Weekend Betting Guide: Picks for NBA, MLB, College Football, NFL Week 2 & More!

The first edition of the Weekend Betting Guide was a success, as our sports betting picks went 4-2-1, making for an eventful, and profitable, three days. We return this week with more College Football, more Premier League soccer, and of course Week 2 of the NFL season. Before we get to all of that, we have Game of 1 of the Western Conference Finals, plus a Friday night filled with home run props. Let’s get started.

Weekend Sports Betting Odds and Picks

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NBA Betting Picks: L.A. Lakers -7 vs. Denver Nuggets

The Nuggets are coming off an emotional series win over the Clippers and now get a date with Anthony Davis and the Lakers. They’re a great team, but the transition from a high-stakes Game 7 to this Game 1 has let-down spot written all over it. The Lakers have had a few extra much needed days to rest up before this game and I think they’ll come out and beat the Nuggets to death tonight. Lakers 121, Nuggets 93.

For a more in-depth look at the Western Conference Finals matchup, check out Matt Schmitto’s Nuggets vs. Lakers Betting Preview: Odds, Picks and Predictions.

Friday MLB Home Run Prop Bets

My system is always the same here: Pick a pitcher who wants to get shelled and find the opposing batters who are willing to oblige. My key stats are hard ontact and fly ball rates. These guys fit the mold tonight:

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Brewers vs. Danny Duffy
Duffy gives up a ton of fly balls (43%) and enough hard contact (39%) against right handed bats that I have to have some interest in the Brewers righties:

Dodgers vs. Ryan Castellani
This is a pitcher who allows 43% fly balls pitching against the Dodgers with the wind blowing out at Coors Field. It’s a nightmare scenario for Castellani and a dream scenario for us. I truthfully think you can take any of these guys at any odds and they’ll be good bets, but these are my favorites (if two out of five hit homers, we’re profitable):

Rangers vs. Jaime Barria
Barria has a 46% fly ball rate and a 36% hard contact rate this season. He should be able to help a couple of these Rangers get the ball in the air. I love the odds on these three picks who should all get a decent number of plate appearances on the road in LA:

Giants vs. Chris Bassitt
Bassitt is an alright pitcher, but he gives up a nice combination of fly balls (43%) and hard contact (38%) to left-handed hitters. The Giants have a few lefties who can hit the ball hard with nice odds to homer tonight:

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Premier League Picks – Leeds (-160) vs. Fulham

If you watched any of the Leeds Liverpool game last Saturday, you saw that this Leeds team appears to be the real deal. They gave the defending champs a run for their money last week and should bury Fulham tomorrow morning. Plus the 10am EST start time is a nice excuse to start chugging beers before noon.

Note: I also love the +165 odds on West Ham +1 vs. Arsenal after a disappointing showing in their opener last week. Expect Michail Antonio to pour in anywhere from 1-6 goals.

For more soccer betting tips, check out our Premier League Betting Guide.

NHL Bets: Lightning (-160) vs. Stars

The conferences haven’t faced each other since the restart so it’s somewhat tough to compare these two teams, but I firmly believe the Lightning are just flat out better than the Stars. I think they’ll win fairly easily in Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Finals.

College Football Betting Picks: Pitt -21.5 vs. Syracuse

I loved these boys last week as 28-point favorites vs. Austin Peay and they won by 55. I love them even more this week as 21.5-point favorites vs. Syracuse. It’s going to take oddsmakers some time to adjust for how good this Pitt Panthers football team is. I’ll continue to take advantage in the meantime.

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NFL Week 2 Lines and Betting Picks

Colts -3 vs. Vikings
The Vikings just let up a million passing yards to Aaron Rodgers and now have to face the Colts on the fast track in Indy. T.Y. Hilton and Parris Campbell are going to go nuts in this game and I expect the Colts to win relatively easily.

Jets +7 vs. 49ers
I’m kind of disgusted with myself for picking this, but I have to. 80% of the public is on the 49ers and I think last week’s Jets’ loss was more a result of the Bills being great than the Jets being bad. This game kicks off at 10am San Francisco time and I think it ends up being closer than anybody expects.

Eagles -1 vs. Rams
This pick has a lot in common with the Jets pick. It’s a west coast team traveling east, the public loves the rams, and I think the Washington Football Team might actually be better than people expect. The Eagles didn’t look great last week but I am pretty confident they’ll bounce back here.

Washington Football Team +7 vs. Cardinals
This line has overreaction written all over it. The Cardinals are definitely good, but I don’t think they need to be 7-point favorites here, and I think the Washington Football Team might surprise some people. They have one of the best defensive fronts in the NFL, which should help them keep this game close and cover the spread for another winning NFL betting week.

Chargers +9 vs. Chiefs
Last but not least, we have the pick I’m most likely to regret next week. The Chiefs are absolutely incredible offensively, but this is a division game on the road against a Chargers team with something to prove. 90% of the public likes the Chiefs here. I’m a part of the 10% who thinks this will be a 1-score game.

Image Credit: USA Today Sports Images

About the Author

  • Matt Shanahan (mshanahan)

  • Matt Shanahan is an engineer by trade and firmly believes in data-driven analytics. He grew up in Pennsylvania and graduated from the University of Pittsburgh. His betting strategy is to develop theories, create models to test those theories, and then collect data to see what works and what doesn’t.

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