through these as quickly as possible, but I do want to wish everyone a happy Thanksgiving.

We start with the Blazers at Sixers in a game that features a spread of only four points. This is a pace-up spot for Portland, which is always a small boost to fantasy production. This is also a favorable matchup, as the Sixers are ranked 26th in points allowed per game this season. The Blazers implied total is sitting at 104 points, which is slightly above their season average.

It’s nice to see Damian Lillard priced appropriately tonight. For whatever reason, the sites can never seem to agree on a price for Dame D.O.L.L.A. He has an elite true usage rate and a decent matchup against the Sixers. I imagine that he will see Ben Simmons and/or J.J. Redick, while C.J. McCollum will draw the defense of Robert Covington. They are both viable plays, but far from core targets in a 14 game slate. Maurice Harkless and Evan Turner have both been in bad form and can be avoided in all formats.

There seems to be a disconnect between Jusuf Nurkic price and his fantasy production. I’m not sure why the sites continue to price him up, as he is only averaging 23 fantasy points in his last three games. Joel Embiid has the highest DRPM of any player in basketball this season, so the Nurkic fade has never been easier. The final play of note here is Noah Vonleh, who is coming off of an 11-point, 18-rebound game against the Grizzlies. He typically sees more minutes when he is playing well and fewer when he is struggling. Given the volatility, he is best suited in tournaments.

Notable Injuries

Al-Farouq Aminu (Out)

Portland Trail Blazers Offense

Points Per Game: 102.8 (21 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.0 (17 of 28)
Projected Point Differential: 1.2 (10 of 28)

Matchup vs. Philadelphia 76ers

Points Allowed Per Game: 108.9 (26 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.4 (13 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 4.6 (4 of 30)
Pace of Play: 105.2 (4 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L3 +/- Minutes L3 +/- FP/Min True Usage TS% Opp. DvP Opp. DRPM
Damian Lillard $9,000 $9,100 $17,000 42.1 -6.1 36.0 -1.1 1.17 29.5% 55.4% 13 1.49
C.J. McCollum $7,000 $7,300 $13,700 34.2 -0.3 36.1 0.5 0.95 23.7% 59.8% 29 -0.49
Maurice Harkless $3,600 $3,500 $6,800 16.4 -3.9 27.0 -5.8 0.61 10.6% 49.6% 25 1.76
Noah Vonleh $3,500 $3,500 $7,300 16.8 7.0 21.2 3.6 0.79 9.8% 53.9% 16 -1.09
Jusuf Nurkic $7,300 $6,600 $12,000 27.8 -5.1 27.6 0.1 1.01 23.8% 48.4% 27 2.95
Evan Turner $3,700 $4,400 $8,600 18.6 -12.4 26.9 -8.1 0.69 16.0% 47.3% N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Noah Vonleh (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Damian Lillard, C.J. McCollum, Noah Vonleh (Cash)


Philadelphia 76ers

For the first time in a long time, Sixers’ fans actually have some good basketball to be thankful for. Not only is this team fun to watch, but they also play at a pace that is conducive to fantasy production. Even though tonight’s matchup against the Blazers is far from ideal — Portland is second in points allowed per game and first in rebounding differential, the spread is close and the Sixers have an implied total of 108 points.

As you can see from the player table below, the Sixers have condensed their rotation recently. All six players listed in the table have averaged more minutes in their last three games than they have on the season. Ben Simmons continues to dominate every time out and already has the Rookie of the Year trophy in his grasp. He’s expensive on FanDuel, but an elite option on DraftKings. J.J. Redick has quietly played well all season and offers decent value at shooting guard.

Robert Covington and Dario Saric should both fly under the radar at their respective positions. Targeting more than one or two Sixers is tough to do in a big slate, which should keep ownership down on these two. I’m not sure I will look their way in cash games, but I will have exposure to both in tournaments. Last but not least, we have Joel Embiid, who is averaging 55 fantasy points over his last three games. He leads the starters in true usage and his minutes are up. The only question is whether he can pay off his salary in a difficult matchup against Jusuf Nurkic (1.61 DRPM).

