NFL Weekly Grind Down: Week 15 - Page 3
San Francisco at Tampa Bay
| San Francisco 49ers | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | |||||||||
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| Sun – 1:00PM ET | Raymond James Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
| -5 | 41 | 23 | 5 | 41 | 18 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 24.3 | 11 | 32 | 6 | Offense | 18.8 | 30 | 31 | 21 | |
| Defense | 16.5 | 3 | 4 | 10 | Defense | 22.4 | 11 | 17 | 9 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Tampa Bay | 25 | 6 | 16 | 16 | San Francisco | 3 | 13 | 7 | 2 | |
| Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | |
| Boldin | 104 | 7.9 | 9.0 | 8.0 | Jackson | 129 | 10.0 | 5.3 | 8.0 | |
| Crabtree | 12 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 8.0 | Underwood | 31 | 3.6 | 4.7 | 5.0 | |
| Manningham | 21 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 4.0 | Owusu | 10 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.0 | |
| Davis | 69 | 5.8 | 5.0 | 3.0 | Wright | |||||
San Francisco 49ers
With an over/under of just 41 points, it’s safe to not expect a whole lotta fireworks in this game. The 49ers passing game may have what appears to be a strong fantasy matchup, as the Buccs rank 25th against QBs on the season, but the numbers tell a different story. Tampa has forced 15 interceptions in the last 6 weeks and 10 over their last 3 weeks. They picked of EJ Manuel 4 times in Week 14 and Stafford 4 times in Week 12. They’ve also got Cam Newton and Matt Ryan a couple of times each in recent weeks. They haven’t had a soft schedule and their defense has still been swarming in their past few games. Kaepernick will have his hands full and while his fantasy impact has improved over his last four, he still hasn’t had the same upside he offered a year ago. He has just 1 20 fantasy point performance since Week 8. On the outside, it looks to be a tough matchup for Anquan Boldin who will see a whole lot of Darrelle Revis. The softest aspect of the Buccs defense has been against WR2’s when Revis has shadowed an opponent’s WR1. I’m not sure that Boldin is good enough to require the shadow treatment, but he should at least be followed around by Revis for the majority of plays which will open up the field for Michael Crabtree. Crabtree played on 88% of offensive snaps in Week 14 which was impressive for just his 2nd game back. He was also targeted 8 times which tied with Boldin for the most on the team.
The rush game for San Fran had been stumbling of late but Gore managed 110 yards on 17 touches in a huge Week 14 game against Seattle. Harbaugh seems to be leaning on Gore a bit more again in the last two weeks, but his touches likely depend on the game situation. If Tampa keeps this close, Gore should see 15-18 carries but if it gets to a double digit spread then he’ll likely rest and give way to Kendall Hunter. The bigger issue could be the matchup against a Tampa defense that hasn’t allowed a rush TD in any of their last 3 games and hasn’t allowed 100+ yards to an opposing RB since Week 9 against Beast Mode Lynch.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa has won four of their last 5 contests and absolutely embarrassed the Bills in Week 14. Their defense has been the key to that success, along with some impressive fill-in work for Bobby Rainey. Fantasy wise, Rainey seems to be a matchup option only but he’s going to see 18+ touches every week. He exploited the Falcons and Bills rush defenses but struggled against the Lions and struggled at times against the Panthers. The 49ers rush defense has been subpar this year and is coming off their 6th consecutive game with at least 75 rush yards allowed. In 2012, San Fran was 1st on PFF’s rush defense ratings on the year but they rank 12th on those same ratings in 2013. It’s still the top-half of the league, but they haven’t been that same defense that was a ‘must-avoid’ as they were a year ago.
The passing game for Tampa was pretty quiet in Week 14, but protecting a huge lead they weren’t forced to do all that much. As 5 point dogs this week, they could be throwing a whole lot more. Vincent Jackson will match up on the outside with Tramaine Brock who ranks 3rd on PFF’s coverage ratings. He should effectively eliminate Jackson, putting a heavier weight on Tiquan Underwood and Timothy Wright. Wright has been entirely boom or bust this season and had his 2nd consecutive game with just 2 receptions in Week 14. He did find the end zone, but SF ranks 4th over the last three weeks against the TE position and 5th over the last 5 weeks, so it will be an uphill battle for the rookie. Overall, this young offense could be in for a long day against this SF secondary.
