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NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, November 4th - Page Two

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2015-11-04 22:32:49

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Brooklyn at Atlanta – 8:00 PM

Brooklyn Atlanta
brooklynnba Vegas Total 196.0 atlantanba Vegas Total 196.0
Vegas Sprd 8.5 Vegas Sprd -8.5
Team Proj. 93.8 Team Proj. 102.3
Team Pace 95.90 Team Pace 99.80
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Jarrett Jack Markel Brown Joe Johnson Thaddeus Young Brook Lopez Proj. Starter Jeff Teague Kent Bazemore Kyle Korver Paul Millsap Al Horford
Opp. Season 9 13 27 14 20 Opp. Season 19 19 20 10 8
Opp. Last 7 9 13 27 14 20 Opp. Last 7 19 19 20 10 8

Brooklyn

The Nets are one of four remaining teams that have yet to pick up a win this season. They have a good chance of falling to 0-5 tonight, as they have to face a very good Hawks’ team on their home floor.

The Hawks haven’t been incredibly efficient defensively this season, but they have improved in their last couple of games. They have still held their opponents to the eighth fewest points per game. The Nets are large underdogs tonight in this matchup and with a low implied team total of 93.8 points, there isn’t a ton of fantasy appeal here. Jarrett Jack is a decent play at point guard, but with a full slate of games, there are plenty of better plays at the position.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Jarrett Jack

FD: $6,300 — DK: $6,000
Min/Game: 32.0 — Usage: 25.4
FP/Game: 26.5 — FP/Min: 0.83

Atlanta

After losing their season opener to the Pistons, the Hawks have won four straight games. They will look to increase that win streak tonight against the winless Nets. There are a few decent fantasy options here, but this game has one of the lowest totals on the board tonight. Add in a potential blowout and it only makes matters worse.

On paper, the Hawks draw a terrific matchup against the Nets. On the season, Brooklyn is ranked 22nd in points allowed per game, 27th in defensive efficiency, and 20th in rebounding differential. The Hawks have an implied team total of 102.3 points, but I am concerned about this matchup for two reasons. First and foremost, this game could easily turn into a blowout. Second and fifthmost (see what I did there), the Hawks are a well-balanced offense that gets production from all five starters. Paul Millsap and Kent Bazemore are both in play here, but I see them as secondary plays tonight.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Paul Millsap

FD: $7,900 — DK: $7,900
Min/Game: 36.0 — Usage: 20.3
FP/Game: 36.3 — FP/Min: 1.01

Kent Bazemore

FD: $4,700 — DK: $4,200
Min/Game: 28.0 — Usage: 17.6
FP/Game: 21.5 — FP/Min: 0.77

Orlando at Houston – 8:00 PM

Orlando Houston
orlandonba Vegas Total 208.0 houstonnba Vegas Total 208.0
Vegas Sprd 8.0 Vegas Sprd -8.0
Team Proj. 100.0 Team Proj. 108.0
Team Pace 102.90 Team Pace 102.00
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Elfrid Payton Victor Oladipo Evan Fournier Tobias Harris Nikola Vucevic Proj. Starter Ty Lawson James Harden Trevor Ariza Terrence Jones Dwight Howard
Opp. Season 21 24 22 29 24 Opp. Season 26 9 17 11 4
Opp. Last 7 21 24 22 29 24 Opp. Last 7 26 9 17 11 4

Orlando

The Magic are a fun team to watch. They picked up their first win of the season last night against the Pelicans. While they still have a long way to go on the defensive end of the floor, they have to be happy with what they have been able to do offensively. They may be large underdogs tonight on the road, but there should be a ton of points scored between these two fast-paced teams.

On paper, the Magic draw a terrific matchup against the Rockets, who are ranked 25th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Rockets are a much better team defensively with Dwight Howard in the lineup though, and he is expected to play tonight. The Magic are still in a good spot though, as they have an implied team total of 100 points.

When the Magic find themselves in a favorable matchup, all five starters are usually in play. Elfrid Payton has been a disappointment thus far though and with his minutes diminishing the last few games, we may want to avoid him for now. Nikola Vucevic is another player that I’m a bit wary of tonight. He matches up with Howard, who is still one of the better low post defenders. Victor Oladipo, Evan Fournier, and Tobias Harris are all in play though. For whatever reason, Fournier was vastly under-owned last night. He is still too cheap for a player that that plays 35+ minutes and is so involved offensively.