Notable Injuries

None

Philadelphia 76ers Offense

Points Per Game: 108.9 (6 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 108.0 (8 of 28)
Projected Point Differential: -0.9 (16 of 28)

Matchup vs. Portland Trail Blazers

Points Allowed Per Game: 97.2 (2 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 98.2 (2 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 7.7 (1 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.5 (22 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L3 +/- Minutes L3 +/- FP/Min True Usage TS% Opp. DvP Opp. DRPM
Ben Simmons $10,200 $9,500 $17,600 45.7 8.6 34.8 2.2 1.31 24.6% 54.0% 7 -0.34
J.J. Redick $5,300 $5,000 $9,700 25.3 3.4 33.3 1.6 0.76 17.9% 56.5% 6 -0.53
Robert Covington $6,800 $6,200 $13,500 31.3 -1.0 31.5 1.6 0.99 16.3% 66.2% 6 0.61
Dario Saric $5,400 $5,000 $9,800 20.3 6.5 27.2 4.2 0.74 15.9% 47.8% 1 0.93
Joel Embiid $10,200 $9,700 $19,600 44.6 9.6 29.2 2.4 1.53 27.4% 58.1% 7 1.61
T.J. McConnell $4,700 $4,000 $7,600 20.2 -4.3 23.8 1.4 0.85 14.8% 53.6% N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Ben Simmons (DK)

Secondary Plays – Ben Simmons (FD), J.J. Redick, Robert Covington, Dario Saric, Joel Embiid


Brooklyn Nets at Cleveland Cavaliers – 7:00 PM ET

Brooklyn Nets Cleveland Cavaliers
Article Image Vegas Total 228.0 Article Image Vegas Total 228.0
Vegas Spread 10.0 Vegas Spread -10.0
Implied Team Total 109.0 Implied Team Total 119.0
Pace Projection +/- 0.1 Pace Projection +/- 6.4
Projected Starters Spencer Dinwiddie Allen Crabbe DeMarre Carroll Rondae Hollis-Jefferson Trevor Booker Projected Starters Jose Calderon J.R. Smith LeBron James Jae Crowder Kevin Love
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 23 25 19 17 20 DvP 28 17 29 29 28
DRPM -0.29 -1.42 -0.95 -0.60 0.07 DRPM -0.33 -1.22 1.16 -0.85 -0.36

Brooklyn Nets

If this game would have been played on opening night, the Nets would have likely been 18-point underdogs. Brooklyn has played better than we expected, while Cleveland has racked up some bad losses. This game still has blowout potential, but the Cavaliers have blown very few teams out so far this season. If it stays close, it should be a fantasy goldmine, as both teams are ranked in the bottom three in points allowed per game.

There isn’t a single position that the Cavaliers defend well and the highest DRPM of any of their starters is 0.07 (Kevin Love). We can attack Cleveland a number of ways, but my favorite is with Spencer Dinwiddie. He has shined in D’Angelo Russell’s absence, averaging 32 minutes and 41 fantasy points in his last three games. The Cavaliers do not have a true point guard that sees more than a few minutes per night, which makes it tough to defend opposing point guards. Even at his elevated price, Dinwiddie makes an excellent play in tournaments.

Allen Crabbe minutes and production are both up over the last week of play, but he’s a volatile player in a 14 game slate. While he may pop in most projection models, we have to consider a player’s floor, not just their median projection. For that reason, he’s a fade for me tonight. DeMarre Carroll stands out as a nice play, but he’s typically the first Nets’ player on the bench in blowouts. That’s a little concerning tonight, as the Nets are double-digit underdogs.

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson has been quiet recently, but the Cavaliers don’t defend the paint well and are an average rebounding team. If Trevor Booker is unable to suit up, RHJ could play 30-32 minutes in a great matchup. If Booker is active, he becomes an interesting value at power forward. He averages close to a fantasy point per minute and played 26 and 27 minutes in the two games prior to hurting his ankle.

Notable Injuries

D’Angelo Russell (Out)
Trevor Booker (Questionable)

Brooklyn Nets Offense

Points Per Game: 110.6 (4 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 109.0 (6 of 28)
Projected Point Differential: -1.6 (20 of 28)

