Raybon’s Rollout: NFL Week 9
Welcome back to Raybon’s Rollout, where I highlight the stacks and players I’ll be rolling out in DFS. For data on the hit rates of the different stacks I list below, check out the intro in the first edition of this column here.
Last week I posited that many DFS players would be overconfident in chalk plays due to the success of the chalk in 2016, and in Week 7 in particular. This week, DFS players may be more willing than usual to go contrarian after the chalk burned them last week, so I would just focus on putting together solid lineups while not worrying too much about ownership, as there is a lot of value at different price points. A well-place pivot or differentiation can go a long way — remember, you don’t necessarily need to roster a bunch of volatile players to win GPPs.
Unconventional Stacks
QB Dak Prescott + RB Ezekiel Elliott + WR Dez Bryant
Ezekiel Elliott’s yardage totals this season have been higher than Josh Gordon after a night of partying with Johnny Manziel. Elliott is averaging 135.7 total yards per game and has gained 148+ in each of his past five games. The Cowboys have one of the league’s premier offensive lines and rank fourth in offensive adjusted line yards, while the Browns rank 28th in defensive adjusted line yards and 31st in rush defense DVOA.
If you’re a glass half-full type, you’ll note that despite the Browns not giving up multiple TD passes to Ryan Fitzpatrick last week, they have still done so in 7-of-8 games this season and 15-of-17 dating back to 2015. If you’re the glass half-empty type, fill up your glass on the fact the Browns rank 30th in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the second-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to QBs in the league, along with the fourth-most schedule adjusted points to WRs. Even if Dak doesn’t reach his ceiling against the defense that plays like an expletive the color of its namesake, he hasn’t scored fewer than 18 FanDuel or DraftKings points since his first start as a pro in Week 1. Finally healthy, Dez Bryant was peppered with 14 targets last week, and shouldn’t need that many to post big numbers against a defense that has allowed the second-most TDs (11) to WRs in the NFL.
QB Colin Kaepernick + RB Carlos Hyde
Editor’s Note: Hyde (shoulder) now appears more questionable than initially thought. If Hyde doesn’t go, he can be replaced in the stack with DuJuan Harris, who led the 49ers’ backfield with 13 touches for 57 yards in Week 7.
Editor’s Note: Carlos Hyde has been ruled OUT. DuJuan Harris is listed as the starter for Week 9.
A QB-RB stack allows you to potentially get access to every TD a team scores without having to pinpoint which WRs will score. This is particularly appealing against a New Orleans defense that routinely gets its levees broken by opposing offenses. The Saints defense ranks 28th in both pass and run defense DVOa, and allow the third-most yards per drive (36.5) in the league. The 49ers’ implied total of 24.25 is nearly four points higher than their season average of points per game (20.6). Rostering both Kaepernick and Hyde also makes sense given the 49ers’ tendencies: the team runs on 60.3% of their plays in the red zone (most in the league) and 10 of their 17 offensive TDs have come on the ground. Kaepernick has averaged only 165 yards and one TD in his two starts, but could improve upon those numbers against the Saints’ porous defense. On the ground, Kaep’ is averaging 8.5 carries for 75 yards per game. Hyde is coming off a multi-week absence that will likely keep his ownership low, but he’s eclipsed 20 points on FanDuel and DraftKings in 3-of-6 games this season and averaged 20.4 touches per game.
QB Ryan Tannehill + WR Jarvis Landry + WR Brandon Marshall
We want to attack the Jets through the air, and we also want to attack players that are getting opportunity but whom the public will be off due to recency bias. The Tannehill-Landry-Marshall stack accomplishes both of those and takes advantage of the positive correlation between opposing passing games. The Jets rank 31st in pass defense DVOA and allowed 341 yards and two TDs to Josh McCown last week (although to be fair, they did pick him off twice). The Jets achilles heel is the deep ball — only one team has given up more passing plays of 40+ yards than the Jets (9). Meanwhile, Ryan Tannehill has showcased an improved longball, as the Dolphins are tied for second in the league with nine passing plays of 40+ yards on offense. The big plays will aid Tannehill’s ceiling, while Landry should be able to pad his stats with volume. Landry averages 9.3 targets per game, and should have a mismatch on whatever corner the Jets put on him, Darrelle Revis or otherwise. The Jets allowed two TDs to Browns slot man Andrew Hawkins last week.
Despite averaging 9.6 targets per game and being second in the league in red zone targets (13), Brandon Marshall has underachieved to the point that even Sam Hinkie would stop trusting the process. Still, the usage is there for Marshall and positive regression should be imminent against a Dolphins defense that ranks 27th in DVOA versus No. 1 WRs.
RB Melvin Gordon + D/ST San Diego Chargers
With a lot of value on the slate, the Chargers-Titans game may go overlooked despite the fact that the Chargers are five-point home favorites with an implied total of 26 against the Titans. A top-three RB in carries inside the red zone (35), 10-yard line (17), and 5-yard line (9), Gordon has been a top-five RB in terms of points per game on both FanDuel and DraftKings. He has proven matchup-proof by averaging 27 touches for 124.5 yards in two games against the Broncos over the past three weeks, so the Titans’ ninth-ranked defense in rush DVOA shouldn’t be an issue, especially with Gordon being a home favorite.
Meanwhile, despite losing top corner Jason Verrett and seemingly every linebacker they have, the Chargers defense has been improving and is quietly ranked seventh in total defensive DVOA and ninth in both FanDuel and DraftKings points per game. The Titans, meanwhile, have been bleeding fantasy points to opposing defenses for a year and a half, and currently allow the third-most points to the position when adjusting for strength of schedule.
K Cairo Santos + D/ST Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs will be without their starting QB (Alex Smith, non-concussion?) and may even be without their top RB (Spencer Ware, concussion), yet Vegas has installed them as nine-point favorites because of their defense’s matchup against Blake Bortles, who has caused season-long Allen Robinson drafters to sign up for daily leagues because they have no shot at the playoffs and caused former OC Greg Olson to file for unemployment. The Chiefs defense is tied for the league lead with 16 turnovers, while the Jaguars offense has coughed the ball up 13 times, sixth-most in the league. As I point out in The Definitive Guide to Stacking on FanDuel, 81.8% of kicker-defense stacks that hit — defined as combining for 30+ points — do so when the opposing team total is below 24; the Jaguars’ implied total is 18.25, second-lowest on the main slate. Santos has scored 9+ points in 5-of-7 games this season, and 10+ points in 4-of-7, while the Jaguars have allowed the most points in the league to opposing kickers.
Coaching Tendency to Exploit
Mike McCarthy’s Newfound Pass-Happy Ways
Despite having Aaron Rodgers as their QB, the Packers haven’t necessarily been a pass-heavy team. Last season, Green Bay passed on 58.9% of their plays, 18th-most in the NFL. In 2014 they passed even less: 56.4% of the time, 23rd in the NFL. In fact, the Packers haven’t been in the top half the of the league in percentage of passing plays since 2012. This season, however, Rodgers is averaging a career-high 39.3 pass attempts. Over the past two games with Eddie Lacy and James Starks out, the Packers have passed 70.2% of the time, with Rodgers also accounting for 19.0% of the team’s running plays. This week, the Packers will tangle with a Colts pass defense ranked 29th in DVOA. The Packers have the highest implied total of the week at over 30 points, and Rodgers has accounted for every single one of Green Bay’s 19 offensive TDs this season (17 passing, 2 rushing). A case can be made to stack Rodgers with any of his WRs, with Jordy Nelson carrying the most TD upside. Nelson leads the league in red zone targets (14) and red zone TDs (6), and his outlook would improve even more if the Colts’ top cornerback, Vontae Davis (concussion), is unable to go this week.
Injury Situation to Exploit
Concussions to Chiefs QB Alex Smith (out) and RB Spencer Ware (questionable)
Editor’s Note: Spencer Ware has been ruled OUT for Week 9.
The Chiefs are home favorites with a 25.75 implied total as of early Thursday, and I’d imagine it would settle in at around 25 at the lowest if Ware is officially ruled out. DFS players will never be lining up in droves to roster members of the Chiefs passing game, but being a home favorite with an implied team total of 24+ is one of the most predictive indicators for good fantasy production from a QB. Per Pro Football Focus, Nick Foles’ average depth of target last week was 9.7 yards, while Alex Smith’s was 7.5 this season, which ranks 29th in the NFL (and was his highest mark as a Chief). With Foles at the helm last week, the Chiefs passing offense came alive. Travis Kelce had the second 10+ target game and third 100+ yard game of his career, while rookie speedster Tyreek Hill dropped a 5-98-1 line and caught a 34-yard TD bomb from Foles.
The Jaguars have been solid against the pass, but came apart last Thursday against the Titans, allowing Marcus Mariota to go 18-22 for 270 yards and 2 TDs while Titans TEs combined for five catches and 105 yards on six targets. The Chiefs passing game makes for an interesting contrarian pivot off of the more expensive options at QB and cheaper options at TE, and off of West as well. That being said, West is squarely in play even though he’ll be chalk. We saw last week that the winning Millionaire Maker lineup had Devontae Booker at 65% ownership, and most of the winning lineups have at least one highly owned RB. West has already proven he can put up big numbers as the Chefs’ feature back — he had a three-game stretch from weeks 7-10 last season where he touched the ball 24+ times, gained 120+ total yards, and scored a TD in each game. The Jaguars are ranked 27th in rush defense DVOA.