NFL Futures Update: Odds Shorten for Josh Allen & Buffalo Bills in Week 6
Amazingly, the 2021 NFL season has already closed the books on five full weeks. And what a fun five weeks it has been! We have a bunch of new contenders taking form, and a handful of fresh faces in the MVP race? Yes, sir, parity is alive and well. Futures bettors must be loving that the Super Bowl and MVP odds boards feature names other than Brady, Rodgers, and Mahomes, and the Super Bowl odds are as wide open as they have been in quite some time.
At RotoGrinders, we analyze the 2021 NFL MVP odds once a week, keeping an eye on the movement and determining the best values. We show you BetMGM’s updated top ten list, then reveal our best bets and favorite longshots to ultimately take down the most coveted single-player award in professional football.
As an added bonus this week, we will also lump in BetMGM’s updated odds board for Super Bowl LVI, listing the top ten teams by their current odds to win it all.
Futures betting continues to rise in popularity, kind of like playing the long game in the stock market as opposed to short-selling (betting individual games). Making futures bets allows you to hitch your wagons to a player or team you believe in, and cash in on your investment down the line if they accomplish what you thought they would.
Let’s dive into our market update of the MVP race, as well as Super Bowl LVI odds, and make some wagers!
All odds are from BetMGM, and all stats are from NFL.com and Pro Football Reference.
NFL MVP Odds — Week 6 Update
- Josh Allen +450 (Last week: No. 2, +650)
- Kyler Murray +500 (No. 1, +700)
- Dak Prescott +650 (No. 7, +1000)
- Justin Herbert +650 (No. 4, +800)
- Tom Brady +700 (No. 6, +1000)
- Matthew Stafford +1100 (No. 8, +1200)
- Aaron Rodgers +1200 (No. 5, +1000)
- Lamar Jackson +1200 (No. 10, +2200)
- Patrick Mahomes +2000 (No. 3, +750)
- Derrick Henry +4000 (outside top ten last week)
Movement Galore, From Top to Bottom
Obviously, the top ten list got absolutely rocked this week for a multitude of reasons. Josh Allen and the Bills dismantled Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday Night Football, getting their vengeance after falling to Kansas City in the AFC Championship last winter. That not only knocked 2018 MVP Mahomes all the way down to No. 8 (and a very intriguing +2000), it also moved Allen—last year’s MVP runner-up—past Arizona’s Kyler Murray, despite the Cardinals beating the Niners.
Murray had his least impressive game of the season against San Fran, though that’s not saying much given his torrid start to the campaign. Murray still has the only undefeated team in pro football, and he plays in the more difficult division, so I’m sticking with him at the top right now.
I’m also very interested in betting Dak Prescott, the super-talented leader of a high-octane Cowboys offense. And there’s Justin Herbert, who at 23 years old has more poise and vision in the pocket than most veteran signal-callers. But don’t forget about Lamar Jackson, who just singlehandedly led the Ravens on a miraculous 28-3 scoring run to pull off a Monday Night miracle comeback over Indy in overtime.
A Runner in the Running
Speaking of putting a team one’s back, Derrick Henry serves as the first non-QB to crack the top ten MVP odds board this season. The AP hasn’t awarded an MVP to a running back since Adrian Peterson ran for 2,097 yards (and finished with 2,314 yards from scrummage), and it’s happened just six times in the 29 seasons since 1994. If Henry eclipses Chris Johnson’s all-time single-season yards from scrimmage record of 2,509 yards, or even topples Eric Dickerson’s record for most rushing yards in a season (2,105), he’s got a legitimate shot at MVP.
For the third consecutive season, Henry leads the world in most running cats, including carries (142), rushing yards (640), and touchdowns (7). He’s on a Herculean pace, and averaging the most yards per game of his career (128.0). Even if he slows down a bit, he could hit the record books thanks to the league’s expansion to a 17-game season. But knowing King Henry, he’ll want to seal the deal at the end of the 16th game to avoid the asterisk. I don’t mind putting $20 on this super-human running back, the best of our generation, at +4000 — or better yet, +6500 at FanDuel.
