Raybon's Rollout: NFL Week 14
Welcome back to Raybon’s Rollout, where I highlight the stacks and players I’ll be rolling out in DFS. For data on the hit rates of the different stacks I list below, check out the intro in the first edition of this column here.
This week there are only two games with an over/under above 47.5 (Saints-Bucs and Chargers-Panthers), as well as weather concerns for Steelers-Bills, Bengals-Browns, and Seahawks-Packers. It looks like a week to build around stud RBs (what else is new), so I will focus on stacks that don’t break the bank.
Unconventional Stacks
QB Andrew Luck + WR T.Y. Hilton + TE C.J. Fiedorowicz
The Colts have been installed with the main slate’s second-highest implied total (26.5) by Vegas against a Texans defense playing their second road game in as many weeks. Luck is averaging 325.2 total yards and 2.2 total TDs at home this season, while the Texans defense has allowed a QB to throw for three TDs in two of its last three games (it could have easily been three-of-three if not for Aaron Rodgers fumbling away a snap inside the 5-yard line last week). T.Y. Hilton has long been a better player on the fast track at home, but has also smashed as a favorite this season — he’s averaging 7.5 receptions, 118.2 yards, and 0.67 TDs in the six games that the Colts have been a favorite in this season. He’s both at home and a favorite this week.
If the Colts offense finds success, the Texans will likely find themselves having to throw to catch up. Fiedorowicz has been the fifth-most heavily targeted TE in the league since Week 7 (7.3 targets per game) and averages 2.17 more targets per game this season when the team is an underdog. The Colts are ranked 26th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to TEs and just lost linebacker D’Qwell Jackson — who led the team by far with 376 coverage snaps played — to a suspension.
QB Colin Kaepernick + TE Vance McDonald + WR Robby Anderson
Be greedy when others are fearful. Sure, Kaepernick is at risk for an in-game benching, but that will likely deter almost anyone from rostering him. Kaep will get the start and if he is able to play the whole game, he’ll have a ton of upside out of the snow and back home in sunny San Francisco against a Jets defense ranked dead last in pass defense DVOA. Vance McDonald has the largest market share of Kaepernick’s targets and yards this season. The Jets defense is fresh off giving up three TDs to a previously dormant Dwayne Allen.
On a short week, traveling across the country, and eliminated from playoff contention, the Jets have an eye toward next season. That means they are interested not only in seeing what they have in QB Bryce Petty, but also what they have in their 23-year-old undrafted WR Anderson, who has played on 86% of the team’s snaps since Week 4. Likely from the second-team practice reps they’ve taken together, Petty and Anderson clearly have a bond — Anderson has been the target on 18 of Petty’s 58 attempts (31%) and has accounted for 44% of Petty’s yardage, while no other Jets receiver has seen more than 11 targets from Petty. The two highest yardage totals of Anderson’s season (69, 61) have come in Petty’s two appearances. Anderson has 4.41 speed and flashed the ability to repeatedly outrun coverage last week against the Colts, a feat he should be able to repeat against a 49ers defense ranked 27th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed.
QB Jameis WInston + TE Cameron Brate + WR Michael Thomas
Editor’s Note: Michael Thomas (foot) missed practice Thursday and is considered questionable to play Sunday.
Winston’s Bucs enter Week 14 with the main slate’s highest implied total (27) in the only game with an over/under above 50. In the last five weeks, the Saints have allowed Colin Kaepernick to post 421 total yards and two TDs, Jared Goff to throw for three TDs in a half, and Matthew Stafford to post 363 yards and two TDs. Winston will be without Cecil Shorts (knee) and possibly Adam Humphries (concussion), meaning he will have to look to Brate as one of his top receiving options, especially given the attention Mike Evans draws. Brate is a lot cheaper than Evans and only has two less red zone targets (13) and one less target inside the 10-yard line (6).
After burning a lot of people last week at home, Michael Thomas is unlikely to be nearly as popular on the road. However, Thomas leads the Saints in receptions (5.8), yards (79.3), and TDs (0.58) per game. Now is a great time to jump back on the Thomas train in a potential shootout.
RB Jeremy Hill + D/ST Bengals
Strong winds and snow are in the forecast in Cleveland, which means this game will likely be won on the ground. Jeremy Hill’s yards per carry average has been ghastly lately, but that’s why you want to play him stacked with the Bengals defense. If Cincy’s defense is able to force turnovers and give the offense short fields, then Hill, who is seventh in the league in red zone carries (32), benefits. Not that Hill’s matchup is especially daunting — the Browns are ranked 30th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs and 29th in run defense DVOA. The Browns are also ranked dead last in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to opposing defenses. They have committed the league’s sixth-most turnovers (20) and haven’t scored more than 13 points in a game since October.
K Kai Forbath + D/ST Vikings
If Moses was alive in this era, he’d bring us a stone that said “Thou shalt target Blake Bortles with thy opposing defense” 10 times. The Jaguars are tied for the league lead in turnovers (25) and rank 28th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to opposing defenses. Bortles has thrown 11 pick-sixes in his career, the most by any QB in NFL history through their first three seasons. Kickers are positively correlated with D/ST production, so Forbath makes a sensible pairing with the Vikings D at minimum price. The Jags are also ranked 27th in “schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to kickers.
Coaching Tendency to Exploit
The Lions’ Keepaway Style
The Lions gave up 34+ points twice in their first three games and the coaching staff realized they had to change course. Since Week 4, they have allowed the second-fewest defensive plays per game (58.2) in the league and have essentially played keepaway on offense with an efficient, chain-moving attack and almost zero no-huddle. During that span, the Lions have allowed 18.44 points per game, fourth-fewest in the league, and they have not allowed 20 points in a game in their last four. D/ST production is positively correlated with point spread and negatively correlated with opposing implied total, and the Lions have the largest spread on the slate (-8), while the Bears are tied for the lowest implied total (17.75). The Lions defense is squarely in play this weekend against the injury-ravaged Chicago offense.
Injury Situation to Exploit
The Banged Up Falcons’ Receiving Corps
Julio Jones is battling turf toe and Mohamed Sanu is battling a groin injury, meaning both will miss practice time this week and could even be in danger of missing Sunday’s game against the Rams. That means the electric Taylor Gabriel could get some first-team reps in practice, and could also be a big part of this week’s game plan. Gabriel has five catches and/or a TD in each of his last five games (only failing to score last week by mere inches) despite playing just 49% of the snaps during that span. A hike in snaps would give Gabriel and his video game-style cutting ability massive upside against a Rams defense ranked 30th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs.