NFL Grind Down: Week 5, Thursday Edition
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.
Every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide a look at how each team fares against opposing offenses from a fantasy points allowed perspective and include some statistics for key players on each team as well.
Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. These breakdowns now feature “Matchup Rating,” which factors in projected point totals, pace, and offense versus defense data to compile an all-around rating that helps determine how favorable of a fantasy matchup each team has this week.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code to get one year of Grinders Incentives for free ($300 value).
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans
| Indianapolis Colts | Houston Texans | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Thursday – 8:25 p.m. | Reliant Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 44.5 | 21.5 | -1.5 | 44.5 | 23 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 18.0 | 26 | 15 | 26 | Offense | 19.3 | 24 | 4 | 20 | |
| Opp. Defense | 27.0 | 26 | 11 | 22 | Opp. Defense | 23.3 | 15 | 20 | 25 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Houston Texans | 28 | 27 | 6 | 20 | Indianapolis Colts | 19 | 15 | 29 | 15 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Hilton | 41 | 22 | 0 | 294 | Hopkins | 60 | 31 | 3 | 409 | |
| Johnson | 20 | 7 | 0 | 51 | Washington | 28 | 13 | 0 | 210 | |
| Moncrief | 35 | 23 | 3 | 275 | Shorts | 39 | 22 | 1 | 236 | |
| Fleener | 19 | 14 | 1 | 139 | Fiedorowicz | 5 | 5 | 1 | 62 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Andrew Luck (IND, Shoulder, Questionable), Dwayne Allen (IND, Ankle, Probable), Frank Gore (IND, Foot, Probable), Cecil Shorts (HOU, Shoulder, Out), Nate Washington (HOU, Hamstring, Out), Arian Foster (HOU, Groin, Probable)
IND Matchup Rating: 5.0
HOU Matchup Rating: 5.5
Indianapolis Colts
Quarterback: Andrew Luck (FD $8,900, DK $7,700) has an injured shoulder. Outside of that, there is not much clarity to be found surrounding the health of the Indy signal caller, who would be a fantasy favorite at 100% against the hapless Texans on national TV Thursday night. The possibility of Luck sitting out looms large, and the potential for a poor performance thanks to his injury is also in play. Matt Hasselbeck (FD $5,700, DK $5,000) has been limited in practice due to an injury, and while he didn’t look terrible in his first start, he is not worth going out of your way to play Thursday slates to get him into lineups. If Luck is active, he’s worth a spot in a GPP against the terrible Texans (23rd in DVOA pass defense per Football Outsiders, fifth most points allowed to the position this season), but there’s a lot of risk associated with a quarterback with an injury to his arm/shoulder.
Running Game: The Texans aren’t any better against the run, having just allowed Devonta Freeman into the end zone three times just days ago. However, before last week’s loss to the Falcons, the Texans had not allowed a rushing touchdown, but did allow a screen pass to Charles Sims and a throw to Jamaal Charles to lead to scores. They’re just generally a very bad football team, and that means they’re prone to allowing fantasy points (sixth most points to backs on the season, second-worst pass defense against opposing running backs according to Football Outsiders). This means Frank Gore (FD $6,900, DK $5,000) is an option, and while he doesn’t have a huge workload like he did in San Francisco in his prime, he gets enough touches and red zone opportunities to pay off his salary in a good matchup. I just don’t trust this offense in general with the quarterback issues, so I’m reserving exposure to tournaments only.
Pass Catchers: The only good news related to Luck’s injury is the price stability/discount it will create for the wideouts. Without Luck slinging four-touchdown games to his targets, the prices will remain low until Luck is back to full strength, and his teammates will then prosper at a relative bargain price. But for now, T.Y. Hilton (FD $7,500, DK $6,800) and Donte Moncrief (FD $6,500, DK $5,400) are just stacking partners with whoever starts under center in a GPP lineup, don’t even think about the now irrelevant Andre Johnson (FD $5,400, DK $4,100), and the tight end situation is not worthy of your time with Dwayne Allen (FD $4,900, DK $2,900) and Coby Fleener (FD $5,200, DK $3,200) likely back to sharing the load at the position.
The Takeaway: The uncertainty under center leaves a lot of questions hovering over an offense that should be an easy stack in a good matchup. The Vegas line for this game (a 45 total that is either a pick ‘em or a slight advantage to the Texans) tells you everything you need to know about the state of the Colts. Until we have confidence that Luck is back to himself, this team lacks in floor and has a lower ceiling than the one we got used to a year ago.
Houston Texans
Quarterback: Ryan Mallett (FD $6,500, DK $5,000) is not a good quarterback. So far this season, he’s failed to complete 50% of his passess on two occasions, and he’s producing staggeringly low per-attempt numbers despite trailing for most of his time on the field, and needing to score and score quickly to get back into games. The Colts have not been terrible against the pass this year, and while they might be without star corner Vontae Davis, I still don’t want to get my exposure to Houston through Mallett. There are better ways to approach this team.
Running Game: Arian Foster (FD $8,200, DK $7,000) was eased back into action this past weekend with eight carries and five targets in his first game back after dealing with a groin injury. Foster normally picks up a full workload upon his return to action from injuries, so I was surprised to see him not get 20+ touches, but it’s possible his coaches didn’t want to run him into the ground in a blowout loss, and wanted to save him for what should be a competitive game against the Colts. This game should stay close, Foster got his “warm up” game out of the way, and is definitely a player to consider in this matchup. He’s a top tournament play this week.
Pass Catchers: DeAndre Hopkins (FD $8,000, DK $7,200) has 60 targets through four games. Only two other receivers have more than 50 targets so far this season. He is easily the most heavily targeted player in any passing game in the league, and while they’re not high-quality targets, they will turn into catches at least half the time, and that means seven or eight grabs for 100 yards can be seen as a reasonable expectation for the Clemson product. Nuk gets a huge boost if Vontae Davis is out, but with injuries to the Texans other top receivers, I’m willing to roll with Hopkins even if the Colts’ top corner is active. There’s no penalty for interceptions thrown while targeting Hopkins, and if the game becomes a blowout, he’ll see garbage time targets and points, which count all the same in daily fantasy. It may be tempting to grab Keith Mumphery (FD $5,000, DK $3,000) or Jaelen Strong (FD $4,800, DK $3,000), but I’m not confident that they’ll see enough looks to justify selection considering how little a receiver is expected to do with seven or eight Ryan Mallett targets. The team’s tight ends have combined for only 21 of the team’s 199 targets so far this season, but with all the injuries at receiver, I could see Garrett Graham (FD $4,600, DK $2,500) getting a couple of extra passes thrown his way this week. Again, I’m not sure that’s worth targeting in daily fantasy, considering the quality of the thrower.
The Takeaway: Arian Foster is an interesting tournament play, and DeAndre Hopkins is going to see a ton of looks and should produce a decent fantasy day with touchdown upside. Otherwise, stay away from this team, and this game, as this one should be ugly.