NFL Grind Down - TNF Edition: Week 2
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.
Every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide a look at how each team fares against opposing offenses from a fantasy points allowed perspective and include some statistics for key players on each team as well.
Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. These breakdowns now feature “Matchup Rating,” which factors in projected point totals, pace, and offense versus defense data to compile an all-around rating that helps determine how favorable of a fantasy matchup each team has this week.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code to get one year of Grinders Incentives for free ($300 value).
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs
| Denver Broncos | Kansas City Chiefs | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Thursday – 8:25 p.m. | Arrowhead Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 42 | 19.5 | -3 | 42 | 22.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 19.0 | 22 | 29 | 27 | Offense | 27.0 | 11 | 14 | 17 | |
| Opp. Defense | 17.6 | 5 | 5 | 27 | Opp. Defense | 18.6 | 12 | 7 | 2 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 24 | 6 | 32 | 5 | Denver Broncos | 1 | 11 | 1 | 7 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Thomas | 11 | 7 | 0 | 60 | Maclin | 9 | 5 | 0 | 52 | |
| Sanders | 12 | 8 | 0 | 65 | Wilson | 3 | 3 | 0 | 25 | |
| Latimer | Thomas | 2 | 1 | 0 | 11 | |||||
| Daniels | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | Kelce | 6 | 6 | 2 | 106 | |
The Quick Grind
The Chiefs and Broncos meet for one of their two annual regular season meetings, which have recently been dominated by the team from the Mile High City. The last time Kansas City defeated the Broncos in the regular season, Kyle Orton was getting revenge on Tim Tebow for taking his job in an ugly 7-3 affair at the tail end of the 2011-2012 season. Dexter McCluster scored the only touchdown in a game that featured 17 punts.
And while there have been much more entertaining games between these two teams since that game, we might see something a bit closer to that Tebow/Orton duel in Week 2 of 2015. Vegas has set a low total of 42 for this one, and the Chiefs (who are predicted to win) play at one of the slowest paces in the NFL. The typically fantasy-friendly Broncos have an implied team total under 20 and are playing at a slower tempo this year compared to last. Sounds fun, right?
Notable injuries and suspensions: C.J. Anderson (DEN, Ankle, Questionable)
DEN Matchup Rating: 4.0
KC Matchup Rating: 4.0
Denver Broncos
Quarterback: The Broncos may have won against Baltimore, but it wasn’t because of anything resembling a special (or even an average) performance from their Hall of Fame quarterback. Peyton Manning (FD $8,200, DK $7,500) has already seen his price dip a bit from levels we’ve come to expect, and his performance on Thursday Night is unlikely to prompt any algorithm to boost his salary for Week 3. Playing on a quick turnaround against a team with a fierce pass rush and that ranks in the bottom five in points allowed over the last 17 weeks to the QB spot is not a place to target a road, underdog quarterback. Even if that road, underdog quarterback is Peyton Manning.
Running Game: So then, let’s target the running game, right? You may pause when you see that the Chiefs have been tough against the run from a fantasy football standpoint. Since the start of last season, they’ve allowed the 26th-most points to the position in the NFL. But a closer look reveals that they allowed six 100-yard rushers last season and allowed nearly five yards per carry in Week 1 against Houston. Derrick Johnson has returned to help patch some of the holes in a run defense that PFF graded as one of the five worst in the NFL last year, but I still wouldn’t trust them to shut down opposing running games on a regular basis. After all, no back gained more yards against Kansas City last year than C.J. Anderson (FD $8,000, DK $6,700), who picked up 185 total yards from scrimmage and a score in their Week 13 meeting. Unfortunately, Anderson is questionable, and while there are no reports indicating he’ll miss out, he may not be at full strength. Combine that murky situation with the Broncos’ road underdog status, and I’ll pass on this phase of the game. If for some reason Anderson sits out, Ronnie Hillman (FD $5,100, DK $5,600) is in play as the starter (and as an accomplished pass-catching back), but his price on DraftKings (where his receiving skills earn us more points) doesn’t give the sort of discount we want with a backup runner in a difficult spot.
