NFL Primetime Preview: Week 1
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Primetime Preview, an all-encompassing preview of Monday Night Football. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s primetime contests.
Every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide a look at how each team fares against opposing offenses from a fantasy points allowed perspective and include some statistics for key players on each team as well.
Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. These breakdowns now feature “Matchup Rating,” which factors in projected point totals, pace, and offense versus defense data to compile an all-around rating that helps determine how favorable of a fantasy matchup each team has this week.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code to get three months of Grinders Incentives for free ($75 value).
Pittsburgh Steelers at Washington Redskins (Monday, 7:10 PM ET)
| Pittsburgh Steelers | Washington Redskins | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -3 | 50 | 26.5 | 3 | 50 | 23.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 25.4 | 7 | 5 | 14 | Offense | 23.9 | 11 | 11 | 20 | |
| Opp. Defense | 24.4 | 19 | 24 | 26 | Opp. Defense | 19.9 | 10 | 30 | 5 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Washington Redskins | 22 | 19 | 30 | 13 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 18 | 4 | 28 | 19 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Brown | 205 | 143 | 10 | 1,953 | Jackson | 54 | 32 | 4 | 545 | |
| Wheaton | 92 | 51 | 5 | 802 | Garcon | 119 | 77 | 6 | 847 | |
| Coates | 5 | 3 | 0 | 72 | Crowder | 82 | 62 | 2 | 619 | |
| Green | 63 | 37 | 4 | 429 | Reed | 131 | 96 | 12 | 1,072 | |
Editor’s Note: Markus Wheaton has been ruled OUT for Week 1.
Vegas Odds – PIT (-3) / O/U 50
Notable injuries and suspensions: Le’Veon Bell (PIT RB) – Out (Suspension) / Markus Wheaton (PIT WR) – Out (Shoulder) / Matt Jones (WAS RB) – Questionable (Shoulder)
PIT Matchup Rating: 8.0
WAS Matchup Rating: 7.5
Pittsburgh Steelers
Quarterback: The Redskins ranked just 25th in pass defense a year ago, but the addition of Josh Norman should help them make massive strides in that department this year. Despite this, expect the Steelers to put up some gaudy stats through the air. With Le’Veon Bell suspended, they will gladly put the game on Ben Roethlisberger shoulders. He is no stranger to putting up 40 pass attempts and 300 yard games even in difficult matchups, and this will likely be no exception. Big Ben is in play for his volume alone in this one, especially with the Steelers projected to put up around 27 points in this game.
Running Game: DeAngelo Williams will step in for the suspended Le’Veon Bell, and the Steelers have the luxury of having a capable backup that knows the offense well. Williams put up solid numbers when given the chance to play last year, but he doesn’t come at a bargain price tag. He is a capable pass-catcher and rushed for 4.5 yards per carry last year, so you can’t argue with the production. Washington’s defense ranked 26th against the run last year, so everything on paper indicates that Williams is in play. It’s just hard to get past the mental hurdle of paying a mid-to-high range price tag for him.
Pass Catchers: Antonio Brown is going to see as many targets as he can handle in the early going. With Le’Veon Bell and Martavis Bryant both out, the Steelers will force the ball into Brown’s hands. He will undoubtedly see a lot of Josh Norman’s coverage in this game, and that is definitely a concern. It will be fun to see how this battle plays out. Thanks to the matchups, I prefer Julio Jones and Odell Beckham over Brown this week. My hope is that Brown has a poor game in order to load up on him over the next few weeks. Outside of Brown, there isn’t a lot we can rely on in the receiving corps. The guy generating the most pre-season buzz has been Eli Rogers, who should see a lot of snaps in the slot. He will be a popular value play on the game slates that extend into Monday, and he will be extremely popular on the Monday-only slates. There’s little upside at the tight end position with Heath Miller gone.
The Takeaway: Roethlisberger and Brown are fine targets based on volume alone, though Washington’s pass defense will be much improved this year with the addition of Josh Norman. After those two, don’t sleep on veteran DeAngelo Williams, who knows the Pittsburgh offense well and has shown that he can be an admirable replacement for Le’Veon Bell. The Steelers are expected to score quite a few points in this game, so getting some exposure to their offense isn’t a bad idea.
MONDAY UPDATE – With Markus Wheaton ruled out, this is a sneaky good spot for Jesse James. He is one of my favorite value options on the two game slate, and you can certainly roll out a TE in the flex on DraftKings, perhaps with a Jordan Reed James”:/players/jesse-james-21584 pairing from this game.
Washington Redskins
Quarterback: You like that? The Redskins have hitched their hopes to once-backup Kirk Cousins, and he did play well in 2015. I expect regression to hit this year, and I am not a believer in Cousins as a top-end NFL quarterback. However, that regression might have to wait a while. The Steelers are vulnerable via the air attack, ranking third worst in the NFL in passing yards allowed last season. This game has sneaky shootout potential and a projected total of 50 points, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if both teams racked up 400 yards of total offense. If you are playing the primetime or Monday-only slates, you need some exposure to this game, and Cousins isn’t a terrible way to get it. On the full week slates, I will likely avoid him.
