The Past is Prologue: Week 5
In last week’s article, we covered my win in the FanDuel Week 3 $250K NFL Rush (Thu-Mon). Each week my goal is to cover a large tournament that I entered, with an analysis of the winning lineup versus my highest placing lineup, along with possible strategies and lessons that we can incorporate into a lineup for the upcoming week.
Obviously this is a little bit easier and more enjoyable if I finish in first place like last week, and I was hoping to have a repeat performance to report on with the $5 NFL Playboy Qualifier #10 (Thu-Mon) this week. Going into Sunday night, things were looking good. Sitting in 10th place with not one but two players (Spencer Ware and Travis Kelce) remaining in the Sunday night game, I only needed 15 points to take over first place.
Of course the Chiefs were shut down for most of the game, which quickly got out of hand. With just a few points between Kelce and Ware, I had only moved up to 8th by late in the fourth quarter of a 43-7 blowout. Then came a delicious sequence of fantasy goodness by Kansas City.
Yes, after handing the ball off to my running back three consecutive times, Andy Reid and the Chiefs called a timeout with 8 seconds left in the fourth quarter of a 43-7 game. After the timeout, which I presume was to check the standings of the FanDuel Playboy Qualifier #10 (Thu – Mon), they threw a touchdown – to the tight end who I also had rostered. There was much celebration in the Squirrel Patrol household as dreams of playboy logos on my profile page and a trip to Los Angeles in December took hold.
Not the final standings
Unfortunately, those dreams were short lived. Creeping up behind me in the standings was suddenly johnphil82, who had rostered not only Kelce, but also Chiefs QB Alex Smith. I wonder if he read my article last week? In any case, down only 8 points, johnphil82 still had Jerick McKinnon left in the Monday Night game. Seventeen points by McKinnon on Monday Night Football later, I was left sitting in second place out of 2,883 entries. Congratulations to johnphil82, and good luck at the Live Finals in December.
The painful drop from first to second in qualifier prizes
Now, let’s take a look at the first and second place rosters to see what lessons we can gain for next week.
The first and second place rosters
Quarterback
At quarterback, I chose Blake Bortles against a weak Indianapolis defense playing in London, while johnphil82 chose Alex Smith against Pittsburgh. At first I was surprised to see Alex Smith on the winning team given that Matt Ryan threw for over 500 yards, but the results make some sense. The key to winning this past week was rostering the top-performing (and expensive) wide receivers, so in some tournaments, an entry that saved salary at QB took first place if that meant rostering two of A.J. Green (in Thursday tournaments), Julio Jones, and Antonio Brown. Looking ahead to this week, some popular and pricey options will be Tom Brady ($8,700 FD) returning as a large favorite against Cleveland and Aaron Rodgers ($9,100 FD) against the Giants in Lambeau Field. Like johnphil82’s winning gamble on Alex Smith against the Steelers, however, I’ll start our team this week by looking to save some money with Ryan Fitzpatrick ($6,900 FD) against Pittsburgh.
Running Back
Winning a tournament sometimes requires contrarian thinking, and johnphil82 displayed this by picking Le’Veon Bell. Game script will often imply that you shouldn’t take a running back facing your quarterback – if the opposing team is grinding it out with their running game, there is less time for the opposing quarterback to air it out and accumulate points of his own. Sometimes, however, the value for a particular running back can override this concern, and Le’Veon’s price of only $8,300 while returning from suspension was too good to pass up. Still seeing value with Le’Veon’s price only slightly higher this week at $8,600, I’ll select Le’Veon as the first RB on this week’s team. Jerick McKinnon ($6,200 FD) and Melvin Gordon ($7,700 FD) also look like popular RB plays, but has anyone figured out why Frank Gore ($6,500 FD) is still so cheap on FanDuel after scoring touchdowns in three consecutive weeks? Looking to get exposure to a few different high scoring games, I’ll select Frank Gore as the second RB while eyeing the 47.5 line against Chicago in Indianapolis.
Wide Receiver
My entry showed the most overlap with the first place entry at wide receiver, as we both rostered Julio Jones and AJ Green. For the third WR, I matched Blake Bortles with Allen Hurns hoping that Indianapolis CB Vontae Davis would force Bortles to look at his secondary options, while johnphil82 chose Michael Crabtree, who scored 3 touchdowns and proved to be the difference in our match-up. This week, I’ll start by pairing QB Ryan Fitzpatrick with his top WR, Brandon Marshall ($7,600 FD), who managed a dozen targets last week against Seattle with teammate Eric Decker out indefinitely with a rotator cuff injury. Seeking cheaper exposure to the quarterbacks expected to score the most points this weekend, I’ll also add Jordy Nelson ($8,400 FD) and Julian Edelman ($7,000) to our tournament team.
Tight End
At tight end, johnphil82 and I both selected Travis Kelce and celebrated his prototypical garbage-time score at the end of the Sunday Night game. This week, starting to run low on salary, I’m looking at cheaper options such as Zach Miller ($5,400 FD), Dennis Pitta ($5,500 FD), and Kyle Randolph ($5,500 FD) before ultimately selecting Hunter Henry ($5,400 FD) seeking exposure to the Oakland at San Diego game.
Defense
With defense, I’m ideally looking for an offensive team that is in a state of chaos, and then taking the other side. With one of the lowest projected point totals this week, the Cleveland Browns once again match our criteria so I’ll select the New England Patriots ($4,800 FD) who are sure to be a popular choice.
Kicker
Most weeks, I select kicker last, eyeing appealing options based on my remaining salary. This week, I’ll finish the team off with Brandon McManus ($4,700) kicking at home in the thin air of Denver.
How does our final team look? I’m sure I’ll enter it in a handful of tournaments and hope for a shootout in Pittsburgh, but it can be difficult to tell this early in the week. The techniques used in constructing the team however – seeking exposure to several high-scoring games, pairing a quarterback with his highest-volume wide receiver, selecting a kicker playing at high altitude with our leftover money, and picking on poor offenses with our defense – are always in play as winning strategies.
Good luck to everyone this week, give me a follow on Twitter @jbresl, and I hope you won’t blame me for rooting for some snow in LA this December (unless I win one of the remaining Playboy qualifiers).