Elite Plays

Evan Fournier

FD: $4,500 — DK: $4,400
Min/Game: 37.0 — Usage: 20.7
FP/Game: 29.5 — FP/Min: 0.80

Secondary Plays

Victor Oladipo

FD: $8,100 — DK: $7,700
Min/Game: 40.0 — Usage: 20.5
FP/Game: 37.5 — FP/Min: 0.94

Tobias Harris

FD: $6,900 — DK: $6,400
Min/Game: 32.0 — Usage: 24.2
FP/Game: 29.6 — FP/Min: 0.93

Houston

The Rockets are 1-3 to start the season. Their slow start can be attributed to two things: James Harden shooting woes and injuries. Donatas Motiejunas, Dwight Howard, and Terrence Jones have all missed at least two of their first four games. Motiejunas and Jones are both expected to be out again tonight, but Howard should be in the starting lineup against the Magic.

The Magic are currently ranked tenth in defensive efficiency this season, but I’m not buying it. Plus, even ranked tenth, they have still allowed the 11th most points per game and the sixth most fantasy points per game thanks to their fast pace of play. The Rockets have an implied team total of 108.0 points tonight, which is the third highest on the schedule.

James Harden finally broke out of his shooting slump with a 37 point outing against the Thunder. If you read the Grind Down that day, then you would have continued to target the beard, as it was only a matter of time before his shot started to fall. Harden should be able to attack the rim with ease tonight against the Magic in a game that will largely be played in transition. Marcus Thornton has provided nice value as a starter and there is no reason to think that it won’t continue tonight. Trevor Ariza and Corey Brewer are also in play at small forward.

Elite Plays

James Harden

FD: $9,900 — DK: $10,000
Min/Game: 38.0 — Usage: 31.6
FP/Game: 41.8 — FP/Min: 1.10

Marcus Thornton

FD: $3,900 — DK: $3,500
Min/Game: 34.0 — Usage: 20.8
FP/Game: 23.7 — FP/Min: 0.70

Secondary Plays

Trevor Ariza

FD: $5,600 — DK: $5,400
Min/Game: 35.0 — Usage: 15.3
FP/Game: 19.7 — FP/Min: 0.56

Corey Brewer

FD: $4,100 — DK: $4,200
Min/Game: 26.0 — Usage: 20.9
FP/Game: 20.5 — FP/Min: 0.79

Sacramento at Phoenix – 9:00 PM

Sacramento Phoenix
sacramentonba Vegas Total 207.0 phoenixnba Vegas Total 207.0
Vegas Sprd 9.0 Vegas Sprd -9.0
Team Proj. 99.0 Team Proj. 108.0
Team Pace 105.70 Team Pace 103.10
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Rajon Rondo Ben McLemore Rudy Gay Kosta Koufos Willie Cauley-Stein Proj. Starter Eric Bledsoe Brandon Knight P.J. Tucker Markieff Morris Tyson Chandler
Opp. Season 16 8 16 23 2 Opp. Season 25 11 2 24 30
Opp. Last 7 16 8 16 23 2 Opp. Last 7 25 11 2 24 30

Sacramento

The Kings had a tough time getting anything going offensively last night against the Grizzlies. Without DeMarcus Cousins, Memphis was able to focus all of their attention on Rudy Gay. Cousins will be out again tonight, but the Kings should have an easier time scoring against the Suns.

The Suns have improved their play on the defensive end of the floor this season, but they aren’t a team that we necessarily have to avoid taking players against. The Kings have an implied team total of 99 points, which is pretty high considering the fact that Cousins is out. That production is going to have to come from somewhere.

I expect it to be a high-volume, high-output game from Rudy Gay. There is some concern with the Kings in a back-to-back, but Gay has tremendous upside in this matchup. Kosta Koufos and Willie Cauley-Stein are both in play down low. Koufos would have had more minutes that Cauley-Stein last night if he didn’t get into foul trouble. He is the preferred play of the two tonight. Rajon Rondo has been hit or miss this season, but we don’t mind taking those boom or bust players in tournaments.