Pass Catchers: Receivers had fairly average success against Kansas City last year, and since we’re expecting nothing special from the quarterback position, it’s difficult to imagine anything great from the receivers here, either. DeAndre Hopkins did have a special day against this defense in Week 1, and if anyone for Denver can recreate what Hopkins did, it would be Demaryius Thomas (FD $8,500, DK $8,400). He and Emmanuel Sanders (FD $8,000, DK $7,600) will dominate the targets yet again for Denver, but Peyton Manning just didn’t look comfortable of any pass traveling a great distance last week, and I’m not sure there are a whole lot of points to go around in this one. Owen Daniels will be the tight end, but facing a team that is solid against that position, I’m not interested in trying to pick from the scraps in a low over-under game. I don’t see a reason to target any of these players.
The Takeaway: It’s a Thursday Night Football game with big names but a low Vegas total and plenty of reasons to worry. This screams total fade to me, since the Denver name value will still likely attract a decent level of ownership you can pass in tournaments when the team finishes with a final score in the mid teens. C.J. Anderson is the only name worth even an ounce of consideration.
Kansas City Chiefs
Quarterback: Would it surprise anyone to see Alex Smith (FD $6,800, DK $6,300) finish with more fantasy points than Peyton Manning on Thursday night? Smith had a great Week 1, tossing three touchdowns and picking up 243 yards against Houston, and now faces a team that has allowed the 13th most points to opposing signal callers since the start of last season. The Broncos have a really, really good defense in every phase of the game, but yet they still allowed some solid showings last year, giving up a passing touchdown every week apart from Week 2, when Smith’s Chiefs failed to throw for a score. The possibility for a decent game from Smith is there, especially as a home favorite, but it’s just not a very good matchup by any other measure, so I’m going to stay away from Smith, but may consider rostering another component of this passing game, who I will mention a bit later.
Running Game: Jamaal Charles (FD $8,800, DK $7,600) started off the season in extremely quiet fashion, running for only 57 yards against Houston, but chipping in with a receiving touchdown to salvage his fantasy day. Charles out-snapped his backup Knile Davis (FD $5,200, DK $3,000) by a very healthy amount, even in a game that saw Kansas City leading by three scores for most of the second half. The Broncos have a really good run defense, however, ranking third-best in Football Outsiders run defense DVOA when combining the data from last year with Week 1. PFF and fantasy points allowed tell the same story. You don’t want to mess with the Broncos as a running back, not even as a receiver out of the backfield, where they’re above average in DVOA. I can’t justify spending for Charles in this one.
Pass Catchers: Last week, I was wrong about Travis Kelce (FD $6,600, DK $5,100). I let his matchup scare me away, when I should have trusted his talent and role in the Kansas City offense. I won’t be making that mistake again. The Broncos allowed nine touchdowns to tight ends a year ago, including one to the player who Kelce compares to most favorably at his position: Rob Gronkowski. From a physical standpoint, Kelce can do nearly everything Gronk can do, especially after the catch, where the Kansas City tight end has shown a healthy amount of explosiveness. Last year, the worry was that the Chiefs wouldn’t get Kelce involved in the offense. That remains the primary concern. He played the second-most snaps of a skill position player for Kansas City in Week 1, but still only saw six targets. He turned those targets into a huge fantasy point total, and could do the same against Denver. He’s a tournament option until we’re sure we know his role is six or more targets per week, but I wouldn’t blame you for using him in a cash game or two, as well. Otherwise, I don’t want to challenge the incredible corners for Denver, as Aqib Talib and Chris Harris will both control their matchups against Jeremy Maclin (FD $7,100, DK $6,500) and Albert Wilson (FD $4,500, DK $3,000).
The Takeaway: Travis Kelce is a matchup nightmare and can be considered on the Gronkowski level of matchup proof, but with a lower floor due to concerns about overall workload in the Kansas City offense. No one else stands out as a noteworthy option on this side of the ball, meaning a Thursday Night Fade is the best play here, with the possible exception of using Kelce or the Kansas City defense (as one of only a few home favorites expected to keep their opponent under 20 points).