NFL Grind Down: Week 5 - Monday Night Football
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.
Every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow.
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| Washington Redskins | New Orleans Saints | |||||||||
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Washington Redskins
Notable injuries and suspensions: Doctson (Questionable – Heel)
Quarterback: The Saints have the league’s worst pass DVOA but the league’s best run DVOA, so this sets up as a spot Alex Smith should have some success in. The Redskins are also 6.5 point dogs as of this writing, so a potential negative game script sets up well for Smith. The Redskins are coming off a bye week and have had some extra time to prepare for the Saints on Monday Night. We don’t normally think of Smith as a high-volume quarterback but in the one game this season where the Redskins were trailing, Smith threw the ball 46 times. On a Showdown slate, Smith will be contrarian but will have a good matchup.
Running Backs: Adrian Peterson is in a #revengegame but he’s been game script dependent this season. He’s coming off a vintage performance against the Packers where he rushed 19 times for 120 yards and two touchdowns. The Redskins won that game but it’s worth noting Peterson wasn’t involved in the passing game. If you think the Redskins have a positive game script, Peterson is your guy. I prefer taking Chris Thompson and banking on the Redskins playing from behind. Thompson will essentially operate as another receiver. When the team was trailing to the Colts in Week 2, Thompson saw 13 targets in that game as the Redskins played catch-up. Again, who you roster here depends on how you expect the game script to go.
Pass Catchers: Alex Smith has really spread out the ball through their first three games, making it difficult to pinpoint who you should target out of the Redskins receivers:
Jordan Reed would be my primary option, as he leads all pass catchers with a 21% target share. Paul Richardson, Josh Doctson and Jamison Crowder don’t see a ton of volume on a per-game basis so they are touchdown-dependent to hit value. Please note that Josh Doctson missed practice on Friday with a heel injury so that’s not a good sign. Monitor his status as his potential absence would open up some more targets for the others. If he’s out, we could see Maurice Harris start but he’s not someone I’d be enthusiastic to play.
The Takeaway: Alex Smith gets one of the best matchups for a quarterback as the Saints rank last in pass DVOA, but there’s not a single receiver I’m excited to pair him with. Jordan Reed would be my choice if I had to. What you do with Adrian Peterson depends on whether you think the Redskins can play with a lead or not. The Saints have the best run DVOA so I’m more inclined to roster Chris Thompson over Peterson.
New Orleans Saints
Notable injuries and suspensions: Ginn (Out – Knee)
Quarterback: The Redskins rank 3rd in pass DVOA but are near the bottom in run DVOA. Drew Brees stunk it up like poo-poo in his last game against the Giants, failing to throw a touchdown for the first time since November 12, 2017. He gets a chance to rebound this time at home. I’m never going to bet against Home Drew Brees, but I’ll admit the fact the Redskins are so much worse against the run has me preferring getting my Saints exposure first through Kamara before I use my salary on Brees.
Running Backs: The big story in New Orleans is what role Mark Ingram will have now that he’s back. I’m imagining Mark Ingram walking through the Saints locker room in slow motion smoking a cigarette and announcing to the entire team, “I’m Back!”, forcing the other 52 players to turn around to see what the commotion was all about and then going back to whatever they were doing, ignoring Ingram. In all reality, Ingram will play some kind of role, but I feel the Saints are committed to Kamara as their lead back at this point and Ingram isn’t going to see the 14 carries per game he saw last year.
If I’m getting exposure to the Saints, it’s via Alvin Kamara. I don’t care that older brother Mark Ingram is back from college and ready to take back his old room – this is Kamara’s room now. All the posters Ingram put up have been taken down and replaced with, uh, new posters. Kamara dominated the Giants last week for 134 yards and three touchdowns while also catching five of his nine targets for 47 yards. This sets up as another smash spot.
Pass Catchers: Michael Thomas struggled last week, and it was an extension of Drew Brees struggling. Thomas had his worst game of the season, seeing just four targets. None of the Saints receivers had much success, but I’m expecting Thomas to bounce back here. Thomas isn’t a priority for me given I want Kamara first. If you’re taking shots on any of the other Saints receivers, it’s hard to pinpoint who to roster. Ted Ginn saw 54% of the snaps, Tre’Quan Smith saw 37%, Cameron Meredith saw 31% and Austin Carr saw 17%. Outside of Thomas, none of these receivers are getting reliable playing time. Even tight ends Ben Watson and Josh Hill were in a near time share last week.
Ted Ginn has been ruled out for this game so that should open up more time for Tre’Quan Smith and Cameron Meredith. Since Smith saw more snaps than Meredith last week, I slightly prefer him over Meredith if you’re taking shots on one of these secondary options.
The Takeaway: Give me Alvin Kamara, or give me death.