Elite Plays

Rudy Gay

FD: $7,900 — DK: $7,600
Min/Game: 31.0 — Usage: 25.8
FP/Game: 31.2 — FP/Min: 1.01

Kosta Koufos

FD: $3,800 — DK: $4,000
Min/Game: 25.0 — Usage: 13.2
FP/Game: 20.4 — FP/Min: 0.82

Secondary Plays

Rajon Rondo

FD: $6,400 — DK: $6,400
Min/Game: 27.0 — Usage: 22.9
FP/Game: 28.3 — FP/Min: 1.05

Willie Cauley-Stein

FD: $5,200 — DK: $4,600
Min/Game: 24.0 — Usage: 13.1
FP/Game: 21.6 — FP/Min: 0.90

Phoenix

The Suns are 2-2 to start the season, but they have a good chance to get back above .500 with a win over the Kings tonight at home. This is a matchup between two very fast-paced teams, which should result in one of the highest scoring games of the night.

The Suns draw one of the best matchups on the board tonight, as the Kings are ranked 23rd or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game this season. Phoenix has an implied team total of 108.0 points, which is tied for the third highest on the schedule tonight.

There is some concern that this game will turn into a blowout. The Kings are playing in the second half of a back-to-back and they are without their best player in DeMarcus Cousins. In my eyes, that makes the Suns risky fantasy options in cash games. Eric Bledsoe, Brandon Knight, Markieff Morris, and Tyson Chandler are all in favorable matchups, but I have a hard time taking the risk on any Suns’ players in cash games.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Eric Bledsoe

FD: $7,900 — DK: $7,700
Min/Game: 34.0 — Usage: 27.3
FP/Game: 35.9 — FP/Min: 1.06

Brandon Knight

FD: $7,000 — DK: $6,700
Min/Game: 36.0 — Usage: 23.0
FP/Game: 33.9 — FP/Min: 0.94

Tyson Chandler

FD: $6,100 — DK: $5,800
Min/Game: 28.0 — Usage: 13.8
FP/Game: 26.9 — FP/Min: 0.96

Markieff Morris

FD: $5,900 — DK: $6,200
Min/Game: 26.0 — Usage: 28.0
FP/Game: 23.4 — FP/Min: 0.90

Portland at Utah – 9:00 PM

Portland Utah
portlandnba Vegas Total 189.0 utahnba Vegas Total 189.0
Vegas Sprd 5.5 Vegas Sprd -5.5
Team Proj. 91.8 Team Proj. 97.3
Team Pace 103.50 Team Pace 93.90
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Damian Lillard C.J. McCollum Al-Farouq Aminu Meyers Leonard Mason Plumlee Proj. Starter Raul Neto Rodney Hood Gordon Hayward Derrick Favors Rudy Gobert
Opp. Season 3 3 9 1 3 Opp. Season 29 28 1 7 16
Opp. Last 7 3 3 9 1 3 Opp. Last 7 29 28 1 7 16

Portland

The Blazers are 2-2 to start the season, with wins over the T-Wolves and the Pelicans. Tonight may be their toughest test yet, as they have to face a talented Jazz team on their home floor. This will be a pace-down game for Portland, as the Jazz have averaged an NBA-low 93.9 possessions per game this season.

The Jazz play at the slowest pace of any team and they are ranked first in defensive efficiency. It should not come as a surprise to see that they are also ranked first in both points allowed per game and fantasy points allowed per game. Whenever I see the Jazz on the schedule, I immediately rule out any player that is facing them. I’m as high on Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum as the next guy, but I will be avoiding both tonight against this stifling defense. And hey, if you don’t trust me, trust Vegas. There is a reason why the Blazers have the lowest implied team total on the board tonight.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

NONE

Utah

The Jazz are 2-1 to start the season and if they continue to play defense like they have, they could realistically find themselves in the playoffs this year. They have a solid young core group of players that is only going to get better as the season progresses. Every game for the Jazz is technically a pace-up game, but this one especially, as the Blazers have averaged 103.5 possessions per game this season.

On paper, this is about as mediocre of a matchup as you are going to find. The Blazers are ranked between 11th and 16th in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game this season. While the Jazz are only projected to score 97.3 points tonight, that is still higher than their season average.

It’s hard to be particularly high on any individual player on a team that plays at such a slow pace, but Rodney Hood is cheap enough that he deserves consideration as an elite play. He has averaged 23.9 fantasy points per game this season with a usage rate of 26.6. Derrick Favors is currently questionable for tonight’s game with flu-like symptoms. If he is unable to go, fire up the Stifle Tower.

