Raybon's Rollout: NFL Week 6
Welcome back to Raybon’s Rollout, where I highlight the stacks and players I’ll be rolling out in DFS. For data on the hit rates of the different stacks I list below, check out the intro in the first edition of this column here.
Week 6 is perhaps 2016’s most fascinating NFL slate to date, with only one game with an over/under above 47.5, and no games with an over/under below 43.5 (as of this writing). There is essentially no game that you can completely write off from a daily fantasy perspective this week.
Unconventional Stacks
QB Drew Brees + WR Brandin Cooks + WR Kelvin Benjamin
There is a positive correlation between members of opposing passing games, and at 53 points, Saints-Panthers is the only game this week with an over/under of more than 48. Playing in the Superdome is a cheat code for Brees. At home, Brees has averaged 342 passing yards, 2.6 TDs, a 67% completion rate, and 7.95 yards per attempt since 2014. On the road, those numbers drop to 291, 1.7, 54%, and 7.40, respectively. Brees’ wizardry when slinging the rock in the Big Easy carries over directly to Cooks, who has averaged 5.7 receptions, 80.1 yards from scrimmage, and .74 total TDs at home, compared to 4.7 receptions, 52.3 yards, and .27 TDs on the road over that same time span. Brees and Cooks will do battle with a beleaguered Panthers secondary that has allowed 8.8 yards per target to WRs (28th in NFL) and ranks 22nd in pass defense DVOA overall, including 26th to No. 1 WRs.
If Brees and Cooks have their usual success at home, the Panthers will need to score to keep up, which is where Benjamin comes in. The 6-foot-5 Benjamin is one of only six WRs to receive 50% or more of his team’s targets inside the 10-yard line. The Saints defense has allowed 8.91 yards per target to WRs (30th in NFL) and the third most FanDuel and DraftKings points per game to the position. I also like Benjamin as a pivot off Greg Olsen, who is sure to be owned even more than he would have been if not for the recency bias stemming from last week’s 9-181 performance in prime time.
QB Marcus Mariota + RB DeMarco Murray
Any time a team’s implied total differs significantly from their seasonal average of points scored, it warrants attention in DFS. The Titans average 18.4 points per game this season, but Vegas has set Tennessee’s implied total above 25 for this week’s tilt with the Browns. The Browns rank 27th in overall defensive DVOA — 28th against the pass and 22nd against the run. They have allowed multiple TD passes in every game this season, and in 13-of-14 games dating back to 2015.
Stacking Mariota with Murray not only gives you the upside of having access to Tennessee’s entire offensive output in a game where they are expected to be one of the highest-scoring teams of the week, but also allows you to take advantage of Mariota and Murray’s connection in the passing game. Murray has been targeted 27 times this season, which is tied for second-most on the team. He is tied for ninth in the entire NFL (not just among RBs) in red zone targets (7), and has received 33.3% of his team’s red zone targets and 38.5% of their targets inside the 10-yard line. The Browns have allowed the fourth highest receiving TD rate to RBs (6.7%).
QB Russell Wilson + WR Doug Baldwin + TE Jimmy Graham
The Seahawks have an implied total above 26 and will face a Falcons defense ranked 24th in pass defense DVOA. Over the past two games where Graham has seemingly regained full health, 50% of Seattle’s targets are going to he and Baldwin, a figure that climbs to 60% inside the red zone. Graham is coming off back-to-back 100-yard games and is currently averaging a career-high 16.6 yards per reception. Baldwin, meanwhile, already has two games with eight or more catches and has scored 20 or more DraftKings points in each of his past five home games dating back to last season.
Wilson has been banged up this year, but did show signs of life in his last game, throwing for 309 yard and 3 TDs against the Jets in Week 4. Now coming off a bye to get healthy and make adjustments, and with Graham being more effective than ever, Wilson could very well return to the form he showed during the last eight games of 2015, when he put up a 25:2 TD:interception ratio and averaged 8.5 yards per attempt.
RB LeSean McCoy + D/ST Buffalo Bills
The Bills are eight-point home favorites against a 49ers team that has allowed four straight 100-yard rushers and 4.66 yards per carry to RBs (27th in NFL). The 49ers are allowing the most touches per game (32.4) and rushing attempts per game (28.6) in the league to the position. McCoy, who averages 5.26 yards per carry this season, has handled at least 19 touches in every game, and has juked his way to three straight games of 100+ yards from scrimmage. The Bills run the ball 71% of time inside the 10-yard line (fourth most in NFL) and 61% of the time in the red zone (third most). If the Bills control the game like the eight-point spread suggests they will, McCoy will rack up touches against one of the league’s worst run defenses.
On the other side of the ball, Buffalo’s defense is ranked second in fantasy points per game among defenses and matches up well to the 49ers. The Bills rank fourth in adjusted sack rate (9.2%), while Colin Kaepernick’s career sack rate — which is a QB trait — is 9.0%, which would rank second worst in the NFL this season.
K Connor Barth + D/ST Chicago Bears
With kicker and defense being just as strongly correlated as QB and all of his WRs save for his WR1, it’s often beneficial to roll out a couple of kicker-defense stacks where it makes sense. The Bears are home favorites with an implied total of 24.75, which equate to favorable odds for both kickers and defenses. Barth will likely be lightly owned, but the Jaguars have allowed the fifth most points to kickers, and as I mentioned, Barth checks all the boxes in terms of Vegas odds.
As far as the defense, the Bears rank above average in adjusted sack rate (6.6%, 12th in NFL), while the Jaguars rank 27th in adjusted sack rate allowed (7.2%) — Blake Bortles has led the NFL in sacks taken in each of his first two seasons.
Coaching Tendency to Exploit
The Steelers Allowing Le’Veon Bell to Play Over 90% of Snaps
In a day and age where most teams exercise caution with the RBs, routinely shuffling them in and out of games, the Steelers leave their bell cow on the field more than any team in the NFL. Bell is averaging 93% of snaps played, including 96% last week, while the next highest RB, David Johnson, is at 81%. Bell has touched the ball at least 23 times in each game this season, and is averaging the same amount of targets (8.5) as some of the league’s top WRs. While Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown’s favorable home splits are well documented, with the duo tending to account for much of the Steelers’ TD scoring at home, Bell tends to hit paydirt more on the road. Since 2014, he averages .73 total TDs on the road, compared to .46 at home.
Bell will go to Miami to face a Dolphins defense allowing the second most touches to RBs in the league (32.2) and just got eviscerated for 175 yards on 34 carries (5.14 yards per carry) by DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry for a Titans offense that doesn’t even have a threatening passing game like the Steelers do.
Injury Situation to Exploit
Haloti Ngata’s Ankle Injury
The 331-pound Ngata isn’t the same guy he was in his Baltimore heydey, but he is still a large, run-deterring presence in the middle of Detroit’s line. Detroit can’t afford to lose an important run defender, as they rank 28th in run defense DVOA and are allowing 5.1 yards per carry to RBs, 31st in the NFL. As a road underdog with a low total, Todd Gurley will be a contrarian play, but he is commanding the type of volume (23.2 touches per game) and goal-line usage (the Rams run 73% of time inside the 10-yard line, most in the NFL) necessary to have a huge game.
The Rams’ offensive line play is certainly a concern, but I like the idea of being greedy when others are fearful in a soft matchup; as bad as the offensive line is, Gurley’s 2.7 yards per carry average is sure to regress upwards at some point.