NFL Grind Down - Monday/Thursday
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.
Every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide a look at how each team fares against opposing offenses from a fantasy points allowed perspective and include some statistics for key players on each team as well.
Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. These breakdowns now feature “Matchup Rating,” which factors in projected point totals, pace, and offense versus defense data to compile an all-around rating that helps determine how favorable of a fantasy matchup each team has this week.
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| Pittsburgh Steelers | Cincinnati Bengals | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -5.5 | 43 | 24.25 | 5.5 | 43 | 18.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 23.5 | 12 | 9 | 19 | Offense | 18.1 | 25 | 27 | 31 | |
| Opp. Defense | 19.5 | 10 | 6 | 28 | Opp. Defense | 17.5 | 4 | 4 | 6 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 12 | 19 | 3 | 23 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 3 | 8 | 5 | 3 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Brown | 126 | 80 | 8 | 1,195 | Green | 91 | 53 | 6 | 809 | |
| Smith-Schuster | 51 | 33 | 5 | 568 | LaFell | 60 | 37 | 2 | 373 | |
| Bryant | 51 | 27 | 2 | 346 | Malone | 10 | 4 | 1 | 54 | |
| James | 42 | 28 | 3 | 246 | Kroft | 42 | 31 | 5 | 317 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Antonio Brown (PIT WR) – Questionable (Toe)
PIT Matchup Rating: 7.0
CIN Matchup Rating: 3.5
Pittsburgh Steelers
Quarterback: Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown are rediscovering the magic. The passing game has been electric over the last two games, as Le’Veon Bell has taken a back seat. Big Ben has thrown four touchdown passes in each of the last two games, but the price has yet to come up a whole lot. I like him better on the prime time slates than the full week slates, as this isn’t the greatest of matchups on the road against a solid defense. I wouldn’t expect the same type of production this week, so don’t set expectations too high. Roethlisberger completed just 14 passes in the first game between these teams, as the Steelers took more of a run-heavy approach. I would bank on some type of performance between that one and the most recent two games, making Roethlisberger a secondary mid-range QB option.
Running Backs: At some point, Le’Veon Bell is going to get it rolling again. Recency bias is definitely a thing in DFS, as we saw when Bell was dwarfing Brown in ownership a month ago when Brown was struggling. With Bell disappearing a bit of late, his ownership will likely dip this week. Bell did log 192 total scrimmage yards in the first meeting between these teams, and I think the Steelers make a concerted effort to get him going in Week 13. Even at his elevated price point, I think Bell is a strong contrarian play on the full week slates. He will be more popular in the prime time offerings, but you could get some leverage by playing him and possible fading or going underweight on the passing game.
Pass Catchers: JuJu Smith-Schuster is practicing in full this week, and he is going to return. His return eliminates the value of Martavis Bryant, even though Bryant woke up with a touchdown catch in JuJu’s absence a week ago. Of course, I am burying the top story here. Antonio Brown has logged lines of 10/169/2 and 10/144/3 on 25 total targets over the last two games. That is #good. As we know, though, these things ebb and flow. After Brown is the man for two or three weeks, Le’Veon Bell will become the man again. I think the Bengals will sell out to contain Brown, opening up more opportunities for Bell and Smith-Schuster. Brown is definitely a fine option, but I’m just pumping the breaks a little bit on expecting 150 yards and two scores every week.
SUNDAY UPDATE – The big news here is that Antonio Brown is now looking like a game-time decision for this contest. That adds to my pessimism on him this week. If he is sidelined, you can give a massive upgrade to both Smith-Schuster and Martavis Bryant.
The Takeaway: The usual suspects are certainly in play here, but this isn’t a slam dunk matchup. Big Ben, Bell, and Brown are all viable, but the passing game has been overachieving a bit over the last two weeks. Life will be a little more difficult this week. It feels like a game where the Steelers will look to get Le’Veon Bell going after a couple of quiet games, so he is my preferred option of the bunch. JuJu Smith-Schuster is also in play, as he is practicing in full after missing last week due to injury.
