The Past Is Prologue: Week 3
So imagine – you’ve always been pretty good at your season-long fantasy football league. Playing with some friends and co-workers, you’ve put together a pretty nice profit over a handful of seasons.
You decide to take that profit and start playing in paid season-long leagues against strangers. This feels bizarre to you (and insane to your wife) at first. But you enter a few leagues and come out ahead, so you roll it all over into next season with even more leagues. It goes without saying that by the following season, you’re managing 67 season-long teams each named after some variation of nicknames for your dogs – Barkley’s Battalion, Squirrel Patrol, etc – and you realize that even though you’ve accumulated a nice five-figure profit, you’re starting to lose focus on each team’s positional needs, not to mention your foothold on reality.
Then you find out about daily fantasy sports.
This should be easy.
But it’s not. Sure, it’s a time-saver compared to managing season-long teams, and you really can’t think of a 68th canine-relevant nickname celebrating the Puppy Brigade anyway, but you’re not making money. In fact, you’ve burned through about half of your profit from season-long when you realize that daily fantasy is a different beast entirely. So you find RotoGrinders, start analyzing what you can do differently, what you can do better, learn more about the concept of variance than you ever hoped, and things start to turn around.
You win a small tournament. Then you win a big tournament – that thrill of seeing your DraftKings wheel or your green FanDuel martian-robot icon zooming all the way to the right of your phone screen is something you’ll never forget. Then you take down another big tournament, this time in a different sport. You look up and realize that you’re the 20th ranked grinder in the TPOY standings, and then RotoGrinders contacts you, and asks if you’d like to write an article each week.
How could you say no?
So here I am. Each week I’ll be taking a look at a tournament from the previous week that I entered, and I’ll be comparing the winning lineup to one of my lineups, with the goal of generating ideas for the upcoming week. If what’s past is prologue, we’ll be taking down some tournaments together. Or at the very least, we’ll be kicking around some early ideas for our next week’s lineups.
To start things off, this week I’ll be analyzing last week’s FanDuel $50K Sun NFL Flea Flicker (5 Entries Max). The winning lineup, out of 8,257 entries, was bubbleboy, with 181.12 points as seen below on the right. My highest entry (out of the maximum five allowed) clocked in at 17th place with 159.52 points.
Quarterback
Sometimes it’s best not to overthink things, and both my entry and bubbleboy’s settled on Cam Newton at QB. Cam’s Panthers entered last week with one of the highest implied point totals according to Vegas odds, and he is the centerpiece of his team’s offense. Four other QBs actually provided a better points-per-dollar return than Cam on FanDuel last week, but you only get one slot to earn points at QB, so I’d prefer to seek value at the other positions.
What QB can we find this week that is in a similar situation – high implied point total, centerpiece of the team’s offense, and even former #1 overall draft pick? With apologies to Carson Palmer ($8,200 FanDuel, $7,200 DraftKings) and his matchup against Buffalo, I’ll be taking a strong look at Andrew Luck ($8,700 FanDuel, $7,600 DraftKings) against the Chargers this week. Playing at home, in a close game with the highest Vegas point total on the Sunday-only slate (now the main slate on both FanDuel and DraftKings), against a San Diego defense that has allowed the fourth-highest number of passing yards this season, Luck should be in a position to finish with one of the highest QB scores this week.
Running Back
Here is where my lineup diverged from bubbleboy’s, to my detriment. Playing the chalk at RB with DeAngelo Williams (25.1% owned) and C.J. Anderson (36.6% owned), bubbleboy demonstrated that you don’t always need to find the underowned diamond in the rough the take down a tournament with over 8,000 entries.
While we both agreed that DeAngelo Williams would get enough usage to justify his price ($7,600), bubbleboy chose C.J. Anderson against a weak Indianapolis defense while I tried to find value with Rashad Jennings ($6,300) in what I expected to be a high-scoring game against New Orleans. Who are the chalk running backs this week? I expect that after two strong weeks to open the season, DeAngelo Williams (now $8,800 on FanDuel, $7,500 DraftKings) will again appear in a large percentage of lineups, joined by David Johnson ($8,400 FanDuel, $7,700 DraftKings) facing a Buffalo defense that appeared in shambles against the Jets last Thursday.
