NFL Grind Down: Week 6, Thursday Edition
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.
Every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide a look at how each team fares against opposing offenses from a fantasy points allowed perspective and include some statistics for key players on each team as well.
Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. These breakdowns now feature “Matchup Rating,” which factors in projected point totals, pace, and offense versus defense data to compile an all-around rating that helps determine how favorable of a fantasy matchup each team has this week.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code to get one year of Grinders Incentives for free ($300 value).
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints
| Atlanta Falcons | New Orleans Saints | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Thursday – 8:25 p.m. | Mercedes-Benz Superdome | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -3 | 51 | 27 | 3 | 51 | 24 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 32.4 | 3 | 6 | 6 | Offense | 20.6 | 21 | 2 | 28 | |
| Opp. Defense | 28.6 | 29 | 24 | 30 | Opp. Defense | 22.4 | 15 | 25 | 1 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| New Orleans Saints | 30 | 24 | 10 | 29 | Atlanta Falcons | 12 | 32 | 11 | 20 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Jones | 62 | 43 | 4 | 545 | Colston | 28 | 18 | 0 | 200 | |
| White | 17 | 8 | 0 | 115 | Cooks | 40 | 25 | 1 | 322 | |
| Hankerson | 33 | 18 | 2 | 254 | Coleman | 18 | 9 | 1 | 113 | |
| Tamme | 20 | 16 | 0 | 198 | Watson | 21 | 15 | 1 | 139 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Leonard Hankerson, Devonta Freeman, Julio Jones (ATL, Probable), Marques Colston (NO, Doubtful)
ATL Matchup Rating: 8.5
NO Matchup Rating: 6.5
Atlanta Falcons
Quarterback: The Falcons have started off the season with at least 24 points and 378 yards of total offense in every game, and this week they face a defense that Football Outsiders ranks as the worst against the pass in the NFL, and that they project to be the worst defense in the league at season’s end. The Saints have allowed nine touchdown passes and two rushing touchdowns to opposing passers through five games, while three of the five passers they’ve faced eclipsed 300 yards. This spot could not set up any better for Matt Ryan (FD $8,100, DK $6,900). However, his receivers are either hurt or old, and his running back has morphed into the second coming of LaDainian Tomlinson. There are reasons for optimism and caution, and coming off of a disappointing outing in what appeared to be a pretty good spot, Ryan is an excellent tournament option and is cash-game viable in Thursday contests.
Running Game: The aforementioned second coming of LT is none other than Devonta Freeman (FD $8,000, DK $7,000), who has 88 touches in his last three games, has scored seven times over that span, and totaled over 500 yards from scrimmage in those contests. And this week, he gets to face a defense that just a week ago allowed the previously invisible Philadelphia rushing attack to pick up well over 200 yards from scrimmage and score twice. Prior to that, the Saints had done a decent job of containing opposing running backs, but not well enough to consider this anything resembling a bad spot for Freeman. Even with Tevin Coleman (FD $5,300, DK $4,000) back in the picture, Freeman dominated the touches out of the backfield, and was even used as a receiver split out wide to further create matchup problems for opposing defenses. If you’re playing the Thursday slate, the only reason you should pick someone other than Freeman in a running back spot is if you’re fading him for game theory purposes in a GPP. With Julio hurt and the pass offense being a bit inconsistent, I expect more of what we’ve seen over the past couple of weeks from Freeman.