Running Game: Matt Jones is nursing a shoulder injury but should be healthy enough to start this game. Rob Kelley has earned a role with a solid preseason. Chris Thompson will snag some third down snaps. This is a situation I will be staying far away from, as none of the trio is extremely talented and the team is liable to ride the hot hand during games.
Pass Catchers: This is arguably the greatest strength of the team. The Redskins have a great pair of complementary wideouts in deep threat DeSean Jackson and steady Pierre Garcon, and they have one of the best receiving tight ends in the league in Jordan Reed. Washington is likely to go with a pass-heavy approach because that’s what works for them, and that’s where the weakness is in the Pittsburgh defense. The strongest defensive back the team has is William Gay, but he is 31 years old. He ranked 34th out of 118 qualifiers in coverage last year (per PFF). All three receivers are in play, with Jackson best suited for GPPs, Garcon best suited for cash games, and Reed viable in any format. Whoever avoids Gay’s coverage the most gets an extra boost, as nobody else scares me in this Pittsburgh secondary.
The Takeaway: Washington will likely take to the air in this one. I don’t expect a huge year from Kirk Cousins, but he should play well against a weak Pittsburgh pass defense. He has a trio of viable targets at his disposal in DeSean Jackson, Pierre Garcon, and Jordan Reed.
Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco Niners (Monday, 10:20 PM ET)
| Los Angeles Rams | San Francisco Niners | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -3 | 44 | 23.75 | 3 | 44 | 20.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 17.5 | 29 | 32 | 7 | Offense | 14.9 | 32 | 28 | 21 | |
| Opp. Defense | Opp. Defense | 20.6 | 13 | 23 | 21 | |||||
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| San Francisco Niners | 15 | 32 | 17 | 9 | Los Angeles Rams | 8 | 23 | 8 | 21 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Britt | 72 | 36 | 3 | 681 | Smith | 62 | 33 | 4 | 663 | |
| Austin | 87 | 52 | 5 | 473 | Patton | 57 | 30 | 1 | 394 | |
| Cooper | Ellington | 19 | 13 | 0 | 153 | |||||
| Kendricks | 40 | 25 | 2 | 245 | McDonald | 46 | 30 | 3 | 326 | |
Vegas Odds – LA (-2 1/2) / O/U 44
Notable injuries and suspensions: None of major significance
LA Matchup Rating: 5.5
SF Matchup Rating: 5.0
Los Angeles Rams
Quarterback: The Rams are really starting Case Keenum? Why not just throw Jared Goff right into the fire? Keenum will be handing off to Todd Gurley and getting out of the way. Don’t waste your time.
Running Game: Todd Gurley might carry the ball 30 times if this game stays close. San Francisco ranked 29th in the NFL against the run last year, and Gurley is one of the best running backs in the league. The Rams may actually be able to control the clock with Gurley in this one, and that gives them the best chance to win. The only knock on Gurley is that he won’t be used much in the passing game or on third downs, but game flow isn’t likely to be a concern. If there was a week to use Gurley, this is it. The upcoming schedule is a tough one.
Pass Catchers: What’s worse than having Case Keenum as your starting quarterback? Well, having poor coaching along with Tavon Austin and Kenny Britt as your starting wide receivers might qualify. Austin can sometimes make a play via gadget run plays, but it’s tough to hitch your wagons to that. You can leave this group alone.
The Takeaway: It’s Todd Gurley or nothing for the Rams. You want no part of Case Keenum or the Rams passing game, unless you desperately want the late Monday night sweat. If you choose that option, you better have a six-pack ready to drown your sorrows.
San Francisco 49ers
Quarterback: The 49ers are really starting Blaine Gabbert? Why not just throw Colin Kaep…. oh yeah. Gabbert will be handing off to Carlos Hyde and getting out of the way. Don’t waste your time. I wouldn’t consider Gabbert even if he was guaranteed 60 pass attempts. Seriously, he is one of the worst starting quarterbacks I have seen over the last ten years, and he might be the actual worst. It’s hard to fathom that he still has a starting job.
Running Game: With Aaron Donald and Michael Brockers on the interior of the defensive line, the Rams should be better than 20th in the league against the run. That’s where they ended last season, but a big part of that was because teams could run the ball a lot while nursing late leads. Carlos Hyde is still in the concussion protocol, but he is expected to be cleared in time for this game. If he is a full go, you can use him here. If he is in any way limited, you’ll have to pass. Gurley is the safer pick of the running backs in this game.
Pass Catchers: The San Francisco receiving corps isn’t as bad as the situation on the other side of the ball, but it’s not much better. Torrey Smith is pretty much a deep threat only, and that doesn’t play well with Blaine Gabbert at quarterback. You can go ahead and mark Smith down for the worst season of his career already. Quinton Patton is the other starting wide receiver, and there’s limited upside there. Don’t count on much from Vance McDonald at tight end.
The Takeaway: You’re still reading this? Congratulations, you’ve made it through the most boring game of the week! This will be a nice way to fall asleep on a Monday night after a great weekend of football. Oh, and as for the 49ers, I won’t be targeting their offensive players much this year, unless his name is Carlos Hyde. The Rams defense is actually a decent target in this game, as targeting a defense that is facing a Blaine Gabbert-led offense is a solid week-to-week strategy.