Matchup vs. Cleveland Cavaliers

Points Allowed Per Game: 110.8 (28 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 109.4 (30 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.3 (14 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.7 (13 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L3 +/- Minutes L3 +/- FP/Min True Usage TS% Opp. DvP Opp. DRPM
Spencer Dinwiddie $7,600 $6,300 $13,400 25.8 15.1 24.3 8.0 1.06 22.3% 54.6% 23 -0.29
Allen Crabbe $5,600 $4,600 $8,800 21.3 8.8 26.9 5.5 0.79 16.4% 57.0% 25 -1.42
DeMarre Carroll $5,800 $5,300 $10,400 27.9 -1.4 29.0 1.4 0.96 17.2% 56.8% 19 -0.95
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson $7,200 $6,400 $12,400 28.3 -0.8 28.3 2.2 1.00 18.4% 56.8% 17 -0.60
Trevor Booker $5,400 $4,800 $9,000 20.5 -4.3 21.7 -0.5 0.94 18.7% 53.3% 20 0.07
Caris LeVert $4,600 $4,100 $8,000 21.8 1.5 25.4 -3.5 0.86 18.6% 47.0% N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Spencer Dinwiddie (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Spencer Dinwiddie (Cash), Allen Crabbe, DeMarre Carroll, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Trevor Booker (if active)


Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cavaliers are finally starting to find a groove, winning five games in a row and coming off of a nice blowout win over the Pistons in Detroit. They draw the best matchup possible tonight, as they host a Nets’ team that is ranked first in pace of play and 29th in points allowed per game. The double-digit spread is a little worrisome, but the upside outweighs the risk, especially in tournaments. The Cavaliers have an implied total of 119 points, which is the highest on the slate and eight points above their season average.

I shouldn’t have to tell you that LeBron James and Kevin Love are both excellent plays tonight. If this game stays close and they see their usual complement of minutes, there is a decent chance that they both reach and exceed value. The big question is whether or not we can play the role players from Cleveland. J.R. Smith is cheap and could catch fire against a bad defense, Jae Crowder has been quiet, but is only $3,800 on DraftKings, and Dwyane Wade is averaging 34 fantasy points in his last three games. You can make a serious argument for any of the five Cavaliers that I have mentioned and we can lock and load LeBron in all formats.

Notable Injuries

Tristan Thompson (Out)
Iman Shumpert (Out)

Cleveland Cavaliers Offense

Points Per Game: 110.9 (3 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 119.0 (1 of 28)
Projected Point Differential: 8.1 (3 of 28)

Matchup vs. Brooklyn Nets

Points Allowed Per Game: 113.9 (29 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.1 (26 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.1 (24 of 30)
Pace of Play: 107.0 (1 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L3 +/- Minutes L3 +/- FP/Min True Usage TS% Opp. DvP Opp. DRPM
Jose Calderon $3,000 $3,000 $6,100 5.3 8.4 9.5 9.9 0.55 12.8% 66.6% 28 -0.33
J.R. Smith $4,300 $4,200 $8,700 16.5 1.1 29.9 1.3 0.55 12.5% 46.4% 17 -1.22
LeBron James $12,000 $11,400 $20,900 52.7 -1.6 37.9 -1.2 1.39 29.2% 65.8% 29 1.16
Jae Crowder $4,300 $3,800 $7,800 16.0 2.0 26.4 0.3 0.60 14.0% 51.9% 29 -0.85
Kevin Love $8,000 $7,900 $14,600 35.4 4.6 29.7 2.1 1.19 21.9% 60.7% 28 -0.36
Dwyane Wade $6,500 $5,400 $9,500 23.6 10.6 22.8 2.5 1.03 22.2% 47.1% N/A N/A

Elite Plays – LeBron James, Kevin Love

Secondary Plays – J.R. Smith (GPP), Jae Crowder (DK), Dwyane Wade (DK)


Washington Wizards at Charlotte Hornets – 7:00 PM ET

Washington Wizards Charlotte Hornets
Article Image Vegas Total 209.5 Article Image Vegas Total 209.5
Vegas Spread 2.5 Vegas Spread -2.5
Implied Team Total 103.5 Implied Team Total 106.0
Pace Projection +/- 1.0 Pace Projection +/- -0.5
Projected Starters John Wall Bradley Beal Otto Porter Markieff Morris Marcin Gortat Projected Starters Kemba Walker Nicolas Batum Michael Kidd-Gilchrist Marvin Williams Dwight Howard
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 19 23 20 10 12 DvP 15 4 30 6 5
DRPM -0.80 -0.34 1.00 0.57 2.12 DRPM -0.44 -0.34 1.91 1.00 0.60

Washington Wizards

If you have read the Grind Down before (at least on the days that I have written it), then you know that I like to downgrade teams that are facing the Hornets in Charlotte. Not only is their record much better at home, but so is their defense. They are holding opponents to 103.9 points per game in Charlotte, which is three points lower than what they allow on the road. The Wizards come into tonight’s game as 2.5-point underdogs with an implied total of only 103.5 points.

