NFL Grind Down - Monday/Thursday
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.
Every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide a look at how each team fares against opposing offenses from a fantasy points allowed perspective and include some statistics for key players on each team as well.
Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. These breakdowns now feature “Matchup Rating,” which factors in projected point totals, pace, and offense versus defense data to compile an all-around rating that helps determine how favorable of a fantasy matchup each team has this week.
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| Atlanta Falcons | Seattle Seahawks | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 45 | 21 | -3 | 45 | 24 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 21.9 | 15 | 10 | 12 | Offense | 23.4 | 11 | 2 | 22 | |
| Opp. Defense | 18.6 | 5 | 13 | 15 | Opp. Defense | 21.5 | 14 | 10 | 18 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Seattle Seahawks | 7 | 5 | 16 | 19 | Atlanta Falcons | 13 | 16 | 8 | 4 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Jones | 76 | 49 | 1 | 715 | Baldwin | 79 | 54 | 3 | 633 | |
| Sanu | 49 | 34 | 3 | 354 | Richardson | 41 | 26 | 5 | 458 | |
| Gabriel | 36 | 23 | 1 | 303 | Lockett | 49 | 29 | 0 | 371 | |
| Hooper | 41 | 31 | 3 | 380 | Graham | 62 | 39 | 6 | 355 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Devonta Freeman (ATL RB) – Out (Concussion) / Richard Sherman (SEA CB) – Out (Achilles) / Kam Chancellor (SEA S) – Out (Neck)
ATL Matchup Rating: 5.0
SEA Matchup Rating: 6.0
Atlanta Falcons
Quarterback: The final game of the week is an interesting one between the Falcons and Seahawks, and it is a big game in the NFC playoff picture. While it might seem a little early to be talking about the playoffs, these teams sit at 5-4 (Falcons) and 6-3 (Seahawks), with both teams trailing their respective division leaders. These teams need victories. It has generally been a tough year for Matt Ryan, but he is making some progress. He has thrown two touchdown passes in each of the last three games, and he was efficient in the win over Dallas last week. He was not needed for a ton of yardage with Atlanta racing out to a large lead, but the performance was a bit encouraging. I don’t want to target him on the road in Seattle, especially since all four quarterbacks on the Sunday/Monday night slate are competent choices. I prefer Wentz and Wilson by a considerable margin.
Running Backs: It sounds like Devonta Freeman is eventually going to be ruled out for this game, which will provide an opportunity for Tevin Coleman to take on a much bigger role in the Atlanta backfield. Terron Ward might get some chances, but Coleman should — at the very least — step into Freeman’s usual role and play on about 70-75% of the snaps. His price tag remains stuck in the middle tier on almost every site, and the opportunity is too good to pass up. Even though Seattle’s defense has been much improved against the run of late, the price tag and opportunity win out for me. I will have plenty of exposure to Coleman in all contest formats.
Pass Catchers: It is Week 11, and here we are with Julio Jones sitting on one touchdown. His production has been very un-Julio like all year long, and I generally wouldn’t bank on a breakout against the Seahawks. However, this pass defense is going to be a lot weaker without Richard Sherman, and we know there’s upside here somewhere. Mohamed Sanu is also an interesting play on the shorter slates, especially if you need a value piece. I’m tired of calling for the Julio game, so I won’t specifically call for it, but the ownership will likely be lower than expected because of the connotation that generally follows the Seahawks defense.
SUNDAY UPDATE – Upgrade this pass catching group significantly. Both Richard Sherman and Kam Chancellor are out, and this is not going to be the same defense that we are accustomed to seeing. Julio Jones is flying up my board as I type this.
The Takeaway: Tevin Coleman is an obvious mid range selection here given the likely absence of Devonta Freeman, and Coleman is a fine choice for all contest formats. While it’s hard to endorse Matt Ryan as a play, even on the shorter slates, Julio Jones is a lot more interesting with Richard Sherman out for Seattle. Mohamed Sanu is also a reasonable value target on the shorter slates.
Seattle Seahawks
Quarterback: Russell Wilson is going to put up massive numbers on a weekly basis simply because the Seahawks lack anything even resembling a competent running game. Wilson brings upside both with his arm and his legs, and he has been on a roll over the last month and a half after a tough start to the season. It’s a close call between Wentz and Wilson for the top quarterback nod on the Sunday/Monday night slate, and I’ll give Wentz an ever so slight edge. However, Wilson is very much in play, and his recent surge should inspire a lot of confidence moving forward. Since last week’s game was on a Thursday, the team has also had a little more time to get ready for this game.
Running Backs: At this point in the season, everyone knows not to mess with the Seattle backfield. Just don’t do it. The team has two rushing touchdowns on the year, and one of them was by the quarterback, who is also the team’s leading rusher. Run, don’t walk, away from this situation.
Pass Catchers: Doug Baldwin remains the safest receiving option on this team, and his weekly targets are very secure. He’s gone on a dry spell with touchdowns this year, which is mildly annoying, but they will come in time. Jimmy Graham has been snagging all of those touchdowns lately, including two last week against the Cardinals. Atlanta ranks a meager 21st in DVOA against the tight end position, making Graham a fine pivot off Zach Ertz in the prime time slate. Paul Richardson and Tyler Lockett are also viable options, with Richardson carrying the greater DFS appeal with his big play ability.
The Takeaway: Don’t be afraid to target some Seattle players in this game, as long as they are from the passing game. Wilson, Baldwin, and Graham are top plays, while Paul Richardson brings some GPP upside as well. Don’t bother with the running game.
Thursday Night Quick Hits
The Monday/Thursday slate is just a little bit different this week, as we have three Thursday games thanks to the holiday. I won’t be able to break down all three of those games yet, but keep in mind that all the major sites have late swap these days. I will get the Thursday only Grind Down posted at some point on Wednesday, in plenty of time to adjust before the Thursday games start.
At first glance, here are my quick point per dollar rankings by position for the Monday/Thursday four game slate.
Quarterback
1. Russell Wilson
2. Kirk Cousins
3. Matt Ryan
4. Matthew Stafford
5. Dak Prescott
Running Backs
1. Samaje Perine (Kelley and Thompson out)
2. Tevin Coleman
3. Melvin Gordon
4. Orleans Darkwa
5. Latavius Murray
Wide Receivers
1. Doug Baldwin
2. Julio Jones
3. Jamison Crowder
4. Adam Thielen
5. Keenan Allen
6. Dez Bryant
Tight Ends
1. Evan Engram
2. Jimmy Graham
3. Vernon Davis (IF Reed is still out)
4. Eric Ebron
Defenses
There isn’t a clear-cut top unit here. I will likely be filling my defense in last depending on how much salary I have remaining.