NFL Week 14 Odds, Lines, Spreads: Betting Picks & Predictions for Every Game
We just had a doozy of a Week 13, with the playoff race heating up and the studs separating themselves from the duds. We saw the Lions earn their first win, over the Dalvin Cook-less Vikings (we called that one!). Washington narrowly defeated the Raiders to extend their winning streak to four. Russell Wilson and the Seahawks finally showed up, and showed out against San Fran. The Cardinals, Cowboys, Bucs, and Rams kept rolling in the NFC, while the Chiefs, Chargers, Dolphins, and Patriots had wins in the AFC. New England’s win was the most peculiar—Bill Belichick’s boys managed to beat the Bills despite logging only 19 passing yards, 11 first downs, and a 3-for-12 conversion rate on third downs. Got it? Good! Break!
Every week, we give you NFL betting tips for every single game of the upcoming week’s schedule. We rank the 1:00 p.m. and 4:00 p.m. Sunday games by order of confidence level, and of course provide our best bets for each of the three primetime games.
We crushed our picks last week. We nailed the Thursday Night Football game, correctly picking the Cowboys -4.5 and the UNDER of 47.5 Then we went 7-1 in the 1:00 p.m. games on Sunday, and 10-6 overall on the week. We basically swept our best bets against the spread, and we’re ready to ride that high into what should be another highly-entertaining week. The playoff chase is on—let’s capitalize on teams playing to the best of their abilities!
NFL Week 14 Lines, Picks, and Predictions
Pittsburgh Steelers at Minnesota Vikings -3.5, O/U 44.5
This one’s tough to pick, especially on a Thursday Night Football game. The Steelers are coming off one of their better games of the season (although that’s not saying much), after they knocked off the Ravens 20-19. The Vikings, meanwhile, suffered their worst loss of the season in Week 13, falling to an 0-10-1 Lions squad fueled by a 20-point second quarter. Without top running back Dalvin Cook, I’m tempted to pick the Vikings to lose—or at least not cover—once again. But it’s hard to invest any money whatsoever in “(player-popup #ben-roethlisberger)Ben Roethlisberger”:/players/ben-roethlisberger-11615’s arm. Minnesota is 0-2 as a home favorite against the spread, while Pittsburgh is 3-2 ATS as a road ‘dog. I’ll lean toward the Steelers to cover, but I won’t like it.
PICK Steelers +3.5, OVER 44.5
Early Sunday Games (1:00 p.m. Slate), ranked in order of confidence level
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Football Team +4.4, O/U 47.5
The roster of the Washington Football Team believes in themselves right now, and they have won four straight games. Taylor Heinicke is getting it done under center, Antonio Gibson looks as good as he has all season out of the backfield, and the WFT defense we saw in 2020 seems to have finally reawakened. I can’t possibly pick against this squad right now if they’re getting four points at home. Dallas has lost two of its last three games, and battled countless injuries and COVID scares over the past month. I reckon the Cowboys will win, but not by four points. I know this goes against a lot of betting metrics—Dallas is 5-1 ATS on the road this season, while WFT is 2-4 at home—but I know Ron Rivera’s squad will battle the ‘boys tough at FedEx Field.
PICK: WFT +4.5
New Orleans Saints at New York Jets +5.5, O/U 43.5
The Jets have a genuine problem on their hands: quarterback and No. 2 overall pick Zach Wilson does not appear to be a good NFL QB. He has seemingly channeled his inner Sam Darnold, often seeing ghosts in basic three and four-man pass-rush schemes. He can’t seem to read coverages well, or get through his progressions. He has thrown a touchdown in just three games this season (to be fair, he had 2 TDs in those three games), and he has been intercepted at least once in every game in which he’s thrown the ball over 10 times. He’s flirting with the league lead in picks (11 in 8 games, tied for fourth-most) and interceptions per game (1.38, fourth-highest). He also ranks dead-last in QB rating (66.2) and maintains the second-lowest yards per pass average (5.0). Suffice to say, the Saints defense should be able to take care of business against Wilson on Sunday. Without even knowing what New Orleans will do at QB—”(player-popup #taysom-hill)Taysom Hill”:/players/taysom-hill-36873 looked lost and hurt last week—I think I’m going with the Saints by a touchdown. The Jets just want this season to end, and their defense is playing like it already has.
