Phillies vs. Cardinals Odds, Picks, and Prediction
Phillies vs. Cardinals Odds
| Phillies Odds | -122 |
| Cardinals Odds | -104 |
| Over/Under | 6.5 |
| Date | Saturday, Oct. 8 |
| Time | 8:37 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN2 |
On Saturday evening, the Philadelphia Phillies and the St. Louis Cardinals will battle under the lights at Busch Stadium in Game 2 of their National League Wild Card series. The Phillies were held off of the scoreboard through eight innings In Game 1, but scored six runs in the 9th inning to take a 1-0 series lead. Hoping to advance to the next round, Philadelphia will send Aaron Nola to the hill. He will be opposed by Miles Mikolas, who will be looking to keep St. Louis’ season alive. Oddsmakers have these two teams competitively priced, with the Phillies listed as slight -122 road favorites on the money line.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where MLB bettors can find value at sportsbooks for Game 2 of the National League Wild Card Round.
Philadelphia Phillies
In 2022, Aaron Nola had a 3.25 ERA, 2.74 xERA, 2.58 FIP, and a 0.96 WHIP. It was the seventh season in a row in which he was at least 11 percent better than league average, and the third year in a row in which he was at least 22 percent better than league average – measured by FIP. Nola was particularly good down the stretch, with a 2.36 ERA, 1.95 FIP, 33.6 strikeout percentage, 5.2 percent walk rate, and a 0.90 WHIP in six September starts. On the road this year, he was dominant, posting a 2.10 FIP and a 0.96 WHIP. He has no concerning splits against left- or right-handed batters, making him a great option for the Phillies as they look to wrap-up this series.
Philadelphia’s offense struggled mightily against southpaws during the latter portion of the regular season, which we saw continue yesterday, with the Phillies being held scoreless by Jose Quintana. However, this offense was much better against right-handed pitching across the last month heading into the playoffs – ranking 6th in OPS, 4th in ISO, 12th in walk rate, and 8th in strikeout percentage. In that span, Kyle Schwarber, J.T. Realmuto, Brandon Marsh, Bryce Harper, Bryston Stott, and Rhys Hoskins each posted a .722 OPS or better against right-handed pitching. Schwarber and Realmuto combined for 16 home runs in only 167 such plate appearances. This group should find their way on to the scoreboard far earlier than the 9th inning on Saturday.
The primary concern for the Phillies in Game 2 is in the late innings. Since the All-Star break, Philadelphia’s bullpen ranks 11th in FIP, 28th in WHIP, 10th in strikeout percentage, 23rd in walk rate, and 28th in left-on-base percentage. Yesterday, Jose Alvarado threw 12 pitches, David Robertson threw 15 pitches, and Zach Eflin threw 22 pitches in relief – allowing three earned runs in only 2.2 innings. Expect Manager Rob Thomson to ride his starter for as long as possible in this one, trying to minimize the impact that his arm barn will have on this contest.
St. Louis Cardinals
Miles Mikolas finished the regular season on a high note, with a 2.38 ERA, 3.73 FIP, and a 1.00 WHIP across his final 34.0 innings of work. Yet, it is worth mentioning that those innings were accrued against the Chicago Cubs, Pittsburgh Pirates, Cincinnati Reds, San Diego Padres, and Milwaukee Brewers – of which, only one team made the postseason. In Mikolas’ prior eight turns through the rotation, he was much worse – posting a 5.81 ERA, 4.45 FIP, and a 1.25 WHIP. Still, he was at his best when pitching in the confines of Busch stadium in 2022, having not allowed more than three earned runs in a home start from June 1st through October 3rd. Expect Mikolas to keep the Cardinals within shouting distance for as long as he remains on this mound this evening.
The larger issue for St. Louis in this matchup is their offense against right-handed pitching – having ranked 19th in OPS, 18th in ISO, and 19th in HardHit% across the 30 days preceding the postseason. The struggles were widespread throughout the lineup, with each of Brendan Donovan, Lars Nootbaar, Paul Goldschmidt, and Nolan Arenado posting a .238 batting average or worse against righties since September 1st. In that span, only Albert Pujols had better than a .766 OPS against right-handed pitching. After being held scoreless through 6.1 innings in Game 1 by Zack Wheeler, this offense has another tough test against Nola in Game 2.
In yesterday’s game preview I wrote that “St. Louis unquestionably has the least reliable relief corps of any team in the postseason this fall. Since the All-Star break, this group ranks only 19th in FIP, 14th in WHIP, 27th in strikeout percentage, 18th in walk rate, and 12th in left-on-base percentage.” In Game 1, the Cardinals’ arm barn was tagged for six earned runs in 3.2 innings of work – costing the team a series lead. On Saturday, they could be without their top high-leverage reliever after Ryan Helsley threw 32 pitches on Friday. Andre Pallante and Giovanny Gallegos each threw 19 pitches or more in the loss as well, creating mild fatigue-related concerns if they make their way into tonight’s affair.
Phillies-Cardinals Pick
The Phillies had one of the best offenses in baseball against right-handed pitching over the final month of the regular season. Today, they get to face Miles Mikolas, who is a league average hurler – capable of delivering much worse than league average results. Both of these bullpens are extremely vulnerable in the late innings, as we saw in Game 1 as well, meaning that both lineups should have scoring opportunities deep into this contest. The over has a good opportunity to cash in Game 2, with much more hitter-friendly weather conditions than these two teams had to contend with on Friday.
PICKS: Over 6 – (-140)
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