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NFL Weekly Grind Down: Week 13 - Page 2

by Ethan Haskell (Ethan) Last Updated 2014-05-13 18:23:54

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Denver at Kansas City

Denver Broncos Kansas City Chiefs
Broncos Chiefs
Sun – 4:25PM ET Arrowhead Stadium
Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts
-4.5 48.5 26.5 4.5 48.5 22
Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush
Offense 39.0 1 1 12 Offense 24.5 12 26 13
Defense 26.3 26 30 5 Defense 16.3 2 15 20
Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE
Kansas City 12 18 16 1 Denver 27 23 22 30
Rec. Targets Total Seas Last3 Last1 Rec. Targets Total Seas Last3 Last1
Thomas 102 9.2 10.7 9.0 Bowe 78 7.0 10.0 6.0
Welker 95 8.7 8.0 8.0 Avery 56 5.1 4.0 5.0
Decker 86 7.7 5.0 4.0 McCluster 62 5.7 9.0 10.0
Thomas 62 6.2 5.0 Fasano 25 3.6 4.5 5.0

Denver Broncos

I was fortunate enough to get a free ticket into Sunday night’s epic battle between the Patriots and Broncos (big thanks to BirdWings for the invite). I might not have been able to feel any of my extremities but luckily the only part of me not covered by 7 layers of jackets and winter clothes were my eyes. And what they saw was something far more perplexing than Peyton’s inability to play football in cold weather. Bill Belichick dropped two safeties deep on the majority of snaps and the majority of times, Manning audibled to a run. Sure the weather contributed, but Belichick essentially said ‘beat us on the ground’ and Manning didn’t opt to throw on more than 1 or 2 first downs all game. He had his worst game of the season and seemed to be playing scared, especially on a 2 plays late in the game where Aqib Talib left the field temporarily and he audibled into a run and short screen to C.J. Anderson instead of targeting Demaryius in a huge size advantage against Kyle Arrington. In better news, the weather report says 49 and sunny in KC on Sunday so Manning’s fear of the cold should be null for now. He torched this Chiefs secondary, which has been a bit overrated on the whole, for 323 yards and a TD in Week 11. Then last week, Philip Rivers threw for 393 against this KC defense. They’ve been playing a bend-don’t-break opportunistic style all season long and that can catch up to you in a hurry.

On the ground, Knowshon Moreno was superb and became just the 10th RB to rush for 200+ yards in a loss all-time. He got a season high 37 touches after Montee Ball fumbled in the third quarter and saw a heavy dose of the bench. Moreno is listed as questionable but likely will be good to go and could see a very depleted Chiefs front 7. Justin Houston is going to miss Sunday’s contest and Tamba Hali is listed as a game-time decision. If Hali sits as well, Moreno could be in line for another huge game. Still, there have to be some concerns about his recent workload. He’s gotten 64 touches in the last 2 games (a 32 per game average), after not getting 20 touches in any game from Weeks 1-11. Overall, the Broncos have gone from a 58% pass-play percentage average on the season to just 52% over their last three.

Kansas City Chiefs

Alex Smith has experienced more losing in the last two weeks than he has in a long time, and funnily enough that has lead to two of his best fantasy performances. It’s always a good idea to target quarterbacks who are trailing, and the Vegas lines would indicate that he could be in that situation again on Sunday. The Chiefs are 5 point home underdogs and Smith has posted 22.4 and 22.5 FP outputs in their two losses. Denver’s secondary was carved apart by Brady in New England and are allowing the 7th most FPPG to opposing QBs over their last 3 games. One other note on the Chiefs passing game. While Avery and Bowe snagged the touchdowns in Week 12 from Smith, it was actually Dexter McCluster who was targeted most often. He saw 10 targets from Smith compared to just 5 for Bowe and 6 for Avery.

Still, the highlight of the Chiefs offense was on full display last week. Jamaal Charles was in Lynch-like beast mode with 150 total yards and 2 scores. He had 78 yards on 16 carries against the Broncos 2 weeks ago and could have even more in their Week 13 game. Kevin Vickerson was lost for the year on Denver’s D-line and was a huge part of their rush D. Charles can also contribute in the passing game, which could lead to big stats if the Chiefs fall behind. The Broncos are certainly vulnerable in the screen game, as shown by Shane Vereen in Week 12 with 8 catches for 60 yards. Vereen also dropped 2 balls that would’ve easily gone for 25+ yards each.

DEN @ KC – Daily Fantasy Relevant

Chicago at Minnesota

Chicago Bears Minnesota Vikings
Bears Vikings
Sun – 1:00PM ET Mall of America Field
Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts
1 49 24 -1 49 25
Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush
Offense 27.5 4 7 21 Offense 24.2 14 25 11
Defense 28.1 28 13 32 Defense 31.5 32 29 25
Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE
Minnesota 31 31 24 27 Chicago 10 28 11 26
Rec. Targets Total Seas Last3 Last1 Rec. Targets Total Seas Last3 Last1
Marshall 115 10.5 11.3 12.0 Jennings 62 6.2 3.5 3.0
Jeffery 104 9.4 12.3 8.0 Simpson 69 6.2 4.0 4.0
Bennett 31 Patterson 48 4.4 8.0 11.0
Bennett 69 6.2 4.3 5.0 Carlson 38 3.5 6.3 5.0

Chicago Bears

The Bears got bludgeoned on the ground by the Rams, and now are in dire need of a W with Detroit knocking off Green Bay on Thursday. The good news for Chicago was McCown playing catch up, as he totaled 352 yards and 2 TD passes. He’s now scored 20+ FP in 2 of his 3 full games and has proven to be a reliable replacement for Cutler in this Bears offense. He has an extremely juicy matchup on paper against a Vikings defense that ranks 3rd to last in the NFL on PFF’s pass coverage ratings along with allowing the most FPPG to opposing QBs over their last 3 games and the 2nd most over their past 5. 8 of their 11 opposing passing offenses on the year have had multiple pass TDs as well. In terms of who McCown will throw to, he has the incredible duo of Alshon Jeffery and Brandon Marshall. Both are averaging 10+ targets per game over the last month but deciding between the two can be a challenge. Since the Bears Week 8 bye, here are their comparative FPPG totals by week:

marshall%20jeffery

Only once have both WRs been able to score over 15 FP with McCown playing the majority of snaps in that span. While both are talented, there is some serious concern when it comes to stacking the Bears passing game with McCown/Marshall/Jeffery.

On the ground, the Vikings might be without LB Erin Henderson who is 2nd on the team in tackles after a DUI arrest. There’s no official word on whether he’ll be suspended by the team or not, but definitely keep an eye out for that when considering Matt Forte. Speaking of injuries and Forte, Matt looks good to go this weekend despite some earlier concerns that he might miss this game with a knee injury. Forte has been an absolute machine in the passing game for Chicago, and he was targeted 9 more times last week. In the 4 games with McCown under center for most of the game, Forte has no less than 6 targets. He should also be able to find success in the rush game as MIN ranks 6th worst on PFFs rushing ratings and they’ve allowed opposing backs to the 6th most FPPG over their past three.

Minnesota Vikings

Minnesota is a somewhat surprising one point favorite in this one, but the key reasoning behind that has to be Adrian Peterson. The workhorse Vikings tailback had his 2nd 100+ yard game in his last 4 against the Packers and faces a Bears defense that couldn’t stop a high school back at this point. That defense could be a little tougher than usual, with both Stephen Pea and Jay Ratliff practicing Friday but still there’s not a whole lot of worry for Peterson in this matchup. The Bears rank dead last in rush defense on PFF and have now allowed 100+ yards to an opposing back in 5 of their last 6 games. The only back to not reach 100 yards was Alfred Morris, who fell just 5 yards shy.

The Vikes passing game is a lot less clear, as Christian Ponder is about as hit or miss as they come. They have a great matchup as well and the Bears might be without another DB in Major Wright on Sunday. Wright apparently was injured during Friday’s practice. It’s looking like Wright sits, so they’d be losing one of their best tackling defensive backs as well as another key piece of their defense on the whole. One of Ponder’s best targets might be Cordarrelle Patterson, who now has 20 targets over his past two games and is on the full-fledged fantasy radar. Much like Percy Harvin, who Ponder had a good amount of success with, Patterson can play a number of roles on the field and is an extremely athletic wideout who just needs the ball in his hands and he can score on any given play. He reeled in 8 of those 11 Week 12 targets for 54 yards as well.