PICK: Saints -5.5
Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs -9.5, O/U 48.5
The Chiefs have certainly not looked like their usual dominant selves this season, but they have somewhat quietly won five straight games. That includes victories over the Packers and Cowboys, as well as a 41-14 stomping of the Raiders in Vegas. Back in Arrowhead, I suspect Patrick Mahomes and his studly nucleus of offensive weapons should be able to throttle their division rivals once again. Vegas was able to prevail over the Cowboys on Thanksgiving, with Dallas receivers CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper both on the shelf. But that was their only win since October 24, and interim coach Rich Bisaccia often appears to be in over his head. I’ll take Andy Reid and the AFC defending-champs to win their sixth consecutive contest, and fourth-straight by double-digits.
PICK: Chiefs -9.5
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers -2.5, O/U 43.5
It’s a battle of washed-up MVPs in Carolina, with Panthers QB Cam Newton likely starting against Falcons veteran Matt Ryan. Both these squads have battled adversity this season, and neither have much short-term hope. Carolina has now lost elite running back Christian McCaffrey for a second (and final) time this season, and can’t really seem to find an offensive identity without its franchise player (side note: head coach Matt Rhule just fired OC Joe Brady). Atlanta, meanwhile, has struggled since trading wideout Julio Jones to Tennessee, and losing “(player-popup #calvin-ridley)Calvin Ridley”:/players/calvin-ridley-328705—Jones’ former battery mate—to a mental health leave. The Falcons do have talent, though, and I suspect they will mount the upset this week. Veteran RB/WR hybrid Cordarrelle Patterson has been explosive for Atlanta, and Russell Gage has recently emerged as a very capable WR1. If the Dirty Birds can get rookie tight end Kyle Pitts going, this offense might be back in business. Buy a half-point for extra insurance.
PICK: Falcons +3 (buy a half-point)
Seattle Seahawks at Houston Texans +8, O/U 41
Russell Wilson finally looked halfway-decent over the weekend in a big 30-23 win over the Niners, but the 4-8 Seahawks have a long way to go if they even want to sniff the playoffs. The 2-10 Texans just suffered their eighth double-digit loss—Indy beat them 31-0, and held them to 141 total yards of offense (57 air, 84 ground). I’ll take Pete Carroll’s Seahawks over a Houston squad that can barely pass for a professional football team.
PICK: Seahawks -8
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns -2.5, O/U 43
This one feels like a crapshoot. The Ravens just lost 20-19 to the lowly Steelers, but they beat these Browns 16-10 one week prior. Cleveland enjoyed a Week 13 bye following that contest, likely taking the time to rest banged-up QB Baker Mayfield and running back duo Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. I’m leaning towards the Browns at home this week—the Dawg Pound is a tough place to play in December, and Cleveland’s pass-rush should pose problems for Lamar Jackson, who threw for 165 yards and a whopping four INTs when these teams met on Nov. 28. Baltimore might be the worst 8-3 team in the history of the NFL—give me Cleveland and the UNDER here.
PICK: Browns -2.5, UNDER 43
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans -8.5, O/U 43.5
Can we not pick this game and say we did? I don’t know what to think of either of these squads—for a six-game stretch, the Titans looked like the best team in the AFC, but now they look like they can’t win anything without Derrick Henry. Jacksonville has toughed out wins over Buffalo and Atlanta, but gotten walloped by the Niners and Rams. With no Henry or wideout “(player-popup #a-j-brown)A.J. Brown”:/players/a-j-brown-982405—and Julio Jones still presently on IR—I think I’ll take the Jags to cover the +8.5. But I want as much a part of this game as my daughter wants to go to sleep by 9:00 p.m. every day.
Late Games (4:00 p.m. Slate), ranked in order of confidence level
Detroit Lions at Denver Broncos -10, O/U 42.5
The Lions got their first win of the season over Minnesota in Week 13—a game I’ll remind you I picked correctly—and now travel to the Mile High to face the Broncos. I’m taking Detroit to at least cover, something they have done in four of six away games this season. Teddy Bridgewater does not look very good lately, and there’s not much for Broncos fans to be excited about beyond rookie running back Javonte Williams (178 yards from scrimmage, 1 TD in KC Sunday). The Lions may not prevail in their second straight contest, but they’ll at least avoid getting blown out—they haven’t lost by more than three points since Halloween.