The Hornets have struggled to defend wing players this season, but we have to keep in mind that a lot of that production came with Jeremy Lamb and Dwayne Bacon on the floor. Nicolas Batum and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist are significantly better defenders, so I will be avoiding both Bradley Beal and Otto Porter. John Wall has scored at least 56 fantasy points in two of his last four meetings with Kemba Walker and draws the best individual matchup of the five starters. At a price of $8,700 on DraftKings, I have some serious interest, especially if his ownership is going to be low.

The Wizards have slowly increased the playing time for Markieff Morris, but he has yet to play more than 26 minutes in a game this season. With 13 other games on the schedule, we can find a safer option at power forward. Marcin Gortat is an intriguing play tonight. He is a streaky player that is finally back on the upswing. Over his last three games, he is averaging 33 fantasy points. He has played at least 28 minutes in each of his last four games against Dwight Howard.

Notable Injuries

None

Washington Wizards Offense

Points Per Game: 107.5 (11 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 103.5 (19 of 28)
Projected Point Differential: -4.0 (26 of 28)

Matchup vs. Charlotte Hornets

Points Allowed Per Game: 105.4 (15 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.3 (12 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.3 (8 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.6 (8 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L3 +/- Minutes L3 +/- FP/Min True Usage TS% Opp. DvP Opp. DRPM
John Wall $9,600 $8,700 $16,500 41.0 -19.1 33.9 -0.7 1.21 28.4% 53.1% 19 -0.80
Bradley Beal $7,700 $7,800 $14,000 37.2 -0.4 35.1 2.6 1.06 25.9% 59.4% 23 -0.34
Otto Porter $6,400 $6,100 $11,700 32.8 -6.9 33.5 1.5 0.98 15.8% 64.2% 20 1.00
Markieff Morris $4,700 $4,600 $9,500 18.1 1.9 21.5 3.9 0.84 18.7% 51.7% 10 0.57
Marcin Gortat $5,200 $5,100 $9,900 26.1 6.6 30.6 2.3 0.85 13.6% 57.7% 12 2.12
Kelly Oubre $4,000 $4,400 $8,600 21.9 -7.2 28.3 -6.9 0.77 14.6% 57.1% N/A N/A

Elite Plays – John Wall (DK), Marcin Gortat

Secondary Plays – John Wall (FD)


Charlotte Hornets

The Hornets continue to play well at home (6-2) and they continue to struggle on the road (1-7). They draw a fairly difficult matchup tonight against the Wizards, who are ranked above the league average in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. While the Hornets’ implied total isn’t the highest on the board, it’s nearly identical to their season average at 106 points.

Kemba Walker home/road splits might be exaggerated a bit (I haven’t helped the cause), but he does average nearly three more fantasy points per game at home throughout his career. He draws a nice matchup against John Wall, who has the lowest DRPM grades of any of the five Wizards’ starters. Walker doesn’t have a great track record against Wall in his career, but he did drop 57 fantasy points against him in their last meeting. Seeing as how Walker’s price is up and Wall’s price is down, I’m more inclined to play the buy-low game if I’m targeting a point guard in this one.

Nicolas Batum is only averaging 29 minutes per game on the season and draws a tough matchup against Otto Porter, who owns a 1.91 DRPM this season. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is intriguing on DraftKings, but only in tournaments. He is averaging 30 minutes in his last three games and should be defended by Bradley Beal. Trying to predict how to predict Dwight Howard is going to play every night is a losing proposition. In his last four games, he has scored 13, 20, 43, and 56 fantasy points. While I don’t love the volatility, I like targeting him against true centers that rarely leave the paint. Marcin Gortat fits the bill and Howard has performed well in this matchup in the past, topping 40 fantasy points in three of their last four meetings.