SF @ TB – Daily Fantasy Relevant
- Colin Kaepernick – Kaep stays in play because of his ability to rush out of the pocket, something Tampa has struggled with this year. They’ve faced Cam Newton twice and Russell Wilson once and here were the rushing results:
1) Cam Newton – Week 8 – 11 rushes, 50 rush yards, 1 rush TD
2) Russell Wilson – Week 9 – 6 rushes, 36 rush yards, 1 rush TD
3) Cam Newton – 5 rushes, 68 rush yards, 1 rush TD
- Michael Crabtree – His price tag is still enticing in a few spots and he makes for a nice GPP option this weekend. At $5500 on FD and $9100 on SS he has moderate value. His best value is at $6.8K on DS, $4K on DK and $8.8K on FTD.
- Bobby Rainey – He’s the only Buccs offensive player who could be worth playing this weekend. His price has jumped on most sites after a 100+ yard game last weekend so he’s not worth the tag in a number of places, but he could provide strong value at $9K on DS.
Seattle at NY Giants
| Seattle Seahawks | New York Giants | |||||||||
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| Sun – 1:00PM ET | MetLife Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
| -7 | 41 | 24 | 7 | 41 | 17 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 27.5 | 3 | 21 | 3 | Offense | 19.3 | 28 | 16 | 27 | |
| Defense | 15.8 | 2 | 1 | 14 | Defense | 25.7 | 21 | 15 | 11 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| NY Giants | 18 | 15 | 9 | 20 | Seattle | 1 | 7 | 1 | 10 | |
| Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | |
| Tate | 80 | 6.2 | 6.5 | 8.0 | Cruz | 116 | 8.8 | 5.7 | 6.0 | |
| Harvin | 1 | 1.0 | Nicks | 86 | 7.1 | 4.5 | 7.0 | |||
| Rice | 35 | 4.4 | Randle | 68 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 4.0 | |||
| Miller | 45 | 4.1 | 5.5 | 3.0 | Myers | 59 | 4.7 | 6.0 | 7.0 | |
Seattle Seahawks
Seattle will try to bounce back from just their second loss of the season against the 49ers in Week 14. Things could be challenging on the road this week and while the matchup against a fading Giants team doesn’t seem to daunting, the Seahawks are racking up injuries left and right, specifically in their passing game. Percy Harvin is not expected to return for this game and Doug Baldwin has yet to practice this week. If both can’t suit up, Golden Tate will instantly become a wideout to look at against this Giants defense. This Giants secondary has allowed 15.7, 13.1, 10.6 and 19.4 FP to the last 4 WR1’s they’ve faced (half point PPR), and are certainly vulnerable to giving up yardage through the air. Tate had seen a drop in targets before last week, netting just 9 total looks in Weeks 11 and 13 combined, but was thrown at 8 times last Sunday alone and would be a near lock for somewhere in the 8-12 target range if both Baldwin and Harvin cannot take the field.
As 7 point favorites, you have to figure the rushing attack for Seattle will play a big role late in games and that will be difficult against a Giants rush defense that ranks 5th best on PFF’s rush D ratings. They’ve been without Jason Pierre-Paul for 2 weeks now though, and while they held up well against Alfred Morris, they let Ryan Mathews gash them for 100+ yards and a score in Week 14. Pierre-Paul was one of the best run-stoppers on this defense and Marshawn Lynch would see a huge boost if JPP was unable to take the field on Sunday (and it looks like it’s heading that way). Beast mode has been closer to least mode though in recent weeks, and despite scoring 4 total TDs in his last 3 games he has rushed for no more than 72 yards. The best aspect of his matchup on Sunday may come in the passing game, even if that’s not something he’s often involved in. The Giants allow the 5th most receiving yards to opposing RBs at 50.5 yards per game and have allowed over 60 receiving yards to opposing backs in each of their last three games.
