NFL Grind Down: Monday/Thursday
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.
Every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide a look at how each team fares against opposing offenses from a fantasy points allowed perspective and include some statistics for key players on each team as well.
Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. These breakdowns now feature “Matchup Rating,” which factors in projected point totals, pace, and offense versus defense data to compile an all-around rating that helps determine how favorable of a fantasy matchup each team has this week.
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| New England Patriots | Miami Dolphins | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -11 | 47 | 29 | 11 | 47 | 18 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 29.0 | 4 | 1 | 9 | Offense | 17.4 | 26 | 20 | 29 | |
| Opp. Defense | 24.8 | 24 | 11 | 21 | Opp. Defense | 18.6 | 9 | 30 | 26 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Miami Dolphins | 17 | 23 | 12 | 29 | New England Patriots | 26 | 19 | 27 | 13 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Cooks | 84 | 53 | 5 | 886 | Landry | 123 | 80 | 6 | 699 | |
| Amendola | 63 | 46 | 2 | 489 | Parker | 61 | 36 | 1 | 414 | |
| Dorsett | 11 | 7 | 0 | 140 | Stills | 82 | 48 | 6 | 733 | |
| Allen | 13 | 5 | 1 | 40 | Thomas | 54 | 37 | 3 | 362 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Chris Hogan (NE WR) – Questionable (Shoulder) / Damien Williams (MIA RB) – Out (Shoulder)
NE Matchup Rating: 8.5
MIA Matchup Rating: 4.0
New England Patriots
Quarterback: Tom Brady may have struggled against the Bills last week, but let’s invoke the small sample size alert once again. He had been rolling for the better part of two months before that game, and the Patriots still won comfortably. He should be able to move the ball at will against a weak Dolphins defense, making Brady a top quarterback option on both the full week and the prime time slates. He effortlessly threw four touchdowns against this same defense two weeks ago, and the yardage could have been there if the game would have stayed close. This doesn’t require a whole lot of breaking down. Brady is viable in any contest format against a team that has packed it in for 2017.
Running Backs: Remember three weeks ago when Rex Burkhead was chalk at a cheap DraftKings price in a matchup against the Raiders? He busted that day, but he has had two really strong games since then with four touchdowns in two games. He now costs over $2,000 more on DraftKings than he did in that game against the Raiders. I won’t pay that kind of premium for a player who won’t keep up that touchdown pace. Dion Lewis also played well last week with 15 carries for 92 yards, but the goal line usage on this team is almost confounding to predict. I will avoid the New England running backs on the full week slates, but I suppose Lewis and Burkhead are both in play on the prime time offerings.
Pass Catchers: Rob Gronkowski will miss this game due to suspension after his foolish hit on a defenseless player last week, and that will open up some opportunities here. Don’t fall for the Dwayne Allen trap, as we saw him bust the last time Gronk was out. Brandin Cooks should be a virtual lock for a ton of targets in this game, making him a great rebound candidate after a poor Week 13 showing. The bigger news is that Chris Hogan appears on track to return from his shoulder injury. I generally don’t like rostering players fresh off a lengthy absence, but the circumstances couldn’t be better given the matchup and absence of Gronkowski. Count me in for some GPP shares. Of course, Danny Amendola and the running back group could soak up a few extra targets, too.
The Takeaway: As usual, the Patriots should be able to score at will against a bad defense. The loss of Gronkowski will hurt, but Chris Hogan returning will help offset some of that. Hogan is a really interesting target in his return, as the circumstances set up very well. Brandin Cooks is the safest play of the group, and you can certainly roster Tom Brady in any DFS format. It’s difficult to bank on the running backs from this team, but Lewis and Burkhead are in play on the shorter prime time slates.
Miami Dolphins
Quarterback: This is not the same New England pass defense that we saw over the first five weeks of the season. Jay Cutler only has one 300 yard game all season. He has Joe Flacco type upside, which is to say that we don’t want to use Cutler in DFS formats. The only angle we can use is a likely game script that will force a ton of pass attempts, but that’s about where the good stuff ends.
Running Backs: Damien Williams has not returned to practice, so expect Kenyan Drake to lead the pack of Miami running backs again this week. He looked fantastic against the Broncos in Week 13 and was nearly a must roster if you wanted to win a GPP, as he put up 120 rushing yards, 21 receiving yards, and a touchdown at a cheap price point. If Williams is active, I will be a little more nervous about this, but Drake should get the majority of the work regardless. He has earned the opportunity, and he is a capable enough pass catcher even if the Dolphins fall behind. Keep an eye on the news, and adjust as needed.
Pass Catchers: Strangely, Kenny Stills saw a whopping 13 targets last week against the Broncos. Don’t expect that to happen again, and he struggled in the meeting between these teams two weeks back. Jarvis Landry had eight grabs for 70 yards in that game and remains the top PPR option on this team. DeVante Parker, though quiet of late, remains an interesting risk/reward GPP option, especially on the smaller slates. Obviously, we much prefer targeting the offense on the other side of this game.
The Takeaway: Last week, Kenyan Drake was the top point per dollar play on this team, and I would expect a similar situation this week. The passing game might get a lot of volume, but this isn’t a cupcake matchup against a much improved pass defense. On the shorter slates, you can certainly consider using the New England defense, as they will likely go a bit under-owned (especially on the Sunday/Monday slate, where players will gravitate toward Baltimore and Pittsburgh).
Thursday Night Quick Hits
1) This is quite the Thursday Night game between the awful Broncos and the awful Colts, who sit at 4-9 and 3-10, respectively. There’s not going to be a lot to get excited about from this game.
2) You’d be hard pressed to make a case for Trevor Siemian or Jacoby Brissett at quarterback on a two game slate that also includes Tom Brady. I’m not going to get cute here; just play Brady at quarterback.
3) The Colts continue to give Frank Gore massive workloads despite his age, but I have real concerns about him here. It’s a short week, and he handled 36 carries against the Bills. He was very effective in the game, but I am very concerned about him on a short week. Buyer beware.
4) C.J. Anderson seems to have reclaimed the starting running back spot in Denver. I prefer Kenyan Drake if you are looking for a mid-range RB on this slate, but the matchup is fine against a Colts team that gave up 156 rushing yards to LeSean McCoy on Sunday.
5) The Colts should look to throw a little more after the weather eliminated the passing game last week. I don’t often pick on Denver’s outside corners, but T.Y. Hilton surely has the upside to break a slate. He’s worth a look in some GPP contests. Jack Doyle is probably my favorite player from the Colts side in this game. He’s generally Brissett’s favorite target, and the Broncos have been weak against tight ends this year (though they have been better lately).
6) Denver’s wide receivers still come at slight discounts from their early season costs. Demaryius Thomas is the clear #1 right now, as Emmanuel Sanders is playing hurt. Thomas logged an 8/93/1 line on 12 targets against the Jets, while Sanders had just one catch on four targets. Thomas is the guy you want here.
7) I could also see using the Denver defense against a bad team, and they played one of their best games of the season in Week 14. I wish they were playing at home here, but beggars can’t be choosers.
8) All told, you are probably going to want to skew your overall exposure toward the Monday night game, with value guys on Miami that will help to fit in Brady at quarterback. This Thursday game is ugly!