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NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, November 4th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2015-11-05 23:04:40

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

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San Antonio at Washington – 7:00 PM

San Antonio Washington
sanantonionba Vegas Total 200.5 washingtonnba Vegas Total 200.5
Vegas Sprd -4.0 Vegas Sprd 4.0
Team Proj. 102.3 Team Proj. 98.3
Team Pace 99.30 Team Pace 104.90
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Tony Parker Danny Green Kawhi Leonard LaMarcus Aldridge Tim Duncan Proj. Starter John Wall Brad Beal Otto Porter Kris Humphries Marcin Gortat
Opp. Season 12 26 30 13 7 Opp. Season 17 1 11 2 17
Opp. Last 7 12 26 30 13 7 Opp. Last 7 17 1 11 2 17

San Antonio

The Spurs lost their season opener to the Thunder, but they have rebounded nicely with three wins in a row. They have held their opponents to under 90 points per game and they have been on the right side of a couple of blowouts. Tonight they head to Washington to take on the Wizards.

The Wizards don’t appear to be a bad matchup on paper, but they were one of the best defenses in the NBA last season and they are returning four of their five starters. You can argue that they actually should be better defensively with Otto Porter starting at the three instead of Paul Pierce. Even in a fairly difficult matchup, the Spurs still have an implied team total of 102.3 points. The biggest issue here is how well-balanced their offensive attack is on a nightly basis.

Kawhi Leonard has gotten off to a terrific start this season, scoring at least 32 fantasy points in all four games. He has played 33 minutes per game and has had a very high usage rate of 30.0. The addition of LaMarcus Aldridge has not impacted his role in the offense, at least not here in the early stages. Leonard remains an elite play, as he is still priced under $8,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Speaking of Aldridge, he is awfully cheap tonight on DraftKings. There are better plays in the points per dollar sense, but at that price, I may have him on a GPP lineup or two.

Elite Plays

Kawhi Leonard

FD: $7,900 — DK: $7,800
Min/Game: 33.0 — Usage: 30.0
FP/Game: 39.6 — FP/Min: 1.20

Secondary Plays

LaMarcus Aldridge

FD: $8,600 — DK: $7,200
Min/Game: 32.0 — Usage: 24.3
FP/Game: 31.3 — FP/Min: 0.98

Washington

The Wizards are 2-1 to start the season and if we have learned anything from their first few games, it’s that they are looking to push the pace. They have averaged nearly 105 possessions per game this season, which is the fourth-fastest pace of any team.

There are certain teams that we generally try to avoid taking players against, especially on nights like tonight that have a full slate of games. The Spurs are one of those teams, as they have an elite defense and they tend to blow a lot of teams out. On the season, San Antonio is ranked third or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Wizards have a low implied team total of 98.3 points, which is seven points lower than their average points scored per game this season.

John Wall and Bradley Beal should be heavily involved in the offense again tonight, but we could see inefficient games from both. Coach Popovich knows how to slow down his opponent’s best players and since we have nine other games on the schedule, I will not be forcing either Wall or Beal into my main cash game lineup. Even at home, I will have little exposure to the Wizards tonight.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

John Wall

FD: $9,400 — DK: $9,300
Min/Game: 36.0 — Usage: 26.8
FP/Game: 41.1 — FP/Min: 1.14

Brad Beal

FD: $7,200 — DK: $6,300
Min/Game: 35.0 — Usage: 29.9
FP/Game: 30.7 — FP/Min: 0.88

Boston at Indiana – 7:00 PM

Boston Indiana
bostonnba Vegas Total 204.5 indiananba Vegas Total 204.5
Vegas Sprd -2.0 Vegas Sprd 2.0
Team Proj. 103.3 Team Proj. 101.3
Team Pace 106.40 Team Pace 99.80
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Marcus Smart Avery Bradley Jae Crowder David Lee Tyler Zeller Proj. Starter George Hill Monta Ellis C.J. Miles Paul George Ian Mahinmi
Opp. Season 11 22 23 5 28 Opp. Season 5 30 19 11 14
Opp. Last 7 11 22 23 5 28 Opp. Last 7 5 30 19 11 14

Boston

The Celtics are 1-2 to start the season, after losing to the Raptors and Spurs in their last two games. They are one of my least favorite teams to see on the schedule, as they have one of the deepest rotations in the NBA. A deep rotation makes it hard to predict minutes on a nightly basis, which makes it hard to predict fantasy production. Avery Bradley is questionable for tonight’s game. If he is unable to play, Evan Turner could slide into the starting lineup.