New York Giants
I can’t explain how relieved I am that Eli finally has a tough matchup. It just means that there will be absolutely no urge to play him. I fought as hard as I could last week to show that he’s just not an intelligent DFS play, and to show that he’s had some of the best matchups of any QB this season and has floundered at every turn, but still he was 8-10% owned in most of the large field events. This weekend he gets a Seattle defense that tops the NFL in pass coverage according to the PFF ratings and hasn’t even allowed a QB to throw for over 200 yards since Week 7. Just avoid the Giants passing game here, there’s no value to be had.
The ground game is another story as the Seahawks front seven showed signs of weakness against yet another physical back in Frank Gore in Week 14. Gore rushed for 110 yards on just 17 carries and physically man-handled Seattle, much like Arian Foster, Zac Stacy and Mike James have had success doing this season as well. It marked the 6th time this year that an offense has been able to rack up 100 or more rushing yards against them and teams that have truly committed to running the football have been able to find the most success. Andre Brown’s touches are down a bit in recent weeks, but there’s no chance Tom Coughlin can rely on Eli against the SEA secondary so he should be forced to put the ball in Brown’s hands 20-25 times via the rush. In both games where Brown has seen 20 or more carries this year he’s been able to break the 100 yard marker.
SEA @ NYG – Daily Fantasy Relevant
- Russell Wilson – The Giants biggest weakness is the passing game and Wilson is a really safe cash game play. He had 18+ FP in 4 straight games before last week’s tough loss in San Fran, and should bounce back nicely here.
- Golden Tate – Tate has a juicy $5K price point on FanDuel and $4.4K price point on DraftKings that really stands out to me. $7600 on DraftDay isn’t bad either, and he’s a solid tournament option for Week 15.
- Zach Miller – He’s been boom or bust this year but if the Seahawks are without Baldwin and Harvin he should be more involved in the passing game against a defense that ranks 6th worst vs. tight ends over the last 3 weeks.
- Andre Brown – Brown is a GPP play that could win you a large tournament this weekend because his price is a little inflated and most people will avoid the Seahawks at all costs. Brown’s at home and faces a defense that has been beaten up on the ground at times this year. For just $10K on DS, he might be a nice value option.
New Orleans at St. Louis
| New Orleans Saints | St. Louis Rams | |||||||||
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| Sun – 1:00PM ET | Edward Jones Dome | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
| -5.5 | 46.5 | 26 | 5.5 | 46.5 | 20.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 26.4 | 7 | 2 | 25 | Offense | 22.2 | 20 | 26 | 17 | |
| Defense | 18.7 | 5 | 3 | 17 | Defense | 23.7 | 14 | 22 | 13 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| St. Louis | 13 | 29 | 15 | 3 | New Orleans | 4 | 11 | 8 | 6 | |
| Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | |
| Colston | 81 | 6.8 | 8.7 | 13.0 | Austin | 69 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 3.0 | |
| Stills | 42 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 2.0 | Givens | 74 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 2.0 | |
| Moore | 39 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 4.0 | Pettis | 55 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 3.0 | |
| Graham | 119 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 11.0 | Cook | 73 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 6.0 | |
New Orleans Saints
New Orleans heads to St. Louis to play in the Edward Jones Dome against a Rams defense that has been obliterated through the air over the last four games. We started this list last week for quarterbacks against the Rams since the injury to Cortland Finnegan but it keeps getting worse so we’ll take another look:
- Andrew Luck – 353 PaYd, 1 PaTD, 2 INT
- Josh McCown – 352 PaYd, 2 PaTD, 1 INT
- Colin Kaepernick – 275 PaYd, 1 PaTD, 0 INT
- Carson Palmer – 269 PaYd, 1 PaTD, 0 INT
That’s four straight games with 250 passing yards allowed and while Brees is much better at home, St. Louis still plays in a dome so that high octane offense of the Saints should have no problem adjusting. Last weekend, Marques Colston stole the show while reeling in 9 balls for 125 yards and 2 scores. Jimmy Graham was a solid red zone target and got 2 scores of his own but Brees’ commitment to getting Colston more involved was great to see for DFS purposes. Colston lead the Saints in targets with a season high 13 looks. On Sunday he’ll see a whole lot of Janoris Jenkins in coverage. Jenkins ranks 82nd on PFF’s coverage ratings and has been burnt for 95+ yards by four consecutive WR1’s. As good as the numbers for QBs have been vs. STL, the WR1 game logs are arguably more impressive.
