Risers and Fallers: Volume 8
I’m back for another week of reviewing the most interesting players from the past seven days, pairing advanced metrics and insights from my DFS projection system, THE BAT, with my scouting background to try to figure out what to make of some the week’s most active lot of ballplayers. Guys whose stock is going up, guys whose stock is going down, guys who are perpetually underpriced or overpriced, guys who are worth paying a premium for, or guys who are just interesting and warrant some analysis on.
If anyone ever has a suggestion for a player they’d like to see included, feel free to send me an email or a tweet.
Without further ado, let’s jump right into it!
FALLING… AND LIKELY TO BE OVERPRICED
James Shields, SP, Chicago White Sox
The White Sox need pitching and have decided to add… James Shields? Uhh, sure. That’ll work out swell. For DFS players, you can now pretty safely remove Shields from your radar in all but the most extreme circumstances. Not only has Shields been wholly mediocre this year (7.6 K/9, 4.14), but he’s been wholly mediocre as a National League pitcher for the past two years. Moving to the AL adds 0.50 points to the typical starter’s ERA while cutting 0.5 points off their K/9. Those who like narratives may say that Shields was great in the American League before joining the Padres and that returning to the AL will fix him, but they’d be wrong. And they’d be engaging in lazy analysis. Shields was in his early 30s then; he’s approaching 35 now. And the AL is objectively bad for pitchers, so we’d be better served translating Shields’ NL stats into an AL equivalent, which would look, well, not good.
You can also add another quarter point or so of ERA shifting from Derek Norris to Dioner Navarro as his batterymate. And then, of course, there’s the shift from an extreme pitchers’ park to an extreme hitters’ park. Especially for a guy with home run issues, U.S. Cellular is not a good home park. Expect Shields to struggle quickly and mightily.
FALLING… AND I’M STARTING TO WORRY
Francisco Liriano, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates
After a couple of recent good matchups gone bad, most notably allowing six runs to the Angels and striking out just four Braves, both in PNC Park, I had to look into Francisco Liriano. I was expecting to find little to worry about, but I found just the opposite. Not only has Liriano been bad recently, but his peripherals have been bad all year. His strikeouts are down a bit (8.8 K/9), and his walks are WAY up (5.5 BB/9). This has led to an awful 4.51 xFIP, and I’m having a hard time seeing a quick turnaround.
Walks have been an issue for Liriano in the past, so seeing them pop back up is not a good sign. Worse, though, is why it seems he’s walking so many batters. A huge part of the reason Liriano has been so successful in the past has been his wipeout slider, which he would run down (and-in) on righties and down (and-away) to lefties. WAY down. He’d routinely throw a high percentage of pitches out of the zone (65% the past couple years compared to 55% for the league average pitcher), but he’d get away with it because hitters were chasing. This year, however, they’re chasing much less: 25% out-of-zone swings compared to 33% the past three years. Look at these graphs from Brooks Baseball on the whiffs he’s getting on his slider this year compared to the past two years. See all that red that’s suddenly not there?
That’s a problem. A huge problem, not only because he’s not getting these swings-and-misses, but because they are now becoming balls that are causing him to fall behind on batters more often and, ultimately, causing him to walk them more.
Why are hitters not chasing Liriano’s slider anymore? Well, that I don’t have a good answer for yet. It could be that not only is he dealing with extra patience on pitches that used to be whiffs, but that his command in general is off. His fastball is being thrown for balls more often, being made contact with more often, and being hit for hard contact and home runs much more often—suggesting that perhaps his command is missing (something that manager Clint Hurdle has suggested might be happening at times this year). Breaking balls play off fastballs, so if we’re looking for a sliver of optimism here it could be this: if Liriano’s struggles have been a cascade from some generally bad command, affecting the fastball which then affects the slider, fixing that could fix everything. That’s easier said than done, though.
(And now that I’ve written this and dug into it a little more, I find that August Fagerstrom at FanGraphs has found much the same thing)
BABIP OVERACHIEVER OF THE WEEK
Xander Bogaerts, SS, Boston Red Sox
It seems like every week I’m writing up a guy like this, so we might as well make it a category. I was going to go with “THE HITTER I BELIEVE IS PLAYING OVER HIS HEAD (AND AM SUPPORTED BY MATH IN MY BELIEF) THAT I MIGHT AS WELL JUST BE INVITING HATERS AND TROLLS TO TELL ME HOW STUPID AND WRONG I AM ABOUT”, but it didn’t quite have the same ring.
Many are treating Bogaerts as a stud based on his .393 wOBA, but as I mentioned with Jackie Bradley a couple weeks ago, we have to pay attention to how a player is arriving at that wOBA. In the case of Bogaerts, a big part of it has been a .409 BABIP—good for third in all of baseball—which has been an even more ridiculous .440 this past week. Considering that BABIP takes two and a half years’ worth of data to stabilize, we simply can’t trust that number on its face, especially since Fenway Park is the second best in baseball for BABIP. (But before you use that as a reason why it’s legitimate, citing the high BABIPs of other Red Sox for additional support, know that those guys are also overachieving. At most we could expect 20 points of BABIP to be added by Fenway, and even that might be a bit generous. Consider that Mark Reynolds is right behind Bogaerts for fourth in baseball with a .400 BABIP, and you’d never try to argue that’s legitimate even with Coors as a home park.)