CHI @ MIN – Daily Fantasy Relevant

Tampa Bay at Carolina

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Carolina Panthers
Buccaneers Panthers
Sun – 1:00PM ET Bank of America Stadium
Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts
8 41.5 16.75 -8 41.5 24.75
Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush
Offense 19.2 28 28 19 Offense 23.5 17 30 9
Defense 23.5 14 21 9 Defense 13.7 1 7 3
Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE
Carolina 1 7 4 14 Tampa Bay 28 11 21 20
Rec. Targets Total Seas Last3 Last1 Rec. Targets Total Seas Last3 Last1
Jackson 116 10.6 7.7 3.0 Smith 90 8.3 8.3 8.0
Underwood 22 3.3 3.7 5.0 Lafell 66 5.7 7.0 5.0
Owusu 7 1.8 0.0 0.0 Ginn Jr. 4.5 5.7 10.0
Wright Olsen 67 6.3 6.7 9.0

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Buccs took down the Lions in Detroit in Week 12 in impressive fashion. With Glennon at the helm, their offense has now recorded 22+ points in 4 straight games and they’re on a 3-game win streak. They certainly face a tough matchup on Sunday as they visit the red hot Panthers. The biggest drawback to targeting any Buccs this week will be the pace that Carolina plays at. They’re second in the NFL in time of possession per game, which probably takes away 1-2 possessions from an opponent each week. And while they control the ball for the majority of the game, they run just the 15th most plays per game. That pace can make a defense which has been strong upfront but at times porous in the secondary, look a lot better. The last two QBs to face Carolina both had 290+ passing yards, but CAR has yet to allow an opposing QB to throw for multiple TDs. Their biggest weakness may be against WR1’s though, and as Mike Wallace demonstrated in Week 12, you can definitely get over the top of their secondary for big yardage. Vincent Jackson disappointed last week, but did have 5 catches for nearly 80 yards in an earlier matchup vs. the Panthers. In that Week 8 matchup it’s also worth noting that Glennon had 275 passing yards and a TD. He also may see a little more time in the pocket with DE Charles Johnson again ruled out for Week 13. The last thought on Tampa would be to mention Tiquan Underwood’s huge day in Week 12. The most important stat to take from that is 5. That’s the number of times he was targeted. He won’t produce like that with so few targets very often.

On the ground, I’ll keep this fairly short and sweet. Bobby Rainey ran into a freight train of a front seven in Detroit. But he looks like a matchup-only play at this point. He’s not talented enough to break a big day against a quality run defense like Carolina’s. He’ll continue to get a good number of carries, but the Buccs should be trailing in this one so you’re unlikely to see him get enough touches to be relevant.

Carolina Panthers

Cam Newton led the Panthers on an impressive comeback in Week 12 over the Dolphins. In Week 13, he could be facing a Revis-less Buccs defense. Obviously this is huge news to monitor, so keep an eye out on Sunday for Darrelle’s status. If he sits, the entire passing game here gets a big boost. Looking back at the earlier matchup with TB, Newton was able to throw for 2 scores and rush for another. This Tampa defense has really been horrid against QBs, allowing 7 straight to throw for two or more TDs. Newton makes for a dynamic play this weekend. As far as the receiving corps goes, it’s pretty simple to break down. If Revis sits, Smith should be able to take advantage of any replacement option that TB has. If Revis plays, Brandon LaFell becomes an immediate sleeper. Just look at TB’s recent performance against some WR’s not covered by Revis:

There could be plenty of openings for Brandon Lafell or Ted Ginn against this secondary. Greg Olsen will also be a valuable weapon for Newton. Olsen has a receiving TD in four of his last 5 games.

On the ground, a murky situation could be a whole lot clearer come Sunday morning. All three backs are technically listed as questionable. DeAngelo Williams looks the least likely to play, and that would leave Stewart and Tolbert as the primary ball carriers. Quick note, if all three play this is an absolute avoid situation. They can’t produce enough with all of them healthy to be fantasy relevant. But if Williams sits, Stewart becomes a nice value option. Tampa’s run defense ranks 7th worst in the NFL on PFF’s rush D ratings and they Carolina is a heavy favorite which could lead to a lot of touches for Stewart.