PICK: Lions +10
Buffalo Bills at Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3.5, O/U 53.5
I’m still shocked the Bills just lost to the Patriots 14-10, when New England had 19 passing yards on three total passes. How does that happen in the NFL in 2021, never mind to a Buffalo team that ranked second in DVOA in the AFC? I’m not trying to be reactionary, but after what I saw on Monday, there’s no way I can pick the Bills to cover against the reigning Super Bowl champs. Tom Brady always finds a way to capitalize on his opponents’ weaknesses, and Josh Allen is clearly not at that level yet. Expect another strong game from Bucs RB Leonard Fournette, who has been on a tear as of late. I think Tampa Bay covers—pushing its home ATS record to 5-1—and the Bucs top out in the mid 20s in points.
PICK: Buccaneers -3, UNDER 53.5
New York Giants at Los Angeles Chargers -9.5, O/U 43
The Giants have played tough all season, but they never seem to get over the hump. They’ve scored 32 points over the course of the last three weeks—and while they did get a little spark via a 13-7 win over Philly after firing offensive coordinator Jason Garrett, they went right back to getting beat up 20-9 in Miami on Sunday. Now they fly 2,300 miles to SoFi Stadium to take on the Chargers, who are coming off a huge 41-22 win over Cincy. Reigning Rookie of the Year Justin Herbert and the Bolts have many ways to move the chains and put up points. They have dual-purpose running back Austin Ekeler, whose 15 TDs trails only Jonathan Taylor among RBs (he also ranks fourth in yards from scrimmage with 1,181). They also have a dominant wide receiver nucleus in Mike Williams, Keenan Allen, and Jalen Guyton, who combined for 14-234-3 on Sunday. LA should be too much for the travel-weary Giants this weekend, but maybe buy a half-point just to be sure.
PICK: Chargers -9.5 (-114, at FanDuel)
San Francisco 49ers at Cincinnati Bengals -1, O/U 49
It’s crazy to see the Bengals at just -1 at home, after seeing how strong they looked earlier in the season. Well, it’s been a bit of a roller coaster for Cincy. They started 3-1, then 5-2, and now they’re 7-5. They’ve dominated the Steelers, Ravens, and Raiders, but lost to the likes of the Chicago Bears and New York Jets. And this past Sunday was a low point—the Chargers marched into Paul Brown Stadium, put up 16 points in the first quarter and 17 in the fourth, forced four Bengals turnovers, and won 41-22. Yikes. Now Cincy welcomes the Niners, who have won three of their last four games. I’ve got nothing to go by but recent results, so I’m going with San Fran to punch the Bengals in the teeth and mount the slight upset here. The 49ers have two of the top playmakers in the NFL in wideout Deebo Samuel and tight end George Kittle, and if Samuel returns from his groin injury, this is a lock for me. Cincy has playmakers of its own—first-round wideout Ja’Marr Chase is a Rookie of the Year candidate, and second-year stud Tee Higgins has looked more like his explosive self the past couple weeks—but San Fran is a better all-around squad from a better overall conference and division.
PICK: 49ers -1
Sunday and Monday Night Football Picks
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers -12.5, O/U 43.5
The Bears have been pretty brutal, losing six of their last seven games and reeling off the failed Justin Fields experiment at QB. Meanwhile, the Packers are once again great, hovering around the top of the NFC at 9-3. I know most people will smash the Pack -12.5 here, but I’m never so sure about large spreads in primetime games, especially divisional matchups. Green Bay only beat Chicago by 10 earlier this season, and that was when the Bears were still riding the incompetent horse known as Fields. Rodgers and the Pack have only defeated the Bears by 13 one time since 2017, and Chicago’s D still has plenty of pride. With Andy Dalton under center and not Fields, I think Chicago can at least cover at Lambeau. I also like the UNDER, which has hit in eight of 12 games for each of these squads this season.
PICK: Bears +12.5, UNDER 43.5
Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals -2.5, O/U 51.5
Hey, what do you know, another Monday Night Football divisional matchup between two of the top teams in the NFL! At least this one won’t be stunted by a winter storm. The Cardinals have won three of their last four, and look to sweep the Rams after besting them 37-20 on Oct. 3. I’m all over the underdog here, as Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins literally just returned from injury in their Week 13 win over the Bears. Sean McVay and the Rams will be ready for this pivotal game, and their amazing defense should rise to the challenge. This will also be another chance for veteran LA signal-caller Matthew Stafford to show the world he can actually play MVP-level quarterback for a true Super Bowl contender. The Cards are 10-2 and the Rams are 8-4—anyone who knows about the dramatics of primetime football knows that LA will find a way to mount the road upset, and make the remaining playoff race that much more juicy.
PICK: Rams +3 (buy a half), OVER 51.5
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