The Celtics draw a decent matchup tonight against the Pacers, who are ranked 12th in points allowed per game, 17th in defensive efficiency, and 28th in rebounding differential. Boston has an implied team total of 103.3, which is actually the seventh highest on the schedule tonight. Even though their offense appears to be in a good spot, it’s difficult to predict where that production is going to come from. Jae Crowder has been a nice source of value in the early going, averaging 22.6 fantasy points per game at a price under $5,000. He is a secondary play tonight in Indiana. Evan Turner would also become a decent play if Avery Bradley is ruled out.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Evan Turner

FD: $5,700 — DK: $4,600
Min/Game: 22.0 — Usage: 19.1
FP/Game: 11.1 — FP/Min: 0.50

Jae Crowder

FD: $4,700 — DK: $4,500
Min/Game: 29.0 — Usage: 16.6
FP/Game: 22.6 — FP/Min: 0.78

Indiana

The Pacers picked up their first win of the season last night with an impressive win over the previously unbeaten Pistons. Indiana will try to fight their way closer to that .500 mark with a win tonight over the Celtics.

The Celtics have played good defense so far this season, ranking ninth in defensive efficiency. Their pace of play has hurt their fantasy points allowed though, as the Celtics have played at the fastest pace of any team in the NBA. That’s good news for the Pacers. Even though they are two-point underdogs in tonight’s matchup, there are better fantasy options here than there are on the Celtics.

Paul George has not shot the ball well from the floor this season (33%), but he has really produced in the peripheral categories. We like to target multi-dimensional players because they have the ability to contribute even when their shot isn’t falling. It’s only a matter of time before George starts knocking down shots and a fast paced game against the Celtics could be just what he needs to get going offensively. George Hill also deserves consideration as an elite play. He has played an astounding 38 minutes per game this season. I’m still not buying in on Monta Ellis or C.J. Miles, as both have relied on points for the majority of their fantasy production this season.

Elite Plays

Paul George

FD: $8,300 — DK: $8,000
Min/Game: 36.0 — Usage: 26.1
FP/Game: 33.9 — FP/Min: 0.94

George Hill

FD: $6,400 — DK: $6,200
Min/Game: 38.0 — Usage: 19.5
FP/Game: 26.3 — FP/Min: 0.69

Secondary Plays

NONE

New York at Cleveland – 8:00 PM

New York Cleveland
newyorknba Vegas Total 203.0 clevelandnba Vegas Total 203.0
Vegas Sprd 9.5 Vegas Sprd -9.5
Team Proj. 96.8 Team Proj. 106.3
Team Pace 102.10 Team Pace 98.10
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Jose Calderon Sasha Vujacic Carmelo Anthony Kristaps Porzingis Robin Lopez Proj. Starter Mo Williams Matthew Dellavedova LeBron James Kevin Love Timofey Mozgov
Opp. Season 6 16 3 4 11 Opp. Season 23 4 21 15 5
Opp. Last 7 6 16 3 4 11 Opp. Last 7 23 4 21 15 5

New York

The Knicks have started the season 2-2. While that may not look impressive, they have played much better than I would have thought heading into the season. Kristaps Porzingis is one of the most exciting young players to watch. If you don’t believe me, check out this DUNK over LaMarcus Aldridge. It doesn’t show this in the video, but I hear that Carmelo Anthony was asking for an assist on the play.

The Knicks draw an awful matchup tonight against the Cavaliers, who are ranked fourth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. New York is a 9.5-point underdog tonight and they have a low implied team total of 96.8 points. This is a great time to pull the complete fade. Kristaps Porzingis is the one Knicks’ player in tournaments, but make sure that he is in the lineup before employing him. He is probable, but he did hurt his neck against the Spurs the other night.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Kristaps Porzingis

FD: $4,800 — DK: $4,800
Min/Game: 24.0 — Usage: 24.4
FP/Game: 25.7 — FP/Min: 1.07

Cleveland

The Cavaliers are 3-1 to start the season with a positive point differential of 11.2. It’s clear that they are going to be a team to be reckoned with once again and they don’t even have Kyrie Irving back in the lineup yet. Cleveland can’t seem to shake the injury bug though, as now J.R. Smith has gone down with a knee injury. Richard Jefferson is expected to draw the start in his absence, but Matthew Dellavedova stands to be the biggest beneficiary.

