NFL Grind Down: Week 2 - Monday/Thursday
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.
Every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide a look at how each team fares against opposing offenses from a fantasy points allowed perspective and include some statistics for key players on each team as well.
Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. These breakdowns now feature “Matchup Rating,” which factors in projected point totals, pace, and offense versus defense data to compile an all-around rating that helps determine how favorable of a fantasy matchup each team has this week.
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| Detroit Lions | New York Giants | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 43.5 | 20.25 | -3 | 43.5 | 23.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 35.0 | 3 | 7 | 16 | Offense | 3.0 | 28 | 18 | 29 | |
| Opp. Defense | 19.0 | 13 | 21 | 24 | Opp. Defense | 23.0 | 19 | 22 | 4 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| New York Giants | 18 | 12 | 16 | 26 | Detroit Lions | 12 | 22 | 23 | 7 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Tate | 12 | 10 | 0 | 107 | Beckham | |||||
| Jones | 2 | 2 | 1 | 37 | Marshall | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 | |
| Golladay | 7 | 4 | 2 | 69 | Shepard | 8 | 7 | 0 | 44 | |
| Ebron | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 | Engram | 5 | 4 | 0 | 44 | |
Notable Injuries and Suspensions: Odell Beckham – NYG WR – Questionable (Ankle)
DET Matchup Rating: 3.5
NYG Matchup Rating: 4.5
Detroit Lions
Quarterback: I remember when Monday Night Football was always the best game of the week. Now, that has moved to Sunday night, and the MNF game is often a dud. We have one of those here, with a likely low scoring game on tap between the Lions and Giiants. Matthew Stafford put up a GPP-winning type performance in a tough matchup last week against the Cardinals, but I am not banking on lightning striking twice. Although the Giants were awful offensively last week, the secondary did play very well, with Janoris Jenkins making several good plays in coverage. I see no reason to force the issue with Stafford, even on the shorter Sunday night/Monday night slates. On those shorter slates, I will still opt for Ryan or Rodgers at QB. This Giants secondary is good.
Running Back: Ameer Abdullah played on just 50% of the snaps last week, and he did not look good with just 15 carries for 30 yards on the day. The Lions are still going to use Theo Riddick in passing situations, as evidenced by the fact that Riddick saw seven targets in the passing game. This is a situation very similar to the one we see in Washington, and it’s hard to peg who is going to get the numbers in a game that should be close. Detroit has a sub-20 point team total, and I don’t see any reason to force the issue with this unit.
Pass Catchers: I am super excited to watch Northern Illinois University (represent!) standout Kenny Golladay perform at the NFL level, and he made his presence felt right away with two touchdown grabs against the Cardinals. His presence will also allow Golden Tate to play out of the slot a lot more, where Tate is most comfortable. Tate caught ten of twelve targets last week, and he might be one of the biggest draft day steals this year for those who are playing season long formats. I don’t know yet if the Giants will use Jenkins to shadow anyone this week, but it is unlikely to be Tate given where he usually lines up. The Giants are more vulnerable to tight ends, as evidenced by the fact that Jason Witten dominates them in Week 1 every year, so this could be a sneaky breakout spot for Eric Ebron.
The Takeaway: There’s no need to go crazy here, but you will need to take a Lion or two if you are playing the shorter slates. In that case, Eric Ebron and Golden Tate are my favorite targets. I am not going to touch the backfield given the likely workload split between Abdullah and Riddick, and Matthew Stafford is not really on my radar at quarterback.
New York Giants
Quarterback: Eli Manning looked like a deer in the headlights last week, and his DFS viability appears to be 100% dependent on whether or not Odell Beckham Jr. plays. If Beckham is out again this week, you can cross Manning off any and all lists. If Beckham plays, you can still cross Manning off the full slate lists, though he would be at least “stomachable” (that’s not a word, but it is today) on the shorter slates — specifically the Monday/Thursday slate. It is impossible to over-emphasize just how horrific this offense looked against Dallas without Beckham in there, especially in the first half. It was ugly, and it will be ugly again if Beckham doesn’t play. Keep your ears open for an update, but things are sounding at least somewhat positive here on Thursday.
Running Back: This could be the least talented group of running backs in the league. Paul Perkins has no upside, Shane Vereen doesn’t see enough volume, and nobody else is any good. The Lions do struggle against pass catching RBs, so Vereen could be interesting in this spot. I would not dare touch him in a cash game, as a 50-55% snap rate is generally a ceiling, but Vereen would be the most likely Giants RB to have success in this matchup. I’m not super excited about it, but I had to write something, and that’s how I feel.
Pass Catchers: This all depends on whether or not Beckham plays. I wouldn’t use him in a cash game in his first game back, but the GPP upside is obviously immense, especially when you consider how poor the rest of the group is. Brandon Marshall looked like he was running in quicksand last week. Manning desperately needs Beckham in there. Should Beckham be held out, Sterling Shepard would be the preferred play, as he was the only one who showed a pulse last week. Again, this all depends on the status of Beckham, which we might not know until Monday night. That’s a problem on everything except the Mon/Thu slate.
The Takeaway: Nobody on this team is cash game playable this week, while Manning, Vereen, and Beckham (if he plays) are viable tournament plays, and Manning is only in play if Beckham is in as well. If Beckham sits, the Lions defense actually enters the mix as an interesting unit to select on the shorter slates.
Thursday Night Quick Hits
I realize some of you might be playing the Monday/Thursday slate, so I will add some quick thoughts on the Thursday game here going forward.
1) This slate is terrible with a Lions/Giants and Rams/49ers slate. I would suggest not getting carried away with this two gamer.
2) The Lions and Giants have zero running games to speak of, so you will likely want heavier RB exposure in the Thursday contest. Both Carlos Hyde and Todd Gurley have safe roles for volume, and this should be a close game, so they move to the top of the list.
3) GPPs will likely be won with quarterback selections. Good luck deciding among Goff, Hoyer, and Manning (possibly without Beckham), or Stafford in a tough matchup. I don’t have a strong take on this group but will likely prefer a QB from the Monday game.
4) If Odell Beckham is out on Monday, don’t hesitate to go to the well with Sterling Shepard or Brandon Marshall as a cheap WR play in the Monday game. Cooper Kupp and Pierre Garcon are the premiere targets on Thursday. Garcon should rebound with a better matchup in this one.
5) Both the Rams and 49ers have a black hole at tight end, so Engram and Ebron are your tight end targets. Ignore the Thursday game there. I also prefer the defenses on Monday from a talent perspective, but otherwise I side with the Rams by a nose on Thursday.
6) In tournaments, the big play ability of Marquise Goodwin is really interesting as a dart throw.
7) Salary cap is not a major issue on this slate. Be careful not to just choose the most expensive options at each position, as that lineup will be duplicated by hundreds of other people. Get creative!