NFL Millionaire Maker Ownership Review: Week 15
Welcome to the Week 15 ownership breakdown of DraftKings’ Millionaire Maker. I analyzed the data of all DFSers who submitted 250+ lineups into the big GPP (pros) and compared them against the field, with the analysis focusing on players that were “make-or-break” options.
With over $5,000 at stake, what key players did the pros hone in on and which ones did they fade? The ownership percentages are displayed as an average between all the top players as well as the peak of a single player’s lineups.
Quarterback
1. Russell Wilson $7000, 26.56 points (21.9% owned)
Pros’ average ownership: 7.6 percent, Peak ownership: 60.8 percent
Russell had been red hot over his last three games, averaging 34.8 DK points per game and a 140+ passer rating. A matchup versus against Cleveland, who ranked #26 in pass DVOA seemed to bold well. However, Seattle was favored by 14.5 points at home and with Cleveland ranking #29 in rush DVOA, Seattle would be able to run the ball against the Browns with impunity, running out the clock as they saw fit. Also, Russell had still only been averaging 30 pass attempts over the last three games and his recent run was unsustainable for much longer. With high projected ownership due to his recent performances, Russell was a worthwhile fade who’s stat line could have gone a few different ways depending on game-flow.
2. Philip Rivers $5500, 25.44 points (4.4% owned)
Pros’ average ownership: 9.5 percent, Peak ownership: 47.5 percent
Rivers had been an afterthought over the last few weeks due to his offensive line and receivers going down in groups. The Chargers had only scored a total of three points in three of the last four games they had played. Over those last four games, Rivers’ salary had dropped $1400 to a season-low of $5500 and was certain to be low owned this week. While still chucking the ball 38 times on average during the drought, a matchup against the Dolphins (#31 pass ranked defense) would surely help get Rivers back on track. Even while the public would still be doubting the Chargers, Vegas had them projected to score 24 points (4.8 points over their season average of 19.2). As Stevie Johnson was once again ruled out, Rivers was not a high percentage GPP lock by any means, but still was able to garner 9.5% of pro lineups.
Running Back
1. Charcandrick West $4800, 16.5 points (9.8% owned)
Pros’ average ownership: 18.4 percent, Peak ownership: 99.0 percent
The Baltimore Ravens may have been a dumpster fire this year even before the injuries that sidelined many of their top offensive weapons. However, one of the things they had done right was their run defense, which had been good enough to be ranked #9 by Football Outsiders (only allowing 3.7 YPC). Coupled with the fact that earlier in the week Spencer Ware had been only limited in practice, much of the MM field was off of West, who had limited success in a timeshare situation. Leading up to the game, Ware was reported to be an emergency only option and that the bulk of the carries would be funneled through West. When West had received over 20 carries as the bell cow back in weeks 7 – 10, he averaged 25.7 DK points, running for a touchdown, 4.2 YPC, and averaging 3 receptions. In a game where the Chiefs were favored by 7.5 points over a Jimmy Clausen-lead Ravens team, the pros decided that the volume and game-flow would be too much to pass up.
2. Javorius Allen $4500, 0.8 points (3.6% owned)
Pros’ average ownership: 19.8 percent, Peak ownership: 62.6 percent
Buck Allen had cooled off from a three-game streak of reaching 4x value against a Seahawks defense in Week 14 where the Ravens had been behind most of the game. This week in a matchup against Kansas City, who had been ranked #4 in DVOA against the run and had only allowed one 100-yard rusher all season, Allen hadn’t been mentioned in many RG articles or heavily discussed on the forums. His season average of 3.8 YPC and lack of consistent carries might have scared off plenty of the field. However, his previous success and current value didn’t come from the ground, but his involvement in the pass game and cheap salary. Allen had averaged 6.5 receptions over the last four games (totaling 228 yards, 2 TDs) and was a good bet to see a high number of targets with Jimmy Clausen behind center. At a salary of $4500 and likely floor around 10 points, Allen had potential for much more and was targeted by the pros at a much higher clip than the field.
Wide Receiver
1. Calvin Johnson $6900, 2.9 points (15.9% owned)
Pros’ average ownership: 33.9 percent, Peak ownership: 84.1 percent
Megatron’s salary had been the lowest it had been all season (down $1600 from his peak) and was going up against the fabled Saint’s defense who had been abysmal at all levels: #32 pass DVOA, #27 rush DVOA, #29 pass DVOA vs WR1, #32 DVOA vs TE. At the Mercedes-Benz Superdome where Drew Brees had been at his best this season, the projected game total of 51 was the highest of the slate and many projected it to end in a shoot-out. However, Calvin’s targets had been waning over the course of the season to where Golden Tate had out-targeted him over the last month (Tate’s 9.7 to Calvin’s 9.0). Also, on the surface, it may have seemed that the Saint’s top cornerback in Delvin Breaux (one of PFF’s top CB) would shadow Calvin and neutralize an otherwise juicy matchup. However, over the course of the week, it had been noted that since Rob Ryan was fired, Breaux had only defended one side of the field and Calvin would run most of his routes against Brandon Browner. The recessed salary, prime matchup, and 30-point ceiling forced the hand of the pros to roster Calvin as their Monday night hammer.