There’s no doubt that Bogaerts is a good hitter, but he’s not a great one. I’m not paying over $5,000 for him on DraftKings or $4,000 on FanDuel when I can pay less for a better shortstop like Carlos Correa or Corey Seager (or Trevor Story in Coors, once he starts hitting again) or just punt the position.
RISING… BUT NOT QUITE DFS-VIABLE YET
Byron Buxton, OF, Minnesota Twins
Buxton is all sorts of enigmatic. He’s been one of baseball’s best prospects for years, drawing rave reviews from scouts, but he’s been much more about the tools and upside than he’s been about actual production. He has 80-grade speed that he’s reached his potential for, but while he’s long been projected for a plus “future” hit and power tool, his “present” hit and power tools have always left something to be desired. Between last year and the start of this year, he posted a terrible .243 wOBA in 187 major league plate appearances, which shouldn’t come as a huge surprise considering how quickly he rose through the minors, accumulating just 271 PA at Double-A and 59 PA at Triple-A before earning his first call-up.
He was demoted earlier this year, crushed Triple-A, and was called back up on May 31. Since then, he’s gone 10-for-22 with a walk, a steal, and three extra-base hits, causing some pings on the radar of DFSers. I’m not ready to call Buxton anything better than a below-average hitter right now, and considering that he hits ninth for Minnesota he’s simply not a cash game option. But the tools are there, and if he continues to hit, he could find his way to the leadoff spot in short order, which could make him appealing. There is more talent in Minnesota’s lineup than their 2016 team stats indicate (especially once Miguel Sano returns), and adding an effective Buxton to the top of the order could begin to push them into sneaky DFS viability. Let’s keep an eye on this.
RISING… BUT STILL UNDERPRICED
Robbie Grossman, OF, Minnesota Twins
Grossman doesn’t have the tools of Buxton, but what he does have is a strangle-hold on the number-five spot in the Twins lineup. It’s also much easier to say that he resembles an average major league hitter right now. You may remember him from when he was a borderline prospect for the Astros and was given a chance at a starting job but kind of dropped the ball, but there’s not a ton of competition in Minnesota, and he’s really been hitting: a nearly .450 wOBA in the two and a half weeks since his call-up with a career high 30% hard hit rate. He’s been running less and less over the past couple years and has yet to attempt a steal in the majors this year, but there is definitely speed dormant here.
Grossman’s $2,800 FanDuel salary is a little high, but $2,600 on DraftKings is quite reasonable for a decent number-five hitter when the matchup is right. He’s a switch-hitter who hits right-handers much better than lefties, and he’ll get to face a couple weak ones this week in Tom Koehler and Rick Porcello at home in hitter-friendly Target Field.
Logan Morrison, 1B, Tampa Bay Rays
Remember the first couple weeks of the season when THE BAT was obsessed with Logan Morrison? Well, it might have just been a little early. Part of it was the price, part of it was hitting second, and part of it was that it thought LoMo had talent. He, of course, was horrendous, posting a .183 wOBA without a single home run through the middle of May. In the three weeks since, however, he’s posted a wOBA around .500, punctuating by hitting home runs six and seven on Sunday. His hard contact rate has remained steady throughout (part of the reason for THE BAT’s stubborn optimism), but he’s no longer pounding the ball into the ground, hitting many more line drives and flyballs. This is part of the reason that the home runs have now returned. In fact, his home run rate is the highest of his career.
LoMo certainly isn’t a great hitter. Even calling him a good one might be stretching it. But he’s certainly above-average, and given a big true platoon split it would be reasonable to say he’s good against righties, at the very least. Hitting cleanup for the Rays of late, he’s once again an appealing option in the right matchups, especially with a reasonable price tag: $3,800 on DraftKings, $3,000 on FanDuel. LoMo will very much be in play early this week when the Rays visit Chase Field.
FALLING… AND UNDERPRICED
Eduardo Rodriguez, SP, Boston Red Sox
Rodriguez made a splash last year, posting a 3.85 ERA and 3.92 FIP in 22 starts with the Sox. An injury in spring training led him to be placed on the DL to start the year, and he finally made his debut this week. He pitched solidly enough in his first start before getting obliterated today: 5 runs in 5.2 innings without a single strikeout. This was, however, against Toronto.
Here’s my take on Rodriguez: I’ve never been a big fan of his fastball. It’s fast, sitting around 95, but it doesn’t get a lot of life. His change-up is a plus pitch, though, and his slider is fringe-plus. Good control helps his stuff play up, and he’s a solidly above-average pitcher in my book.
Rodriguez has been very well-priced as an SP2 on DraftKings—$6,100 in his first start, $7200 in his second—and would make for a quality play in the right matchups at that price. Ideally those matchups would be on the road, away from Fenway. He’ll get the Twins in Target this week—not perfect, but with definite upside.