The Cavaliers draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Knicks, who are ranked 20th in both points allowed per game and defensive efficiency this season. Cleveland has an implied team total of 106.3 points, but this game could easily turn into a rout at home. I generally try to avoid taking superstar players in potential blowouts, which takes LeBron James out of consideration in my eyes. Kevin Love is cheap enough that he still deserves a look. Mo Williams and Matthew Dellavedova are also in play, as both will play heavy minutes without Kyrie Irving and J.R. Smith.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Kevin Love

FD: $7,600 — DK: $7,600
Min/Game: 31.0 — Usage: 25.4
FP/Game: 36.4 — FP/Min: 1.17

Mo Williams

FD: $5,500 — DK: $5,500
Min/Game: 28.0 — Usage: 20.4
FP/Game: 23.1 — FP/Min: 0.83

Matthew Dellavedova

FD: $4,200 — DK: $3,800
Min/Game: 25.0 — Usage: 15.9
FP/Game: 23.5 — FP/Min: 0.94

Toronto at Oklahoma City – 8:00 PM

Toronto Oklahoma City
torontonba Vegas Total 210.5 oklahomacitynba Vegas Total 210.5
Vegas Sprd 8.5 Vegas Sprd -8.5
Team Proj. 101.0 Team Proj. 109.5
Team Pace 102.60 Team Pace 103.60
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Kyle Lowry DeMar DeRozan DeMarre Carroll Luis Scola Jonas Valanciunas Proj. Starter Russell Westbrook Andre Roberson Kevin Durant Serge Ibaka Steven Adams
Opp. Season 7 25 25 22 15 Opp. Season 15 17 10 3 27
Opp. Last 7 7 25 25 22 15 Opp. Last 7 15 17 10 3 27

Toronto

The Raptors picked up another win last night over the Mavericks, improving their record to 4-0 on the season. They are one of three remaining unbeaten teams in the NBA, but they will have their work cut out for them tonight.

The Thunder have that perfect combination of a fast pace and a below average defensive efficiency. When that happens, teams are going to give up a lot of fantasy points. On the season, Oklahoma City is ranked 28th in points allowed per game and 26th in fantasy points allowed per game. The Raptors may be 8.5-point underdogs here, but if they can keep it close, this game will be full of fantasy goodness.

Even though the Raptors are playing in the second half of a back-to-back, it shouldn’t impact the starter’s minutes too much. We could see Kyle Lowry playing a fewer minutes, but this is a spot where he should, in theory, have a big game. He is the motor of this offense and this game is expected to be played at a very fast pace. We don’t have to worry about DeMar DeRozan minutes in this one, as he was in foul trouble last night and only ended up playing 28 minutes against the Mavericks. Luis Scola is one player that I am worried about in a back-to-back set. He played 31 minutes on those old man legs last night.

Elite Plays

Kyle Lowry

FD: $7,800 — DK: $7,900
Min/Game: 35.0 — Usage: 23.0
FP/Game: 42.5 — FP/Min: 1.21

Secondary Plays

DeMar DeRozan

FD: $8,000 — DK: $7,400
Min/Game: 34.0 — Usage: 26.6
FP/Game: 33.6 — FP/Min: 0.99

Oklahoma City

The Thunder have been a fun team to watch this season. They are 3-1 to start the season and they are not winning with their play on the defensive end of the floor. Through their first four games, they have averaged 118.3 points per game, which is second only to the Warriors.

The Raptors have done a nice job defensively this season, ranking eighth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. That all goes out the window against the Thunder, though. They are so efficient offensively and they play at such a fast pace that I’m not worried about the matchup. Vegas seems to agree with me here, as they have an implied team total of 109.5 points, which is the second highest on the board.

Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant are both elite plays at their respective positions tonight. The issue hasn’t been productivity for those two, it has been their lack of minutes in blowouts. That is a concern again tonight, but hopefully the Raptors can keep this game within striking distance. Serge Ibaka is also worth a look as an elite play. With Scott Brooks gone, we no longer have to worry about his minutes. Under Billy Donovan, Iblocka (ee-block-uh) has played at least 31 minutes in every game so far this season. Even though all three players are listed as elite plays, you shouldn’t use all three together. You never want to have that much of your salary cap tied up in one team.