2. Doug Baldwin $5800, 20.5 points (38.9% owned)
Pros’ average ownership: 12.4 percent, Peak ownership: 83.2 percent
When a player is on a streak that is being compared to those of Calvin Johnson, Chris Carter, and Jerry Rice, they tend to be a quality DFS play regardless of salary. In this case, the player is Doug Baldwin and he had a salary of only $5800. The field loves nothing more than a player that performed the previous week (much less three weeks) and Baldwin was most likely added to most lineups on sight. The high projected ownership levels of both Russell Wilson and Doug Baldwin may have driven most pros off of them as their current level of performance was unsustainable. Doug had been taking nearly every other catch to the house through his three game streak and was still only averaging 5.7 receptions. Against Johnny Manziel, who would almost certainly struggle, Cleveland would unlikely be able to stay in the game. Even as Cleveland was a plus matchup for Baldwin, the emergence of Jermaine Kearse and Tyler Lockett combined with poor game-flow limited his exposure in the mass entry lineups.
Tight End
1. Antonio Gates $4600, 14.8 points (13.0% owned)
Pros’ average ownership: 26.9 percent, Peak ownership: 97.3 percent
Not much had been going right for the Chargers as discussed earlier, however, Gates had still been receiving a healthy number of targets (average of 8.7 over last three games) and was the Chargers #1 target since Stevie Johnson had been out with injury. With the Chargers likely playing their last game in San Diego, the pressure to perform for the home crowd was a strong narrative to consider. The Chargers were projected to score 4.8 points over their season average and as the #1 target overall as well as in the red zone, Gates was a capable pick during a weekend slate that did not feature any “must play” options (Gronkowski had the highest overall ownership for TE: 15.4%).
2. Richard Rodgers $4300, 1.7 points (6.2% owned)
Pros’ average ownership: 1.8 percent, Peak ownership: 27.8 percent
After a hot start to the season allowing a total of 80 DK points to tight ends through four weeks, the Oakland Raiders were forcing any opposing tight end to become a “must start”. However, over the last nine weeks, the Raiders had only given up 73.4 more points and managed to rank #16 in DVOA versus tight ends. Rodgers had only been averaging 3.8 receptions per game on the season and had very limited yards-after-catch. The majority of Rodgers fantasy scoring depended on his red-zone looks (7 TD on the season) which limited his ceiling and left him with a bottomless floor when he hit paydirt. As Aaron Rodgers had managed to look human on the road this season combined with the limited potential of Richard Rodgers, the pros made sure to stay far away while the field was looking for another hail mary.
Defense & Special Teams
1. Pittsburgh Steelers $2700, 6.0 points (8.5% owned)
Pros’ average ownership: 12.6 percent, Peak ownership: 56.0 percent
Since starting in Week 10, Brock Osweiler had allowed opposing defenses to average 7.6 DK points against him. The Broncos had been limited with Osweiler at the helm, averaging only 17.5 points per game, and only projected to score 19.3 points (2.4 less than their season average of 21.6) as a 6.5-point dog to the Steelers. Osweiler had been getting sacked at a higher rate than Peyton and would look give up more to the Steelers who had been ranked 5th in the league with 38 sacks. The Steelers had intercepted backup quarterbacks twice in each of their last two games and were a good bet to continue the trend against Brock at Heinz Field.
2. Indianapolis Colts $2000, 8.0 points (3.1% owned)
Pros’ average ownership: 10.3 percent, Peak ownership: 51.7 percent
At a minimum salary of $2000 and averaging 6.7 DK points on the season, the Colts were already valued at 3.3x value without considering their matchup. With Brian Hoyer battling the symptoms of his concussion from Week 14, T.J. Yates was slated to start for the Texans. Yates had performed adequately the week prior against the Jets, but was still inexperienced and prone to turnovers. Vontae Davis would be able to slow down DeAndre Hopkins and the Texans would need to lean further on Nate Washington and Ceceil Shorts who had not been able to get going over the last few weeks (Colts DVOA: #10 vs WR1, #16 vs WR2, #30 vs WR3). As the only heavily owned defensive options were Seattle and Kansas City and both over $3700 in price, the Colts DST offered upside with a rock bottom price.