NFL Week 4 DFS Primer: Ownership Projections and Optimizer Picks
It’s hard to believe, but we’re already nearing the quarter pole of the 2023 NFL season with Week 4 on the horizon. Football season tends to fly by, and then the offseason feels interminable. All that means is we should enjoy it while it’s here, and make a little money along the way, too.
As always, we’ve got you covered from every angle when it comes to NFL DFS for Week 4. Below is a bird’s-eye view of some of the content we’ve published in advance of Sunday’s 12-game slate.
NFL DFS Week 4 Optimizer Picks
Each week, Erik Wardenburg (aka Naapsterman) breaks down his favorite optimizer picks for both DraftKings and FanDuel. He was all over last week’s high-scoring Chargers-Vikings bonanza, though there’s a little less clarity heading into Week 4.
On DraftKings, he’s willing to go right back to the well with Justin Herbert ($7,800) on the heels of his massive outing last Sunday in Minnesota. The Chargers draw another tasty matchup at home against the lowly Raiders. Las Vegas finished dead-last in DVOA against the pass a season ago, and they’re 29th through 3 games this year. Austin Ekeler is also likely to return, which gives Herbert yet another weapon with which to work in this high-octane offense.
D’Andre Swift ($5,700) is another appealing value against the Commanders. Jalen Hurts will always eat into Swift’s ultimate ceiling thanks to his goal-line role, but Swift has been a monster in his two starts since coming to Philly. His salary hasn’t yet adjusted for the role he may play in this backfield moving forward, though it’s worth noting that the $6,000 range on DK has quite a few appealing plays at running back.
Over on FanDuel, we have a trio of receivers making the cut at exactly $6,100 in DJ Moors, Josh Palmer, and Zay Flowers. Palmer is an obvious value with Mike Williams now done for the year, and he’ll get the benefit of facing that aforementioned Raiders defense.
Moore and Flowers are interesting pivots. The Bears offense has been downright anemic so far this season, but they are in a fine spot this week against a Denver defense that surrendered 70 points merely a week ago. Flowers, meanwhile, has been a steady source of targets from Lamar Jackson as the Ravens attempt to transform into a more balanced offense. However, the Cleveland defense on the other side of the matchup is stingy, ranking first in DVOA vs. the pass thus far. However, Odell Beckham and Rashod Bateman are out, which should open up more chances for Flowers.
Week 4 Ownership Projections
RG’s NFL ownership projections are the most accurate in the industry, and using pOWN to your advantage is a major part of being a profitable player. We saw ownership flock to one game last week, but that doesn’t appear to be the case this week. The Dolphins-Bills clash has the highest total of the week, but most of the primary pieces on both sides of that game are pricey. As a result, we could actually see that game go a little under-owned in tournaments.
As of now, the pOWN on DraftKings is congregating around a few less-certain plays. Kyren Williams is a logical option as the Rams prepare to face the Colts on the road. Williams logged every single offensive snap for LA last week against the Bengals, and it’s hard to find running backs with such massive roles nowadays. At just $6,000, Williams’ price tag hasn’t yet risen to reflect how involved he’ll be offensively moving forward.
Some of the other most popular DraftKings plays heading into Week 4 are:
Miles Sanders ($5,800) – 16.41% pOWN
Pat Freiermuth ($3,400) – 18.06% pOWN
Adam Thielen ($4,500) – 16.93% pOWN
Holy Panthers! Carolina does get a juicy matchup at home against those hapless Vikings on Sunday, but let’s not forget the Panthers aren’t a great offense, to begin with. Miles Sanders ($5,800) and Adam Thielen ($4,500) are affordable for their roles, though, which is one reason they’re popping among the most popular options at their respective positions this week.
Sanders is officially questionable with a groin injury, but the team is optimistic that he’ll be able to go. He’s been heavily involved in the passing game with 19 targets, and he should continue to get work there as a safety valve for Bryce Young. Thielen, meanwhile, is cheap for a WR1. He also gets the revenge narrative, if you’re into that sort of thing.
Some of the chalkiest players on FanDuel this week are:
Tutu Atwell ($6,300) – 21.09% pOWN
Jerome Ford ($6,400) – 20.62% pOWN
Tank Dell ($6,200) – 20.03% pOWN
Something tells me shopping in the low-to-mid-$6,000s will be a trendy way to build over on FanDuel. As if Moore, Palmer, and Flowers weren’t enough, we’ve also got Tutu Atwell and Tank Dell projecting for significant ownership in the same range. Both diminutive pass-catchers have been target machines for their respective teams, and we’ve seen already that both offer big-play potential any time they touch the football.
We’re also looking at another big week for Jerome Ford after he smashed as chalk a week ago. This week’s matchup for the Browns against Baltimore isn’t necessarily a breeze, but you could say the same of last week’s against that salty Titans defensive front. Given his big workload, Ford is still cheap on FanDuel compared to the McCaffreys and Pollards of the world.
NFL PrizePicks Pick’em Plays for Week 4
Pick’em sites are all the rage these days, and they’re seemingly becoming more popular by the day. Even if you come up short in your DFS endeavors, you can still enjoy a profitable NFL weekend if you nail your PrizePicks picks. New users can claim a match bonus of up to $100 using our special PrizePicks promo code.
Below are a couple of my favorite PrizePicks picks entering the fourth week of the season. Premium members can get a leg up on the field by using our special PrizePicks Pick’em Tool.
Tony Pollard More Than 71.5 Rushing Yards
Tony Pollard was really the only thing that went right for the Cowboys last week against the Cardinals. He enjoyed his first 100-yard rushing effort of the young season on a season-high 86% of the snaps. Pollard’s 62 carries through 3 games are the second-most in the league, so he’s making the most of his starting opportunity now that Ezekiel Elliott is outta town.
On Sunday, the Cowboys will welcome the Patriots to town. New England is 13th in the league in tDVOA so far this season, so the matchup isn’t a cakewalk. Still, this pick is based on Pollard’s incredible workload. He’s racked up a whopping 48 carries over the last 2 games alone, and he’s averaging 4.3 yards per tote through 3 games.
Even against a capable defense, Pollard should have little issue cracking 71 yards if he’s going to continue to get the ball as frequently as he has been. Rico Dowdle may start to get more reps as the season progresses in an attempt to keep Pollard as fresh as possible for a potential playoff run, but we’re still early in the campaign. Running through Pollard has been fruitful for Dallas, and I don’t expect them to randomly abandon that strategy this week.
Sam Howell Less Than 211.5 Passing Yards
We’re all already looking forward to next Thursday’s Bears-Commanders clash, but this week we’ll see Washington head to Philly for a divisional date with the Eagles. Washington is an 8.5-point underdog on the road here, which is one of the widest spreads of Week 4.
The Eagles’ defense was impressive last season, and they’ve picked up right where they left off this year. They’re 7th in total DVOA, including first against the run.
Given the spread, it’s fair to assume the Commanders may have to give up on Brian Robinson and the run game early on. Still, I’m having a hard time expecting Sam Howell and company to enjoy much more success through the air.
Howell was a disaster in last week’s blowout loss to the Bills. He amassed just 170 yards with 4 interceptions, and he was sacked 9 times. Howell’s now been sacked 19 times already, which is 6 more than any other QB. That talent-laden Philly front will be foaming at the mouth, and Washington’s second-year QB figures to be in for another rough afternoon.