NFL Grind Down: Week 8 - Monday Night Football
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.
Every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow.
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| New England Patriots | Buffalo Bills | |||||||||
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New England Patriots
Notable injuries and suspensions: Gordon (Questionable but expected to play – Hamstring), Gronkowski (Questionable but expected to play – Back), Michel (Out – Knee)
Quarterback: The Patriots are massive favorites here, and it’s fair to wonder how much Tom Brady and the Patriots will have their foot on the pedal in this one. Brady helped the Patriots sneak a win last week against the Bears, throwing for 277 yards and three touchdowns. The Bills actually have a really solid pass defense led by Tre’Davious White, who is expected to be on Josh Gordon this week. Normally I’d say this would be a Sony Michel game but with Michel looking doubtful, the Patriots may not have much choice but to rely on Brady’s arm to rack up points. Despite the less-than-ideal matchup, Brady should remain a fantastic option in a Showdown slate because of Michel’s likely absence.
Running Backs: Sony Michel has been ruled out. That would leave James White as the primary back with Kenjon Barner behind him. While out-carried Barner 11 to 10 last week, which was a career-high for White. I expect White to continue seeing a healthy dose of carries but expect him to keep his primary role as the pass catching back. He saw a team-high 10 targets last week and turned that into a 8-57-2 line through the air. The Patriots should be playing with a lead here so he’s unlikely to see that much work again, but the hope is that he’s able to do his damage early and often before giving way to someone like Barner to milk the clock. Barner remains a decent option in a Showdown game, but I’ll update the Grind Down if we hear the Patriots add someone else to their roster. I’m almost expecting them to as a White/Barner combo in the backfield would leave them incredibly thin should something happen to one of them. (Update 10-28-18 – the Patriots did not sign anyone this week). Maybe they’ll sign the ghost of Jamaal Charles. Haha, just kidding. No team would ever do that (LOL Jaguars).
Pass Catchers: Rob Gronkowski missed last week’s game but he’s expected to return here. You knew he wouldn’t miss this game in Buffalo, which is his hometown. Add in the fact that the Gronk retire rumors are always swirling and maybe this is his last time playing in front of his hometown crowd? Oh, you know I love a good narrative. Here are Gronk’s DraftKings points by game over his career versus the Bills (via Statmuse):
The problem with Gronk is that he just hasn’t been very good or effective this season. He hasn’t caught a touchdown or hit the 100-yard mark since Week 1. The return of Julian Edelman, trade for Josh Gordon and emergence of Sony Michel seems to have hurt his production. If you put the narrative aside it’s hard to get excited about him. I will say that Gordon’s matchup against White is a troubling one, and a spot where I would consider going underweight on Gordon as I respect White’s abilities. The likely loss of Michel should also transform the Patriots into more of a passing team this week. I can get on-board with Julian Edelman and maybe even a sprinkle of Chris Hogan, who came alive last week but note that it was without Gronk on the field.
The Takeaway: With Sony Michel out, that elevates James White into a heavy workload and forces Kenjon Barner into the backup role. Tom Brady has a tough matchup on paper but this is also Tom Brady we’re talking about the Patriots have a massive implied team total. If you want to take a stroll down narrative street, give Rob Gronkowski in a hometown game a look. He hasn’t been good since Week 1 but he did have a week to rest up in preparation for this. His return would hurt Julian Edelman and Chris Hogan, as well as Josh Gordon. Speaking of Gordon, he has the toughest matchup against Tre’Davious White so I’m downgrading him slightly.
Buffalo Bills
Notable injuries and suspensions: Allen (Out – Elbow), McCoy (Expected to Play – Head)
Quarterback: Despite throwing for three interceptions and leading the Bills to a dreadful five points last week, the Bills remain committed to Derek Anderson as their quarterback. I don’t see how this 35-year old journeyman is better than Nathan Peterman at this point. The Patriots defense is likely a top play this week, and hey, feel free to even throw them into the captain spot on your Showdown teams if you want to be different. This is just a bad situation.
Running Backs: LeSean McCoy left the Bills’ last game early but appears like he’s playing in this game. After McCoy left, Chris Ivory rushed 16 times for 81 yards and also caught three of his six targets for 25 yards. If McCoy were to be ruled out, Ivory would be a serviceable option in a Showdown game, but there’s no need to go here for any other purposes. If McCoy suits up, I suppose you could throw some darts at him but there’s a dangerously low ceiling for him in this offense. (Update 10-28-18 – McCoy has cleared concussion protocol and will play).
Pass Catchers: Man, I don’t even know what to say here. I give Kelvin Benjamin props for grabbing a season-high 71 yards last week. That’s pretty hard to do when you have Derek Anderson as your quarterback and you brush off Josh Allen when he wants to practice with you. I suppose it’s possible he builds off this game, but he’s averaging two receptions per game this season. The combination of Zay Jones and Kelvin Benjamin just isn’t going to strike fear into anyone’s hearts. Sidenote, I was curious what Kelvin Benjamin items there were in the Bills’ team store online and they didn’t have anything. Even their team store has given up on him.
The Takeaway: This is a situation to avoid. I suppose if you had to play someone on the Bills it would be one of the running backs: McCoy if he’s cleared or Ivory if McCoy gets ruled out. Other than that, this is a yucky situation.