RotoGrinders Matchup of the Week: Week 9

by RotoGrinders Last Updated 2016-11-04 14:51:03

Welcome to the RotoGrinders Matchup of the Week! Each week, this piece will pull out one matchup that stands out to us on the weekend’s slate.

Below, you will find JMToWin’s writeup of this game from his NFL Edge – the most in-depth, DFS-specific piece in the industry, in which every game is broken down from top to bottom in a DFS-specific manner – and you will also find assorted thoughts from some of the other, top minds in Daily Fantasy Sports.

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JMToWin’s NFL Edge

Saints at 49ers

Vegas-Implied Total: Saints 28.75, 49ers 24.25

KEY MATCHUPS:

49ers Run D – 30th DVOA / 32nd Yards allowed per carry
Saints Run O – 14th DVOA / 28th Yards per carry

49ers Pass D – 20th DVOA / 16th Yards allowed per pass attempt
Saints Pass O – 4th DVOA / 8th Yards per pass attempt

Saints Run D – 28th DVOA / 18th Yards allowed per carry
49ers Run O – 4th DVOA / 19th Yards per carry

Saints Pass D – 28th DVOA / 29th Yards allowed per pass attempt
49ers Pass O – 32nd DVOA / 32nd Yards per pass attempt

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Since scoring 28 and 27 points the first two weeks of the season, the 49ers have scored 18, 17, 21, 16, and 17. Vegas projects them at 24.25, which speaks more to how bad the Saints’ defense has been than to anything else.

As we know, the 49ers play at the fastest pace in the NFL. What may go overlooked is that the Saints play at the NFL’s fourth-fastest pace. New Orleans ranks second in plays per game, while San Francisco ranks second in opponent plays allowed per game. It’s tough to get excited about San Francisco in any matchup, but it’s easy to get excited about New Orleans in this spot.

We’ll start with the home team – clearing the 49ers out of the way first. The 49ers should get off a good 65+ plays this week, but they have the third lowest passing play percentage in the NFL – choosing to run the ball on roughly half their offensive opportunities. This should leave only about 30 to 35 pass attempts for Colin Kaepernick (who, frankly, is at risk of an in-game benching at some point in the upcoming weeks), and while the matchup seems pristine, we should note that the 49ers have faced a pair of bottom-half pass defenses in Kaep’s two starts, and he has failed to complete even 50% of his passes in either game. The issue is not matchup; the issue, instead, is accuracy, which Kaepernick simply does not have. As great as the matchup is on paper, you are still stuck with nothing but “high-risk tourney fliers” in the receiving game, as Quinton Patton, Torrey Smith, and Jeremy Kerley should all be limited to seven or fewer targets, and at least a couple of those targets – for each guy – are likely to be uncatchable. In a low-volume passing attack with an inaccurate passer and a pretty wide target distribution, I will plan to stay away myself.

Kaepernick himself is actually interesting, given his tendency to take off and run. He legitimately has a six or seven point floor with his legs. If he scores a touchdown, he becomes a really nice play. The issue, of course, is that he does not add much additional upside through the air, which still limits his overall upside. It’s not as if he is particularly likely to bring home a 25-point game – and while you don’t need that from him at his affordable salary, you can still find similarly-priced QBs who offer more upside.

The other part of the 49ers’ run game is more intriguing. If Carlos Hyde misses again, I want no part of guessing on who will see the most production in a committee, but if Hyde starts, he should be a lock for around 20 touches. And while the 49ers do not create many red zone opportunities, the Saints have allowed the most rushing touchdowns in the NFL. This raises the touchdown ceiling for both Hyde and Kaep.

After last Sunday concluded, I figured Mark Ingram would be one of the top plays this weekend. Surely, the Saints would reinstall him as the lead back, and he would run angry (in the best running back matchup in football) after getting benched last week. I still think that’s a likely scenario, but Sean Payton has come out to say that Tim Hightower has earned more work, and he is just enough of a dunce to stick to this – splitting the work between Hightower and his more talented back. With the Saints running so many plays, and the 49ers allowing so many plays, we legitimately could see 75 offensive snaps for the Saints. And while the Saints rank fourth in passing play percentage, with a 65% distribution of passes, that number should drop a bit if the Saints grab a big lead. We could easily see around 30 rushes for the Saints this week, which could still create enough opportunity for 16 to 18 carries for Ingram and 12 to 14 carries for Hightower. A lot of guesswork goes into all this, making each guy a risky play, but ultimately, I still like Ingram this week, and I really do not even mind Hightower.

While I do not expect this game to stay as close as Vegas expects, I do like that the game is on the road for the Saints, as this should pull some attention off the Saints, and should increase the chances of the game staying close. If the game stays close, of course, this opens the opportunity for Drew Brees to throw another 40+ pass attempts (as he has in five of seven games already this year), and to post big numbers at low ownership. While most of the attention will be on Andrew Luck versus Aaron Rodgers among those paying up at quarterback and “chasing a shootout,” it is worth noting that this game (according to Vegas) projects to have a similar total to that game, and projects to be more closely-contested. I like Luck and Rodgers a lot as well (we’ll get to that in a moment), but there is every reason to like Brees just as much.

Moreover (as always when the Saints are on the road), I still have a lot of interest in the Saints’ receivers, as others will look away. Michael Thomas is one of my favorite plays on the weekend, as he is truly the number one receiver on the Saints – leading the team in targets over the last five games, and leading the team in red zone targets on the season – and yet, the public still views him as an unpredictable piece. While Brandin Cooks is more valuable at the Superdome – where his speed is deathly on the turf – and while Willie Snead is generally a lower-upside option, I honestly like all these guys. They should all see seven or more targets, and all of them have upside in what should be a high-scoring, fast-paced game against a bad 49ers defense.

Plays I like in cash games: Drew Brees, Michael Thomas
Plays I like in tourneys: Both of the above, plus: Mark Ingram, Tim Hightower, Brandin Cooks, Willie Snead, Coby Fleener, Colin Kaepernick

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