Notable Injuries

None

Charlotte Hornets Offense

Points Per Game: 105.5 (15 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 106.0 (12 of 28)
Projected Point Differential: 0.5 (12 of 28)

Matchup vs. Washington Wizards

Points Allowed Per Game: 102.9 (8 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.5 (8 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.7 (12 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.1 (14 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L3 +/- Minutes L3 +/- FP/Min True Usage TS% Opp. DvP Opp. DRPM
Kemba Walker $8,300 $8,000 $14,400 37.5 3.9 34.9 1.0 1.07 26.2% 60.0% 15 -0.44
Nicolas Batum $7,200 $6,300 $13,300 28.5 -1.5 28.9 -1.1 0.98 20.5% 54.7% 4 -0.34
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist $5,300 $4,100 $7,900 17.5 -0.8 23.1 7.1 0.76 13.2% 55.4% 30 1.91
Marvin Williams $4,700 $3,800 $7,300 17.8 -0.7 25.6 1.7 0.70 12.6% 58.0% 6 1.00
Dwight Howard $7,500 $6,700 $13,800 33.2 6.4 29.6 -0.4 1.12 18.7% 55.6% 5 0.60
Frank Kaminsky $3,800 $4,000 $7,700 19.4 -0.7 25.0 -4.7 0.78 19.1% 52.0% N/A N/A
Jeremy Lamb $5,100 $5,200 $10,200 28.6 -0.5 28.3 -5.9 1.01 22.0% 57.8% N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Dwight Howard (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Dwight Howard (Cash), Kemba Walker, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (DK)


Los Angeles Clippers at Atlanta Hawks – 7:30 PM ET

Los Angeles Clippers Atlanta Hawks
Article Image Vegas Total 209.0 Article Image Vegas Total 209.0
Vegas Spread -3.0 Vegas Spread 3.0
Implied Team Total 106.0 Implied Team Total 103.0
Pace Projection +/- 0.3 Pace Projection +/- -0.9
Projected Starters Sindarius Thornwell Austin Rivers Wesley Johnson Blake Griffin DeAndre Jordan Projected Starters Dennis Schroder Kent Bazemore Taurean Prince Ersan Ilyasova Dewayne Dedmon
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 17 30 23 26 19 DvP 8 22 24 19 26
DRPM -2.80 0.53 -0.05 1.25 0.91 DRPM -0.37 -1.13 -0.06 -0.59 1.20

Los Angeles Clippers

The Clippers are going to be short-handed again tonight, as Patrick Beverley and Danilo Gallinari have already been ruled out. Luckily, this is still a winnable game for Los Angeles, as they take on a Hawks’ team that has the worst record in the Eastern Conference. This is also a favorable matchup for fantasy production, as the Hawks are ranked 11th in pace of play and 24th in rebounding differential. Despite missing two starters, the Clippers still have an implied total of 106 points.

Sindarius Thornwell is going to draw another start at point guard, but he’s my least favorite guard from the Clippers tonight. Austin Rivers will play at least 35 minutes in a dream matchup and Lou Williams should see minutes in the 30s as well. Williams is a core play for me on FanDuel ($5,400) and even though the revenge may have worn off after playing for a few different teams, he did spend a couple of seasons with the Hawks. Wesley Johnson is averaging 33 minutes and 34 fantasy points in his last three games and is still only $3,800 on DraftKings. If you need value at SF/PF, Johnson is one of the better ones available tonight.

I keep waiting for a monster game from Blake Griffin. He has yet to score more than 53 fantasy points in a game this season, despite an increased usage rate without Chris Paul on the team. I don’t like to make bold predictions very often, but I’m calling for a season high in fantasy points from Griffin tonight. The Hawks are ranked 26th against power forwards and 27th in rebounding differential. DeAndre Jordan has a slightly more difficult matchup against Dewayne Dedmon. While Jordan can have big outings every now and then, I like centers that are a little more involved offensively.

Notable Injuries

Patrick Beverley (Out)
Danilo Gallinari (Out)

Los Angeles Clippers Offense

Points Per Game: 104.9 (16 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 106.0 (12 of 28)
Projected Point Differential: 1.1 (11 of 28)

Matchup vs. Atlanta Hawks

Points Allowed Per Game: 107.8 (24 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.4 (21 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.7 (27 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.9 (11 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L3 +/- Minutes L3 +/- FP/Min True Usage TS% Opp. DvP Opp. DRPM
Sindarius Thornwell $3,700 $3,200 $6,300 9.6 2.1 17.1 8.8 0.56 12.2% 54.6% 17 -2.80
Austin Rivers $4,800 $5,100 $9,900 22.5 -4.2 32.8 0.9 0.68 18.6% 46.9% 30 0.53
Wesley Johnson $4,600 $3,800 $7,400 18.2 15.5 22.9 10.0 0.80 11.8% 54.6% 23 -0.05
Blake Griffin $8,900 $9,300 $16,500 40.4 0.5 35.5 1.5 1.14 27.8% 53.4% 26 1.25
DeAndre Jordan $7,600 $7,000 $13,200 31.3 6.0 32.4 3.1 0.97 10.6% 64.3% 19 0.91
Lou Williams $5,400 $7,100 $12,400 26.3 -3.5 27.3 3.6 0.96 25.4% 57.5% N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Lou Williams (FD), Wesley Johnson (DK), Blake Griffin