Elite Plays

Russell Westbrook

FD: $10,800 — DK: $10,500
Min/Game: 36.0 — Usage: 34.7
FP/Game: 52.1 — FP/Min: 1.45

Kevin Durant

FD: $10,000 — DK: $9,500
Min/Game: 38.0 — Usage: 28.7
FP/Game: 40.1 — FP/Min: 1.06

Serge Ibaka

FD: $7,100 — DK: $6,400
Min/Game: 33.0 — Usage: 18.0
FP/Game: 31.8 — FP/Min: 0.96

Secondary Plays

NONE

Philadelphia at Milwaukee – 8:00 PM

Philadelphia Milwaukee
philadelphianba Vegas Total 195.5 milwaukeenba Vegas Total 195.5
Vegas Sprd 10.0 Vegas Sprd -10.0
Team Proj. 92.8 Team Proj. 102.8
Team Pace 98.40 Team Pace 97.20
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Isaiah Canaan Nik Stauskas Hollis Thompson Nerlens Noel Jahlil Okafor Proj. Starter Jerryd Bayless Khris Middleton Giannis Antetokounmpo Jabari Parker Greg Monroe
Opp. Season 24 18 13 25 12 Opp. Season 18 14 24 27 22
Opp. Last 7 24 18 13 25 12 Opp. Last 7 18 14 24 27 22

Philadelphia

The Sixers will get a win eventually. It won’t be tonight against the Bucks, but they will get a win eventually.

In somewhat surprising fashion, the Bucks have been one of the worst defenses in the NBA this season. They were a top defense last season and they are now ranked 21st or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game this year. The Sixers implied team total may look low at 92.8 points, but that is actually four points higher than their average points scored this season.

Even though there is a good chance that the Sixers will be on the wrong end of another blowout, there are a few viable tournament plays here. Nerlens Noel, Jahlil Okafor, and Nik Stauskas – aka Sauce Castillo all offer great upside at their respective price points. Their minutes are less dependent on game flow, as the Sixers are looking to develop their players, not save them for the playoffs. All three are worth a look in tournaments and Stauskas is a decent cash game play as well.

Elite Plays

Nik Stauskas

FD: $3,800 — DK: $3,500
Min/Game: 25.0 — Usage: 20.6
FP/Game: 19.5 — FP/Min: 0.78

Secondary Plays

Nerlens Noel

FD: $7,500 — DK: $7,000
Min/Game: 35.0 — Usage: 22.4
FP/Game: 31.7 — FP/Min: 0.91

Jahlil Okafor

FD: $5,700 — DK: $6,100
Min/Game: 34.0 — Usage: 28.8
FP/Game: 26.4 — FP/Min: 0.78

Milwaukee

The Bucks are looking for their second win of the season tonight, as they host the visiting Sixers. Michael Carter-Williams is being listed as doubtful tonight, which opens the door for another big outing from Jerryd Bayless. While the Bucks lose one starter tonight, they get back another in Jabari Parker. He has been cleared to play tonight and will see 15-20 minutes of action.

The Bucks draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Sixers, who are ranked 24th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game this season. Milwaukee has an implied team total of 102.8 points, which is a few points higher than their season average.

While there is certainly some risk of this game turning into a blowout, it’s hard to ignore the potential reward. The Sixers give up fantasy points in bunches and the Bucks are full of viable fantasy options. Jerryd Bayless is arguably the best value play on the board tonight with Michael-Carter Williams out. Khris Middleton and Giannis Antetokounmpo are both nice plays at the two and the three. And finally, Greg Monroe is in play at center. If I had to choose my favorite two Bucks tonight, I’d give the edge to Antetokounmpo and Bayless.

Elite Plays

Giannis Antetokounmpo

FD: $6,800 — DK: $6,900
Min/Game: 36.0 — Usage: 26.5
FP/Game: 37.2 — FP/Min: 1.03

Jerryd Bayless

FD: $3,500 — DK: $3,800
Min/Game: 32.0 — Usage: 17.8
FP/Game: 18.0 — FP/Min: 0.56

Secondary Plays

Greg Monroe

FD: $8,200 — DK: $8,100
Min/Game: 34.0 — Usage: 22.6
FP/Game: 40.5 — FP/Min: 1.19

Khris Middleton

FD: $5,600 — DK: $5,600
Min/Game: 36.0 — Usage: 19.2
FP/Game: 20.4 — FP/Min: 0.57

Greivis Vasquez

FD: $4,300 — DK: $3,400
Min/Game: 25.0 — Usage: 19.8
FP/Game: 17.9 — FP/Min: 0.72

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious