Raybon's Rollout: Week 11

Welcome back to Raybon’s Rollout, where I highlight the unconventional stacks and players I’ll be rolling out in DFS each week.

The column is largely based on my intensive research on stacking and coaching tendencies, and this year I’m adding a section that features the player with the top projected percentage odds of the week to hit cash game value, which follows the same methodology I use to calculate projected odds of hitting tournament value in my GPP Leverage Score metric.

Unconventional Stacks

UPDATE: Shepard (migraines) is a GTD. The best pivot for the Smith-Kelce stack would be Evan Engram; the only thing we have to hang our hats on with Roger Lewis and Tavarres King is each has caught a TD over the past two weeks, but each also projects to run half of his routes against Marcus Peters.

QB Alex Smith + TE Travis Kelce + WR Sterling Shepard

The spot here is great for Kareem Hunt, which I’ll get to in a few moments below, but it also provides a clear-cut opportunity to leverage the correlation of opposing passing games. The allegedly quitting, anonymously leaking, in-fighting Giants defense has allowed five of the past six quarterbacks it has faced to account for three total touchdowns, with the only exception being Brock Osweiler, while Smith’s 19 total touchdowns are tied for fifth in the league. A big touchdown day from Smith will not be in the least bit surprising if you consider that the Giants have given up a touchdown in every game to the tight end position, which just so happens to be the position that Smith’s favorite target, Kelce, plays.

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The Giants rank 31st in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to tight ends, and Kelce has posted at least seven catches, 100 yards, and a touchdown in each of his three meetings with teams ranked 21st or below in that metric. The correlation of opposing passing games with Kansas City’s own is evident when you contrast the success of Smith and Kelce this season with the production Kansas City has given up in the passing game, particularly to wide receivers, where they have allowed the most TDs (15) and the fourth-most yards (1,616) to the position and rank 31st in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed. Evan Engram has been a revelation for the Giants, but Shepard clearly has the better matchup, as the Chiefs rank fourth in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to tight ends. Shepard’s high-volume usage (11.0 targets per game in two games since the bye) and soft matchup against a struggling Steven Nelson in the slot, among others, should allow him to put up the big numbers that he’ll likely need to out of necessity given the elevated odds of success for Smith and Kelce.

QB Tom Brady + WR Brandin Cooks + WR Michael Crabtree

As the best quarterback in football going against the league’s worst pass defense on paper (the Raiders rank 32nd in pass defense DVOA), Tom Brady is in a smash spot. And because the Raiders’ cornerback group consists of bigger, stiff-hipped types who all stand at least six-foot and weigh at least 200 pounds, the 189-pound Brandin Cooks — who has 99th percentile speed — should give them fits, especially since the Raiders already rank 31st in DVOA versus No. 1 wide receivers. Both Oakland wideouts are liable to hit this week against a Patriots defense ranked 29th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to wide receivers, but I like Crabtree more because there’s less risk of Belichick scheming to take him out of the game, and also because the Patriots are allowing the second-most targets (7.7) and yards per game (62.1) to No. 2 wide receivers.

Best Odds to Hit Cash Game Value

Kareem Hunt: 65% on FanDuel, 58% on DraftKings

(Note: For a complete explanation of how these odds are calculated, see the Week 1 edition of this column.)

After handling only nine carries in Week 9’s 28–17 loss to the Cowboys due to negative game script—despite being a good receiver, Hunt cedes some passing-down work to Charcandrick West — Hunt has a double-dose of Narrative Street working in his favor: He’s unlikely to get scripted out of this week’s game because (a) Andy Reid is 16–2 coming off a bye, and (b) the team is coming off a loss in a game in which Hunt got only nine carries, so the narrative is Kansas City must Hunt more involved in order to get back on track.

There’s no need to hang our hats on narratives, though, when we have metrics that clearly point to success for Hunt. The Giants are ranked 27th in run defense DVOA and 26th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to running backs. Hunt ranks second among running backs in total yards per game (125.7), which is the most predictive in-season per-game box score stat. The Chiefs are also double-digit favorites, and running backs playing for a team that is favored have historically been undervalued by DFS sites. Speaking of undervalued, Hunt’s salary, at one of its lowest points since the season’s first quarter, is at a point where his projected production this Sunday in the Meadowlands leaves a sizeable gap—9 percentage points—between him in the next-best player in cash odds (he has a 2-percentage-point lead on DraftKings).

Coaching Tendency to Exploit

Miami’s increased pass-happiness since trading Jay Ajayi

After a 1–4 start to last season, Dolphins head coach Adam Gase turned to a run-heavy approach featuring Jay Ajayi to save the Dolphins season. With the league’s last-ranked scoring offense this season, it looks like Gase has taken the opposite approach. In their two games since Ajayi was traded to the Eagles, Gase has increased his team’s first-half passing rate from 57% to 62% (the team is passing on 70% of plays overall in those two games compared to 61% pre-Ajayi trade, but that can be chalked up to second-half deficits).

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Since Ajayi was traded, Jay Cutler has averaged 6.6 yards per attempt—up 1.1 yards from his average pre-trade. Cutler also has five touchdowns and only one interception in those two games after compiling just a 7:5 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his six games prior. This is all good news for Cutler, Jarvis Landry, and DeVante Parker against a defense that ranks 25th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks and 32nd in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. Targeting Tampa Bay has disappointed in a couple of spots so far this season, but those instances—against the Panthers and Jets—have occurred with Tampa Bay at home. On the road, Tampa Bay has allowed 33.0 points per game, with each of the four opponents they’ve faced scoring at least 30 points. Miami’s offense has been better since Ajayi was jettisoned, scoring 22.5 points per game in two games without him compared to 13.1 in seven games with him. And just like Tampa’s defense struggles on the road, Miami’s offense plays better at home, averaging 23.1 points in three home games (not including a game in London where Miami was technically the home team), but just 11.0 points per game in six games outside of Miami.

Injury Situation to Exploit

Will Fuller’s rib injury

DeAndre Hopkins has been a target monster for the Texans all season long, especially in Tom Savage’s two starts, where Nuk has averaged 15.0 targets per game. But more than any other week, the Texans will need to target their ancillary pass-catchers because thanks to Patrick Peterson the Cardinals are allowing a league-low 5.2 targets (and 42.5 yards) to No. 1 wide receivers, per Football Outsiders.

Fuller would have normally be next in line, but with him nursing a rib injury, Bruce Ellington is the most likely Texans receiver to see an uptick in targets. Ellington is coming off two straight games of eight targets, and head coach Bill O’Brien said this week he wants to get Ellington even more involved. Despite their success against the opposing offense’s primary wideout, the Cardinals are ranked just 23rd in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to wide receivers.

About the Author

chrisraybon
Chris Raybon (chrisraybon)

One of the most well respected DFS analysts in the industry. Chris Raybon (@Chris Raybon) is the Senior DFS Editor for 4for4.com and the host of the DFS MVP Podcast. Nominated for the FWSA‘s Newcomer of the Year award in 2015, Raybon is known for his DFS Playbook positional strategy guides as well as his groundbreaking work on stacking with running backs in DFS tournaments. A Syracuse University alum who specialized in accounting, Raybon believes in the synergy of quantitative and qualitative analysis. He started playing fantasy as a kid in the mid-90s and has seen every single play of every single NFL game since 2010.