NFL DFS Expert Survey: Week 1
Our panel of experts is here to give you their NFL DFS picks for this week’s main slate contests by answering a handful of questions to help you make crucial lineup-building decisions. Want to know Noto’s three favorite players for cash games? Or squirrelpatrol’s favorite correlation? Find out below!
NFL DFS Picks: DraftKings & FanDuel Expert Survey for Week 1
What is your favorite correlation on the slate and why?
Notorious: Lamar Jackson + Ravens D/ST – This isn’t your typical correlation, as these two positions usually need a different game-script in order to reach their respective ceilings. However, some of Jackson’s biggest fantasy outings throughout his career have come in games where the Ravens have played with a big lead. He got his contract in the offseason, and this offense is better than ever (at least on paper). They brought in Todd Monken as the offensive coordinator and they added two weapons in Zay Flowers and Odell Beckham. If the Ravens are able to build a lead here (they are 10-point favorites), it will lead to more rushing attempts for Jackson and will lead to a pass-heavy game script for the Texans, who are starting a rookie quarterback.
squirrelpatrol: Baker Mayfield and Chris Godwin – I tagged Baker Mayfield in LineupHQ as my favorite value QB, and I’ll be aiming to get overweight on the Tampa Bay game stack on Sunday. Mayfield isn’t Tom Brady, but he won the starting job in Tampa Bay this summer after resurrecting his career late last season with the Rams. He’s extremely cheap, expected to be very low-owned, has the best receiving options of his career, and he’s playing indoors this week against a Vikings defense that allowed the second-most passing yards in the league last season (265.6 yds/gm allowed). My favorite pairing is with Godwin, but I’ll be playing some Mike Evans and even Cade Otton at TE.
Krayton: Kirk Cousins + Justin Jefferson – I love this TB/MIN game to start the season, and with Jefferson being one of my top spends, naturally I have interest in Cousins as well. We have a nice home game for the Vikings where Cousins will be looking for his #1 receiver early and often. He has also has other great pass-catching options in T.J. Hockenson and the rookie Jordan Addison. However, with Adam Thielen now in Carolina, I see Cousins relying on Jefferson even more to get things going early. I love this Minnesota offense, and I also love Chris Godwin and Mike Evans on the TB side, as the Bucs should be playing from behind and will look to get both of their top receivers involved right away.
ebeimfohr: Geno Smith + Seahawks WR + Rams WR – I’ll include Tyler Higbee as “Rams WR”, but I love the Seahawks passing stacks this week. The Rams defense projects to be horrible this season, while Seattle added JSN to an already strong passing offense from last season. Kenneth Walker is reportedly still not 100%, so I suspect they lean on their strong pass game here. With Cooper Kupp out, the Rams passing game options have a monster target share to absorb, and they’re all dirt cheap, meaning we can stack this game and afford superstars from other spots.
Stevietpfl: Derek Carr + Chris Olave + DeAndre Hopkins – Carr gets a fresh start in New Orleans and draws a fantastic matchup at home. The Titans ranked 28th in DVOA against the pass last season, and they allowed a league-high 290.3 passing yards per game. Olave had a 26.7% target share with a 29.3% target rate in his rookie season, both of which ranked inside the top 15 in the NFL. Olave had at least 5 catches in 8 of his 15 games last season. With Carr’s tendency to lock in on a receiver, I think Olave has a big season, and I want to jump on him early. If I’m right about Carr and Olave, the Titans should be playing from behind in this game. Hopkins joins an offense that could use a playmaker in the passing game. In “(player-popup #a-j-brown)AJ Brown”:/players/a-j-brown-982405’s final season with Tennessee, he had a 32.9% target rate, which was the 4th-highest in the NFL. If Hopkins can get 25%+ target share, I think he has a huge ceiling in this game.
eys819: Anthony Richardson + Travis Etienne + Calvin Ridley – This is not a conventional correlation stack, but I used similar correlations with Justin Fields last season. I think Richardson could have some of those same ceiling weeks on the ground that Fields did last season. Since I want to play him for his rushing upside rather than his passing upside, I don’t necessarily need one of his pass-catchers. However, big plays from Richardson could speed up the game and keep it closer than expected. Which, in turn, creates an outstanding game environment where the Jaguars skill guys could put up ceiling performances as well.
Bobby Gomes: Justin Herbert and Keenan Allen – Allen faces a promising matchup in the slot against the sophomore UDFA, Kader Kohou. Even though Keenan might be aging, he probably remains as one of the premier route runners in the NFL. It’s hard to imagine a second-year cornerback keeping up with him. While Vic Fangio’s defenses typically restrict long gains, they often concede plays in the middle.
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