TB @ CAR – Daily Fantasy Relevant

St. Louis at San Francisco

St. Louis Rams San Francisco 49ers
Rams 49ers
Sun – 4:05PM ET Candlestick Park
Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts
9.5 42 16.25 -9.5 42 25.75
Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush
Offense 24.2 14 23 15 Offense 24.9 11 32 6
Defense 23.2 12 22 13 Defense 16.7 4 4 12
Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE
San Francisco 5 19 8 2 St. Louis 13 29 18 3
Rec. Targets Total Seas Last3 Last1 Rec. Targets Total Seas Last3 Last1
Givens 63 5.7 5.0 6.0 Boldin 82 7.5 6.7 6.0
Austin 59 Manningham 17 5.7 5.7 7.0
Pettis 49 4.5 0.0 0.0 Patton 2 0.5
Cook 61 5.7 3.5 5.0 Davis 61 6.1 4.7 7.0

St. Louis Rams

The Rams moved to 5-6 last week after knocking off their second consecutive playoff contender. In their last three games, they’re averaging an incredible 33.6 points per game. So what’s the secret? For starters, they aren’t turning the ball over. They’re averaging just one giveaway per game during that span. It really goes unnoticed for fantasy, but the turnover margin can swing the tempo of a game in a hurry and end up benefiting or stalling guys on your roster. The 2nd key has been their ability to run the football. They are averaging an absurd 187 rushing yards per game over the last three weeks. Zac Stacy goes down last week and Benny Cunningham comes in for 100+ yards. Tavon Austin broke a 60 yard TD run as well. It doesn’t hurt that they’ve drawn some pretty bad rush defenses, but it remains impressive that they’ve averaged 5.7 yards per carry over any significant amount of time. Zac Stacy is currently listed as questionable but did go through some limited practice late in the week and his status could change the way you view your daily lineups a bit. Cunningham looked great in fill-in duty last weekend and whoever plays will play a San Fran defense that is middle of the league in DvP rankings for the season, last 5 and last 3 game splits. In fact, they’ve held opposing backs to some low totals but haven’t really been great in terms of Yards Per Carry against in their last 5 games against RB1’s:

The stats aren’t outstanding but avoiding SF’s defense like the plague may not be as necessary as general perception would indicate.

Through the air, there’s not much to talk about. Kellen Clemens is a game manager, like a poor man’s Alex Smith. He won’t throw enough to be relevant and if he’s forced to, he’s very unlikely to produce at a high rate. The receiving corps has been better in recent weeks, with Tavon Austin continuing to have big play capabilities, but this 49ers pass defense is 2nd in the NFL on PFF in terms of pass coverage so I’d be shocked to see them make the same mistakes in coverage that Indy or Chicago struggled with.

San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers snapped a 2-game losing streak on MNF last week but are in the thick of a wild card race right now with divisional rival Arizona breathing down their necks. They are coming off 2 tough road games on prime time, which typically tells me to expect some general fatigue. The best news to come out of that game was Colin Kaepernick and his ability to successfully throw the ball, albeit against a pretty poor Redskins secondary. Kaep ended up with 250+ passing yards for the first time since Week 7 and just the third time all season. Vernon Davis and Anquan Boldin both found the end-zone and combined for 160 of those 250 receiving yards along with over 50% of Kaep’s targets. Mario Manningham also played well and caught four balls for 45 yards. They’ll face a St. Louis defense that has been one of the best examples of ‘targeting QBs who are underdogs’ as they seem to get torched by opposing Quarterbacks and receiving corps when they have a lead. In the past two weeks, where they’ve won by a combined 51 points, they’ve allowed 350+ passing yards to both QB with 3 total Pass TDs. In the three losses prior to that, they had only allowed a max of 205 passing yards against. With the 49ers favored, I don’t think STL will be able to drop back into prevent defense all too often. One other note in the 49ers passing game, Michael Crabtree is expected to return this week, but will be on a strict snap count.

With that said, the Rams front seven might be the most dangerous in the game when it comes to rushing the passer. They only got to McCown once in Week 12 but remain as the #3 overall pass rush D on PFF’s ratings heading into Week 13. So it’s a little surprising that they have a negative rush defense rating on PFF despite their strong pass rush. They’ve allowed the 5th most FPPG to opposing backs over their last 3 and last 5 game splits, letting RBs total around 25 FPPG against them. Frank Gore is no stranger to breaking out against the Rams defense. He had his best rushing day of the season back in Week 4 when he was able to get loose for 153 yards on 20 touches. But there are a lot of concerns with rostering Gore right now. His touches are trending downwards big-time.

gore2

Since Week 8, he’s been trending downwards in both total touches per game and fantasy points per game. That’s not the way you want to be headed and while it’s possible they’re trying to save him for the postseason, it doesn’t make you feel all that comfortable with rostering him for DFS purposes. One last note on Gore, he’s listed as questionable but is expected to play on Sunday.

STL @ SF – Daily Fantasy Relevant

NFL Grind Down Page 2 – Page 3

About the Author

Ethan
Ethan Haskell (Ethan)