Elite Plays

Rodney Hood

FD: $4,500 — DK: $4,600
Min/Game: 27.0 — Usage: 26.6
FP/Game: 23.9 — FP/Min: 0.89

Secondary Plays

Rudy Gobert

FD: $8,100 — DK: $7,000
Min/Game: 33.0 — Usage: 11.8
FP/Game: 32.2 — FP/Min: 0.98

L.A. Clippers at Golden State – 10:30 PM

L.A. Clippers Golden State
laclippersnba Vegas Total 218.0 goldenstatenba Vegas Total 218.0
Vegas Sprd 7.5 Vegas Sprd -7.5
Team Proj. 105.3 Team Proj. 112.8
Team Pace 103.70 Team Pace 104.70
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Chris Paul J.J. Redick Lance Stephenson Blake Griffin DeAndre Jordan Proj. Starter Stephen Curry Klay Thompson Harrison Barnes Draymond Green Festus Ezeli
Opp. Season 13 10 4 9 21 Opp. Season 20 7 14 16 23
Opp. Last 7 13 10 4 9 21 Opp. Last 7 20 7 14 16 23

L.A. Clippers

We go from the game with the lowest total of the night to the game with the highest total of the night. The Clippers are looking to at least give the Warriors a fight, as Golden State has been blowing teams out left and right. The Warriors are sizable favorites here, but hopefully we see a good game between the two remaining unbeatens in the West.

Even though the Warriors play at one of the fastest paces in the NBA, they are still an elite team defensively. On the season, they are ranked fifth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Clippers have an implied team total of 105.3 points which seems high, but that is actually lower than their average on the season.

This is one of those matchups that you need to be careful with. Not only do the Warriors have one of the best defenses in the NBA, but they have a habit of making good teams look awful, especially when they play at home. Blake Griffin and Chris Paul are both borderline elite plays, but I have a hard time paying a premium for players in difficult matchups. The Clippers will have plenty of possessions, I’m just not sure how efficient they will be offensively. Plus, Griffin will have to deal with these shenanigans.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Blake Griffin

FD: $10,000 — DK: $9,600
Min/Game: 34.0 — Usage: 31.4
FP/Game: 46.4 — FP/Min: 1.36

Chris Paul

FD: $9,300 — DK: $9,400
Min/Game: 33.0 — Usage: 23.3
FP/Game: 31.9 — FP/Min: 0.97

Golden State

The Warriors are too good. They are putting up video game-like numbers this season. They are 4-0 with an average margin of victory of 25 points. Despite all of the blowouts, their players have still managed to be extremely productive (see: Stephen Curry). They will look to keep their unbeaten streak alive tonight against the Clippers.

The Clippers have been decent on the defensive end of the floor this season, but they haven’t had to face an offense the caliber of the Warriors. Based on the line and total, Golden State has an implied team total of 112.8 points, which is the highest of any team on the schedule tonight.

Stephen Curry has had a 20+ point quarter in three of the first four games of the season. If you took him the other night against the Grizzlies, you were probably very disappointed until he went bonkers in the third quarter. He makes some of the toughest shots you will ever see and he does it on a regular basis. Even though Chris Paul is a very good defender, Curry is still an elite play tonight at home. Festus Ezeli would become a nice value play again if Andrew Bogut (questionable) is unable to suit up tonight. Draymond Green, Klay Thompson, and Harrison Barnes are secondary options.

Elite Plays

Stephen Curry

FD: $10,800 — DK: $10,100
Min/Game: 32.0 — Usage: 34.3
FP/Game: 55.9 — FP/Min: 1.75

Festus Ezeli

FD: $3,500 — DK: $4,100
Min/Game: 19.0 — Usage: 19.8
FP/Game: 20.9 — FP/Min: 1.10

Secondary Plays

Draymond Green

FD: $7,800 — DK: $7,100
Min/Game: 31.0 — Usage: 17.0
FP/Game: 32.4 — FP/Min: 1.05

Klay Thompson

FD: $6,700 — DK: $7,000
Min/Game: 26.0 — Usage: 22.5
FP/Game: 20.9 — FP/Min: 0.80

Harrison Barnes

FD: $4,800 — DK: $5,000
Min/Game: 28.0 — Usage: 17.0
FP/Game: 21.3 — FP/Min: 0.76

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious