Risers and Fallers: Volume 12
I’m back for another week of reviewing the most interesting players from the past seven days, pairing advanced metrics and insights from my DFS projection system, THE BAT, with my scouting background to try to figure out what to make of some the week’s most active lot of ballplayers. Guys whose stock is going up, guys whose stock is going down, guys who are perpetually underpriced or overpriced, guys who are worth paying a premium for, or guys who are just interesting and warrant some analysis on.
If anyone ever has a suggestion for a player they’d like to see included, feel free to send me an email or a tweet.
Without further ado, let’s jump right into it!
CONTROVERSIALLY OVERRATED ENTITY OF THE WEEK
The Kansas City Bullpen
I mentioned on GrindersLive earlier this week when recommending hitters against Chris Young that the Kansas City bullpen behind him is highly overrated, especially now that Danny Duffy has been moved to the rotation. Kansas City has been renowned for several years now as having the best bullpen in baseball, so of course this was met with comments in chat about how ridiculous this statement was along with the stray attack on my intelligence and manhood. After all, the Royals have the best ERA (2.72) of any bullpen in baseball by a sizeable margin. In fact, they are the only team with an ERA under 3.00. That’s not the whole story, though. If we look at the individual components of the bullpen, we’d be hard-pressed to expect that to continue.
There’s no question that Kansas City’s best guys are elite, and you certainly don’t want to find your hitters in a close game. A seventh, eighth, and ninth of Hochever, Herrera, and Davis can be death on hitters. But that’s not the most likely scenario. Especially if we’re picking on a Kansas City pitcher like Young, in all likelihood when he comes out of the game (presumably because he’s given up some runs, since that’s why we’re playing against him) Kelvin Herrera won’t be the one coming in. It will be Chien-Ming Wang or Dillon Gee, who have good ERAs this year but are terrible pitchers. Even if we make zero assumptions like that, though, KC’s best relievers are still only used about 40% of the time, on the whole. And outside of their top three, all they have are mediocre and worse pitchers.
Literally every pitcher on this list right now is overperforming their xFIP, and the team has just three pitchers with an xFIP under 4.00. That’s just not sustainable, and a strong case could be made that several of these guys aren’t even as good as their xFIPs. Brian Flynn and Peter Moylan (two of the sub-4.00 xFIPers) are basically having career years (and Moylan is 37 years old!), and if they fall off even a little (which, given that they’ve thrown the fewest innings and have the smallest sample, seems very likely given their mediocre history), this bullpen is seriously left with just their big three.
The Royals may lead baseball with the best bullpen ERA, but this is a wholly mediocre pen in my opinion with the ability to be awful in the right game conditions. I’m certainly not scared to play hitters against it.
RISING… AND I’M TEMPTED BUT WARY
Alex Gordon, OF, Kansas City Royals
With the Royals lineup getting seriously churned up this year with a multitude of injuries and slumps, one such slumping player has somehow found his way into the leadoff spot in a supposed attempt to jumpstart his bat. Because that makes sense. What it really does is infuriate DFS owners who see a player with plenty of underlying talent priced near $3,000 day in and day out on DraftKings and are constantly tempted. Luckily, I’ve had the discipline not to play Gordon despite good matchups and that price, and I hope you have too.
Coming into Sunday, Gordon had just a .286 wOBA on the year and .260 wOBA since coming off the DL on June 25. He spent about a month on the shelf with a broken bone in his hand, which is an injury that worries me. Even once players return from hand and wrist injuries, they aren’t always themselves. It can linger and sap power, and that makes Gordon a risky proposition. He hit his second homer since coming off the DL on Sunday, which is a good sign, but I’m going to need to see more before I can really trust Gordon in cash games.
RISING… AND UNDERPRICED
Jose Peraza, SS, Cincinnati Reds
Peraza has been batting second for Cincinnati recently, which makes him an interesting DFS play given his skill set if the lineup spot sticks. Peraza is basically the exact prototype of a speedy, old school, top-of-the-order hitter. He has plus plus speed, of course, and his bat is exactly what you’d expect: he doesn’t strike out, doesn’t walk, doesn’t have power, and slaps the ball around enough to generate some hits. Hitting second, in matchups that either have weak pitchers or are good for stolen bases, he would quickly become one of my favorite shortstop punts. He’s been hovering just above the minimum on FanDuel and in the high $2,000s/low-$3,000s range on DraftKings. For as long as he stays there and continues to bat second, he’ll be very playable.
Tommy Pham, OF, St. Louis Cardinals
Can someone explain to me why Tommy Pham is the bare minimum on DraftKings? $2,000 for a guy who was basically competing for a starting job in Spring Training and didn’t get it because of injury. He’s back now, and it’s not even as if he’s been bad. Sure, his batting average is .207, but his wOBA is a respectable enough .302. Pham is a guy who does a little bit of everything but nothing exceptionally well: some pop, some speed, some contact hitting, and good patience. Combined, he’s an average to slightly above-average hitter. Who is minimum priced. And occasionally gets to lead off. Color me confused, but I’m not going to question it. When Pham is in the lineup, even hitting eighth on days when there is expensive pitching or bats to pay for, he will be a perpetual punt option.
Max Kepler, OF, Minnesota Twins
I’ve talked all year about how the Twins have more talent than their raw numbers have let on, and we’re finally starting to see it. They put up 17 runs on weak Rangers pitching on Saturday before touching up Cole Hamels and scoring 5 on Sunday. A big (and, until Saturday, quiet) part of their offense is Max Kepler. He was one of the top 100 prospects in baseball heading into this season with an advanced and well-rounded skill set.
His calling card is a plus hit tool and good plate discipline, but that didn’t display itself early in the year, as he posted a 36% K% in his first stint with the team in April. Since his June 1 call-up, though, he’s fallen back to a more reasonable 25% with a .345 wOBA. That’s because Kepler also has some projectable power, plus some average speed that is played up by good instincts, making him an occasional threat to steal a base. He, of course, hit two home runs on Saturday and may finally start getting more attention. He gets to hit fifth against most righties, and the Twins will welcome Kendall Graveman into Target in the first series this week before traveling to Texas to face Chi Chi Gonzalez and Nick Martinez, so Kepler could very well be in play if he remains at the $3,000 level (especially on DraftKings).
Miguel Sano, OF, Minnesota Twins
Sano came off the DL this weekend, and how would this article be complete without a mention? THE BAT notoriously loved Sano earlier in the year. Like full-on, 2008 school girls fawning over the Jonas Brothers level love. While he was on the DL, I made some upgrades to THE BAT that give it a better feel for guys who showed monster power at the minor league level, and while THE BAT’s love for players like Byung-Ho Park and Peter O’Brien has tempered a lot, it still really likes Sano. How can it not?
By the numbers, Sano is a beast. Monster power, even at the major league level. Plenty of walks. Lots of strikeouts, but that’s normal for power hitters and doesn’t prevent Chris Davis or Adam Duvall from being productive hitters. And Sano makes up for it by continually posting above average rates of hits on balls in play. From a scouting perspective, he can certainly look bad at times, flailing at pitches he has no business even considering. He still has some growing to do, but when the Twins are in good matchups and he’s cheap, I’m going to roll him out there.
I mentioned some of the bad righties the Twins face before the All-Star break for Kepler, but they’ll also get some exploitable lefties in Sean Manaea and even Cole Hamels in the Texas heat.
Brandon McCarthy, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers
McCarthy sparkled in his season debut on Sunday, tossing five shutout innings with 8 strikeouts. Though the Dodgers said he would have no limitations, he was only allowed to throw 71 pitches despite throwing 72 in his final rehab outing. He’s clearly still building up arm strength, which might make him tough to play in his next start or two, but McCarthy is a guy that will quickly become a go-to second starter for me. I love Dodgers pitchers because of the park and catchers and because they are just generally cheap and underappreciated, and McCarthy will likely be no different.
He’s not generally considered a “stuff” guy because his control is so good and because he throws so many different pitches (or, at least, he has at times; last year he consolidated to just four), but his fastball sits 94 and he has a great cutter and a solid curve. As we saw on Sunday, McCarthy can definitely miss bats, and he cost just $6,100 on DraftKings. He’ll get a great home matchup against the Padres the next time out, and if he’s that cheap and can throw 90 pitches, there’s a chance he’ll be in play.
Mike Zunino, C, Seattle Mariners
Mike Zunino, he of the .235 wOBA last year, has returned to the majors leagues. The Mariners removed his starting catcher label this spring and sent him to the minors, where he promptly raked. With the injury to catcher Steve Clevenger, the M’s decided it was time to bring Zunino back to the majors, where he promptly hit two home runs in his first game back (and made me quite a bit of money in the process). As bad as Zunino was last year, not too long ago he was one of the top catching prospects in the game, and all he’s done in the minors is hit. Zunino’s plate discipline improved in the minors this year, and I’m optimistic that he can be a solid contributor now. THE BAT views him as basically a league average hitter, which after last year’s disaster is saying something. He’ll be buried in the order, but on days when the Mariners are in a good spot and you need a cheap catcher, he could be an option.
RISING… WITH INTERESTING IMPLICATIONS
Seattle Mariners Pitching
My love of Dodgers pitchers and their excellent context is well-documented, and a big part of that is because Yasmani Grandal is the best pitch-framing catcher in baseball. Well, with Zunino’s promotion, the Mariners now have the second best in the majors. While also calling an extreme pitchers’ park home, Mariners pitchers could become sneaky great plays on days that Zunino catches. He’ll be the backup to Chris Iannetta, who is above average himself, but the presence of Zunino will have a big impact. Keep that in mind on days he’s on the lineup card.