What about a lower-priced Rashad Jennings-type option? I wouldn’t mind stacking Frank Gore ($5,700 FanDuel, $5,000 DraftKings) with Andrew Luck. QB-RB stacks aren’t the norm, but it’s not a bad option if the RB also catches passes, and the Chargers defense gave up 7 receptions for 129 yards to RB Spencer Ware in Week 1, plus another 8 receptions to TJ Yeldon last week (although admittedly for only 10 yards).
Who else fits the C.J. Anderson mold who isn’t completely chalk? I’d take a flyer on Ezekiel Elliott ($8,100 FanDuel, $6,900 DraftKings). I don’t think he’ll be a chalk play after fumbling twice this past week, and I have the feeling that when you are the number 4 pick in the draft and the GM is also the owner of the team, you’re going to get more than one chance. Like Anderson last week, he’ll be playing at home as a large favorite, and has an inexperienced QB that isn’t known for downfield passing. As a bonus, it looks like he will be up against an offense that is starting either Brian Hoyer or Jay Cutler, so there is the possibility of Dallas getting a short field on multiple possessions.
Wide Receiver
At wide receiver, bubbleboy and I both paired our QB with his top WR, in this case Kelvin Benjamin. The most obvious analogy if we are going with Andrew Luck at QB is T.Y. Hilton ($7,400 FanDuel, $6,800 DraftKings). Following Benjamin, bubbleboy opted for value plays Travis Benjamin ($6,100) and Tajae Sharpe ($6,000), while I chose high-priced option Julio Jones ($9,300) and Jarvis Landry ($6,500). Looking forward to this week, following the theme of a possible shootout in Indianapolis, Travis Benjamin remains a top value play even at an increased price of $6,900.
For our third wide receiver slot this week, picking another repeat selection from last week, Jarvis Landry (now at $7,000 FanDuel, $6,600 DraftKings) still represents value in a matchup with Cleveland that Arian Foster may miss, and pairs nicely with our defense (see below) given his punt returning abilities. If we’re looking for an even cheaper option, Phillip Dorsett ($6,000 FanDuel, $4,400 DraftKings) should see increased targets with Donte Moncrief sidelined, and could replace T.Y. Hilton or pair as part of a QB – WR – WR stack.
Tight End
At tight end, bubbleboy opted for Delanie Walker while I opted for Jesse James. It worked out well for both of us, as both players were top-10 tight ends for both points and value in a week with relatively little tight end scoring.
For this week, I’d argue Delanie Walker (now $6,900 FanDuel, $5,000 DraftKings) is an even better play even though his cost has risen, facing off at home against a Raiders team that just allowed a combined 10 catches and 180 yards to Falcons tight ends this past week. For possibilities stacking the Colts-Chargers game, Antonio Gates ($6,000 FanDuel, $4,600 DraftKings) and Dwayne Allen ($6,100 FanDuel, $3,800 DraftKings) are clearly in play, and Jack Doyle ($5,000 FanDuel, $2,500 DraftKings) could even work for those in very large tournaments.
Defense
When selecting defenses, bubbleboy and I both went with home teams that were heavily favored, and it worked out for both of us. For this week, the Miami Dolphins defense ($4,600 FanDuel, $3,000 DraftKings) will surely be a popular choice facing rookie Cody Kessler and the Cleveland Browns, but as this exercise has shown, making the chalk pick can still win a big tournament. Potential pivots include paying up for the Seattle defense ($5,400 FanDuel, $4,100 DraftKings) at home against San Francisco, or for a more contrarian option, the Dallas defense ($4,600 FanDuel, $2,500 DraftKings) against Jay Cutler, Brian Hoyer, and the Chicago Bears on Sunday Night.
Kicker
I’m not sure how much thought either bubbleboy or I put into our kicking selections of Nick Novak and Matt Prater, respectively, but they were both lower-priced home favorites playing in stadiums with a dome or retractable roof. Dan Bailey ($4,700 FanDuel, $0 DraftKings since they sensibly exclude the kicker position) and Adam Vinatieri ($4,700 FanDuel) both match those requirements this upcoming week.
Congrats to PatJZ80 (bubbleboy) on his winning entry and good luck to everyone this upcoming week! Feel free to politely let me know what you think in the comments section below, and follow me on Twitter @jbresl for more thoughts each week.