Pass Catchers: Julio Jones (FD $9,200, DK $9,200) was off to a ridiculous start to the season, but then injury struck, and now the seemingly unstoppable receiver is limited and looking a bit more pedestrian when he is on the field. He hasn’t practiced much, if at all, this week, but with limited time between games, the Falcons were always going to play it safe and give Jones time to recover. He’s unlikely to play a full complement of snaps, and he’s not the same receiver we saw light it up over the first couple of weeks of the season, but he’s still a tournament option as the best receiver in this offense. Leonard Hankerson (FD $5,800, DK $4,200) had a disappointing performance in Week 5, but remains in tournament consideration, and would be a core play if Jones is ruled out. He’s still ahead of Roddy White (FD $5,400, DK $3,500) on the fantasy relevance totem pole, as indicated by their prices. And you’ll hear a lot of people talking about Jacob Tamme (FD $5,100, DK $2,500) for fantasy purposes this weekend. There’s a good reason for that. Coming off of a ten-target, eight-catch game against Washington, the man who used to be Peyton’s safety blanket now lines up with another pretty good quarterback and faces a team that is about as bad as it gets against the tight end position. The Saints have allowed tight ends to haul in four touchdowns this season, and allowed big games to Darren Fells and Greg Olsen. We saw last week that simply rostering an old tight end in a good matchup doesn’t guarantee success, but at this price, Tamme is an excellent tournament pick, especially in a two or three-man stack of this Falcons passing game.
The Takeaway: Devonta Freeman is going to be popular, and for good reason. The rest of the Falcons are tournament plays because of inconsistency and uncertain health or talent, but this is a great spot to bank on some ridiculous upside in what should be the highest scoring competitive game this weekend.
New Orleans Saints
Quarterback: Is the Drew Brees (FD $8,300, DK $7,000) we used to know back in action for the Saints? After a slow start to the season and a worrisome shoulder injury, Brees has returned to throw for over 330 yards and two scores in back-to-back games. And while the Falcons have decent numbers against the pass so far this season (25th in fantasy points allowed), part of that is due to the competition they’ve faced. Sam Bradford, Eli Manning, Brandon Weeden, the Houston quarterbacks and Kirk Cousins. Manning is the only one you could even begin to compare to Brees, and the New York passer threw for 292 yards and two scores against the Falcons. Atlanta has talented players at every level of their defense now, especially with Robert Alford emerging at the corner spot opposite rising star Desmond Trufant, but the overall level of quality is still lacking. Expect Brees to throw a lot as the Saints chase this game, and under the friendly shadow of the Superdome roof, he could win a tournament for those who roster him.
Running Game: Remember when an 80-yard catch late in a game was enough to justify trusting the usage of C.J. Spiller (FD $5,300, DK $3,800) again? DFS players were burned by Spiller for the millionth time last week as the talented but inconsistent back got only six touches for a grand total of two yards from scrimmage. He played a significantly smaller amount of snaps when compared to starter Mark Ingram (FD $7,800, DK $6,000), and also split time with Khiry Robinson (FD $4,800, DK $3,000) as the Saints rotated their backs in and out of the game, killing all of their daily fantasy floors in the process. Ingram is the one you want if you’re targeting this backfield, but I’m not sure he’s worth his price tag against a defense that has only allowed one running back to go over 50 yards rushing this season. The Falcons have allowed a few backs to find success as receivers this season, but since pass catching duties among running backs seems to be split three ways for the Saints, I’m not chasing those opportunities.
Pass Catchers: With Marques Colston looking unlikely to play, Brandin Cooks (FD $7,000, DK $5,700) and Willie Snead (FD $6,200, DK $3,300) are both very appealing options against the Falcons. They have two talented corners, but they both play their own sides, and neither ventures into the slot very often. All of the New Orleans receivers move around the formation as the game goes on, so they’ll be given chances to get open and find space against the weak links in the Atlanta defensive backfield. Snead leads the team in red zone targets despite failing to reach six feet in height, and while Cooks was given a red zone shot last week and turned it into a score. Both players will likely see ten or more targets this week with Colston on the sidelines, and make for great plays, with Snead more popular and better for cash games, and Cooks better in tournaments.
The Takeaway: The running game is spread too thin and not in a good enough matchup to target, but Drew Brees and his two healthy, relevant receivers are definitely in play against an Atlanta team that has yet to be challenged by an opposing passing game this season. The Falcons could stand up to the challenge, but I’m not banking on it, especially not with an improving Brees under center.