Don’t Count Out Brady
I also don’t mind buying the dip on the cagey veterans who have already won MVPs throughout their careers. That includes reigning MVP Aaron Rodgers, who always seems to be there at the end of the season, and Tom Brady, who still has the best offense in the NFL top-to-bottom and has the (old) age factor on his side. Brady leads the league in completions (149) and air yards (1,767), and he has 15 TDs to just two picks. Rodgers, Brady, Mahomes, and Jackson have eight MVPs between them—do we really think they should be lower on this list than Justin Herbert?
Super Bowl Odds Update
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +550 – One week after an ugly, rainy, and emotional win in Brady’s return to Foxboro, the Bucs walloped the Dolphins 45-17. Brady is averaging an absurd 353.4 passing yards per game, Antonio Brown and his fellow wideouts Chris Godwin and Mike Evans are red-hot (and healthy!), and Rob Gronkowski will be coming back soon. Hell, even Leonard Fournette has been dominant lately, and the defense seems to be getting there. You don’t have to shut teams out when you put up 40-burgers and pace the world in passing yards and touchdowns.
Buffalo Bills +600 – Not to belabor the point, but Josh Allen is one hell of a quarterback. And this system has been in place for years, with coach Sean McDermott, offensive coordinator Brian Daboll, and d-coordinator Leslie Frazier together for as long as the four-year veteran Allen has been in the league. Buffalo not only creams good teams on the road with its offense—it’s also shutting down opposing offenses in the process. This could finally be the year for Bills Mafia. Hide your folding tables.
Kansas City Chiefs +750 – Hell hath no fury like a Patrick Mahomes counted out. I think Mahomes is a great buy-low for MVP at +2000, and Kansas City is an even better buy-low for Super Bowl champion at +750. When things finally click for this team, you might regret not getting in at this rate. It won’t go down any further, I can almost assure that.
Los Angeles Rams +800 – The team that scorched the Earth out of the gate this season got extinguished by the Cardinals in Week 4, but it rebounded nicely with a W over its other division-rival Seahawks last weekend. Good to see Robert Woods coming out of his shell with Matthew Stafford, too. This team might still be the best in football.
Arizona Cardinals +1200 – I feel really good about all the glowing things I wrote about the Cardinals prior to the start of the season. Thanks for making me look good, Kyler! I just might name my son after the dude in March. But I just don’t know if the MVP candidate can keep up the insane level of RPO production across a full season and playoff run. And I still worry about Kliff Kingsbury’s coaching. For now, the offensive heroics and massive defensive improvements seem very, very real. However, I do worry about what the D will look like without Chandler Jones this week against Cleveland.
Baltimore Ravens +1200 – This team clearly believes it’s a contender, and how can anybody doubt Lamar Jackson’s superhuman abilities!? But overall, LJax has a better shot at MVP than Baltimore has at winning it all. Run-first QB schemes always gets figured out in the postseason. And this defense isn’t good enough if it’s making Carson Wentz and the hapless Colts look good in primetime.
Dallas Cowboys +1200 – Here’s my favorite longshot. Dak Prescott has looked incredible less than a year removed from multiple surgeries, Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard have become the best one-two running punch in the NFL, and CeeDee Lamb makes downfield plays that must amaze his mentor and teammate Amari Cooper. Dalton Schultz has also emerged at tight end, and Jerry Jones struck gold when he drafted CB Trevon Diggs (NFL-leading six INTs) last season and LB Micah Parsons this year. This is an actual team, and a legitimate contender.
Green Bay Packers +1200 – Rodgers still doesn’t have enough weapons downfield beyond Davante Adams. And the AC joint injury to top cornerback Jaire Alexander served as a brutal blow. You couldn’t fill that hole with three Quinton Dunbars.
Cleveland Browns +1400 – If I don’t believe in Green Bay’s passing game, I really don’t believe in Cleveland’s. In my estimation, you can’t find a good Super Bowl bet after the top seven teams on this list.
Los Angeles Chargers +1400 – I’d bet that the Chargers will win a Super Bowl within the next five years, but I don’t think it’s going to happen in 2022. Herbert is magnificent—and the bright lights don’t faze him—but LA’s core always seems to suffer injuries, and the Bolts defense isn’t ready to take on the world.
Image Credit: Imagn