Cincinnati Bengals
Quarterback: If you are playing the Sunday/Monday prime time slate, Andy Dalton is the worst quarterback of the bunch. If you are playing the Monday/Thursday prime time slate, Andy Dalton is the worst quarterback of the bunch. In other words, avoid Andy Dalton in all formats.
Running Backs: Joe Mixon finally broke out with his best game as an NFL player last week against the Browns, piling up 23 carries for 114 yards and a touchdown while adding 51 receiving yards in an impressive performance. This is a difficult matchup against a solid Steelers defense, and I worry about the potential game flow concerns. If you need a mid-range running back on the prime time slates, Mixon is definitely an option. I will be avoiding him on the full week slates. The performance last week did open some eyes, though, and he will really pick up some steam if he can manage a good game here. Keep an eye on him.
Pass Catchers: Over the last couple of seasons, A.J. Green has been quiet against the Steelers. He had just two catches for 38 yards in the one meeting where he played last year, and he had just three catches for 41 yards in the first meeting this year. If you are paying up for a wide receiver in this game, it makes much more sense to opt for a red hot Antonio Brown on the other side of this game. However, Green will not carry anywhere near the ownership of Brown, and we know Green is capable of going off in any matchup. This makes Green a very live tournament option, especially on the shorter slates. Most DFS players will prioritize Brown, and Green’s ownership will be very low in all formats. I’m not interested in Tyler Kroft or any of the other wide receivers in Week 13.
The Takeaway: There’s not a lot to love with the Bengals facing a very good Steelers defense. However, that defense didn’t look very good last week against Brett Hundley, so maybe there is some hope. You can’t play Andy Dalton, but Joe Mixon and A.J. Green are interesting plays. The matchup isn’t the greatest, but a good chunk of the offense will run through those two players.
Thursday Night Quick Hits
1) The Saints/Falcons game should be a fun, close, high-scoring Thursday night game. You will want exposure to this one.
2) The viability of Matt Ryan depends largely on the health of New Orleans’ secondary. Three of their four starters have been banged up over the past few weeks, but it appears as though Marshon Lattimore was close to suiting up in Week 13. If some of the starters are out again this week, I will give Ryan a leg up at home. Otherwise, if New Orleans’ secondary is at full strength, I prefer Brees between the two. Both are reasonable options in any format on a two game slate.
3) I am done banging the drum against Alvin Kamara. He continues to produce on a weekly basis despite only getting 13-15 touches. I have no doubt that he can’t keep up this pace long term with those kinds of touches, but I am done making myself look like a fool there. Play him, or Mark Ingram, if you think they can keep the train rolling. This running game has been something to behold in 2017.
4) It’s tough to shake out things in the Atlanta backfield right now. Devonta Freeman returned last week, handled a few more touches, and looked much better than Tevin Coleman. Freeman garnered 6.2 yards per carry against the Vikings, while Coleman logged just 2.8. It’s a small sample size of course, but Freeman should eventually get back to playing on about 65-70% of the snaps. He’s my pick between the two.
5) Julio Jones doesn’t have to face Xavier Rhodes this week, but Lattimore is a tough draw assuming the New Orleans corner is healthy. Julio is capable of dominating in any matchup, but this isn’t a cakewalk. You might see a few more targets head toward Mohamed Sanu in this one, and Sanu is a reasonable cost-effective option.
6) Michael Thomas finally found the end zone last week for the first time since Week 4. He still has just one 100+ yard game all year. He is by no means a lock, but the matchup is solid against a banged up Atlanta secondary that was missing two starters, including top cover corner Desmond Trufant, a week ago.
7) Ted Ginn remains a boom-or-bust WR #3 or FLEX option.
8) The tight ends are ugly on this slate. Austin Hooper gets a nod almost by default, but the upside is low. At least this is a spot where you can save some salary. The Saints have barely used their tight ends this year.
9) I would play a defense from the Monday game, which should be much lower scoring. With these two teams featuring lots of offensive potential and banged-up defenses, there’s not much intrigue there.