Fantasy Football Millionaire Review: Week 4
The Millionaire review series will provide the reader with a breakdown of the exposures of “top of the leaderboard” players, the top single-entry lineup, and a comparison between all single entry lineups and professionals for the weekly DraftKings Millionaire Maker GPP.
This week, we looked at the $4.44M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st!] on DraftKings with a buy-in of $20 and maximum entry limit of 150 lineups per person.
Multi-Entry Grinders of the Game
Throughout the top-owned players at each position for BrandonAdams, we see some chalk, but also many contrarian plays scattered throughout. As needed with a lot of contrarian plays, he spread out his ownership at each position thin in order to avoid the more likely duds that contrarian plays bring. While his Cameron Artis-Payne, DeAndre Hopkins, Coby Fleener plays flopped, he was also over-owned against the field on Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Ryan, Steve Smith Sr., and Jordan Reed. Unfortunately, it seemed that he had too many misses at WR to put together a 1st-place lineup. However, he was still able to cash at a 30% clip and landed a 87th place finish (two more inside the top-200).
Dudeoflife followed closer to the chalk line, but was over-owned versus the field at a few key plays (Matt Ryan, Matt Jones, Julio Jones) and under-owned some other chalk (Cam Newton, Melvin Gordon). The key to his success was a 39th place finish on the back of a Matt Ryan & Julio Jones stack which was supplemented by a few of his lower-owned plays (Matt Jones, Broncos D). While his 33% cash rate was indicative of some of his highest owned plays not panning out, he got it done by using a number of fringe plays.
Bringing up the rear, Wally1278 continues on the trend of increasingly more chalk throughout this article (albeit with a twist). He played many of the chalk players, but either was extremely overweight on them or underweight. For instance, he nearly doubled the field ownership on Kirk Cousins, Le’Veon Bell, Melvin Gordon, Antonio Brown, Terrelle Pryor, and Jordan Reed while having less than half ownership of others: Cam Newton, Philip Rivers, David Johnson, Marvin Jones, Kelvin Benjamin, Travis Benjamin, and Greg Olsen. As it so happens, he was able to fade much of the under-performing chalk while playing over-performing chalk and parlayed that into a 73% cash rate. Without the spread ownership to many of the extreme plays, he only topped out with a 219th place finish (only finish in the top-500).
Single-Entry Winner of the Game
Jgros679 decided to roll with a low-owned Joe Flacco at home (significant home/road splits) with a simple WR1/oppWR1 stack in Steve Smith and Michael Crabtree. Steve Smith had seen a number of targets, but featured a low aDOT and was second to Mike Wallace in red zone looks, while Crabtree had been a red-zone magnet for Derek Carr. He went back to well in a few more underperforming stars in Julio Jones, Jimmy Graham, and Jordan Reed. However, their recent performances had been more a symptom of opportunity instead of being phased out of the offense or losing ability; so when the game script favored them, they performed. As the top lineup without Julio Jones placed 59th, he was vital in Jgros679’s 9th place finish.
Single-Entry vs. BrandonAdams/Dudeoflife/wally1278
Out of 256,904 entries in the Fantasy Football Millionaire, 30.7% of those entries were entered courtesy of players using a single bullet. The table below compares the exposures of those single entries to the exposures of BrandonAdams, Dudeoflife, wally1278, and 50 other top professionals picked off of RotoGrinders’ leaderboard:
