Three Sneaky Home Run Calls: Monday, August 12th
Nothing accrues more fantasy points than home runs, this we know. But what is even better than rostering a player who goes yard? Rostering a player who goes yard that not a lot of other DFS players have in their lineups. The goal of this article is to find some sneaky home run calls with the help of some of our most useful RotoGrinders tools, such as MLB Weather, PlateIQ, and MLB Ballpark Factors.
HOME RUN CALLS
1) Matt Adams, Washington Nationals
Opposing pitcher: Anthony DeSclafani
FanDuel price tag: $2,800
FanDuel position: C/1B
My initial thinking is that with a Coors Field game, the Yankees against the Orioles terrible pitching staff, and the Astros (wait, they scored how many runs on Saturday??) against the White Sox, this matchup in Great American Ball Park might fly under the radar somewhat. And Adams should be one of our first looks for a home run on the Nats side.
After all, hitting dingers is kind of his thing. Of his 57 hits this season, 17 of them are home runs. Against RHP, he has a massive 47.7% flyball rate. Add in a 42.3% hard hit rate, and you start to see why he has a .260 ISO in the split this season. DeSclafani gives up plenty of power in this split in his own right, which is evident by a .252 ISO allowed in 254 plate appearances.
With great hitting conditions (according to our weather page) in an already friendly hitters ball park, Adams has a great shot at sending one out tonight. Sure there is some strikeout risk and pop-up risk, but we should absolutely be willing to take that on considering Adams is only $2,800.
2) Rafael Devers, Boston Red Sox
Opposing pitcher: Zach Plesac
FanDuel price tag: $4,100
FanDuel position: 3B
This is another game that may go overlooked on this eight-game Monday slate. With 24 home runs on the season already, it obviously isn’t going to be ‘sneaky’ if Devers hits one out tonight. But when we look at all of the other third base options on the slate tonight, Devers as a DFS option can absolutely be considered sneaky.
Let’s think about it. We have Nolan Arenado in Coors Field, Eduardo Escobar in Coors Field, and Alex Bregman against Dylan Cease. Those three alone should command a ton of ownership, not to mention all of Anthony Rendon, Manny Machado, Eugenio Suarez, Jose Ramirez, and Vladimir Guerrero are on this slate too. There is no doubting third base is the most loaded position Monday night.
That being said, Devers has as good of a shot of any of those guys of going yard tonight. As you can see in our Ballpark Factors, Progressive Field is well above average for lefty home runs. And while Plesac has done a great job limiting hard contact to lefties this season, Devers is on a different level.
According to PlateIQ, more than half of Devers’s batted balls against RHP this season have resulted in an exit velocity of 95 MPH or higher. The guy just hits rockets, plain and simple. It is crazy to think he isn’t even 23 years old yet! When searching for home runs at third base tonight, make sure you don’t overlook Devers.
3) Rougned Odor, Texas Rangers
Opposing pitcher: Neil Ramirez (opener; either Brock Stewart or Zack Godley are rumored to be the long-man)
FanDuel price tag: $3,200
FanDuel position: 2B
Continuing my apparent theme for this article of ‘games that will go overlooked’, we have the Rangers heading into Toronto to face the Blue Jays. Is the Rogers Centre as good of a hitters park as Globe Life Park in Arlington? No, of course not, but it is still favorable for hitters.
And when Rougie hits one out, they are often no-doubters. A brief look in PlateIQ at the ‘Average Air Distance’ for this projected Rangers lineup shows us that Odor averages 322 feet on his batted balls that are classified as either low line drives, high line drives, or fly balls. No one else in this projected lineup even cracks 300 feet.
That obviously brings with it all sorts of risk because of the boom/bust nature. Strikeouts? Yep, Rougie has those, as he is up to a 30% K% against RHP this season. He has a high infield flyball rate as well (11.7%) because of his swing.
But again, if we are truly searching for home runs, this has to be one of our first stops at second base. And a $3,200 price tag goes a long way to mitigating a lot of that risk. Whomever it is that Odor sees tonight in this bad Toronto bullpen, he is going to have a decent chance at hitting one out.
You can follow Andy Means on Twitter @ameansy