Secondary Plays – Austin Rivers, Lou Williams (DK), Wesley Johnson (FD)


Atlanta Hawks

The Hawks have won three games on the season, but come into tonight’s game as only 3-point underdogs. When I first glanced at the schedule for tonight, I didn’t expect much from this game, but diving into it a little deeper, this is actually one of my favorite games to stack. The spread is close, the rotations are condensed, and the total is set at 209 points. The Hawks have an implied total of 103 points, which is slightly above their season average.

With Patrick Beverley out, we can fire up Dennis Schroder in all formats. His peripheral statistics haven’t been great this season, but he owns a 29% true usage and he has three winnable matchups against the likes of Austin Rivers, Sindarius Thornwell, and Lou Williams. With Luke Babbitt and Mike Muscala out tonight, there are a lot of minutes available in this rotation. If the Hawks decide to play small at times, we could see a few extra minutes for Kent Bazemore, who makes sense in large-field tournaments.

Ersan Ilyasova will draw the start at the four, but the biggest boost should go to Taurean Prince and John Collins. Prince’s minutes and production are both trending up and he is very affordable on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Collins has been per-minute monster this season and is finally starting to see an increase in playing time, averaging 28 minutes over his last three games. Dewayne Dedmon could see a few extra minutes as well, but I’ll take Marcin Gortat over him at a similar price point.

Notable Injuries

Mike Muscala (Out)
Luke Babbitt (Out)

Atlanta Hawks Offense

Points Per Game: 102.8 (21 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 103.0 (21 of 28)
Projected Point Differential: 0.2 (13 of 28)

Matchup vs. Los Angeles Clippers

Points Allowed Per Game: 106.6 (19 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.2 (20 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.3 (14 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.7 (17 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L3 +/- Minutes L3 +/- FP/Min True Usage TS% Opp. DvP Opp. DRPM
Dennis Schroder $7,300 $6,700 $12,900 34.4 0.2 32.3 -1.1 1.07 28.7% 52.9% 8 -0.37
Kent Bazemore $6,000 $5,500 $10,900 28.9 -4.3 28.7 -2.4 1.01 21.2% 51.1% 22 -1.13
Taurean Prince $5,700 $5,000 $9,700 27.3 4.5 32.1 2.5 0.85 17.0% 54.2% 24 -0.06
Ersan Ilyasova $4,100 $3,900 $9,000 15.5 -5.6 20.4 -7.7 0.76 13.8% 36.2% 19 -0.59
Dewayne Dedmon $5,500 $5,300 $9,900 24.7 8.7 24.1 0.4 1.02 14.5% 66.0% 26 1.20
John Collins $5,200 $4,600 $9,500 24.1 4.7 22.2 5.6 1.08 18.3% 60.4% N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Dennis Schroder, Taurean Prince, John Collins (GPP)

Secondary Plays – John Collins (GPP)


Boston Celtics at Miami Heat – 7:30 PM ET

Boston Celtics Miami Heat
Article Image Vegas Total 196.0 Article Image Vegas Total 196.0
Vegas Spread -3.0 Vegas Spread 3.0
Implied Team Total 99.5 Implied Team Total 96.5
Pace Projection +/- -1.5 Pace Projection +/- -1.8
Projected Starters Kyrie Irving Jaylen Brown Jayson Tatum Marcus Morris Al Horford Projected Starters Goran Dragic Dion Waiters Josh Richardson Justise Winslow Hassan Whiteside
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 9 11 5 23 3 DvP 3 1 18 3 2
DRPM -1.21 -0.67 1.51 0.08 2.71 DRPM 0.51 1.20 1.02 0.35 2.48

Boston Celtics

We go from one of my favorite games in the Clippers-Hawks (still sounds weird) to one of my least favorite in the Celtics-Heat. Both of these teams are ranked in the bottom half of the league in pace of play and in the top half in points allowed per game. I often talk about finding good game environments for fantasy production and this one doesn’t look like it fits the mold. The Celtics have an implied total of only 99.5 points, which is the fourth lowest on the board and three points below their season average.