- T.Y. Hilton – 7 Rec, 130 RecYd, 0 TD
- Brandon Marshall – 10 Rec, 117 RecYd, 1 TD
- Anquan Boldin – 9 Rec, 98 RecYd
- Larry Fitzgerald – 12 Rec, 96 RecYd, 1 TD
Colston should be able to exploit this secondary often in Week 15 and could put together his first back-to-back solid game streak of the year.
I’m not going to break down the Saints rushing game since they don’t run the ball, but instead I’ll look at Jimmy Graham in a bit more depth in terms of his matchup. The Rams have allowed 62, 82 and 74 yards receiving to opposing tight ends over their last three games to go along with two touchdowns. The 13.6 FPPG allowed in that stretch is the 4th worst in the NFL and Graham is back to where he was at the beginning of the year in terms of ‘paying up for Graham’ or dropping down to a cheap tight end. With no more Gronkowski, your decision each week should involve asking yourself if you think anyone in ‘the field’ can outscore Graham. This week, I’m betting on Graham in a choice matchup.
St. Louis Rams
Kellen Clemens had his 4 game TD pass streak snapped in Arizona, which isn’t all that surprising because it is Kellen Clemens we’re talking about. He could have a decent day here though against the Saints defense that has allowed 301 pass yards and 1.5 passing touchdowns in their last two road games. He’s not quite relevant himself, but a couple of his receiving options may be. Tavon Austin has been quiet recently but did break a 56 yard run last weekend and continues to show big play ability. Austin has done his most damage this year when given the ball in space on crossing patterns over the middle and working out of the backfield. The Saints inside linebackers rank in the bottom third in terms of pass coverage among qualified ILB’s on ProFootballFocus and can be exploited by the speedy Austin. If he’s able to get by them into open space, he has the talent to take it to the house at any time.
The best matchup will be on the ground for STL though, and while the Saints have looked better in recent weeks against the run, their uptempo offensive style tends to mask some issues on their defense by forcing opponents into uncomfortable situations. On the road, St. Louis should be able to maintain the run for at least 2.5-3 quarters and Zac Stacy has to see closer to 20 touches if the Rams want to stay in this ball game. In the three games where an opposing back has gotten at least 18 touches against NO, the results have been huge fantasy lines:
- Week 2 – Doug Martin – 29 carries, 144 yards, 0 TD
- Week 6 – Stevan Ridley – 20 carries, 96 yards, 2 TD
- Week 9 – Chris Ivory – 19 carries, 139 yards, 1 TD
All three of those huge performances came on the road as well.
NO @ STL – Daily Fantasy Relevant
- Drew Brees – He’s not quite as consistent as Peyton but should be a lock for 300 yards and 2-3 TDs this weekend. He’s a great play in all formats if you can afford him, and with Manning going on Thursday he’s likely the top priced QB for any Sunday games.
- Marques Colston – Love Colston this weekend in a terrific matchup outlined above. His price tag went up by $4.5K on DS and $1100 on DK, but it didn’t move on FanDuel and he’s a complete bargain at $5700.
- Jimmy Graham – He’s the top priced healthy tight end across the board and you need him to post a 20 FP game and have no other commonly used tight end come near that total for him to be a good GPP option. I don’t love paying up for him in tournaments, but in cash games he’s always a great choice.
- Zac Stacy – Love the $6.7 tag on FD and $10K tag on DS, which are both just .5 point PPR so the pass-catching backs have a little less value. Since Stacy hasn’t contributed much through the air, he’s more likely to be a top $/pt back on those sites.
- Tavon Austin – The definition of boom or bust, Austin has 3 games over 17 fantasy points on the year and the rest are all under 10 fantasy points. He might not be worth the $5.5K tag on DraftKings, but at that same price on DraftStreet and just $5K on DraftDay he’s an extreme value. He’s also cheap on Feud at $78K.
Update: I somehow missed that Austin has missed practice all week and is in a boot. He’s very questionable for Sunday. If he sits, Chris Givens, Jared Cook and Stedman Bailey will all get a boost