Kyrie Irving has been on a tear recently and for some odd reason, the sites haven’t adjusted his salary. Over his last three games, he is averaging 34 minutes and 46 fantasy points per contest. He draws the best matchup of the five starters and is the one and only Celtics’ player on my radar tonight. Goran Dragic is not a good defender (-1.21 DRPM) and Irving’s upside isn’t really impacted by the fact that the Heat have one of the best rim protectors in basketball. The rest of the Celtics can be avoided in the biggest slate of the year.

Notable Injuries

None

Boston Celtics Offense

Points Per Game: 102.9 (20 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 99.5 (25 of 28)
Projected Point Differential: -3.4 (24 of 28)

Matchup vs. Miami Heat

Points Allowed Per Game: 103.1 (9 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.9 (14 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.4 (20 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.1 (19 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L3 +/- Minutes L3 +/- FP/Min True Usage TS% Opp. DvP Opp. DRPM
Kyrie Irving $8,000 $8,200 $15,400 38.2 7.7 31.5 3.2 1.21 28.9% 58.2% 9 -1.21
Jaylen Brown $6,700 $6,500 $12,100 28.6 7.8 32.6 3.0 0.88 18.8% 56.4% 11 -0.67
Jayson Tatum $5,700 $5,800 $11,500 26.6 3.3 30.3 0.9 0.88 15.9% 62.9% 5 1.51
Marcus Morris $4,800 $4,900 $9,500 23.7 2.0 23.7 2.0 1.00 20.9% 56.3% 23 0.08
Al Horford $7,000 $7,100 $13,200 32.9 -5.6 32.6 2.9 1.01 17.0% 64.8% 3 2.71
Marcus Smart $5,200 $5,300 $9,900 25.9 -2.4 30.6 0.2 0.85 19.5% 39.5% N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Kyrie Irving (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Kyrie Irving (Cash)


Miami Heat

The Heat draw one of the worst possible matchups, as they face a Celtics’ team that has won 16 games in a row. Whenever we have two defensive-minded teams squaring off, we can expect a low scoring game. The total for this game is set at a whopping 196 points. Boston is currently ranked first or second in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Heat’s implied total of 96.5 points is the third lowest on the board and four points below their season average.

All five of the Celtics’ starters have positive DRPM grades this season and as a team, they are ranked third or better in fantasy points allowed to point guards, shooting guards, power forwards, and centers. We used to be able to attack Boston with centers, but that hasn’t been the case this season. We can afford to be picky in a slate this size, so I won’t be forcing any of the Heat players into my lineups. In fact, I can safely say that I will be fading Miami completely.

Notable Injuries

Josh Richardson (Questionable)

Miami Heat Offense

Points Per Game: 100.3 (25 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 96.5 (26 of 28)
Projected Point Differential: -3.8 (25 of 28)

Matchup vs. Boston Celtics

Points Allowed Per Game: 94.8 (1 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 95.8 (1 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 5.7 (2 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.8 (20 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L3 +/- Minutes L3 +/- FP/Min True Usage TS% Opp. DvP Opp. DRPM
Goran Dragic $6,300 $6,400 $12,000 31.0 -7.0 34.1 -1.1 0.91 23.6% 55.5% 3 0.51
Dion Waiters $5,500 $5,500 $12,000 24.5 -4.8 31.6 -0.6 0.77 23.2% 48.5% 1 1.20
Josh Richardson $4,400 $4,500 $8,400 21.0 -5.1 33.2 -0.1 0.63 14.0% 47.8% 18 1.02
Justise Winslow $4,100 $4,200 $8,200 18.7 3.2 23.6 -2.4 0.79 14.3% 47.4% 3 0.35
Hassan Whiteside $8,800 $8,600 $15,700 39.8 -1.6 28.2 0.9 1.41 19.5% 61.4% 2 2.48
James Johnson $5,500 $5,600 $12,200 27.9 -7.8 28.1 0.2 0.99 19.0% 59.9% N/A N/A
Tyler Johnson $4,300 $4,100 $7,900 19.4 -0.6 27.8 -1.7 0.70 17.4% 47.5% N/A N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None


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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on Twitter – @RG_Notorious